Leans for Tuesday 1/27/09 CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Day 2

[hockeytown11]

I have 3 puck plays,do what you want with them

Philly/Florida over 5.5
Ottawa +110
Washington/Boston over 5.5

[w9ii9]

Nice. Some smart people are on Baylor tonight. But I like Purdue tonight too. Wisconsin recently owned the Big Ten, but not this year. Good luck CK and everyone else.

[hockeytown11]

madness AVILLA always go over 2.5

[ANDYW15]

I have 3 puck plays,do what you want with them

Philly/Florida over 5.5
Ottawa +110
Washington/Boston over 5.5

The more I look at it, the more i love the Philly/Florida over.

[solobass]

Another game that I like to go under is Kentucky at Ole Miss. The under is 4-0-1 in games below the Dixie line, and the under is 7-8 overall in Kentucky's last 8 contests, and 4-3 in Ole Miss home contests. Maryland suffered it's worse loss in school history to Duke, so look out for them to blow away a one dimensional attack by Boston College. I think that the prop for Tyrese Rice's scoring total would be an interesting option as well, as JohnMorr hooked me up with this typeof play for Boston College's games. He dominates their scoring unlike too many players on a squad in the NCAA. I do think that they will shock one or two teams in the ACC Tournament, and may have an outside shot at a NIT bid if they play their cards right.

One thing that I am definitely looking forward to is when Niagra gets into their conference tourney. After some early success, they have been burning holes in the lining of their backers, and I think that they have become fade material. But they are a deep team and what I think will happen is that when they get into the conference tournament, they will turn on the afterburners and start playing in form again, specailly now that bettors have become comfortale with laying against their number with a casual attitude.

I wholeheartedly agree on Niagra, people have looked at them as an automatic ATM recently and the books have certainly caught up on that one.

[ANDYW15]

Aston Villa in a lean play as well as they are still close to the top of the group, but go lighter in this game then the other 2.

Aston Villa would my strongest pick of the lot. Portsmouth are in a complete mess at the moment, losing 2-0 to a championship side on the weekend and have zero form at the moment. Villa are flying high and away from home thrive on the fast breaks. Portsmouth won't be able to compete imo. +120 represents far better value than the man utd game.

[hockeytown11]

I like TB too,havent clicked it yet but thinking real hard,Montreal had half its team at AS game and might be ripe for letdown flying to play a weak TB team. I can see a less than enthusiastic Habs team taking TB lightly,at +120 I may take a shot,still thinking on that one.

[ANDYW15]

I like TB too,havent clicked it yet but thinking real hard,Montreal had half its team at AS game and might be ripe for letdown flying to play a weak TB team. I can see a less than enthusiastic Habs team taking TB lightly,at +120 I may take a shot,still thinking on that one.

I have gone with TB too for those exact reasons... TB were at least scoring before the break and with Montreal hosting and having half its team at the all star game, while Tampa were having a nice easy skate, I will take the team with the better preparation at +120.

[hockeytown11]

Ashley Young is out for AV

[ANDYW15]

Ashley Young is out for AV

But Heskey making his debut and Luke Young back I like Villa's chances.

[Dfjay9]

Wisconsin isn't gonna have too many more home losses in the regular season at home, and with them coming into this game with 4 straight losses, Purdue has got their work cut out for them. They already have two losses at home this year to Texas and Minnesota. it's a tough place to play and the calls always go their way. For their part, Purdue has won 4 straight conference games. So this is a game of two teams going in different directions. I have to give the slight nod to the Badgers after the 4 conference losses. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and they will perorm at a peak level in this game. I say that the Badgers win this one by 8 points, gentlemen.

Purdue are too tough for Wisconsin. Their hopes are down, they streaking the wrong way. Tough time for wisky. I'm on Purdue.

[twitch66]

_________________
the kings played the cavs tough last year in cleav (3-2 su & ats last 5), and i look for much of the same this time around, as the cavs are likely to be very sluggish in their first home game off of a solid 4 game west coast trip.

-kings

i agree and was looking at athe kings... surely the better team. but why are cav's faored by as much as 14 ?

then again the lines looked all jacked-up today... Texas is an underdog in ncaa as well

[Hanger]

i agree and was looking at athe kings... surely the better team. but why are cav's faored by as much as 14 ?

then again the lines looked all jacked-up today... Texas is an underdog in ncaa as well

Was looking at this because I too thought +14 was too much for the Cavs to cover on the first game home after being out West. But....

Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Sacramento is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games on the road

[Smacksmiter]

Have a few plays locked in so far...

Miami Florida -1
Northeastern +8
Buffalo pk

All for $500 each... good luck.

Leans on Wyoming -8 and the over in Texas/Baylor but have not locked them in yet....someone has been driving down the Wyoming line...bit surprising...

[Mr Handicapable]

Northeastern +6.5

George Mason cut the lead to 1 late vs Va. Commonwealth and only lost by 5 w/one of their top 2-3 players unable to play! VC is only 3-7 ATS vs winning teams and they're basically a 1 man team which is easier to defend for a solid defensive team like Northeastern!

lonesome loser,

Go away! If we need some help handicapping cricket, croquet, or badminton then we'll get back with you!
You add NOTHING to this forum as I'm sure we all have enough haters in our lives already!

[twitch66]

Last night, before i saw any lines, i was liking:
kings over cavaliers
Austin peavey over east Kentucky
Indiana and Creighton over indiana- but line is too high
and
Purdue over wisconsin
_
but for reasons i don't understand, vegas is liking the underdogs and so i will stay away from those picks.
_
Vegas also likes baylor over texas... but i will to take Texas and the points on that one
_
the ncaa games i'm taking are:
Kentucky -8
George mason -12
Texas +2
_
my nba picks:
magic -9
nuggets -6
Lakers -11

[ploben]

Twitch is that you in the ava.? I want to party with you

[cocknocker]

I was asked by a reader why there is factionalism going on here in the NCAA threads, and what is so different between what the CK Mafia is about and what the other side is about, especially if both sides are so successful. So my good man, as promised, here is your response:

Respectfully, there are some philosophical differences going on here. One front man teaches, and breaks bread with those who are in his pack. Illustrating reverse line movements, their cause and effect, spreads and the correlating moneylines, money management, and the genius thereof, spotting false favorites, how to use a hook and a pont buy effectively, places to get valuable information and wagering tools, the art of fading yourself when wagering heavily, spending your vigorish money on yourself instead of giving it to the books, diversification, explaining the reasons as to why the pick is sound, and so on. The other leader just gives you a pick and that's it, no different than subscribing to an online pick service, and no explanation. Truly his followers are tailing him blindly, as on that page there is no interaction, and the followers have become just like their leader. If he leaves the fold, they will be clueless. The other front man leaves and now his following has the tools to continue on without his presence having been fulfilled and well studied with knowledge, and remain solid handicappers without the necessity to tail and blindly follow another man. One front man's credo is give a man a fish and he eats for one day, teach a man to fish and he eats forever and is empowered to feed his family and pass the lessons on for generations to come. The other just gives you a fish...

On one page you have a whole board full of genius and sound handicpping, insightful, well thought out and explained picks by ALL. No one is allowed to just give a pick without explanation. That is an abomination and members of the CK Mafia will ask, WHY did you come up with your picks? If the explanation is sound, sometimes the front man will back said pick and play it for himself, and also will give praise to that person win/lose/push, and if it is a loss will encouage that person to keep on trying and to not feel bad about his/her loss, and not berate him. The other side.. well here's another pick.

On one side you have dynamic wagering that is all year long, with self made styles and situational wagers that kill at NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NFL football, MLB and College baseball. Let alone the mastery over ANY postseason in ANY of the 3 major sports in America.

The other side, well, you already know...

That is the difference, and the difference is why. It's like Home Depot versus a second hand Goodwill Store. If the darn thing works when you get home, then you are relieved. If you buy something from Home Depot you already know it's gonna work because a professional explained to you what the product is and what is necessary for application purposes.

[hockeytown11]

I could care less how someone breaks a game down if they are wrong,and I also dont care how someone breaks a game down if they are right,results are all that matter to me,imo

[twitch66]

adding northeastern to my pick (large)
also adding to my wager on george mason making it (large)
I just can't help it... I like texas over baylor - gonna bump that one up too.


No ploben, that aint me... just like the pic something I like bout a hot chick sucking on a bong

[sportsguy04]

Lets try and keep this a NCAA discussion on todays games?

[dob08]

Have a few plays locked in so far...

Miami Florida -1
Northeastern +8
Buffalo pk

All for $500 each... good luck.

Leans on Wyoming -8 and the over in Texas/Baylor but have not locked them in yet....someone has been driving down the Wyoming line...bit surprising...

Where did you get miami at -1?

[khaliagent]

I was asked by a reader why there is factionalism going on here in the NCAA threads, and what is so different between what the CK Mafia is about and what the other side is about, especially if both sides are so successful. So my good man, as promised, here is your response:

Respectfully, there are some philosophical differences going on here. One front man teaches, and breaks bread with those who are in his pack. Illustrating reverse line movements, their cause and effect, spreads and the correlating moneylines, money management, and the genius thereof, spotting false favorites, places to get valuable information and wagering tools, the art of fading yourself when wagering heavily,spending your vigorish money on yourself instead of giving it to the books, diversification, explaining the reasons as to why the pick is sound, and so on. The other leader just gives you a pick and that's it, no different than subscribing to an online pick service, and no explanation. Truly his followers are tailing him blindly, as on that page there is no interaction, and the followers have become just like their leader. If he leaves the fold, they will be clueless. The other front man leaves and now his following has the tools to continue on without his presence having been fulfilled and well studied with knowledge, and remain solid handicappers without the necessity to tail and blindly follow another man. One front man's credo is give a man a fish and he eats for one day, teach a man to fish and he eats forever and is empowered to feed his family and pas the lessons on for generations to come. The other just gives you a fish...

On one page you have a whole board full of genius and sound handicpping, insightful, well thought out and explained picks by ALL. No one is allowed to just give a pick without explanation. That is an abomination and members of the CK Mafia will ask, WHY did you come up with your picks? If the explanation is sound, sometimes the front man will back said pick and play it for himself, and also will give praise to that person win/lose/push, and if it is a loss will encouage that person to keep on trying and to not feel bad about his/her loss, and not berate him. The other side.. well here's another pick.

On one side you have dynamic wagering that is all year long, with self made styles and situational wagers that kill at NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NFL football, MLB and College baseball. Let alone the mastery over ANY postseason in ANY of the 3 major sports in America.

The other side, well, you already know...

That is the difference, and the difference is why. It's like Home Depot versus a second hand Goodwill Store. If the darn thing works when you get home, then you are relieved. If you buy something from Home Depot you already know it's gonna work because a professional explained to you what the product is and what is necessary for application purposes.

cocknocker, I want to join forces with your faction...you are insigtful and dont just pick moneyline favs like curious and when those moneyline favs arent working anymore you dont take days off to regain your manhood after some bad pics.

[cocknocker]

I am of the minority on the Wisconsin/Purdue game, with 74% of bettors on Purdue, the line is creased with starch and still has Wisconsin as a 1 point favorite. The public has made their choice and they are rolling with Purdue, the only Big 10 team in the last 5 years that has a chance to have a two game winning streak at Wisconsin. I am still sayin that Wisconsin will beat Purdue with ease in this game. it is always a goo idea to take a team when their stock is low, and it looks as if 90% of this board is about to find out the hard way that you should not betwith a team that has won 3 or more conference games in a row, and you should ALWAYS wager with team that has lost 3 or more conference games in a row. It's all about the synergy. By taking a team that everyone perceives as being weak you can get jewels. the linemaker has already figured this out and responded by giving bait to the public in this game which has been bought hook line and sinker. Let's take a look at the past games beween these two teams at Wisconsin shall we?

Before Purdue's win last year in Wisconsin, the Badgers reeled off 3 straight victories in the games winning by an average of 17.5 points. Now true, Purdue has been covering in most of those games and the reason is not hard to find as Wisconsin was given spreads that were 12.5 on average. The linesmaker giving Wisconsin a spread this low is a gift, as obviously despite last year's setback they have Purdue's number in games played at home. The board has forced my hand on this one. At first i was going to let this game ride. but the response of the board has been overwhelmingly in Purdue's favor, which mirrors the public's perception of the game that this is a drive through fried chicken take out. I have to do this to you fellas. You leave me no other choice...

Wisconsin-1

[awhitejackson]

Gotta love Maryland -4.....Granted they have neither the talent nor will have the sucess of past turtle squads...But home they have been playing well.... Don't over-analyze the beatdown at Duke...A lot of good teams get beat down at Cameron. It has become the hardest place to play for years (though 33k fans at Carrier Dome might beg to differ)...BC beats up on UNC than loses next game at home to Harvard and have been up and down like this all year...you cant bet on this type of inconsistency...I will bet against it though with Maryland's recent prowess at home

[sportsguy04]

Locked my games in for tonight.

Texas +1

- Texas has Baylors number. Lot of people will disagree with me here, but I think Baylor is overrated. Texas plays D, while Baylor doesnt. This will be the difference.

Miami (FL) -2

Purdue +1
Buffalo PK
Boston College +6 (bought .5)
Northeastern +7 (bought .5)

[cocknocker]

I could care less how someone breaks a game down if they are wrong,and I also dont care how someone breaks a game down if they are right,results are all that matter to me,imo

So if the person supplying your picks were to leave, what would you do then to get those same results if you didn't learn from the person what made the picks you tailed so good? Think about that for a minute...

[Dana4U]

LAL & Bobcat Game

Dexter - I too have been pondering the Bobcats with the points over LAL. However, I'm concerned that the Bobs second line cannot stay strong with the Lakers second line. What this means is LAL is probably up 6 points at half, and then probably 10 by the end of the 3rd and then 16 by end of game.

To avoid this situation, I was contemplating taking the Bobcats and the Kings on a 2-team 5 point teaser. What do you think?

the bobcats are in a nice spot catching the lakers off of a big national tv win on sunday vs the spurs. they roll into staples, where they have won their last 2 visits straight up as 14 and 11 point dogs. they will again be catching about 13, and i look for larry brown to have these guys ready and take the roller coaster lakers down to the wire.

-bobcats
_________________
the kings played the cavs tough last year in cleav (3-2 su & ats last 5), and i look for much of the same this time around, as the cavs are likely to be very sluggish in their first home game off of a solid 4 game west coast trip.

-kings

[trilfer]

CK - any secret plays today?

[cocknocker]

Dana4U,

The Missus is taking the Bobcats today just so you'll know.

[cocknocker]

Northeastern is the wrong call, too BTW, 70% of bettors on their side, and the spread went up. That's not a good sign. Looks like the other guy is starting to pick games at night now that the issues have been brought up. Blind tailers beware. He has not answered any questions, but he has taken my bait obviously and made his first pick at night for the following day and no one else noticed that but me.

[hockeytown11]

I dont rely solely on others to make my picks,I use this board to make me more confident and maybe steal a pick or 2 from them that i didnt see. I research all my picks like everyone else but im not into doing big write ups when i post mainly cause im lazy

[twitch66]

I now have kentucky -9 and my bets on texas +1, northeastern +7 and george mason -11 are slightly larger.

I also made a 4 point teaser out of my 3 favorites....
George Mason -7½
Texas +5
Northeastern +10½


in addition I have my nba bets
Los Angeles Lakers -11
Denver Nuggets -6
Orlando Magic -9

BOL to all

[khaliagent]

I am of the minority on the Wisconsin/Purdue game, with 74% of bettors on Purdue, the line is creased with starch and still has Wisconsin as a 1 point favorite. The public has made their choice and they are rolling with Purdue, the only Big 10 team in the last 5 years that has a chance to have a two game winning streak at Wisconsin. I am still sayin that Wisconsin will beat Purdue with ease in this game. it is always a goo idea to take a team when their stock is low, and it looks as if 90% of this board is about to find out the hard way that you should not betwith a team that has won 3 or more conference games in a row, and you should ALWAYS wager with team that has lost 3 or more conference games in a row. It's all about the synergy. By taking a team that everyone perceives as being weak you can get jewels. the linemaker has already figured this out and responded by giving bait to the public in this game which has been bought hook line and sinker. Let's take a look at the past games beween these two teams at Wisconsin shall we?

Before Purdue's win last year in Wisconsin, the Badgers reeled off 3 straight victories in the games winning by an average of 17.5 points. Now true, Purdue has been covering in most of those games and the reason is not hard to find as Wisconsin was given spreads that were 12.5 on average. The linesmaker giving Wisconsin a spread this low is a gift, as obviously despite last year's setback they have Purdue's number in games played at home. The board has forced my hand on this one. At first i was going to let this game ride. but the response of the board has been overwhelmingly in Purdue's favor, which mirrors the public's perception of the game that this is a drive through fried chicken take out. I have to do this to you fellas. You leave me no other choice...

Wisconsin-1

easy money here....these guys think that vegas makes all these mistakes but they know what they are doing...i see a win by 10

[hockeytown11]

I also love Wisconsin,they dont lose at home,and yes I realize they have lost at home before,but Ill take them at home over just about anyone and Purdue doesnt count as someone I am afraid of.