That is exactly why the Bobcats only have 5 wins all season...can't feel confident about any bet when you're on their side. I took the Bucks last night instead which worked out and great call on the over LTA...easy winner
Comment
IllyPhilly[DOC]
SBR MVP
07-18-10
2512
#6967
Originally posted by absolutkaos
wow....CHA opening at +16.5! that's gotta be the biggest line of the year so far....OKC is good but that line seems mighty steep...
Sixers -16/16.5 va bobcats earlier in the year. Winning the game by as much as 31 and just covers at the end by 17 PTs!
Comment
IllyPhilly[DOC]
SBR MVP
07-18-10
2512
#6968
I thought this wizard over 200 was lta's play already. I like this bet any how
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#6969
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/10/2012
Play #1
Jazz/Bulls over (192) 1x (Locked)
Very aggravated that I missed this one at 190 and 191, however, Pinny just juiced the 192.5 over at -109, but Legends continues to lay the 192. I was planning on waiting for this one to come back down, but the movement at Pinny makes me think it might stay in this range. I am playing it safe and jumping on the 192 now, which still leaves me with almost 3 points of value as I have this game set at 194.5. The Bulls will be playing without Deng and I think that will affect their defense more than their offense. When Deng is out, that means you see more of Korver. While Korver is a defensive liabilty, he can also be a big scoring threat when he gets in a rhythm. I expect Rose and the Bulls try to get Korver in a rhythm early, especially considering his added motivation of playing his old team. Neither team plays particularly fast ranked in the bottom 1/3 of PACE, but I think we see a bit quicker than average pace from these two teams tonight. Utah excels at points in the paint and fast-break points and efficiency, which should help in this game if they can get a few easy scores. The Bulls have not been a great under team like past years and the reason why has been their scoring efficiency against weak defenses and below .500 teams against whom they are 15-10 O/U. I thoroughly expect Rose, Boozer, Korver, and Co. to light up the scoreboard and eclipse the 102 mark. The question is whether Utah can get us 90+ and I think they will because this should not be a close game at the end or have the type of intensity which would lead to an under. The refs favor the over career-wise, if not this year, and we should get at least 50 foul shots tonight. If you look at Utah games from earlier this year against complete teams that excel at both offense and defense such as the Bulls, Heat, Dallas, OKC, Indy, et.al., all of the games with Utah went over 192 points. This is the second highest total for the Bulls this year, behind the 194.5 range in place when they faced the Bucks a few days ago. That one sailed over and I expect this one to hit into the high 190's as it seems the books are tipping their hands a bit with this one. I have this one set at 194.5 giving us almost 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Comment
groovybrandone
SBR Sharp
02-22-12
456
#6970
5dimes sitting at 193.5 already :/. Nice write up LTA, going to hope and see if I can get this alittle lower than what 5d is offering me. If not, i may buy down
Comment
eyesickk
SBR High Roller
02-20-12
160
#6971
LTA, you don't think the Jazz b2b and coming off a loss will affect their total?
Comment
ClausensHands
SBR Hustler
04-01-11
66
#6972
Anyone else see a bunch of these big home favs covering today?
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#6973
Originally posted by eyesickk
LTA, you don't think the Jazz b2b and coming off a loss will affect their total?
Ofcourse....I think it will lead to a higher scoring game based less defensive intensity and more focus on offense. Utah isn't the type of offense that depends on fresh legs to shoot three point shots, rather, a large percentage of their offense is derived at the rim which is generally more successful in fatigue spots. On b2b games this season, Utah is averaging a total just over 192 points. Utah has a poor defense to start with and that will only get worse on a b2b. I think we see this one get outta control early and the 2h is more like scrimmage basketball. I would not be surprised to see this one go over 200....
Comment
dynasty27
SBR Hustler
10-11-11
56
#6974
Originally posted by ClausensHands
Anyone else see a bunch of these big home favs covering today?
I'm liking Miami hosting Indy...They seem to have their number and match up well against them. Miami had a close call with ATL their last time out, but have had a couple days of rest and should come out with the intensity that was blowing teams out by 10+ just a week ago.
Comment
hotnapkinman
SBR High Roller
11-29-11
100
#6975
Hey bro new to your trend and u are great my man. By any chance u have a cbb trend ?
Comment
meader99
SBR MVP
10-30-10
4223
#6976
LTA, I was wondering the same thing, if you did NCAA basketball? One other thing, I have noticed that you are very disciplined in your thread. Do you only wager on games you release here in the thread or do you wager on other non-posted picks? Really makes no difference, I was just curious.
Comment
ClausensHands
SBR Hustler
04-01-11
66
#6977
Originally posted by dynasty27
I'm liking Miami hosting Indy...They seem to have their number and match up well against them. Miami had a close call with ATL their last time out, but have had a couple days of rest and should come out with the intensity that was blowing teams out by 10+ just a week ago.
I agree. Indiana looked completely lackluster in their last game against the Hawks, even though ATL shot the ball well the Pacers didn't show much defensive intensity. I don't see how they keep up with the Heat today. I like the Thunder and Bulls on their huge lines as well in comeback/statement games against inferior opponents.
Obviously rolling with LTA on his Bulls O. Good luck people
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#6978
Originally posted by meader99
LTA, I was wondering the same thing, if you did NCAA basketball? One other thing, I have noticed that you are very disciplined in your thread. Do you only wager on games you release here in the thread or do you wager on other non-posted picks? Really makes no difference, I was just curious.
No NCAAB....way too much variance for real investing.
All of my plays are posted publicly. I do not play anything that is not posted as a play or action play. GL
Comment
Pick'nParlays
SBR MVP
02-22-08
3134
#6979
hmmm this GS/Dallas game has caught my attention
Comment
pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#6980
Lta, bol today
pick and parlay please tell.
Comment
ClausensHands
SBR Hustler
04-01-11
66
#6981
Originally posted by Love The Action
No NCAAB....way too much variance for real investing.
All of my plays are posted publicly. I do not play anything that is not posted as a play or action play. GL
I typically agree, especially with the O/U's. But this time of year always seems to be much more profitable for NCAA dog lines in very contested games.
Much respect on your disciplined approach, that is a truly admirable quality in the world of sports betting. Also the perfect trait we would want from someone we are tailing
Comment
pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#6982
Lta, do you have any concerns with the trio of zebras
assigned to the bulls/jazz game 2 of 3 have a pretty strong
lean in the Under department?
Comment
Roto97
SBR High Roller
01-30-12
166
#6983
Looks like Luol Deng (wrist) and C.J. Watson (ankle) will both be game-time decisions on Saturday.
Comment
yankeekansan
SBR Hustler
10-07-11
97
#6984
Originally posted by Love The Action
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/10/2012
Play #1
Jazz/Bulls over (192) 1x (Locked)
Very aggravated that I missed this one at 190 and 191, however, Pinny just juiced the 192.5 over at -109, but Legends continues to lay the 192. I was planning on waiting for this one to come back down, but the movement at Pinny makes me think it might stay in this range. I am playing it safe and jumping on the 192 now, which still leaves me with almost 3 points of value as I have this game set at 194.5. The Bulls will be playing without Deng and I think that will affect their defense more than their offense. When Deng is out, that means you see more of Korver. While Korver is a defensive liabilty, he can also be a big scoring threat when he gets in a rhythm. I expect Rose and the Bulls try to get Korver in a rhythm early, especially considering his added motivation of playing his old team. Neither team plays particularly fast ranked in the bottom 1/3 of PACE, but I think we see a bit quicker than average pace from these two teams tonight. Utah excels at points in the paint and fast-break points and efficiency, which should help in this game if they can get a few easy scores. The Bulls have not been a great under team like past years and the reason why has been their scoring efficiency against weak defenses and below .500 teams against whom they are 15-10 O/U. I thoroughly expect Rose, Boozer, Korver, and Co. to light up the scoreboard and eclipse the 102 mark. The question is whether Utah can get us 90+ and I think they will because this should not be a close game at the end or have the type of intensity which would lead to an under. The refs favor the over career-wise, if not this year, and we should get at least 50 foul shots tonight. If you look at Utah games from earlier this year against complete teams that excel at both offense and defense such as the Bulls, Heat, Dallas, OKC, Indy, et.al., all of the games with Utah went over 192 points. This is the second highest total for the Bulls this year, behind the 194.5 range in place when they faced the Bucks a few days ago. That one sailed over and I expect this one to hit into the high 190's as it seems the books are tipping their hands a bit with this one. I have this one set at 194.5 giving us almost 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
When I first read this post, I jumped on 5dimes and they had it already up to 194.5...
Went to a meeting and had some lunch with the wife... came back home to see it back down to 192! We're now aboard the LTA express. GL2E
Comment
Arty
SBR Hustler
12-26-11
64
#6985
Love the pick on the Bulls/Jazz Over! I agree with you on the absence of Luol Deng being big for the Bulls as he's one of the best front court defenders in the league.
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#6986
My local just moved to +4 for the Mavs when Pinny juiced GSW up -3.5 (-110). That is an awful lot of value according to my model. However, that doesn't take into account injuries, lack of depth, fatigue and bad attitudes, all of which the Mavs face in this game. Still, lot of value on the Mavs at +4....
Comment
mikea33
SBR MVP
11-14-11
2149
#6987
Yeah i am taking Mavs. Why not, defiently worth a shot.
Liking anything else LTA?
Comment
JM92
SBR MVP
01-27-12
1140
#6988
Originally posted by Love The Action
My local just moved to +4 for the Mavs when Pinny juiced GSW up -3.5 (-110). That is an awful lot of value according to my model. However, that doesn't take into account injuries, lack of depth, fatigue and bad attitudes, all of which the Mavs face in this game. Still, lot of value on the Mavs at +4....
I'm enticing Warriors to be honest. What do you think of the over? Had I been able to lock it up at 192 it would be a bet already. I did get into the over 199.5 at Washington, pretty confident on that one.
As to the Warriors/Mavs game, Mavs really tired, I know they are team that shoots a lot, but I think their defense has another terrible spot here just like last night and they allow at least 100, therefore lots of value on the over.
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#6989
Originally posted by pacocn
Lta, do you have any concerns with the trio of zebras
assigned to the bulls/jazz game 2 of 3 have a pretty strong
lean in the Under department?
No, because I don't look at one season when I analyze a ref. I look at his full body of work over his whole career to tell me if I view him as an under or over leaning type guy. In this case, Fraher has been one of the more reliable over guys over the last 5 or so years and both Poole and Jones are pretty neutral. Plus, if you look at average fouls per game as opposed to just o/u stats which are not as reliable, you will see that Fraher and Poole historically average at or above 40 called fouls per game for game they ref. I think we should be ok as long as we get 40-45 total foul calls tonight and they hit at the league average or better.
Comment
ultrasouth
SBR MVP
12-23-10
1175
#6990
Thanx for your play lta.
nsw tab 190.5
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mikea33
SBR MVP
11-14-11
2149
#6991
any value on hornets or over in that one? no rubio. mabye out for the year depleting spot for minnesota
Comment
Dave88
SBR High Roller
06-09-11
130
#6992
Originally posted by ultrasouth
Thanx for your play lta.
nsw tab 190.5
Well that total is just set too low, gotta have me some of that.
Not the best price tho at -125 ($1.80)
GL.
Comment
fitguy67
SBR Hall of Famer
03-13-11
5082
#6993
on board the LTA (Long-Term Augmentation) Express...first destination: Chicago...vehicle#O192...departure time: 20:00/estimated arrival time: 22:30
They are shooting really well, but the turnovers are killing us. This Jazz team, when the second unit comes in specially, they just can't find their stride. They have Kanter and Favors at the same time on the floor and keep shooting jumpers.
Comment
Les_Nuts
SBR Wise Guy
02-01-12
931
#6999
Still think we got a decent shot at this - at HT live betting total was at 185.5 showing books expect a higher scoring half, let's just hope we get over 103. Boozer missing that easy basket at the half was very annoying, by far my least liked Bull - just dunk it already! Stop doing those lay ups, seen him miss far too many open baskets like that