LTA's NBA Plays

[Kurtz]

Can somebody tell me what sportsbook that is on noregrets line post? Thanks...I appreciate it!

[yankeekansan]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

Heat
Bulls

Thunder
Mavs
Lakers

2 tiers and the winner will most likely come out of the East.

[yankeekansan]

When your guys' books open up Tuesday's sides and totals, please cut and paste them here so we can get a jump on the rest of the market.

Please also remember to be conservative with the amount of plays immediately following the break as you often see inconsistent play and unpredictable results the first couple days back. GL.

02/28 7:05 PM
701 Boston
702 Cleveland
-3-110
180u-110 -3.5-110
184½u-110 -3.5-110
184½u-110 -3.5-110
-4-110
184u-110 -3.5-110
184½u-110
02/28 7:05 PM
703 Golden State
704 Indiana

202u-110
-5.5 -110 202u-110
-5 -110
-5.5 -110 201u-110
-5.5 -110 202u-110
-5 -110
02/28 7:35 PM
705 Philadelphia
706 Detroit

-4-110
182u-110 -4-110
182u-110 -3.5-110
-4-110
182u-110 -4-110
182u-110
02/28 8:05 PM
707 Toronto
708 Houston
191½u-110
-10 -110 190u-110
-9.5 -110 190u-110
-9.5 -110
-9.5 -110 190u-110
-9.5 -110 190u-110
-9.5 -110
02/28 8:05 PM
709 New Orleans
710 Chicago

180u-110
-13.5 -110 180u-110
-13.5 -110
-13 -110 180½u-110
-13.5 -110 180u-110
-13.5 -110
02/28 8:05 PM
711 Washington
712 Milwaukee

200½u-110
-8 -110 201u-110
-8 -110
-7.5 -110 200½u-110
-8 -110 201u-110
-8 -110
02/28 8:35 PM
713 New Jersey
714 Dallas
187½u-110
-10.5 -110 188½u-110
-10.5 -110 188½u-110
-10.5 -110
-10.5 -110 188½u-110
-10.5 -110 188½u-110
-10.5 -110
02/28 10:05 PM
715 Utah
716 Sacramento
199u-110
-2 -110 203u-110
-2 -110 203u-110
-2 -110
-2 -110 202u-110
-1.5 -110 203u-110
-2 -110
02/28 10:35 PM
717 Minnesota
718 L.A. Clippers
196½u-110
-7.5 -110 196½u-110
-6.5 -110 196½u-110
-6.5 -110
-6.5 -110 197u-110
-7 -110 196½u-110
-6.5 -110

[Pivotpoint]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

Bulls
Heat
Thunder
Mavs
Spurs

Clippers could be dangerous, but need to improve on the road to be a real contender. Should be an interesting 2nd half.

[NOREGRETS]

Can somebody tell me what sportsbook that is on noregrets line post? Thanks...I appreciate it!

I have no problem answering this, however am a little curious as to why you would like to know?

[NOREGRETS]

Any "early" lines jump out LTA?

[meader99]

They lost 4-1 last season. Deng didn't play because he's got a bad injury that's not going anywhere soon. Im not saying they can't make it a series, I just don't see how they win it.

Agreed. I don't think the Bulls did enough to address the issues they had scoring in the last 4 minutes of games against the Heat. Lebron is quick enough to keep Rose in front of him and long enough to disrupt the jumper. He may be the only guy in the league that can guard Rose one on one. As a Bulls fan it was hard to watch the Bulls offense down the stretch and when the Heat needed a basket, they had multiple guys that were able to get easy baskets against the supposed superior defensive team. The Bulls caught the Heat in a letdown spot in Game 1, otherwise it would have been a sweep. All that said, I see the Heat and Bulls in the ECF and the Heat prevail in 6 games.

[Kurtz]

I have no problem answering this, however am a little curious as to why you would like to know?

Because it's the same layout that my local online book uses and I've always wondered where they got their lines from. Thanks Again!

[Kurtz]

LTA : just got my copy of Conquering Risk - used SBR points to buy a copy so it was "free". Great book. Thanks for the recommendation. Learning so much from the book and yourself. Really appreciate it.

Great read! Took LTA's advice and it was certainly a wise investment of my time. The electronic version is available on Google Books for only $9.99.

[NOREGRETS]

Because it's the same layout that my local online book uses and I've always wondered where they got their lines from. Thanks Again!

Betbigcity

Let's keep the grind in the direction that favors

[M.W.]

Hmm..

1. Miami heat
2. Miami Heat
3. Miami Heat
4. Miami Heat
5... The Mavs?

Honestly, I just cant see anyone beat the Heat. Not the Bulls for sure, sorry LTA hope you still let me into your picks eheh. They're playing amazing D, runin' everyone off the court and hey, when it comes to their shady half-court sets, they got Lebron, Bosh and Wade, so they will probably be fine just like last year. And guess what, 2 other big names peoples always talk about for a title: Thunder and Bulls. They might be even worse than Miami in what concerns half-court offense, and while the Thunder have 1x1 power with Durant, westbrook and Harden their defense is not good enough. And the Bulls only have Rose.

I got a couple outsiders in the West, I really feel like the Clippers and the Spurs motivated by last years short-comings might make a big run, but in the end I have it Bulls vs Heat and Mavericks vs Thunder (if possible). Just don't see it any other way. I've actually guessed right the 08, 09, and 11' champions so. And I had Boston to take it home in 2010 and we all know how that ended up.

That all sounds about right to me.

[Kurtz]

Betbigcity

Let's keep the grind in the direction that favors

[JM92]

Agreed. I don't think the Bulls did enough to address the issues they had scoring in the last 4 minutes of games against the Heat. Lebron is quick enough to keep Rose in front of him and long enough to disrupt the jumper. He may be the only guy in the league that can guard Rose one on one. As a Bulls fan it was hard to watch the Bulls offense down the stretch and when the Heat needed a basket, they had multiple guys that were able to get easy baskets against the supposed superior defensive team. The Bulls caught the Heat in a letdown spot in Game 1, otherwise it would have been a sweep. All that said, I see the Heat and Bulls in the ECF and the Heat prevail in 6 games.

Actually Im not really a fan of any franchise in the East, so I know I can really come clean here.. I love the Celtics team but I'm realistic to know they are done. I kind actually like to root for the Heat just 'cause I'd like to see Lebron get a ring. But damn I hate those uniforms and Spoelstra.

Just adding a little extra to this subject, you can say @ max, the Heat lost one big game so far this season... and won like 15 of them. That's impressive.

Now, on to betting... loving the Pacers - 5.0 right now. Just to good and the Warriors have a game the next day, I see the Pacers getting an early lead and just pounding on them throughout. Gonna go to bed now though, will lock it in the morning if I can still get 5 or 5.5. GL everyone

[Love The Action]

FWIW...


a quik way to convert from decimal (D) to american-style (A) odds

If D>=2.000 A=(D-1)*100 [ie. subtract one from the decimal odds and move the decimal two places to the right]

If D < 2.000 A= -100/(D-1) [ divide 100 by "one less than the decimal odds" and put a negative sign in front]

______________________

Again FWIW, one extremely useful feature of the Decimal format is that

1/D ["the reciprocal of the decimal odds"] tell us the implied win% of this bet

eg. for plays at -130 --> D=1.7692, so probability of the bet winning, implied by the book is 56.53% [1/(1.7692)]

meaning any win percentage above 56.53% on any number of -130 bets would beat the book, any win% less than that would lose.

(my two cents...actually 6 sbr-points...worth for the day)

__________________

So if you're looking for value, estimate as accurately as possible the % of times the event you like would occur if it could be played many times in identical "parallel universes"....then take the reciprocal of your estimated win%...that's the odds that you'd expect to "break even" with...and look for an "edge" =a book's decimal odds being considerably higher than what you just calculated...

<(your perceived win%)/(book's implied win%)-1> or equivalently [(book's decimal odds)/("your" perceived decimal odds) - 1]** tells you your expected yield if you took that bet repeatedly

btw, the %-edge that you reckon you have on this play at this odds is roughly (but not exactly...but close enough for my purposes here) equivalent to the full "kelly criterion" optimum bet-size..a bet with a bigger % edge=>a bigger bet...so when someone savvy like LTA puts on a 1.5x or 2x play you can bet his perceived edge is 50% or 100% larger than his usual play (eg. 4.5% or 6% perceived edge vs his usual 3%-ish edge for regular plays)...whether quantified explicitly like this or not, it is such considerations that constitute differing levels of "confidence"

Example time... you cap a game to win 60% of the time (ie. "your" implied break-even odds are thus 1/0.60=1.6667 or -150...the book odds are 1.7692 or -130 (ie. the book "figures" the probability to be 56.53%)...your perceived edge can easily be calculated as the ratio of the win% 60/56.53 less 1= a very attractive 6.1% (or alternatively, and even more handily...which is what I like about decimal odds format by 1.7692/1.6667).<you can="" also="" calculate="" this="" conveniently="" using="" decimal="" (but="" not="" american="" odds...thus,="" 1.7692="" 1.6667="" less="" 1="6.1%" again="">

side note: a full-kelly bettor would pound this at just about 6% bank (the optimal full-kelly percentage is under most circumstances very nearly the same thing as the edge that can be calculated as a simple ratio (of win%'s or of decimal odds as above)...a more conservative long-term more "crash-resistant" approach is a fraction of this edge...eg. a half-kelly bet would be 3%of bank, quarter-kelly 1.5% of the bank for this bet

nuff said for 6 measly sbr points (30c in "street value)...lol
</you>

A lot of great concepts in here

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/28/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Bucks over (200) 1x (Locked)

This is one of the games I have been eyeing since I capped the card last night and jumped on 200 when my local opened up in the late afternoon. These teams last played very early in the season at the end of December on a total set at 186.5 and the game stayed under by a 3 points, despite a PACE of 94.5. The reason that game stayed so far under is because Washington shot under 35% and such futility will be hard for them to repeat, despite their inconsistency. In this game, the books are opening up almost 14 points more that the closer for the previous game and that big of adjustment might just be them tipping their hand. Both teams are to 12 in PACE and possession per game, while very poor on defense. This is especially true when you consider that Washington ranks top 5 in points in the paint, fasbreak points per game and fastbreak efficiency, while the Bucks are in the bottom 1/3 of those defensive categories. Despite this being a Scott Skiles team, they are not playing his typical brand of defense and I don't expect them to start on Tuesday. With Jennings facing up against Wall, I expect them to pus the ball up and down the court and turn this into a score-first type game. I have this game set at 203.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hornets/Bulls under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the over 180 at -110 and my local is posting 180.5. Even though I would really like to get the key number of 181 on this play, I am going to jump on this number now because I really don't see this one getting up that high. I think any number at 180 above is a solid play in this game. This play is the opposite of Play #1, whereas we expect a fast pace in that game, in this game we expect a much slower pace. This is the first game back for these two teams and they might be just a bit a rusty with so many reserves playing for New Orleans despite Jack being back in the lineup. Chicago's defense can be stifling at home and even though their offense is improved this year, I don't see them exploding tomorrow even if Rip plays. In the last game between these teams a few weeks ago, Chicago won 90-67. Generally, when a team scores under 70 like NO, I look for them to have a rebound performance in the next matchup. However, in this case, while I can see NO scoring more than 67, I do not see them scoring more than 85, especially when we can expect a PACE at 88 or less. I think this one will be close, but I think there's enough value here to take a shot. I have this game set at 177 giving us over 3 points of variance between my number and the books. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

[SlickRick1382]

5 Dimes doesn't have the Bulls game up but has every other one, damn ......

[WVU9494]

Cool just started following this, solid analysis

[bmur714]

5 Dimes doesn't have the Bulls game up but has every other one, damn ......

It was up about 8 hours ago at 179.5

[Love The Action]

5 Dimes doesn't have the Bulls game up but has every other one, damn ......

Weird...5 dimes had this one up since afternoon. It was at 180 from late afternoon until about an hour after I posted my play.

<table class="data" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" align="left"><tbody><tr class="info_line_alternate1"><td class="left" width="109">02/27 11:55 PM</td><td width="86">179½ -110</td><td width="86">179½ -110</td></tr><tr class="info_line_alternate1"><td class="left" width="109">02/27 04:53 PM</td><td width="86">180 -110</td><td width="86">180 -110</td></tr><tr class="info_line_alternate1"><td class="left" width="109">02/27 03:58 PM</td><td width="86">179½ -110</td><td width="86">179½ -110</td></tr><tr class="info_line_alternate1"><td class="left" width="109">02/27 03:06 PM</td><td width="86">179 -110</td><td width="86">179 -110</td></tr></tbody></table>

[fitguy67]

One of the things i'm starting to learn from you, LTA (and your core of sharp regulars) is the importance of "shopping for"...not just "putting on" bets. Tonight was a conceptual "breakthru"...i discovered the logic behind LTA's line-shopping religion.

About 30 minutes ago i went to Pinny to "put on" my two LTA plays and found the WAS/MIL o200at the typical (for pinny) price of 1.917 (which we ALL know is -109.05= -100/0.917...which is pinny's 0.4% discounted version of the -110 or 1.909 "standard" price). Your capping obviously suggests a probability of the game going over 200 points to be greater than the 1/1.909=52.38% implied by this standard price with enough edge to justify a standard-sized bet. So i locked it in.

But when i went to "put on" bet #2, the NOR/CHI u180.5, i found that this was, as you say, "juiced" up (in the American sense of larger and larger negative numbers)...in decimal it means that the usual 1.909 standard payout on a $1 bet has gone way down to 1.84 ( or juiced "up" to -119=-100/0.84 in the American sense.) Normally I'd just "bite" and say Fukit...but after finally sorting thru exactly how this probability and yield stuff are directly linked to odds when i put together yesterday's post...i stopped and finally saw, REALLY saw that if i make a habit of taking crappy prices I can have the identical wlp record as you and be considerably worse off units wise...cuz the implied win % i'd need on plays like this would have jumped considerably...from the 52.38% standard mentioned above to 54.35%....doesn't seem like much...but it means habitually accepting a crappy price like -119 instead of -110 hurts your %yield by a whopping -3.6% [(52.38/54.35)-1] or, even easier to calculate, as [(1.84/1.909)-1]...

-3.6% (out of the tens/hundreds of $k bet over an entire season WITH THE EXACT SAME W-L-P RECORD...is a lot of escarole to consider.

Anyhow, LTA...I have seen the light...If i'm a lazy knucklehead and take all your plays as written but at whatever price i can get (and at Pinny it's just too damn easy to buy as many points as you "need" to tail someoone!)...then, when i go to "put on" your play i'll be too lazy/impatient to "shop for" the value you always are clear about: that is, you always say/imply get the mentioned play at -110 or better...don't settle for a worse price such as -119 in this instance)...

anyhow..if i don't mature as a bettor and become a choosy line-shopper, then i'm, as my dad used to say "shitting in my own pocket". You and people who have habitually insisted on good prices and who have had the discipline to "stay out" when they couldn't get or missed a good deal on the desired play...over a season I may have experienced the exact same wlp sequence as you guys who've enjoyed a nice 3% ROI...and i have a crappy -0.6% result for all my troubles.

Now I FINALLY "get it"...thanks for patiently stressing that it's not just the plays you put on...it's the prices that your get them at...that article at pinny you linked us to a few days ago was very helpful on explaining why/how you could be happy with your plays, win OR lose as long as you continually beat the market close.

A very long winded way to say that i didn't "get" the NOR/CHI play yet...but I didn't "get sucked in" prematurely yet either...cuz the value you saw when you capped this game exists at u180.5@-110 or better but has evaporated (and possibly gone -eV) at worse prices. I also now understand that once you have successfully locked in a play at a good value...movements that would have been "bad" as a shopper...now become "good" in the sense that they help "confirm" your play....cuz they indicate the pressure/"steam" of others wanting what you already have...and taking worse and worse deals...just like you used to do before you found LTA-inspired "line-shopping" religion.

Hallelujah

[Jago2008]

A lot of great concepts in here

Yes man well said.

[Jago2008]

FWIW...


a quik way to convert from decimal (D) to american-style (A) odds

If D>=2.000 A=(D-1)*100 [ie. subtract one from the decimal odds and move the decimal two places to the right]

If D < 2.000 A= -100/(D-1) [ divide 100 by "one less than the decimal odds" and put a negative sign in front]

______________________

Again FWIW, one extremely useful feature of the Decimal format is that

1/D ["the reciprocal of the decimal odds"] tell us the implied win% of this bet

eg. for plays at -130 --> D=1.7692, so probability of the bet winning, implied by the book is 56.53% [1/(1.7692)]

meaning any win percentage above 56.53% on any number of -130 bets would beat the book, any win% less than that would lose.

(my two cents...actually 6 sbr-points...worth for the day)

__________________

So if you're looking for value, estimate as accurately as possible the % of times the event you like would occur if it could be played many times in identical "parallel universes"....then take the reciprocal of your estimated win%...that's the odds that you'd expect to "break even" with...and look for an "edge" =a book's decimal odds being considerably higher than what you just calculated...

<(your perceived win%)/(book's implied win%)-1> or equivalently [(book's decimal odds)/("your" perceived decimal odds) - 1]** tells you your expected yield if you took that bet repeatedly

btw, the %-edge that you reckon you have on this play at this odds is roughly (but not exactly...but close enough for my purposes here) equivalent to the full "kelly criterion" optimum bet-size..a bet with a bigger % edge=>a bigger bet...so when someone savvy like LTA puts on a 1.5x or 2x play you can bet his perceived edge is 50% or 100% larger than his usual play (eg. 4.5% or 6% perceived edge vs his usual 3%-ish edge for regular plays)...whether quantified explicitly like this or not, it is such considerations that constitute differing levels of "confidence"

Example time... you cap a game to win 60% of the time (ie. "your" implied break-even odds are thus 1/0.60=1.6667 or -150...the book odds are 1.7692 or -130 (ie. the book "figures" the probability to be 56.53%)...your perceived edge can easily be calculated as the ratio of the win% 60/56.53 less 1= a very attractive 6.1% (or alternatively, and even more handily...which is what I like about decimal odds format by 1.7692/1.6667).<you can="" also="" calculate="" this="" conveniently="" using="" decimal="" (but="" not="" american="" odds...thus,="" 1.7692="" 1.6667="" less="" 1="6.1%" again="">

side note: a full-kelly bettor would pound this at just about 6% bank (the optimal full-kelly percentage is under most circumstances very nearly the same thing as the edge that can be calculated as a simple ratio (of win%'s or of decimal odds as above)...a more conservative long-term more "crash-resistant" approach is a fraction of this edge...eg. a half-kelly bet would be 3%of bank, quarter-kelly 1.5% of the bank for this bet

nuff said for 6 measly sbr points (30c in "street value)...lol
</you>

Meant to quote this. And LTA too hehe.

[Redscot]

One of the things i'm starting to learn from you, LTA (and your core of sharp regulars) is the importance of "shopping for"...not just "putting on" bets. Tonight was a conceptual "breakthru"...i discovered the logic behind LTA's line-shopping religion.

About 30 minutes ago i went to Pinny to "put on" my two LTA plays and found the WAS/MIL o200at the typical (for pinny) price of 1.917 (which we ALL know is -109.05= -100/0.917...which is pinny's 0.4% discounted version of the -110 or 1.909 "standard" price). Your capping obviously suggests a probability of the game going over 200 points to be greater than the 1/1.909=52.38% implied by this standard price with enough edge to justify a standard-sized bet. So i locked it in.

But when i went to "put on" bet #2, the NOR/CHI u180.5, i found that this was, as you say, "juiced" up (in the American sense of larger and larger negative numbers)...in decimal it means that the usual 1.909 standard payout on a $1 bet has gone way down to 1.84 ( or juiced "up" to -119=-100/0.84 in the American sense.) Normally I'd just "bite" and say Fukit...but after finally sorting thru exactly how this probability and yield stuff are directly linked to odds when i put together yesterday's post...i stopped and finally saw, REALLY saw that if i make a habit of taking crappy prices I can have the identical wlp record as you and be considerably worse off units wise...cuz the implied win % i'd need on plays like this would have jumped considerably...from the 52.38% standard mentioned above to 54.35%....doesn't seem like much...but it means habitually accepting a crappy price like -119 instead of -110 hurts your %yield by a whopping -3.6% [(52.38/54.35)-1] or, even easier to calculate, as [(1.84/1.909)-1]...

-3.6% (out of the tens/hundreds of $k bet over an entire season WITH THE EXACT SAME W-L-P RECORD...is a lot of escarole to consider.

Anyhow, LTA...I have seen the light...If i'm a lazy knucklehead and take all your plays as written but at whatever price i can get (and at Pinny it's just too damn easy to buy as many points as you "need" to tail someoone!)...then, when i go to "put on" your play i'll be too lazy/impatient to "shop for" the value you always are clear about: that is, you always say/imply get the mentioned play at -110 or better...don't settle for a worse price such as -119 in this instance)...

anyhow..if i don't mature as a bettor and become a choosy line-shopper, then i'm, as my dad used to say "shitting in my own pocket". You and people who have habitually insisted on good prices and who have had the discipline to "stay out" when they couldn't get or missed a good deal on the desired play...over a season I may have experienced the exact same wlp sequence as you guys who've enjoyed a nice 3% ROI...and i have a crappy -0.6% result for all my troubles.

Now I FINALLY "get it"...thanks for patiently stressing that it's not just the plays you put on...it's the prices that your get them at...that article at pinny you linked us to a few days ago was very helpful on explaining why/how you could be happy with your plays, win OR lose as long as you continually beat the market close.

A very long winded way to say that i didn't "get" the NOR/CHI play yet...but I didn't "get sucked in" prematurely yet either...cuz the value you saw when you capped this game exists at u180.5@-110 or better but has evaporated (and possibly gone -eV) at worse prices. I also now understand that once you have successfully locked in a play at a good value...movements that would have been "bad" as a shopper...now become "good" in the sense that they help "confirm" your play....cuz they indicate the pressure/"steam" of others wanting what you already have...and taking worse and worse deals...just like you used to do before you found LTA-inspired "line-shopping" religion.

Hallelujah

Good shiznit Fitguy . I too have learned over the course of the last year or so the difference between being good at picking games, and being a successful sports investor, thanks in great part to LTA. Very important information that you shared.

[JM92]

Locked Pacers -5.0

Seems like its moving already. The books seem to love GS here I don't know why. They have a game against Atlanta tommorow while the Pacers dont play until the 3rd of March. There second best player and point guard is dealing with a bad ankle and if he's down 10-15 he'll probably sit throughout. Actually, they have a big road trip with like 4 games in 5 nights or something, I just can't see how they will compete trough the whole game unless they actually get a head start. Yes they have a better offense, statistically, but the Pacers can easily kill them inside with Hibbert, West and even Hansbrough on those offensive boards. If Indiana controlls the pace this should be rather easy actually.

Other lean I have is the Rockets. Also was leanin' towards the over @ Milwaukee but now its a lock already. GL everyone

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Season

84 - 67 = +17.95x

For those asking, here is our record heading into the second half of the season which starts today. Good luck!

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/28/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Bucks over (200) 1x (Locked)

This is one of the games I have been eyeing since I capped the card last night and jumped on 200 when my local opened up in the late afternoon. These teams last played very early in the season at the end of December on a total set at 186.5 and the game stayed under by a 3 points, despite a PACE of 94.5. The reason that game stayed so far under is because Washington shot under 35% and such futility will be hard for them to repeat, despite their inconsistency. In this game, the books are opening up almost 14 points more that the closer for the previous game and that big of adjustment might just be them tipping their hand. Both teams are to 12 in PACE and possession per game, while very poor on defense. This is especially true when you consider that Washington ranks top 5 in points in the paint, fasbreak points per game and fastbreak efficiency, while the Bucks are in the bottom 1/3 of those defensive categories. Despite this being a Scott Skiles team, they are not playing his typical brand of defense and I don't expect them to start on Tuesday. With Jennings facing up against Wall, I expect them to pus the ball up and down the court and turn this into a score-first type game. I have this game set at 203.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hornets/Bulls under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the over 180 at -110 and my local is posting 180.5. Even though I would really like to get the key number of 181 on this play, I am going to jump on this number now because I really don't see this one getting up that high. I think any number at 180 above is a solid play in this game. This play is the opposite of Play #1, whereas we expect a fast pace in that game, in this game we expect a much slower pace. This is the first game back for these two teams and they might be just a bit a rusty with so many reserves playing for New Orleans despite Jack being back in the lineup. Chicago's defense can be stifling at home and even though their offense is improved this year, I don't see them exploding tomorrow even if Rip plays. In the last game between these teams a few weeks ago, Chicago won 90-67. Generally, when a team scores under 70 like NO, I look for them to have a rebound performance in the next matchup. However, in this case, while I can see NO scoring more than 67, I do not see them scoring more than 85, especially when we can expect a PACE at 88 or less. I think this one will be close, but I think there's enough value here to take a shot. I have this game set at 177 giving us over 3 points of variance between my number and the books. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Here are the two plays so far for today. Despite my preference to tread lightly after the break, I have two more leans I am keeping an eye on. Might just add to our card for today, but im off to work for now. Stay tuned and good luck on everyone's plays today.

[ghislaine]

Thanks for always psting something early !!

[Catchn_Picks]

Thanks for the early posting LTA...BOL

[CHAZ]

Like the Hornets/Bulls UNDER also today! GL LTA I hope your 2nd half is even more profitable then your first

[Trivial]

Thanks for your hard work as always LTA. BOL to u all tonight.

[NOREGRETS]

Let's get it boys...

[fitguy67]

thanks Red...you are obviously one of the key "sharp" regulars around here I referred to...when I first started following along in the MLB thread and you guyz would go on and on for pages about waiting for this and that, I thought..."it's not brain surgery...if they want the goddam play why don't they just take it"...now i REALLY see in technicolor that sports investing is a long-term exercise in value-appreciation and shopping-savvy...wins and losses will come and go in waves and pull the units up and down...but when the dust settles, at the end of the season (when all the sick runs and bad beats balance out to a large degree)...you get to keep all the proceeds from your wise bargains but you must pay a tax on all the bad deals you bit at...I know I'm preaching to the choir (you, LTA, DonnieBrasco, hardball, celtic, etc.etc.)...but i finally figured out the SUBTLE BUT CRUCIAL logic in the song you guyz are always singin'

[pokerwhiz90]

hey lta, you should also look at boston u184, the cavs have beat them once already, both low scoring close games - now that the celtics had some time to rest, you know they're going to play better defense

[NaccAttack]

I like the picks I'm tailing!

[NOREGRETS]

Wizards / Bucks total to 201. Bulls / Hornets total steady at 180.

[JM92]

Seems like C.J Watson is playing. Dont like that at all, to be honest. Would rather have him sit on the bench the whole game chewing gum instead of running like a freak and jacking up threes.