John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

[MARCUS]

Thanks, much appreciated. After talking with 5D CS i was able to deposit, but I am still considering moving my money over to Heritage...not sure why, I just get the general sense that people deem it a very "classy" and "reliable" book...

..why would u leave a 13 y.o. a+ rated,reduced juice (-105 = 50% less) book?..classy???..oh yeah -105 mlb
lines also.

[samrock67]

Welcome to sbr. Be careful and don't get ahead of yourself-- it's not as easy as it seems. Money management is the key, not winning (if that makes sense). Vegas is what it is because 99% are losers, not winners. So be careful and don't bet over your head.. Noone is gonna get rich quick in this game..but if you grind it out and know your limits, it is possible to make a decent side income. BOL

I appreciate the words of wisdom and thanks for the welcome. I know, it sounds like I'm getting ahead of myself- I'm just as much of a number-cruncher as these guys and I love extrapolating, so it tends to get the best of me, but I've always had discipline and always exercise proper BR management- I learned that from playing poker for 13 years. I was a grinder in poker and I'm sure I can grind it out here, too. BOL to you as well

[samrock67]

..why would u leave a 13 y.o. a+ rated,reduced juice (-105 = 50% less) book?..classy???..oh yeah -105 mlb
lines also.

The decision wasn't final. I did say "considering"...I'm relatively new to sports betting and as stated, have had no problems with 5D up until now. A quick chat with CS fixed that. I have no experience with other books and was simply going off some of the posts I had seen in the book review section of this forum.

[Kev the Brit]

I may be wrong here, but I am under the assumtion with the 7/5 that it is played instead of the normal chase to win one unit. So I am playing Miami to win 8 units, 1 for the V1 chase and 7 for the 7/5.

I mean I guess if you wanted to bet 1 unit on the V1, 7 units on the 7/5 and then 2+ units on the V2 chase nobody is stopping you. I just don't recall that being the recommended course of action by the gurus in here.

You're correct, no-one is stopping you, but you are not getting the best value for money, which is why the gurus are not telling you to do it!

The 7/5 system REPLACES the 1 unit ABC systems, regardless of whether it is a V1,V2 or V3 series.

You are dangerously assuming that your A bets will always win. They don't, and whats more, in the long run they do not win enough times to justify playing them. This is why thelimit310 bust his balls last year backtesting the 7/5 system so you guys can replace the vulnerable A Bets. The best way to play the JM systems (ie make the most money) is to play the 7/5; no argument.
Once you play and lose the A bet, you cannot sensibly play the 7/5 system on the B & C. Lets all hope that the 1 Bet (7/5), the B Bet (V2) and the A Bet (V1) all win tonight.

[million2one]

Welcome to sbr. Be careful and don't get ahead of yourself-- it's not as easy as it seems. Money management is the key, not winning (if that makes sense). Vegas is what it is because 99% are losers, not winners. So be careful and don't bet over your head.. Noone is gonna get rich quick in this game..but if you grind it out and know your limits, it is possible to make a decent side income. BOL

Very classy and great post.

[Wallco99]

You're correct, no-one is stopping you, but you are not getting the best value for money, which is why the gurus are not telling you to do it!

The 7/5 system REPLACES the 1 unit ABC systems, regardless of whether it is a V1,V2 or V3 series.

You are dangerously assuming that your A bets will always win. They don't, and whats more, in the long run they do not win enough times to justify playing them. This is why thelimit310 bust his balls last year backtesting the 7/5 system so you guys can replace the vulnerable A Bets. The best way to play the JM systems (ie make the most money) is to play the 7/5; no argument.
Once you play and lose the A bet, you cannot sensibly play the 7/5 system on the B & C. Lets all hope that the 1 Bet (7/5), the B Bet (V2) and the A Bet (V1) all win tonight.

This is actually untrue, even though for a long time I believed it to be true also. Every season of 1-7-5 that I have tested so far, the final unit count of 1-7-5 has been higher than straight 7/5. I am only half way done, but I see a pattern when I am testing that surely looks like it will continue.

[MARCUS]

This is actually untrue, even though for a long time I believed it to be true also. Every season of 1-7-5 that I have tested so far, the final unit count of 1-7-5 has been higher than straight 7/5. I am only half way done, but I see a pattern when I am testing that surely looks like it will continue.

..great work wallco..thank$ 4 sharing!

[groovybrandone]

how does the 1/7/5 fair against the 1/3/5? i would assume the 1/7/5 has a higher return?

[Wallco99]

how does the 1/7/5 fair against the 1/3/5? i would assume the 1/7/5 has a higher return?

So far, every season I have tested, the 1-7-5 has outperformed all others. As I said, I still want to test several more seasons before declaring it successful.

[knugen]

Damn miami, why did you blow this

[DANO74]

F'king Miami blew it!!

[knugen]

So this means that mia next game on sunday will be one bet 1 and one Bet 2 under the 7/5 system, right?

[k310]

So this means that mia next game on sunday will be one bet 1 and one Bet 2 under the 7/5 system, right?

MIA's next game is on Saturday and appears to be Bet 1 and Bet 2 on the 7/5.

[knugen]

Oops sorry, i meant saturday

[cambertos]

As much as no one wants to hear about "a new system." I thought I would share some labby information with you all. As I continue my labby back test from
previous seasons I got my coworker started on it who already had a background in sports betting, but was unsuccessful with his own picks. Introduced him to this system as well as Stiff's for him to follow. Mainly recommended this one to start off with so its easier to track. As I was showing him the labby decided to research how much a conservative labby approach would have made this season.

I may have missed 1 or 2 games this season, so feel free to double check, but these are the games I have bet on. Attached is my excel file if I were to run a $20 unit size with a labby line starting of 10-10-10-10. It can be a bit confusing because I do not add any additional units to the line when a new series is starting. All games were played at -110 (ATS) based on covers closing lines.

In the end the labby total with a very conservative approach is up 21 units this season ($418) since Oct 31, but what is most interesting is the risk amount. The biggest bet would have only been $42 up to this point in the season. As I continue my test I want to figure out what percent of your bankroll can you really put on your labby with out a risk of losing say more than 50% of your bankroll at any point in the season.

The labby strategy is a bit of an adjustment from a regular labby. If my labby line is say 5#s at the end of the day and the following day there are say 4 games, I total my labby line together and create a new line over 8 #s which lowers the risk. It also does not maximize the profit, which is why I need to figure out what percent of your bankroll you can really stick on your starting labby line.

No new rules, filters, are applied. Similar to 1-3-5 all games in the excel file were tested at -110 odds.

Enjoy and please share any feed back you may have.
JMD

Thanks for this man!I have been really keen to start a labby system in the past few months , will check this out

[Vinnie Paz]

Atlanta on the ML as well (B)

[ghislaine]

I always labby JM. Up some. Mainly use labby because it's so much more relaxed and gets me from stressing individual games. Respect to JM Disciple, remember You helping me out when I first started using labby lines. Two seasons JM NBA and one MLB took my bank of 200$ to 2760$ just using simple 4# labby and even out so all # and games always equal. Started with just 2,5 x4 line too

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 35-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +35.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-5.37 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 22-15
(B) 8-6
(C) 5-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (1/11/13):
#33 Resumes (C) on 1/12/13
#36 Utah @ Atlanta (M/L) (B) (7:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[knugen]

I heard that kevin love one of minnesotas top player dont gonna play tonight, anyone know if thats true?

[BCC585]

I heard that kevin love one of minnesotas top player dont gonna play tonight, anyone know if thats true?

He'll be out till mid march due to surgery on his hand.

[olmec]

Games for (1/11/13):
#33 Resumes (C) on 1/12/13
#36 Utah @ Atlanta (M/L) (B) (7:35 pm EST)

.

Thanks for the system. May i ask you put the ratios of the games also? Then we could have a chance to compare your ratios with our bet firms' ratios.

Take Care

[imotiv8]

Of the 3 systems, V1, V2, and V3, does anyone know which one is historically the weakest?

[thelimit0310]

7/5 Plays JAN 10

Miami Heat -3.5 vs Portland - Bet 1

7/5 Plays JAN 11

Houston +2.5 vs Boston - Bet 1

Minnesota +2.5 vs New Orleans - Bet 1

Results:
Bet 1: 10-9
Bet 2: 5-3
Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25
Boston 12/14

Miami Bet 2 tomorrow 1/12

[thelimit0310]

Miami is only going to be a Bet 2 in the 7/5 we don't play that JM rule here one series per roadtrip

[0tuks0]

Miami is only going to be a Bet 2 in the 7/5 we don't play that JM rule here one series per roadtrip

Can you please explain this a little bit. I can't quite understand what you wanted to say.

[thelimit0310]

Can you please explain this a little bit. I can't quite understand what you wanted to say.

Up a few posts people are saying Miami could be a Bet 1 and Bet 2 because of some JM filter, not the case. It's only a Bet 2 tomorrow.

[thes0vereign]

Welcome to sbr. Be careful and don't get ahead of yourself-- it's not as easy as it seems. Money management is the key, not winning (if that makes sense). Vegas is what it is because 99% are losers, not winners. So be careful and don't bet over your head.. Noone is gonna get rich quick in this game..but if you grind it out and know your limits, it is possible to make a decent side income. BOL

Wondered if you were still around. How have you been doing lately, dlunc?

[J.M. Disciple]

7/5 does not use v1, v2, & v3 separately for 7/5 system. As limit said its one series per road trip. V1 through v3 are all combined into one system.



On a side note we have 5 plays today
1/11/2013
CLE (A)
CHA (A)
OKC (A)
HOU (B)
MIN (B)
Pending Mia 1/12/2013


Also want to note for the games on TNT if you are able to watch them, during the 1st quarter I notice when the favorite is winning say by 4pts you are able to get an extra 1-2pts at the spread during the commercial breaks for live betting. Yesterday I was able to get Dallas at +11.5 when the spread was 10. Either way the 1.5pts didn't matter, but could come in handy. Especially if you don't get your wager in on time. A little live wager could save the day.

[MARCUS]

ez 3-0 2night men..thank$ limit,wallco

[stevex]

JM Traditional

1/11/2013

V1

1. Cleveland Cavs A Bet @ Denver Nuggets

V3

1. OKC Thunder A Bet @ LA Lakers

2. Charlotte Bobcats A Bet @ Toronto Raptors

No time to give a full update tonight fellas. Will give a full recap and update tomorrow with records.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 35-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +35.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-5.37 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 22-15
(B) 8-6
(C) 5-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (1/11/13):
#33 Resumes (C) on 1/12/13
#36 Utah @ Atlanta (M/L) (B) (7:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[J.M. Disciple]

JM Traditional

1/11/2013

V1

1. Cleveland Cavs A Bet @ Denver Nuggets

V3

1. OKC Thunder A Bet @ LA Lakers

2. Charlotte Bobcats A Bet @ Toronto Raptors

No time to give a full update tonight fellas. Will give a full recap and update tomorrow with records.

Just going off the schedule I see, forgot the most important two HOU (B) and MIN (B).

[J.M. Disciple]

I am no excel expert by no means so need a little help from you gentlemen. I am trying to make a graph of the running total on my excel file. I have attached it. I am trying to get a running total in column H for each day there has been a bet.

For example
H2 = sum(F2+F3)
H3 = sum(H2+F4)
H4 = sum(h3+F5) etc etc.

This should show the daily profit tallied together as the season goes. Once I have that column I want to organize it with the dates to make a nice line graph showing the variance. When I finish my back test I would like to get a nice variance graph of the past 5-10 years, but takes a lot of time to input every thing. I know some of you are a lot better at excel than myself, so please lend a brother a hand.

[J.M. Disciple]

CRAZY Every underdog right now is winning besides CHA. I thought the lines were a little fishy, but just did some underdog teasers

[Hinnenk1amp]

Good Luck to everyone this season. NBA always seems to be much more profitable then MLB.