Got both in bonus now. Will help us out!
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its like your system. you give a ray of hope saying your system works and the end result is dogshit. still love ya man!Comment -
Why are you even gonna post if in here if you're gonna call his system dog shitComment -
Ep can you get nat for me she messaged me and i cant navigate thanksComment -
N.Colorado-N.Arizona Under 78 [-110]Comment -
Un-fing-real shooting. Both were shooting over 50% in the 1st half. Now one over 60% and the other just under. Of course that would be no where to be seen if I needed an over to hit.
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i guess they can quit fouling, the game's over.Comment -
San Francisco-Portland Over 69.5 [-110]Comment -
USC Team Total Over 31.5 [-110]Comment -
Ugh. Two missed FTs. USC finishes with 30. FML. Nice script Gambling Gods.Comment -
Was on that one as well, pretty absurd with the travel call.. Thought we had itComment -
2.15.13
[2nd Half] Harvard-Penn Over 71.5 [-110]
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Cincinnati-Georgetown Over 63.5 [-110]Comment -
beware. I'm 2-8 on my last 10 cbb games and I'm tailing you on the Cincinatti-Georgetown play.Comment -
over looks good, it passes the 1st 5 min smell test. this one didn't show up on twitter, so i held off, too baDComment -
georgetown rolls, UC keeps chucking up 3s, fouls-a-poppin'Comment -
Good looking thread. Subscribed.
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won't hit because i tailed :PComment -
1st 5 minutes really doesn't mean shit unless you have an under and they score a fukk ton of points. As evidenced by this one. Droughts once again will be fukking another over. God damn incredible. 11 pts in 7 minutes. I'll be not posting these for a while now. These have reached a pretty high jinx factor of late. Good luck dudes.
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Updated Record: 178-150-7 [+10.87]Comment -
Today, I am just going to track some plays as the day goes and see if I can't figure out the good, bad and ugly of what has been going on with these of late. Again tracking for me, play 'em at your own risk as always.
1. Kent State-Ohio Under 74Comment -
under's lookin' good!Comment -
They are on fire... not so sure about the under if they keep playing like this.Comment -
Still on pace to be under by 9-10 points.Comment -
I'll be making notes for myself mainly and anyone interested as to what went wrong or right. Again, trying my best to sort this out. This one probably should have been left as a no play. Did not factor in improved shooting enough. Certainly they are above and beyond even normal shooting percentages for the half, but the 1st half possessions was 66 with 57 half time points. Expect 2nd half possessions was 71. With improved shooting, over was a possibility. Have to do better at leaving these be and trying to get all the factors in to play the strongest ones only.Comment -
2. Florida State-Boston College Under 71.5
Half time possessions: 57, Pts 57. Expected 2nd Half: 62. Shooting looks about on-par with an average game for both, so +/- in the 2nd half for worse or better shooting should keep this in range.Comment -
why stop with the plays? you're still in the green and I think you're due to turn it around.Comment -
Rather sit back and try to figure out a better plan of action rather than losing through a shit streak. Last game perfect example. Hot start gave it no chance. Better not to force it when things just aren't rolling your way. Like I said, I am tracking picks - if you feel the need to play 'em, go ahead, but they all seem to have bad mojo associated with them right now.Comment -
3. Tulane-SMU Over 68.5 [-110]
Half time possessions: 69, Pts. 62. 2nd Half Expected Possessions: 74. Last ten minutes, almost 40 pts scored after very slow start. Lots of fouling.
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I think I may have found a flaw that could help. Your only giving 5 value for the 2nd half for additional possessions. Well the 5 extra possessions will most often times convert into bonus or dbl bonus free throws so those extra possessions will most likely affect the total by about 80/90% based on late in the game more foul shooters are on the floor. So you should probably be attributing an additional 10 to your formula and not 5...Try your way and try mine and see how it helps...Comment -
I don't think they would help at all IMO. Adding ten to everything would make a lot of the plays look at unders just be default because the numbers are going to be further apart. Not every game is going to have extra possessions either due to blowouts, etc. - so my own opinion is that adding ten would really throw things off.Comment -
Just did a calculation and trying it on the Creighton Game.
2nd Half Total is 75.5.
I came up with:
Creighton 31 pts on 40 possessions
Evansville 36 pts on 43 possessions.
Running at 0.8:1 ratio. You factor in more possessions in 2nd half I like the over.
We will see.Comment
