LTA's NBA Plays

hawley · 03-11-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by chief42

Thanks for the insight, maybe I should have worded it better. Out of 5dimes, Bovada, Bet365,BetOnline, which one offers the most live action? Also, if possible, which one is the most trustworthy in terms of payout. I've been a member of 5d for a while and have had no problems with them. Any feedback would be much appreciated.

bet365 without a doubt in terms of live options

Catchn_Picks · 03-11-12, 04:32 PM

Killer third quarter for under bettors. Need major help now.

fitguy67 · 03-11-12, 04:43 PM

hawley's right about bet365...largest availability (in terms of both bettable games...and variety of bets related to individual games)...and their cashier is superb (if u use an ewallet like moneybookers...it's always less than 24 hours)...i've withdrawn many many times from there with no incidents

mikea33 · 03-11-12, 04:49 PM

fuckin toast. was a great play just % at the end.

No coincidences · 03-11-12, 04:50 PM

Kiss of death LTA. You know what I'm talking about.

Pick'nParlays · 03-11-12, 04:53 PM

wow this went dirty in a quick second.

chief42 · 03-11-12, 05:00 PM

Thanks guys, appreciate it!

Dmil · 03-11-12, 05:01 PM

Yeah I know.

latinrus · 03-11-12, 05:11 PM

had U190.5 on live, and they still f**d me!

TC Woods · 03-11-12, 06:22 PM

I'm on Memp/Denver O199 1/2.... anyone else?

smarotta09 · 03-11-12, 06:23 PM

on the over as well

Love The Action · 03-11-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/11/2012

Play #1

Sixers (+3) 1x (Locked)

Philly has a statistical advantage on both offense and defense in some of the most important and controlling categories. They are dominate across the board in both the offensive and defensive "four factors." Here we have another matchup that gives us defensive strengths versus offensive strengths with Philly's defensive prowess at deferring shots at the rim and efficiency at the perimeter against the high pace of NY and three point assault. The situational factors also point to Philly or otherwise cancel out. Both teams need this game and when people say it's a must win for NY, I can say the same for Philly. Both teams are rested, but Philly is playing with revenge from earlier this year and last year. More than anything, however, this is a statistical play with Philly dominating NY across the board and I have to trust my model. I have the Sixers set at a +0.5 giving us about 2.5 points of value and I'm rolling with Philly for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Celtics/Lakers under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

This one scares me on multiple levels. We cashed the last under in this matchup last month despite OT. We had that one at 177 and it closed around 174. In this game, the books opened up at 180 and it's up to 180.5. So are they telling us they expect a higher scoring game or are they simply accounting for the recent play of both teams. For the most part, both teams have been playing better offensive basketball as of late. However, the defensive stats still dominate this matchup and the overall offensive stats pale in comparison. Doc has been urging his troops to play fast lately so that is another concern, but in this matchup I expect both teams to revert back to what is most comfortable to them: half-court sets and a methodical pace. Both teams are dominate defensive clubs and both coaches stress defense first so I have no reason not to think the same will happen today. The refs are rather neutral with Crawford, Blair and Wood so I have no reason to expect an abnormal amount of calls. Bottom line is this is a classic high-intensity, playoff-atmosphere under type matchup and if I see value, I will generally make this play. In this case, I have the total set at 176 giving us over two fg's of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Warriors/Clippers over (198.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a matchup of offense versus defense in strike contrast to play #2. In this matchup, we see two of the top 10 teams in OEFF against two of the bottom 10 teams in DEFF. The Clippers don't play at a fast pace, but are efficient with the possessions they have, whereas GSW has been running since mid-January and also plays efficiently. In this game, GSW is on a b2b but the travel was minimal going from the coast to LA. I don't see fatigue being an issue for GSW on offense, especially considering all of their starters played limited minutes due to their blowout win last night (even Ellis was only at 31 mins). I think we see two teams that choose to light it up tonight rather than try to play lock-down D. The ref assignments are acceptable with Stafford, Fehr and Richardson. I have this game set at 203 giving us over four points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Nuggets (-6) 1x (Locked)

Was hoping this one would drop down to 5.5 for a possible buy-down to 6, but it's clearly not moving. This one is a clear situational play with the Nuggz getting healthy, playing with revenge and facing a Grizz team on b2b playing in altitude. I have this game set at -6 so there's not a ton of value here, but I think we will see Lawson run that Grizzlies defense ragged. If you look at the Grizzlies starters minutes last night, Gasol, Gay and Conley were all right at 40 minutes or more. It's going to be tough to withstand the offensive onslaught from one of the best teams in OEFF, EFG%, points in the paint, FG% at the rim, etc. Usually, Memphis has a big advantage in TOV% both offensively and defensively, but Denver is not too far behind them in either. Make no mistake, Denver has a sneaky defense that is adept at steals. Memphis has beaten Denver twice this year already, the most recent as -4.5 faves at home. A normal adjustment would see Denver at -2. However, if you adjust for Galinari being out in that game and the b2b, it's clear the books are favoring Denver in this spot and begging for Memphis money. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

Notorious_Donk · 03-11-12, 06:51 PM

Let's get it LTA!

mikea33 · 03-11-12, 07:04 PM

just got it in! Lets hit these 2....please god!

JM92 · 03-11-12, 07:17 PM

Completely missed that game tonight. Didn't even knew it was on the board. Wow

Lets get the win!

hondo5 · 03-11-12, 07:44 PM

I'm playing this over with you guys tonight. Thanks for the picks PTA.

Sixla · 03-11-12, 07:45 PM

Good to see u on the Nuggz also!! Let's finish the night with a couple wins!!

crazed · 03-11-12, 08:07 PM

LTA, you still liking the clippers over?
thanks

eyesickk · 03-11-12, 08:12 PM

Curry out. This affect the play on the over?

Catchn_Picks · 03-11-12, 08:14 PM

Denver -3 second half bet is available for those who missed the play at -6 for the game.

dymd3z · 03-11-12, 08:17 PM

Denver -3 2h or over 98.5 which is the better play?

Speedy88 · 03-11-12, 08:24 PM

what is with stephen curry, isn't this like his fourth sprained ankle this season?

dlunc3 · 03-11-12, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by dymd3z

Denver -3 2h or over 98.5 which is the better play?

not saying its the right play, but id go -3 over the over... bol on your decision

dlunc3 · 03-11-12, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

what is with stephen curry, isn't this like his fourth sprained ankle this season?

he is a china doll....

i think nate can come in and light it up with the best of them though

Love The Action · 03-11-12, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by eyesickk

Curry out. This affect the play on the over?

No....he hasn't been a consistent part of their offense and I expect Robinson and co. to do the job. Do you have a link? Everything I see says he's still probable. Thanks.

dlunc3 · 03-11-12, 08:32 PM

Per 3 sources on twitter:

Curry will start tonight

Love The Action · 03-11-12, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

Per 3 sources on twitter:

Curry will start tonight

Yeah, everything I have seen all day had him at probable. Too much false information being passed around these forums. Not that it matters, would have liked the play with or without him.

Catchn_Picks · 03-11-12, 09:00 PM

10 points in 16 minutes of play last night against Dallas...Curry wasn't a big factor anyway. I think the system sets up an uptempo pace. I just hope the Clippers reciprocate.

remypom · 03-11-12, 09:06 PM

Common scoring!!! How does second half clippers look lta?

mikea33 · 03-11-12, 09:08 PM

Clippers really **** me night in and night out, everytime there part of a play i cant hit. THeres always that 1 team in every sport.
not saying this is done, just i hate the clippers

remypom · 03-11-12, 09:48 PM

Clippers 2nd half -8 or over 98

dymd3z · 03-11-12, 09:54 PM

I like the over.. Not sure about playing Clippers -8 though..

Catchn_Picks · 03-11-12, 09:56 PM

Gotta figure that GSWs are going to try to blow the Clips out of the building. I think the over is there for the taking.

Catchn_Picks · 03-11-12, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Gotta figure that GSWs are going to try to blow the Clips out of the building. I think the over is there for the taking.

Does anybody know what stupid guy gave this prediction?

my6sen · 03-11-12, 10:39 PM

dont worry i just call lasvegas game will be over 4q 56 point