LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #1086
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    Nba 5/23/11

    Mavs/Thunder over (195) (-120) 1x (locked) WINNER

    80% of public on over in some spots. This is one ugly over play. It makes my teeth hurt betting with the public like this. Hence, why I am only on this for one unit. I don't know though, this one is more of a gut play. I have this capped at 194-195, so I expect it to be in the 190 range. With a few extra foul calls from Crawford or a bit of quicker pace to start, I just think this one squeaks over.

    I also lean okc, but -4 is a bit much. I think Durant plays much better and okc will try to run as much as possible. This is only a one unit play so I bought the hook as I don't think the total will come down any further and I don't have time to watch the line. As mentioned, I have this capped right at the 194-195 range, but lean over because I don't think okc will get off to such a slow start and this one may sneak over. In the playoffs, I don't want to lose by the hook so I will pay a little extra juice here and there because the lines are so sharp.

    The refs favor the over, except for Mauer. The final score could be right at the number or below based on the mavs renewed defensive effort so only a small play tonight. Good luck.
    NBA 5/23/11

    1 - 0 +1x

    In this thread:

    18 - 14 = +27.3x

    A nice win with the public here as the over cashes. OKC got off to a torrid start, which led the way for a ton of scoring in the 1h just like we thought.

    We have a 5x play on the under tomorrow. That is more our style...we've seen the early money come in on the under so that's good. More on this one to come.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #1087
      MLB

      5/22/11

      3 - 3 = -1.1x

      5/23/11

      3 - 2 = +1

      In this thread:

      54 - 47 = +10.4x

      Treading water last couple days in MLB, but we continue to grind out profit on a weekly basis. I expect a hot streak soon. Let's start it tomorrow!
      Comment
      • RayzHELL
        SBR MVP
        • 08-18-09
        • 2164

        #1088
        Originally posted by RayzHELL
        Maybe my only good bet tonight was this second half UNDER!
        OT killed my Second Half UNDER!!!

        Next time I should just take the $1,200.00 out in the yard and burn it!
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #1089
          Originally posted by RayzHELL
          OT killed my Second Half UNDER!!!

          I saw that...sorry dude. Take the under tomorrow 179 or higher and get some of it back.
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #1090
            I think it's time to start looking at futures involving Dallas to win it all. I am thinking about taking the field against Miami, which looks to provide decent odds.

            I also need to dust of my list of hedge possibilities with respect to my future wager on Chicago to win the East.
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #1091
              I'm off to bed...time to think a bit about tomorrow's game. I think we'll see a classic defensive battle -- first to 90 wins.

              Some quick thoughts:

              I expect the Bulls to return to their defensive roots. They have been exposed on offense and the blueprint to beat them was laid out by the Pacers. The Heat are following that blueprint by doubling Rose off the pick and forcing Rose's teammates to make shots. Unfortunately, they just have not done so.

              Even though Boozer had 26 pts last game, he should have had 36 pts if you count some of his missed free throws and 5 straight missed shots in the first quarter. Boozer blew at least four 3pt plays after getting fouled and missing the free throws. It doesn't seem he can do any better than what he provided last game and that was the weakest 26 pt, 17 rebound game I have ever seen.

              However, Boozer's real sin was the 8 missed defensive assignments. Thibs will not tolerate that sort of play and I expect Boozer to either play much better on defense or to end up sitting in the fourth quarter like he did after the 2nd Hawks win last series. Expect Thibs and the Bulls to return to their roots on defense tomorrow and make it their hallmark to winning the game. I would not be surprised to see more Asik late and could even see Thomas make his way off the bench.

              It's pretty clear to everyone the Bulls cannot win on offense. Korver is one of the keys to the Bulls' offense. They need him on the floor in order to open up the lanes for Rose. However, if Korver is not hitting his shots, he becomes a huge defensive liability. The thought of Korver having to guard Lebron should make all Bulls backers sick. Consequently, I think we see less of Korver tomorrow unless he hits some early shots. If Korver doesn't play, then we see more of Brewer who at least can cover defensively, but is not nearly the shooter Korver is/was.

              I think the potential for less playing time for Boozer and Korver, will lead to more defense and defensive intensity. Even if both Boozer and Korver play their normal minutes, I think we see the under hit. I suspect the Bulls will be held to about 43% shooting tomorrow at best, however, I don't think we see the Heat shoot better than 45% tomorrow.

              Game 3 hit 181 total points with the Heat shooting 50% and the Bulls shooting 41%. I expect both teams to be under 45% tomorrow and that will be more than enough to keep this game under.

              Noah needs to play more and play better. I think he will be one of the keys to the Bulls' defensive intensity, energy and effort tomorrow. I expect him to come out like a beast after the whole slur issue. However, he needs to stay out of foul trouble to be effective.

              I have this game capped at 176-177 range. This is an absolute must-win for the Bulls. They realize the only way to win this game is defense. The Bulls have not last 3 games in a row all year. I just think the Bulls give maximum effort tomorrow and that effort will display itself on the defensive end. They are used to winning close games with defense and that is what I expect for tomorrow.
              Comment
              • twelvejewelz
                SBR MVP
                • 01-29-11
                • 2388

                #1092
                I just hope the refs dont get on their knees and blow the heat tomorrow. GL
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #1093
                  Originally posted by twelvejewelz
                  I just hope the refs dont get on their knees and blow the heat tomorrow. GL
                  I actually expect the refs to be in the Bulls favor tomorrow. If they favor the Heat again, I may have to write a letter to the league


                  I will limit my play to the under for the most part, but I may also play a small Bulls ML/under parlay. GL...
                  Comment
                  • savelemony
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 03-30-11
                    • 41

                    #1094
                    Around how many units do you plan on betting?

                    Good luck!
                    Comment
                    • flush99
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 03-20-11
                      • 80

                      #1095
                      Over was locked. Congrats
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #1096
                        Stay alert for the opener in Wedesday's Game 5 in Thunder/Mavs. If you see a total 200 or more, you may want to really think hard about the under.
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #1097
                          Miami will not shoot 50% today. Since the start of the regular season, the Bulls have allowed a team to shoot 50% against it only 11 times and never back to back. Although they had never lost back to back either until last game, I think they keep this streak going. I'm sure Thibs has hammered the following point home -- the Bulls are 2 - 9 when they allow their opponent to shoot 50%. Consequently, this reinforces my point that, both Thibs and the players know that the only way they win tonight is play great D. I expect both teams to be held to 45% shooting from the field or less.

                          If the refs favor the under, I will probably add 2-3 more units for around a 7x-8x play on the under. I just locked in a small ML parlay with the Bulls and under (179) for .5x (not for record in thread). The payout is more than 2x and, it allows me to recoup some of my loss on the Bulls in the last game if it cashes. If not, it's only half a unit and we should still have a winner on the under. If the Bulls lose this game, we will begin hedging on our 5x Bulls futures wagers. I have to head into work early, so I probably won't have a more organized writeup. However, I've tried to give you my thoughts on this game in a couple different posts. Good luck today.
                          Comment
                          • migz
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-11-10
                            • 1160

                            #1098
                            Refs are out -- J. Crawford E. Malloy B. Salvatore
                            Comment
                            • FishFace5
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-15-09
                              • 1768

                              #1099
                              best I can get right now is 178.5.
                              Should I jump on it now or you think I get a better number by game time?
                              Comment
                              • aussieH
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-04-11
                                • 1188

                                #1100
                                I can currently get under 179.5 at 1.95. Seems like a trap but I took it. Best line and best price which is unusual for this book
                                Comment
                                • NBA_Brosuf
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 02-14-11
                                  • 2489

                                  #1101
                                  great move on capping under but taking the public over. Instinct is sharp for ya LTA.

                                  Help us get the next winner.
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #1102
                                    Nba 5/25/11

                                    Thunder/Mavs under (199) 5x (locked)

                                    I missed the opener of 199.5, but its already down to 198.5 so I feel like I still got good value at 199. You would think the books would have at least opened at 200 based on the result of yesterday's game and the opening number of 202 for game three. I believe this opener shows the books are expecting early sharp money on the under and are protecting themselves by not opening at a larger number. Looks like a smart move as the under was hit hard at opening. Writeup to come. Good luck.
                                    Comment
                                    • FishFace5
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-15-09
                                      • 1768

                                      #1103
                                      Any thought on line movement for tonight big man?
                                      178.5 is the best I could grab right now, would you recommend jumping on that or waiting?
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #1104
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        NBA 5/24/11

                                        Bulls/Heat Under (179) 5x (Locked)

                                        I like a classic defensive battle to ensue tomorrow and was lucky to get this number from one of my locals. All the major books still at 178 or 178.5. Nevertheless, I expect the number to go up eventually everywhere soon. Good luck. Writeup to come later.
                                        Adding 3x for total of 8x on Bulls/Heat under (179) (locked)

                                        We have Crawford, Malloy and Salvatore. This could be good or bad. They all have under leans in some respects and over leans in other respects. However, all three are vets and I think they will let the little stuff fly and let them play ball. I like this play for 8x, with the only reservation being that Miami generally plays to the over ay home. Regardless, I think we see defense dominate with a bit slower pace than game 3 and a few less shots drop for the Heat. Good luck.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #1105
                                          Originally posted by FishFace5
                                          Any thought on line movement for tonight big man?
                                          178.5 is the best I could grab right now, would you recommend jumping on that or waiting?
                                          Depends if you have time to watch the line. I think it hits 179 at some point but then drops back down. I would try to get 179 if you can. Bol....
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #1106
                                            179 is now widely available for those interested in the under...
                                            Comment
                                            • FishFace5
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-15-09
                                              • 1768

                                              #1107
                                              I'm on it for a unit.
                                              Might add more later if the number continues to improve or probably just keep it small tonight.
                                              Thanks for the update and keep doing what you do.
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #1108
                                                Mlb 5/24/11

                                                Reds ml (+100) 1x (locked)

                                                No time for comments today...only picks today after this one. Reds need a win and Cueto is there only pitcher throwing decent against the phillies fifth starter who haas been doing well but should give up some runs today. Gl...
                                                Comment
                                                • GGALLERT
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 03-02-11
                                                  • 110

                                                  #1109
                                                  Following the under...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #1110
                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                    Mlb 5/24/11

                                                    Reds ml (+100) 1x (locked)

                                                    No time for comments today...only picks today after this one. Reds need a win and Cueto is there only pitcher throwing decent against the phillies fifth starter who haas been doing well but should give up some runs today. Gl...
                                                    Padres ml (+112) 1x
                                                    Nationals/Brewers under (8.5) 1x
                                                    Marlins/Giants over (6.5)( -115) 1x
                                                    Royals/Orioles over (8.5) 1x
                                                    (All Locked)


                                                    Good luck...maybe a few more as well...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Krazymojo
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-01-10
                                                      • 444

                                                      #1111
                                                      damn mavs o/u already at 198.....
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Krazymojo
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 12-01-10
                                                        • 444

                                                        #1112
                                                        just the .5x for the ml n under parlay right>?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Love The Action
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-08-10
                                                          • 10952

                                                          #1113
                                                          Mlb 5/24/11

                                                          Pirates ml (+ 100) 1x
                                                          RedSox/Indians over (7.5) .5x
                                                          Locked


                                                          Gl....
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #1114
                                                            Originally posted by Krazymojo
                                                            just the .5x for the ml n under parlay right>?
                                                            Yep, just a half unit for me....but it pays a little more than two units. Bol....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Krazymojo
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 12-01-10
                                                              • 444

                                                              #1115
                                                              got it at same bodog up to 180 thinking bout adding the 2 more to make it 10
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #1116
                                                                Not pleased with the line movement but not scared either...there is a ton of public money coming in on the over.

                                                                As long as it doesn't get up to 181, I am content. However, unless the line drops, this would be one of the first plays in this thread not to beat the closer...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nmodi
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 03-28-11
                                                                  • 278

                                                                  #1117
                                                                  lking gud for under
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #1118
                                                                    Wow....8 points in first minute of 2nd quarter. I hope NoCoin's theory of low scoring 1q, over for game, doesn't come through.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #1119
                                                                      17 damn points in first 2:30 of 2nd quarter now...unreal...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • nmodi
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 03-28-11
                                                                        • 278

                                                                        #1120
                                                                        r u thinking abt hedge?
                                                                        Comment
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