I hate to try and predict the pace these teams will look to play into in the first game, but at 195 these total is starting to get really really seductive for an under bet. As are the Heat if they get into the 5.5/6 range.
-
Comment -
I know the NBA is about matchups, but I find it funny how there were a lot of folks who thought the Spurs were going to dismantle the Heat in the Finals. After watching the Thunder take apart a Spurs team that had won 20 straight in 4 consecutive games, now it's the Heat that will win. I guess the Heat have value due to being the underdog and having been here last year, but OKC is a tough place to play. Here's hoping we get a great series that goes 7 games. Here's also hoping we get a nice money-making series as well.
Comment -
Bet365 is reportedly this bet for the finals.
-225 o/u 5.5 games.
Man I think the series goes 6 or 7 but laying -225 is a bit too high right?
No way any team sweeps except if Miami wins two at OKC but that is unlikely.
I think over 5.5 games is a winner but afraid of the price.
Any thoughts?Comment -
Off topic I know Red but that was the worst ruling I have ever seen with my own eyes. And I had a small bet on Bradley. I was in the process of clicking it off when Buffer said "And new....."Comment -
Bet365 got some interesting little future props.
Heat backers...Thunder to win gm1 and lose the series can get +350. Heat to win from behind +333. Personally I tjink okc take game 1 handily.
Perkins, sefalosha, haslem to win MVP +101
Comment -
LOL. I was dead tired here Catchn adn when the fight ended clicked off the TV. My youngest son (12) told me "Dad, turn it back on, you never know....." Somehow I knew I was F ucked then and there. What an idiotic bet anyway, but it had been a while since I lost a boxing bet.
Anywho, to the matter at hand! Which team will set the pace in this series? Both teams are unstoppable on the break......Transition game could tell the tale of this series.Comment -
Actually, both teams are better defending the fastbreak than executing it offensively.Comment -
Wow, that surprises me,but I am going by eye, not stats, and the eye can lie! Just seems you get Lebron, Wade, Durant, Westbrook, Harden with a head of steam and they convert almost without fail.
I do think it will be key though who is able to win the transition game (Hubie Brown would be proud of me
) both offensively and defensively.
Comment -
What are everyones thoughts on tonights game? I can make a case for both the over and the under. Lol.Comment -
Grabbed the over at 192 around opening, now at 196 so that looks a great play regardless of the outcome. Also on thunder -4, I think they shoot well tonight and destroy Miami who are coming off a 7 game emotional struggle of a series. Will be disappointing to lose both as I am currently combining to beat the closer by 5 points. LTA, what do you fancy tonight and what are your thoughts on the series?Comment -
Im thinking the OKC side is the best bet tonight.Comment -
OKC is one of the loudest buildings in NBA America. I feel a bit sorry for the Seattle Supersonics who were robbed of this team a few years ago by a lying owner who promised to never move the team as he was drawing up moving papers.
Nevertheless, I think Miami will steal one of these two games at OKC. If they do, they may win the ring they covet. They know this too. I heard a round table of top former NBA stars on the radio today talking about this game. They all agreed that the first game of this series is the easiest for the visitor to steal. This would be even more true for a total newcomer to the rarified air of the finals.
I mean, Miami slammed the door pretty hard over the last two games against Boston. (Well, 3 of the last 4 halves anyway.) They got their mojo and shutdown D back. Can they score enough? Wade must show up, Bosh must get 13-18 points and Lebron needs to be Lebron.
For part of this game at least Durant will have to guard Lebron. That is a major defensive mismatch as Durant doesn't play much D against regular players and Lebron has been making scary power moves to the basket with authority over the last series.
I took Miami +210 ML and put in a play at +5.5 on BetUS just as it dropped to +5. So, I am waiting for the line to come back to 5.5 since OKC is juicing on 5D right now. I also have a small play on Miami O 47.5 (1 H) on the assumption that OKC will try to establish their offense right out of the gate and that will run the score up on both sides.
No big bets, but enough to have fun.
BOL to everyone. GL on whatever you play. May the best team win.Comment -
why are so few people talking about the fact that Miami doesn't have anyone to guard Westbrook?Comment -
Lebron on Durant
Wade on Westbrook
Battier on HardenComment -
Sefolosha on wadeComment -
Wade is not healthy. I don't think he can guard Westbrook effectively. You may see glimpses of Lebron on Westbrook and Battier on Durant down the stretch in tight games. I think Thabo can have success guarding Wade. If he does, then Lebron can get his and the Thunder will still win.Comment -
Agreed. With the state of Wade's health I think they try to "hide" him defensively as best they can in the hopes that his energy can be spent on the offensive end. Looking for an angle on this game still.....will probably try to "Exploit" a live line if I can get a feel in the early going.Comment -
Bookmaker and BetUS just went to +5.5.
Pinny and 5D are juicing the fav hard.
If you want OKC get it now...if you want Miami, soon come man!Comment -
Think I am going into the game looking for Miami +7.5 and or over 189......feel free to talk me out of this
.
Comment -
Probably a risky strategy, but I took Miami ML @ +208 for 3U. My hope is at some point in the game Miami makes a run that will push the OKC live total to -120 or better at which point I'll lock in ~1.3U profit on any outcome. Hoping OKC doesn't blow them out. This has worked out well for me so far in the playoffs when I can't pick a side. There have been a lot of back and forth games with large runs and very few blowouts. It coincides with my theory that when teams have a large lead the refs subconsciously call games against them. Not a single stat to back up anything I just said
Comment -
Great strategy right out of the fine book "Conquering Risk" by Feustel and Howard. (LTA refers to it all the time). Super game plan...I hope it works out for you.Probably a risky strategy, but I took Miami ML @ +208 for 3U. My hope is at some point in the game Miami makes a run that will push the OKC live total to -120 or better at which point I'll lock in ~1.3U profit on any outcome. Hoping OKC doesn't blow them out. This has worked out well for me so far in the playoffs when I can't pick a side. There have been a lot of back and forth games with large runs and very few blowouts. It coincides with my theory that when teams have a large lead the refs subconsciously call games against them. Not a single stat to back up anything I just said
Comment -
Monty McCutchen Ed Malloy Derrick Stafford. Any leans on the total with this crew?Comment -
Thanks for the info. Going to get the book for my next flight. Happy to know I wasn't straight out of left field with this.Comment -
Red, might consider going the other way on the total. I think they'll be a spot in the first quarter where it gets fast paced and a quick run on points hould see the total jump to 201 or so live. Then I would jump on the under. I think the opening line is pretty fair and the game could end up at 191-194 rangeComment -
Hey Redscot, just so you know, after 3 diff days of phone calls & talking to a manager for 15-20 mins telling them that other books (like Paddy Power) are refunding wagers from the Pacquiao fight. Bovada said I was the first person to refund from the fight & that in the future they HAVE to stick with the official results. But they refunded almost 3 units for me
Just passing the info along in case it helps. I feel all books should refund & do the right thing. Hope my small quick story can help ya. OR others. BOL to ev1.
Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/12/2012
Play #1
Heat (+5.5) 1x (Locked)
Good luck.Comment -
I'll take a shot on the Heat tonight. My model has this at +3 and when it hit +5.5, I had to take a shot for the value. Miami's strength on defense is takeaways which is OKC's weakness on offense and I think that plays out to Miami's advantage tonight. In the game between these two teams that OKC won and covered, Ibaka and Perkins both had huge games. I don't think that happens tonight. We'll see, I have not had a ton of success backing the heat as faves this season so perhaps we'll do a little better with them as dogs. Good luck.Comment -
I took a shot with them and also with the under. Agree with you in your view of the game.Comment -
Hey Redscot, just so you know, after 3 diff days of phone calls & talking to a manager for 15-20 mins telling them that other books (like Paddy Power) are refunding wagers from the Pacquiao fight. Bovada said I was the first person to refund from the fight & that in the future they HAVE to stick with the official results. But they refunded almost 3 units for me Just passing the info along in case it helps. I feel all books should refund & do the right thing. Hope my small quick story can help ya. OR others. BOL to ev1.
Been around the boxing game a long time, kinda sad that I just accepted the loss as part of the game.Comment -
What did you get on OKC? Gotta assume you got at least +120. I agree with Catchn....great strategy and one I would definitely employ if I had access to live betting. That is one of the main reasons, along with the reduce juice, I was contemplating putting some money offshore at 5D.Probably a risky strategy, but I took Miami ML @ +208 for 3U. My hope is at some point in the game Miami makes a run that will push the OKC live total to -120 or better at which point I'll lock in ~1.3U profit on any outcome. Hoping OKC doesn't blow them out. This has worked out well for me so far in the playoffs when I can't pick a side. There have been a lot of back and forth games with large runs and very few blowouts. It coincides with my theory that when teams have a large lead the refs subconsciously call games against them. Not a single stat to back up anything I just saidComment -
After reading this post I followed suit getting Miami reduced at +220. Got OKC at +125 subsequently. Obviously tonight played out perfectly for this strategy, but when I saw your post, it made too much sense to pass up the opportunity. Cheers!Probably a risky strategy, but I took Miami ML @ +208 for 3U. My hope is at some point in the game Miami makes a run that will push the OKC live total to -120 or better at which point I'll lock in ~1.3U profit on any outcome. Hoping OKC doesn't blow them out. This has worked out well for me so far in the playoffs when I can't pick a side. There have been a lot of back and forth games with large runs and very few blowouts. It coincides with my theory that when teams have a large lead the refs subconsciously call games against them. Not a single stat to back up anything I just said
Comment -
Glad to see you got on this too. Perfect game for it and I'm hoping perfect series for it. If I'm able to watch the game and there is a decent ML I'll probably be on it with these 2 teams. Cheers!
Comment
