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  • CheeseHead
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-03-10
    • 439

    #6966
    That is exactly why the Bobcats only have 5 wins all season...can't feel confident about any bet when you're on their side. I took the Bucks last night instead which worked out and great call on the over LTA...easy winner
    Comment
    • IllyPhilly[DOC]
      SBR MVP
      • 07-18-10
      • 2512

      #6967
      Originally posted by absolutkaos
      wow....CHA opening at +16.5! that's gotta be the biggest line of the year so far....OKC is good but that line seems mighty steep...
      Sixers -16/16.5 va bobcats earlier in the year. Winning the game by as much as 31 and just covers at the end by 17 PTs!
      Comment
      • IllyPhilly[DOC]
        SBR MVP
        • 07-18-10
        • 2512

        #6968
        I thought this wizard over 200 was lta's play already. I like this bet any how
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #6969
          NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/10/2012

          Play #1

          Jazz/Bulls over (192) 1x (Locked)

          Very aggravated that I missed this one at 190 and 191, however, Pinny just juiced the 192.5 over at -109, but Legends continues to lay the 192. I was planning on waiting for this one to come back down, but the movement at Pinny makes me think it might stay in this range. I am playing it safe and jumping on the 192 now, which still leaves me with almost 3 points of value as I have this game set at 194.5. The Bulls will be playing without Deng and I think that will affect their defense more than their offense. When Deng is out, that means you see more of Korver. While Korver is a defensive liabilty, he can also be a big scoring threat when he gets in a rhythm. I expect Rose and the Bulls try to get Korver in a rhythm early, especially considering his added motivation of playing his old team. Neither team plays particularly fast ranked in the bottom 1/3 of PACE, but I think we see a bit quicker than average pace from these two teams tonight. Utah excels at points in the paint and fast-break points and efficiency, which should help in this game if they can get a few easy scores. The Bulls have not been a great under team like past years and the reason why has been their scoring efficiency against weak defenses and below .500 teams against whom they are 15-10 O/U. I thoroughly expect Rose, Boozer, Korver, and Co. to light up the scoreboard and eclipse the 102 mark. The question is whether Utah can get us 90+ and I think they will because this should not be a close game at the end or have the type of intensity which would lead to an under. The refs favor the over career-wise, if not this year, and we should get at least 50 foul shots tonight. If you look at Utah games from earlier this year against complete teams that excel at both offense and defense such as the Bulls, Heat, Dallas, OKC, Indy, et.al., all of the games with Utah went over 192 points. This is the second highest total for the Bulls this year, behind the 194.5 range in place when they faced the Bucks a few days ago. That one sailed over and I expect this one to hit into the high 190's as it seems the books are tipping their hands a bit with this one. I have this one set at 194.5 giving us almost 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
          Comment
          • groovybrandone
            SBR Sharp
            • 02-22-12
            • 456

            #6970
            5dimes sitting at 193.5 already :/. Nice write up LTA, going to hope and see if I can get this alittle lower than what 5d is offering me. If not, i may buy down
            Comment
            • eyesickk
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-20-12
              • 160

              #6971
              LTA, you don't think the Jazz b2b and coming off a loss will affect their total?
              Comment
              • ClausensHands
                SBR Hustler
                • 04-01-11
                • 66

                #6972
                Anyone else see a bunch of these big home favs covering today?
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #6973
                  Originally posted by eyesickk
                  LTA, you don't think the Jazz b2b and coming off a loss will affect their total?
                  Ofcourse....I think it will lead to a higher scoring game based less defensive intensity and more focus on offense. Utah isn't the type of offense that depends on fresh legs to shoot three point shots, rather, a large percentage of their offense is derived at the rim which is generally more successful in fatigue spots. On b2b games this season, Utah is averaging a total just over 192 points. Utah has a poor defense to start with and that will only get worse on a b2b. I think we see this one get outta control early and the 2h is more like scrimmage basketball. I would not be surprised to see this one go over 200....
                  Comment
                  • dynasty27
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 10-11-11
                    • 56

                    #6974
                    Originally posted by ClausensHands
                    Anyone else see a bunch of these big home favs covering today?
                    I'm liking Miami hosting Indy...They seem to have their number and match up well against them. Miami had a close call with ATL their last time out, but have had a couple days of rest and should come out with the intensity that was blowing teams out by 10+ just a week ago.
                    Comment
                    • hotnapkinman
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-29-11
                      • 100

                      #6975
                      Hey bro new to your trend and u are great my man. By any chance u have a cbb trend ?
                      Comment
                      • meader99
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-30-10
                        • 4223

                        #6976
                        LTA, I was wondering the same thing, if you did NCAA basketball? One other thing, I have noticed that you are very disciplined in your thread. Do you only wager on games you release here in the thread or do you wager on other non-posted picks? Really makes no difference, I was just curious.
                        Comment
                        • ClausensHands
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 04-01-11
                          • 66

                          #6977
                          Originally posted by dynasty27
                          I'm liking Miami hosting Indy...They seem to have their number and match up well against them. Miami had a close call with ATL their last time out, but have had a couple days of rest and should come out with the intensity that was blowing teams out by 10+ just a week ago.
                          I agree. Indiana looked completely lackluster in their last game against the Hawks, even though ATL shot the ball well the Pacers didn't show much defensive intensity. I don't see how they keep up with the Heat today. I like the Thunder and Bulls on their huge lines as well in comeback/statement games against inferior opponents.

                          Obviously rolling with LTA on his Bulls O. Good luck people
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #6978
                            Originally posted by meader99
                            LTA, I was wondering the same thing, if you did NCAA basketball? One other thing, I have noticed that you are very disciplined in your thread. Do you only wager on games you release here in the thread or do you wager on other non-posted picks? Really makes no difference, I was just curious.
                            No NCAAB....way too much variance for real investing.

                            All of my plays are posted publicly. I do not play anything that is not posted as a play or action play. GL
                            Comment
                            • Pick'nParlays
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-22-08
                              • 3134

                              #6979
                              hmmm this GS/Dallas game has caught my attention
                              Comment
                              • pacocn
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-05-10
                                • 12934

                                #6980
                                Lta, bol today
                                pick and parlay please tell.
                                Comment
                                • ClausensHands
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 04-01-11
                                  • 66

                                  #6981
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  No NCAAB....way too much variance for real investing.

                                  All of my plays are posted publicly. I do not play anything that is not posted as a play or action play. GL
                                  I typically agree, especially with the O/U's. But this time of year always seems to be much more profitable for NCAA dog lines in very contested games.

                                  Much respect on your disciplined approach, that is a truly admirable quality in the world of sports betting. Also the perfect trait we would want from someone we are tailing
                                  Comment
                                  • pacocn
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-05-10
                                    • 12934

                                    #6982
                                    Lta, do you have any concerns with the trio of zebras
                                    assigned to the bulls/jazz game 2 of 3 have a pretty strong
                                    lean in the Under department?
                                    Comment
                                    • Roto97
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 01-30-12
                                      • 166

                                      #6983
                                      Looks like Luol Deng (wrist) and C.J. Watson (ankle) will both be game-time decisions on Saturday.
                                      Comment
                                      • yankeekansan
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 10-07-11
                                        • 97

                                        #6984
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/10/2012

                                        Play #1

                                        Jazz/Bulls over (192) 1x (Locked)

                                        Very aggravated that I missed this one at 190 and 191, however, Pinny just juiced the 192.5 over at -109, but Legends continues to lay the 192. I was planning on waiting for this one to come back down, but the movement at Pinny makes me think it might stay in this range. I am playing it safe and jumping on the 192 now, which still leaves me with almost 3 points of value as I have this game set at 194.5. The Bulls will be playing without Deng and I think that will affect their defense more than their offense. When Deng is out, that means you see more of Korver. While Korver is a defensive liabilty, he can also be a big scoring threat when he gets in a rhythm. I expect Rose and the Bulls try to get Korver in a rhythm early, especially considering his added motivation of playing his old team. Neither team plays particularly fast ranked in the bottom 1/3 of PACE, but I think we see a bit quicker than average pace from these two teams tonight. Utah excels at points in the paint and fast-break points and efficiency, which should help in this game if they can get a few easy scores. The Bulls have not been a great under team like past years and the reason why has been their scoring efficiency against weak defenses and below .500 teams against whom they are 15-10 O/U. I thoroughly expect Rose, Boozer, Korver, and Co. to light up the scoreboard and eclipse the 102 mark. The question is whether Utah can get us 90+ and I think they will because this should not be a close game at the end or have the type of intensity which would lead to an under. The refs favor the over career-wise, if not this year, and we should get at least 50 foul shots tonight. If you look at Utah games from earlier this year against complete teams that excel at both offense and defense such as the Bulls, Heat, Dallas, OKC, Indy, et.al., all of the games with Utah went over 192 points. This is the second highest total for the Bulls this year, behind the 194.5 range in place when they faced the Bucks a few days ago. That one sailed over and I expect this one to hit into the high 190's as it seems the books are tipping their hands a bit with this one. I have this one set at 194.5 giving us almost 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                                        When I first read this post, I jumped on 5dimes and they had it already up to 194.5...

                                        Went to a meeting and had some lunch with the wife... came back home to see it back down to 192! We're now aboard the LTA express. GL2E
                                        Comment
                                        • Arty
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 12-26-11
                                          • 64

                                          #6985
                                          Love the pick on the Bulls/Jazz Over! I agree with you on the absence of Luol Deng being big for the Bulls as he's one of the best front court defenders in the league.
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #6986
                                            My local just moved to +4 for the Mavs when Pinny juiced GSW up -3.5 (-110). That is an awful lot of value according to my model. However, that doesn't take into account injuries, lack of depth, fatigue and bad attitudes, all of which the Mavs face in this game. Still, lot of value on the Mavs at +4....
                                            Comment
                                            • mikea33
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-14-11
                                              • 2149

                                              #6987
                                              Yeah i am taking Mavs. Why not, defiently worth a shot.

                                              Liking anything else LTA?
                                              Comment
                                              • JM92
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-27-12
                                                • 1140

                                                #6988
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                My local just moved to +4 for the Mavs when Pinny juiced GSW up -3.5 (-110). That is an awful lot of value according to my model. However, that doesn't take into account injuries, lack of depth, fatigue and bad attitudes, all of which the Mavs face in this game. Still, lot of value on the Mavs at +4....
                                                I'm enticing Warriors to be honest. What do you think of the over? Had I been able to lock it up at 192 it would be a bet already. I did get into the over 199.5 at Washington, pretty confident on that one.

                                                As to the Warriors/Mavs game, Mavs really tired, I know they are team that shoots a lot, but I think their defense has another terrible spot here just like last night and they allow at least 100, therefore lots of value on the over.
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #6989
                                                  Originally posted by pacocn
                                                  Lta, do you have any concerns with the trio of zebras
                                                  assigned to the bulls/jazz game 2 of 3 have a pretty strong
                                                  lean in the Under department?
                                                  No, because I don't look at one season when I analyze a ref. I look at his full body of work over his whole career to tell me if I view him as an under or over leaning type guy. In this case, Fraher has been one of the more reliable over guys over the last 5 or so years and both Poole and Jones are pretty neutral. Plus, if you look at average fouls per game as opposed to just o/u stats which are not as reliable, you will see that Fraher and Poole historically average at or above 40 called fouls per game for game they ref. I think we should be ok as long as we get 40-45 total foul calls tonight and they hit at the league average or better.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ultrasouth
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-23-10
                                                    • 1175

                                                    #6990
                                                    Thanx for your play lta.

                                                    nsw tab 190.5
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mikea33
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-14-11
                                                      • 2149

                                                      #6991
                                                      any value on hornets or over in that one? no rubio. mabye out for the year depleting spot for minnesota
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dave88
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 06-09-11
                                                        • 130

                                                        #6992
                                                        Originally posted by ultrasouth
                                                        Thanx for your play lta.

                                                        nsw tab 190.5
                                                        Well that total is just set too low, gotta have me some of that.
                                                        Not the best price tho at -125 ($1.80)
                                                        GL.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #6993
                                                          on board the LTA (Long-Term Augmentation) Express...first destination: Chicago...vehicle#O192...departure time: 20:00/estimated arrival time: 22:30
                                                          Last edited by fitguy67; 03-10-12, 08:51 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Pick'nParlays
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-22-08
                                                            • 3134

                                                            #6994
                                                            191.....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mbs4
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 05-14-10
                                                              • 388

                                                              #6995
                                                              Joakim Noah, Watson, Deng and Rip all out.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • meader99
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-30-10
                                                                • 4223

                                                                #6996
                                                                No Noah!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pick'nParlays
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-22-08
                                                                  • 3134

                                                                  #6997
                                                                  89 first half
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JM92
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-27-12
                                                                    • 1140

                                                                    #6998
                                                                    They are shooting really well, but the turnovers are killing us. This Jazz team, when the second unit comes in specially, they just can't find their stride. They have Kanter and Favors at the same time on the floor and keep shooting jumpers.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Les_Nuts
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 02-01-12
                                                                      • 931

                                                                      #6999
                                                                      Still think we got a decent shot at this - at HT live betting total was at 185.5 showing books expect a higher scoring half, let's just hope we get over 103. Boozer missing that easy basket at the half was very annoying, by far my least liked Bull - just dunk it already! Stop doing those lay ups, seen him miss far too many open baskets like that
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • my6sen
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 09-27-10
                                                                        • 285

                                                                        #7000
                                                                        4 min 14
                                                                        point we hope for overtime
                                                                        Comment
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