LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 07-16-11, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by spongerat

agree with your play I already pounded it. Whats weird is that is opened then went down to 157 then is up to 163? I don't get it! these are the two slowest paced teams! Is there an injury or something we're missing

This is just typical line movement for the WNBA. If you can get openers, you can just arb yourself to some solid profit day in and day out without much risk. I would think it impossible, however, to get Pinny openers day after day.

**Love The Action** · 07-16-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

WNBA 7/16/11

Play #1

Chicago/Atlanta under (163) 1x (Locked)

Not sure where this number came from but one of my locals just went to 163 so I jumped on that for the under. Most of the market is at 162.5 as I type, with Pinny juicing the under -107. I have this one capped at lease four points less. My model has an overall total of 158, a Home/Away total of 159, a total of 159 based on the last five games and a total of 158 based on the last ten games. Both team are coming off unders (2 straight in the case of Atlanta) and both teams are 2-5 o/u in their last 7 games. Chicago trends under big time whether it be in road games, on 2 days of rest as dogs or games held on Saturday. On the other side, Atlanta also trends under as a favorite and coming off ATS/SU losses. Chicago is 0-2 o/u at total set in this range while Atlanta is 4-6 o/u in the same range. Both teams are 1-2 o/u this year on 2 days rest with Chicago averaging 155 points and Atlanta averaging 164. Based on my projected lines and the strong trends favoring the under in this matchup, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck!

Play #2

Seattle/Minny under (148) 1x (Locked)

I was contemplating whether to play this one or not based on its public nature, however, I like this one to end just short of 147. We have a razor thin margin here, but with Seattle playing, this thing might not hit 140. Seattle 1-5 o/u on the road this year and expect that trend to continue tonight. Both teams are trending under and you have a strong head-to-head under trend in this series with four of the last five checking in under the posted total. As long as these two teams play to the same pace as their previous matchups, and don't shoot over 47%, the under should hit. Good luck.

**RoagBettor** · 07-16-11, 05:08 PM

Good luck tonight buddy! Great hit on that Mercury under last night, it took balls to stick to your guns and make that play, I admire that.

**alamo** · 07-16-11, 10:54 PM

Great night LTA.... Nice to get some easy winners

**SBRMAN23** · 07-17-11, 12:49 AM

Great call on the Minny under thanks

**kobstopa** · 07-17-11, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #2

Seattle/Minny under (148) 1x (Locked)

I was contemplating whether to play this one or not based on its public nature, however, I like this one to end just short of 147. We have a razor thin margin here, but with Seattle playing, this thing might not hit 140. Seattle 1-5 o/u on the road this year and expect that trend to continue tonight. Both teams are trending under and you have a strong head-to-head under trend in this series with four of the last five checking in under the posted total. As long as these two teams play to the same pace as their previous matchups, and don't shoot over 47%, the under should hit. Good luck.

nice, I was with these under as well
good to see you're back with that radar gun logo, its reflect a persona as we come to know you

**Redscot** · 07-17-11, 07:42 AM

OK, I'm a puss. Reduced my unit size by half on the chicks yesterday and boom, you hit'em both! Good job my man, I have faith in you figuring out these broads, cause I sure as hell ain't.

Did I just refer to my unit size and chicks? That just don't sound right.

**gtboy** · 07-17-11, 09:40 AM

Nice trend. U like NY over 152. whats ur thought about it. thnaks

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 12:36 PM

Thanks guys...we finally broke through a little bit last night. I've been capping bases all day, so it's onto the ladies now. Good luck to everyone today!

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 02:49 PM

WNBA 7/17/11

Indiana/Connecticut under (151) 1x (Locked)

I'll keep it short. My model has it at 149 across the board. The under has hit in 5 of the last six. Both teams are coming off an under and have played to the under in three of their last 5 games. The last game in this series Indiana shot 50% and Connecticut shot 40%. I expect Indiana to shoot much worse but Connecticut to keep it around the 42.6% that they shot in Connecticut on June 25th. I'll roll with a couple points of value on the under here for 1x.

I also lean under in Tulsa/NY and over in Washington/LA. I'm not playing that game because I think the number is too sharp and it's basically a coinflip. I may play the Washington/LA under later. Good luck to all today!

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 03:49 PM

Looks like early money jumped on the under in the Washington/LA game, but as of right now the over is a huge public favorite. Hmmm...looking like a no play for me as of right now.

**burgi** · 07-17-11, 04:01 PM

TOTAL: Mystics at Sparks U151 (-110)

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by burgi

TOTAL: Mystics at Sparks U151 (-110)

So you're taking the under? Good luck dude.

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

WNBA 7/17/11

Indiana/Connecticut under (151) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I'll keep it short. My model has it at 149 across the board. The under has hit in 5 of the last six. Both teams are coming off an under and have played to the under in three of their last 5 games. The last game in this series Indiana shot 50% and Connecticut shot 40%. I expect Indiana to shoot much worse but Connecticut to keep it around the 42.6% that they shot in Connecticut on June 25th. I'll roll with a couple points of value on the under here for 1x.

I also lean under in Tulsa/NY and over in Washington/LA. I'm not playing that game because I think the number is too sharp and it's basically a coinflip. I may play the Washington/LA under later. Good luck to all today!

Sweet...got a bit lucky but we'll take it after all the bad breaks we have been catching. Should have played that lean on the Tulsa under that I posted as well. Makes me think I should play my lean in the late game. Wish it wasn't such a public play.

**ebemiss** · 07-17-11, 06:37 PM

You really had to let us know you had a winner. Right after the game was over. In Blue Bold lettering. I guess I missed the memo on how to congratulate yourself. I always thought it was better to have someone else recognize your work, not tell everyone how good you were. Maybe it's just me.

**Shifty107** · 07-17-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by ebemiss

You really had to let us know you had a winner. Right after the game was over. In Blue Bold lettering. I guess I missed the memo on how to congratulate yourself. I always thought it was better to have someone else recognize your work, not tell everyone how good you were. Maybe it's just me.

Who the fuk shat in ur socks this morning u fukin kill joy.

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by ebemiss

You really had to let us know you had a winner. Right after the game was over. In Blue Bold lettering. I guess I missed the memo on how to congratulate yourself. I always thought it was better to have someone else recognize your work, not tell everyone how good you were. Maybe it's just me.

Easy dude...I think it's just you. Why do you care? I generally recap my plays like that on the weekends when I have time and anyone that's been in any of my threads can tell you that. Sorry if you didn't cash that one but I don't see why you're bringing that negativity in this thread. I try to keep in positive in here. If anything, you should have attacked me earlier in the weak when I was struggling but not now after I won my last three. It makes you look jealous and petty. Good luck in the future but no reason to attack me for that...pretty weak.

**Redscot** · 07-17-11, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by ebemiss

You really had to let us know you had a winner. Right after the game was over. In Blue Bold lettering. I guess I missed the memo on how to congratulate yourself. I always thought it was better to have someone else recognize your work, not tell everyone how good you were. Maybe it's just me.

Whoa dude, let's chalk this up to you not knowing LTA well. He is a class poster who never looks to start shiznit and always respects the opinion of others. Nothing wrong with feeling good about a result, and sometimes the timing is happenstance when one is back to the computer.

**alamo** · 07-17-11, 07:13 PM

LTA has always been humble and modest in victory and takes defeat like a man. Lets keep the roll going boys.

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 07:14 PM

WNBA Recap 7/16/11 - 7/17/11

3 - 0 = +3x

WNBA 2011 Season

39 - 33 = +2.2x

Here we are going into tonight's game. I'm looking over my research. Might make a small action play. Good luck to all tonight!

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Shifty107

Who the fuk shat in ur socks this morning u fukin kill joy.

Originally posted by Redscot

Whoa dude, let's chalk this up to you not knowing LTA well. He is a class poster who never looks to start shiznit and always respects the opinion of others. Nothing wrong with feeling good about a result, and sometimes the timing is happenstance when one is back to the computer.

Originally posted by alamo

LTA has always been humble and modest in victory and takes defeat like a man. Lets keep the roll going boys.

Thanks guys...but don't even worry about. I think that guy was just frustrated. He seemed knowledgeable in the past but no sure what that attitude was all about. No worries though, we move onto the late game. Anyone playing the RAS play on Washington? I still lean over...

**GoggsViggs** · 07-17-11, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by ebemiss

You really had to let us know you had a winner. Right after the game was over. In Blue Bold lettering. I guess I missed the memo on how to congratulate yourself. I always thought it was better to have someone else recognize your work, not tell everyone how good you were. Maybe it's just me.

bro, LTA is a good guy and one of the classiest cappers on this forum. i think you just misunderstood. we're on the same team here.

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

WNBA Recap 7/16/11 - 7/17/11

3 - 0 = +3x

WNBA 2011 Season

39 - 33 = +2.2x

Here we are going into tonight's game. I'm looking over my research. Might make a small action play. Good luck to all tonight!

No play on the Washington/LA over. I do lean that way, but Washington's futility scoring lately is well documented. Over the last five games, even Tulsa has score more. I'm going to sit this one out tonight so our record above will be official heading into next week. Back in the black and I intend to keep it that way. Good luck to everyone tonight and let's get ready for a big week tomorrow. Just going to sit back and hopefully cash my final MLB ticket of the night on the Red Sox -1 RL. Need that one for a big night....

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by GoggsViggs

bro, LTA is a good guy and one of the classiest cappers on this forum. i think you just misunderstood. we're on the same team here.

Thanks bud

How's the baby? It's crazy trying to cap a game while I'm feeding and burbing my son at the same time

I love it though...thank god I'm a good multi-tasker. I stopped by your MLB thread the other day and say you were still hot. Keep up the great work!

**GoggsViggs** · 07-17-11, 07:37 PM

baby's doing well. i've mastered the one hand on ipad, milk bottle tucked under my chin as she feeds and other hand grabbing beer skills. just finished burping her and putting her to sleep. now it's time to kick back and support my Bosox. Got them on the RL.

thanks for stopping by my MLB thread. my original goal is to hit 30x so i'm almost there!

**RoagBettor** · 07-17-11, 08:54 PM

Nice job buddy! I like it when we're on the same play!

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Nice job buddy! I like it when we're on the same play!

Glad to hear it..you are on fire!

**Love The Action** · 07-17-11, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I also lean under in Tulsa/NY and over in Washington/LA. I'm not playing that game because I think the number is too sharp and it's basically a coinflip. I may play the Washington/LA under later. Good luck to all today!

Wish I would have played that Wash/LA over and Tulsa/Ny under...damn...would have been 3-0 tonight. I hate when that happens. On the positive side, it shows I am starting to heat up. Tomorrow should be fun.

**Love The Action** · 07-18-11, 07:42 AM

WNBA 2011 Season

39 - 33 = +2.2x

OK guys, we're back in the black now and we intend to stay there. I am very interested in playing the Silver Stars on the side today but it appears the whole world is on them as well. However, as we have come to find out, the public is hitting at a high rate this year in WNBA (e.g. last night's over in Wash/LA where 90%+ were on over). I will probably have a play on the total for sure, but haven't started capping the game yet and still need to put all the new numbers in my model. Feel free to post your leans/thoughts/plays here so we can get a feel of who everyone likes. Good luck on everyone's plays today!

**RoagBettor** · 07-18-11, 08:26 AM

Yeah, but keep in mind that the public got lucky on that over last night because of OT. They only had 154 points at the end of regulation which was under the total. I would have pounded the Silver Stars tonight if the Sparks would have beaten the Mystics like they should have. What a collapse! Now I'm not as confident so we'll see. Good luck with whatever play you make tonight buddy.

**Love The Action** · 07-18-11, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Yeah, but keep in mind that the public got lucky on that over last night because of OT. They only had 154 points at the end of regulation which was under the total. I would have pounded the Silver Stars tonight if the Sparks would have beaten the Mystics like they should have. What a collapse! Now I'm not as confident so we'll see. Good luck with whatever play you make tonight buddy.

Nope...I think you have your totals mixed up. They did score 154 in regulation but the total was 151.5 so they would have cashed the over even without ot...

**Love The Action** · 07-18-11, 04:36 PM

WNBA 7/18/11

Play #1

SA/LA over (158) 1x (Locked)

I have this one topping 160 in each of my model's categories so I will roll with the over here...I will give you the rest of my analysis after work once I get home. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 07-18-11, 06:03 PM

I'm also going to tail Roag and MBP on their 1h over play (does not count towards record) for 0.50x. Lets root for lots of scoring tonight...good luck!

**Love The Action** · 07-18-11, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

WNBA 7/18/11

Play #1

SA/LA over (158) 1x (Locked)

I have this one topping 160 in each of my model's categories so I will roll with the over here...I will give you the rest of my analysis after work once I get home. Good luck.

Here are some more thoughts on this play:

First, LA has been an over machine going 8-2 on the year. Sure, one argument could be that they are due to regress to the under at some point, and I agree that is true, however, just not tonight. They are 4-0-2 to the over in the last 6 games. Bottom line is that LA has been scoring points and giving up just as much with some weak defense. Fortunately, that is exactly what the doctor ordered for SA who is coming off a stretch where they were 4-0-1 to the under and shot horribly. However, that was against some good defenses in NY twice, Chicago and Seattle. They also played LA in that span and pushed on the total despite shooting 35%. Based on pace stats, we only need both teams to shoot around 44% to cash this over and I think we get that tonight based on SA having some nice rest after a tough shooting night against Seattle. SA is 3-2 in favor of the over with an average score of 171 on games where they had 3 days of rest. Finally LA is 4-1 in favor of the over against winning teams this year and 4-2 in favor of the over at a total set in the 150's. None of these are earth-shattering trends, but when you add everything up and combine it with my projected total score ranging from 161 to 164, I think the girls get it done tonight and go over the posted total.

In addition to the game total for 1x, I am going to play the 1h over as well for 0.50x based on a certain trend MBP referenced in Roag's thread which is hitting over 70% and Roag having a system play on this one. The 1h play is not for the records.

I also lean to SA, but so does the whole world and, because I am left to take -2 or -130, I am not going to play such horrible prices after they opened at +2, +130.

Good luck to everyone tonight on your plays!

**suicidekings** · 07-18-11, 08:10 PM

The Over is solid here. I'm also waiting on a potential Stars 2H play, if the Sparks are leading at the half Good luck tonight LTA