LTA's NBA Plays

[SlickRick1382]

Won the first half wager.

Added some more at U206 in live betting

2H scoring was too much

17 3 pointers in the 2H killed any chance we had.

I was right about 1st Quarter and better chance at O/U in the 2Q or forward. Just sucked that they shot lights out afterwards ...

[jj108]

under tonight

[alamo]

Good luck with the play tonight LTA. As always will be with you.

[TC Woods]

I missed it, where is LTA on this game?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/5/2012

Play #1

Heat (-7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Celtics/Heat under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

No big chase, but we'll play the under for 1x. I also like the Heat to take this one by double digits, but will be pretty pissed if it ends on the key number of 7. I think the Celtics struggle tonight offensively which leads to a correlated play on the Heat and under. Good luck.

[Les_Nuts]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/5/2012

Play #1

Heat (-7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Celtics/Heat under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

On both already, got 180 for the total though. Let's get it

[Love The Action]

On both already, got 180 for the total though. Let's get it

Went to lock in 180 and it said the odds had changed. Usually that means a drop and I thought I would be stuck with 179.5. Instead, it went up to 180.5. First time that has ever happened in my favor....

Good luck tonight buddy.

[JM92]

I cant believe I stressed with this all day and you just posted now. damn. Will try to get it in the second half.

gl guys

[t-wizzle]

Where did you get 180.5?

[JM92]

already got them both (7 and 180) with no juice on live. but i will be looking to add at the half, at least 1 unit each if possible.

GL again guys

[BeardedTaco]

Where did you get 180.5?

legends

[Les_Nuts]

already got them both (7 and 180) with no juice on live. but i will be looking to add at the half, at least 1 unit each if possible.

GL again guys

I wanted to get 7 on the heat but thought they would start fast and I wouldn't get a chance live. Good number

[Love The Action]

A 60 point 4th quarter?!? These two teams keep figuring out new ways to screw me. Lost about 12x in profit in this series now. So disappointing.

[dmitean]

Glad you decided not to chase on this one LTA!

As I wrote, was on Over 178 myself, but Game 6 should be a nice number (at least 180) and a good Under result (89 - 85 or something like that)...

Good luck!

[Reno_Thor]

Miami went from pick to -1 1/2 in about 5 minutes after it opened for game 6, sheesh! Like Celts at home here.

[Catchn_Picks]

Sportscenter commentators shredding Miami's D on the air. I know the under is a killer this series but with Boston playing for a win in the Garden...and Miami proving they are a defense team...with Bosh being much more healthy.

I see an under this Thursday.

Line just out...total 179.5

[BeardedTaco]

[jj108]

Hey LTA, you stink man 😁

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, you stink man 😁

Well my books would disagree with you considering I'm a long term winner. Now I do stink in picking this Heat Celtics series considering it cost me over 12x in profit so far. Nevertheless, I still remain UP for the season which is more than 98% of the jamokes out there can say. You see, a very disappointing season for me - which is what this was -- is still better than anything you or 98% of the market can accomplish. I'm not bragging either, just stating the facts. In this business you just have to accept that you can't win all the time. However, this season has left a sour taste in my mouth and expect a much better NBA season to come.

[Love The Action]

Sportscenter commentators shredding Miami's D on the air. I know the under is a killer this series but with Boston playing for a win in the Garden...and Miami proving they are a defense team...with Bosh being much more healthy.

I see an under this Thursday.

Line just out...total 179.5

The books keep getting killed on the over yet never adjust upwards. Why? This is he first year I have seen absolutely no adjustment.

[aussieH]

Great point that the books are not adjusting up. I think the under hits next game

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 6/3/2012 Recap

0 - 2 = -2.2x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

21 - 20 = -0.45x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

155 - 142 = +3.2x

This heat/Celts series has cost me over 12x in profit. How very disappointing and frustrating. It's times like this when everything seems to go against me that I hate this business. Nothing I can do but continue to work hard, finish the season strong and come back with a vengeance next year. Let's see if we can't hit a little hot streak first though to end this season with some momentum. GL

[Love The Action]

Great point that the books are not adjusting up. I think the under hits next game

It's insane....they never adjusted all series and just gave away free money on the over. I don't get it....

[aussieH]

They either continue to fear the under 180 is the risk or they are drawing a lot of losing bets onthe under.

I tend to think they are not brave enough to risk a wrong line at this time of year with so much action and possible risk. They would prefer an even amount of bets both sides and collect the juice

[Love The Action]

They either continue to fear the under 180 is the risk or they are drawing a lot of losing bets onthe under.

I tend to think they are not brave enough to risk a wrong line at this time of year with so much action and possible risk. They would prefer an even amount of bets both sides and collect the juice

I'm sure they are getting a ton of sharp money on the under that has lost. However, there has been upwards of 75%+ of all bets on the over in every game this series. They are getting killed on over bets by the public and the only thing I can think of is that sharp money on the under is evening it out for them so they are not adjusting higher. It seems they would rather lose on the over to the public than on the under to the sharps.

I may go big on the under in this next game....

[Redscot]

The Heat's stars are such front running biznitches. I used to like Wade and I have never been a Lebron hater, but these two are SO F-ing arrogant when they are winning (see last year against Dallas, and clowning Dirk for his cold, etc.) When you punch them in the nose though they get real quiet. Part of being a super star is being a killer. Jordan was a killer, Bird was a killer, Isiah was a killer, I can't stand him but Kobe is a killer. I think Wade used to be one, but these guys have become so damn pampered that they have lost their edge.

The danger's of in-game betting finally bit me last night, it was inevitable, I got Miami at -5 1/2 and when it dropped to -1 I hit them pretty big . Nothing bank roll busting, but it hurt. Nevertheless seeing the Heat lose was a consolation and hearing the kid so enthusiastically telling them "good game! Good effort!" as they walked off the court was F-ing classic!

[coachkap]

It's insane....they never adjusted all series and just gave away free money on the over. I don't get it....

LTA ..... In hindsight, it seems very possible that the books are undervaluing the point totals for each CELTIC/HEAT game and the bettor needs to adjust to where the value is rather than assuming the books are wrong in not adjusting up.....

[Love The Action]

LTA ..... In hindsight, it seems very possible that the books are undervaluing the point totals for each CELTIC/HEAT game and the bettor needs to adjust to where the value is rather than assuming the books are wrong in not adjusting up.....

Interesting, but I think you need to elaborate you point. Can you expand and clarify?

If that was the case, then they are baiting you into taking the over by dangling such low totals after high scoring games because they lean under like I have. However, if true, they would be getting killed by over money. Sharps are betting unders and getting taken to the cleaners because of abnormal 60 point quarters like the 4th last night. If you look at each game, the under has basically lost each game because of one high scoring quarter. It's tough for any algorhythm to predict a 60 point quarter between these teams...especially the 4th quarter which has been historically the lowest point total quarter in the playoffs.

[Love The Action]

The Heat's stars are such front running biznitches. I used to like Wade and I have never been a Lebron hater, but these two are SO F-ing arrogant when they are winning (see last year against Dallas, and clowning Dirk for his cold, etc.) When you punch them in the nose though they get real quiet. Part of being a super star is being a killer. Jordan was a killer, Bird was a killer, Isiah was a killer, I can't stand him but Kobe is a killer. I think Wade used to be one, but these guys have become so damn pampered that they have lost their edge.

The danger's of in-game betting finally bit me last night, it was inevitable, I got Miami at -5 1/2 and when it dropped to -1 I hit them pretty big . Nothing bank roll busting, but it hurt. Nevertheless seeing the Heat lose was a consolation and hearing the kid so enthusiastically telling them "good game! Good effort!" as they walked off the court was F-ing classic!

Good effort!!!!!!

[MrXYZ]

Books are offering 202 again for Spurs/OKC. I played the over in game 5 but not sure about pushing my luck in an elimination game.

[dmitean]

I think books are very simple - they get action from both sides and you can see it in every game because the total goes up and down, so they get plenty of action. They know that if they post 182 or something like that, there will be absolutely one sided action on the Under.
I took Over in three out of the four games in this series, but never would have taken them if the total was that high and many others as well.
Books get enough action on the Under I guess, so no need to adjust the lines.

I will be on the Under in Game 6 myself, so hope we get it done

[Catchn_Picks]

The Heat's stars are such front running biznitches. I used to like Wade and I have never been a Lebron hater, but these two are SO F-ing arrogant when they are winning (see last year against Dallas, and clowning Dirk for his cold, etc.) When you punch them in the nose though they get real quiet. Part of being a super star is being a killer. Jordan was a killer, Bird was a killer, Isiah was a killer, I can't stand him but Kobe is a killer. I think Wade used to be one, but these guys have become so damn pampered that they have lost their edge.

The danger's of in-game betting finally bit me last night, it was inevitable, I got Miami at -5 1/2 and when it dropped to -1 I hit them pretty big . Nothing bank roll busting, but it hurt. Nevertheless seeing the Heat lose was a consolation and hearing the kid so enthusiastically telling them "good game! Good effort!" as they walked off the court was F-ing classic!

It was a classic Red. The kid was so sincere and really tried to be a supportive fan. You could see that Lebron was not yet ready to receive the support. It kind of reminded me of the good ole days when life was a bit simpler and sportsmanship was valued a bit more than today.

[coachkap]

Interesting, but I think you need to elaborate you point. Can you expand and clarify?

If that was the case, then they are baiting you into taking the over by dangling such low totals after high scoring games because they lean under like I have. However, if true, they would be getting killed by over money. Sharps are betting unders and getting taken to the cleaners because of abnormal 60 point quarters like the 4th last night. If you look at each game, the under has basically lost each game because of one high scoring quarter. It's tough for any algorhythm to predict a 60 point quarter between these teams...especially the 4th quarter which has been historically the lowest point total quarter in the playoffs.

LTA... the way I look at it is, the totals for Games 2, 3, 4, and 5 were slightly low......(as you know, game 4 ended 89-89 and the total was 179.5, this was the UNDER game)... in games 4 and 5 when the books didn't adjust their game totals to reflect the fact that the games were finishing over 179.5 points... I kept wagering on the over...

IMO, With Bradley and Bosh unable to play.... the game totals should have been higher since each team would be without a starter with strong defensive skills. This to me should have raised the game totals and the totals really didn't reflect the fact that each team would be without a key player.

Miami's inability to defend Rondo and Garnett...

Another factor is that the Celtics are a championship team. Boston's getting hot at the right time! The Celtics are finding different ways to win each night...And, they are getting added points from Garnett, Rondo, and their bench.... I'll be the first to say that I underestimated their will to win!

This combination of factors has generated more points and two overtime games... It's hard to bet the UNDER in this series.... with all these uncertain conditions. Best of luck to you in the upcoming games..

[Catchn_Picks]

Agreed, but with everyone flaming on Miami's D right now, and the series on the line, Miami will NOT rely upon the success of their offense to keep this series alive. Too unpredictable. Bosh coming back. If you ever see an under in this series, imo, it would be right now.

And I want to bet another under with these two teams like I want to beat my head against a brick wall.