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The refs will not call anything when Rose drives...unreal.Comment -
If we can get 80 or more, we'll have a chance.
However, Boozer and the rest of the Bulls need to start hitting ever single one of their free throws.Comment -
Needs some fouls to be called in this last minute...Comment -
Heat with almost double the amount of free throw attempts. I counted at least three drives by Rose that they should have called a foul and at least two non-calls where Boozer had the ball. That would 10 more field goal attempts and the difference in the game and 1h total. Make of that what you will, but the numbers at least show a bias towards Miami. I don't believe in fixes or whatever, but it is what it is. At least be consistent and call the same things both ways...Comment -
I sure hope things open up in the 2nd half...We need some baskets here
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The Bulls did not get out the fast start that I thought they would. In addition, they have not shot well. However, they have contained Lebron and Wade and let Bosh get his 16 just like I thought.
No one from the Bulls has played well, and yet they are only down three. If the Bulls can keep it close, they should pull it out in the end but will need some big shots from players not named Rose.
Not hedging at all. Going to ride it out. Good luck.Comment -
Need to average about 48 points per quarter now to cash the game over.Comment -
The officiating is a disgrace. The nba should be embarrassed.Comment -
Hopefully the over hits to cover some of the loss. Unfortunately, this one is over. Sucks...Comment -
Wow gonna be close on the over....Comment -
Games gonna go over I have chi +9.5 in a three team teaser I just hope they cover that atleast -__- I think we forgot one thing about the bulls that they are only mediocre on the road =\Comment -
C'mon Bulls 3 pointers, Let's cover the spread !Comment -
Sorry guys. Bad call. I overestimated the ability of the Bulls as a team to make more shots. However, I'm very frustrated with the officiating. That was a clear bias.
Anyway, can't dwell on it or it will kill ya. I'm hitting the hay with the wife. Onto the next game tomorrow.Comment -
Over
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At least we got the over!Comment -
cannot handicap referees behavior.....randomess...and noiseComment -
What's your lean for tonight's game?Comment -
Did PTA give up on the over?Comment -
Luckily Over cashed! GLComment -
NBA 5/22/11NBA 5/22/11
Bulls (+5) 6.5x (Locked) LOSS
Bulls ML (+180) 1.5x (Locked) LOSS
Bulls/Heat over (179) 3x (Locked) WINNER
Bulls/Heat 1h over (90.5) 3x (Locked) LOSS
Although I was really looking forward to yesterday's game, this is the game I have been waiting for...Game 3, Bulls v. Heat in Miami...does it get any better? I firmly believe that the winner of this game will most likely be the team that wins the series. This is not certain, but make no mistake about it that this game is pivotal for both teams and gives the winning team a huge advantage. As you know, I already have 5x on the Bulls to come out of the East, so it should be no surprise that I think the Bulls will win game 3 tonight.
This game will come down to (1) the Bulls' defensive and offensive adjustments orchestrated by coach Thibs, (2) the expectation that Rose bounces back from a poor game to have a great game tonight, (3) the Bullls' dominance and depth in the front court in grabbing the off/def rebounds which lead to second-chance points, (4) increased offensive production from the Bulls bench and role players, (5) a quick start by the Bulls nullifying the home crowd, (6) the Bulls' urgency to win and (7) a defensive game plan that will limit Wade and Lebron but give Bosh easy looks.
The Bulls rarely lose back-to-back games and have not done so since February. This can be directly attributable to the adjustments and game planning by Thibs. He is the coach of the year because he is one of the best x's and o's game planners in the league. He is great at adjusting his schemes on a game-by-game basis and is not only reactive as to what the opposing team does, but is proactive in anticipating those moves and planning ahead. After game 1 of the Hawks/Bulls series, I made my biggest play of the year, a 15x winner on the Bulls/Hawks under, because I knew the Bulls would bounce back from the game 1 loss with a great game plan orchestrated by Thibs to limit the Hawk's offensively. The Bulls did in fact bounce back with a win in that spot, and I think the Bulls bounce back in this spot as well after having played very poorly in game 2 earlier this week.
If you look at what I stated in the writeup from game 2 of Hawks/Bulls (see post #137), the analysis also applies in this situation as it relates to the Bulls ability to rebound with a win after a bad loss. However, the evidence for this assertion can be found in the Bulls' playoff results so far. Specifically, after the Bulls 3 playoff losses to date, they have responded with wins by 27, 13 and 12 respective points. Now, I understand that everyone will say those wins were not against the Heat on the road. However, we don't need a double digit win, we just need a win and I think the Bulls make it happen tonight by ramping up their intensity, sense of urgency and overall energy on both offense and defense. I look at Thibs to use a scheme that requires immediate help defense on Wade and Lebron, while leaving Bosh to do his thing. At the end of the day, the Bulls will be happy if Bosh gets 30, but they limit Lebron and Wade to 24 or less. The Bulls' ability to bounce back can be directly attributed to the Bulls coaching adjustments, and those adjustments are evidenced in their ability to avoid back-to back losses. I think that trend continues tonight and Thibs' coaching adjustments will be complemented by the likelihood that Rose has a great game.
Don't sleep on Rose in this game. He is the antithesis of most NBA players. He works harder than most and has that special quality that you only see in the best of the best. He has the killer instinct and competitiveness that is rare today, but was previously displayed by such hall of fame players as MJ, Bird, Thomas, etc. When Rose asked "why not me" with respect to the MVP winner, everyone laughed and did not take him seriously. However, Rose was serious and put in the hard work to make that dream a reality. Rose worked day in and day out last summer on getting the outside shot that would be such a great complement to his athletic game. Rose's hard work paid off and he worked himself into a good outside shooter. He still has work to do with respect to his defense, but that will come. If you are thinking of making a prop play tonight, you may want to take a look at what the books offer for Rose. I expect all Rose's intangibles to shine tonight and for Rose to have a big game and lead his teammates to the victory. Rose always remembers bad games and makes a point to avenge such poor performances. He has done this all year and I expect a great performance after he shot 7-23 from the field and 0-3 from three point range in game 2. I fully expect Rose to bounce back with an efficient 25 pts+ and playmaker type game where he makes everyone around him better. However, Rose cannot do it alone and his teammates' contribution will be critical.
In order for the Bulls to win, we will need offensive and defensive production out of Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver/Bogans/Brewer, Gibson and the rest of the bench. Rose cannot do it by himself today and his teammates understand that fact. The big talk out of Chicago after game 2 was the lack of offensive help for Rose. I have heard directly from Thibs' and players' mouths that they know Rose can't do it alone and it's up to everyone else to step up tonight on offense. Korver has played horribly, with three shots going in and out in game 2. I think, as a veteran, he understands what is on the line tonight and steps up to finally hit some big shots. Deng's defense on Lebron has been stellar, but he needs to have the same offensive production as he did in game 1. Boozer needs to get 15 points and then sit for most of the fourth quarter. Gibson, Asik and Noah are pivotal to this game. I believe the Bulls' dominance in the paint, led primarily by those three and Boozer, must shine tonight for the Bulls to win. The Bulls ability to control the boards and get the second-chance points will be ultra-important tonight. This is where the Bulls have the advantage in both talent and intangibles and must exploit this weakness in the Heat in order to win. The Bulls did this in game 1 and will need to return that level of production from their front-line players in order to win tonight. I think we see an entire team effort tonight from the Bulls from the very beginning to the very end. The Bulls' dominance in the paint must make the difference tonight and I think it will. Because I think we will see offensive production from all of the Bulls players tonight, I am also going to roll with the over.
I think the over is the play tonight because both teams should hit 90+. I don't think either will get to 97, but I expect a final score between 180 and 185. The Bulls shot 34% from the field, 15% from three point range and only 61% from the free throw line and were limited to 10 points in the fourth quarter. Those are god-awful numbers and I doubt they shoot so poorly again. However, despite those horrible numbers, they still hit 75 points. All we need is 5-7 more shots to go down with a few more free throws and the Bulls should easily hit 90 points. The Bulls were 5-2 in favor of the over this year when playing on 3 days of rest and 4-0 in favor of the over in their last four games in this situation. They also averaged 198 points in those games. Having watched many Bulls games this year, I know they like to play fast after having multiple days of rest. In addition, the Heat generally play a faster pace at home than on the road, and I expect both teams to come out gunning. Perhaps a 1q and/or 1h over play is warranted here as well. The Bulls will want to get out to a fast offensive start in order to quiet the crowd. Do not be surprised if the Bulls are winning at the end of the 1q tonight or if the 1q goes over. The Bulls' offensive production is pivotal to their overall success in this game and has been mentioned by many Bulls players in interviews I have read/heard.
Unfortunately, the refs generally favor the under with Javie, Garretson and Callahan as the main zebras tonight. However, Zarba is the reserve and if he actually ends up on the court, he will have his whistle in his mouth the whole game. I hate having Zarba ref games where I am on the under, but equally love him when on the over. Let's just hope he gets on the court. Even if he doesn't, however, the other refs (other than Javie) do not have huge leans in favor of the under, so while I don't expect a ton of help from the refs tonight, we should still see around 50 free throw attempts overall. The Bulls, however, must hit 75% or thereabouts and increase their hit rate from the woeful 61% they shot from the free throw line in game 2. I expect that to happen and this game to go over 179 points.
The side for this game opened up at a whopping +6 for the Bulls. Even though there has been equal action with respect to total number of bets, the big money has been on the Bulls driving that price down to +4.5 at all major books as I type. One of my locals even has +4. The total opened at 179 and dropped to 178.5 before jumping back to 179. I expect it to stay in that 178-179.5 range for most of the day. I hate that the over is such a public play in that 70% are on the over, however, the public does win almost 50% of the time so there is no reason one of those winners can't be tonight. Remember, we bet with value and I believe this game hits 182, which is where I have my line for tonight's game and is why I believe I am getting value on the over at 179. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over and rooting for points.
I know this game will be hard for the Bulls. The Heat present a big challenge, especially at home. I think the Bulls allow Bosh to get his points, but play extremely physical with Lebron and Wade. The Bulls will try to physically wear Lebron and Wade down throughout the game so that they do not have enough left in the tank at the end of the game to pull out the win. Remember, Wade and Lebron need to play as much as possible for the Heat to win. The Bulls know this and will throw everything they have at those two players. If either of those players gets in foul trouble, well at least they won't be on the court and the Bulls can take advantage of the Heat's lack of depth. On the other hand, if Wade and Lebron end up playing major minutes in the first three quarters, they will be tired for the fourth quarter. Either way, in my eyes, this situation adds up as a win for the Bulls tonight.
The Bulls will play with a sense of urgency that I do not think the Heat will have. I believe the Heat feel they are back in the driver's seat of this series after winning game 2 and taking home court advantage. I think that will work to the Bulls benefit as that may leave just a tiny bit of room for the Bulls to get off to quick start. Thibs will make it a point to drive home the importance of this game 3. The time for the Bulls to win in Miami is now. There is no waiting until game 4 and I believe the Bulls will play with that necessary sense of urgency and extra energy to pull out the win. I'm rolling with the zig-zag here and feel that the Bulls find a way to pull out the win in Miami tonight.
I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. Good luck tonight! Let's get the sweep 2 nights in a row!
1 - 3 = -8.6x
In this thread:
17 - 14 = +26.3x
We took is squarely on the chin last night as the Bulls were once again exposed for not having the help for Rose that they really need against top flight teams. Unfortunately, we squandered a great chance to really put a hurting on the books on back to back nights. I should have stuck with what I know best -- totals -- and not played the side so big. That was just a bad call on my part. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I think I overplayed the side at 6x for a such a close matchup. I should have kept the total and side at equal units or played the total bigger like I did on Saturday. My analysis for the game total was spot-on, as we predict a 182 final score and it ends up 181, with the Bulls increasing their shooting percentage as we thought. Lesson learned.
Although, not as an excuse but more as a concern for the league, I would still say the officiating was disgraceful as their was a clear bias in favor of the Heat. This is evidenced in the disparity between offensive foul calls and clear non-calls on multiple Bulls' possessions. For a league trying to squash any conspiracy rumblings, that officiating performance only served to fuel them -- at least in my mind.
But, at the end of the day, those types of excuses are for losers. We lost, Heat won, so we send our congrats over to the Heat backers -- good call. Moving forward, we are still comfortably up over 26 units in this thread and over 50 units in the playoffs, so we can't complain too much. Onto Dallas/OKC for Monday night.Comment -
any picks in the next hour before I go to work?Comment -
Doubtful unless lines start moving...Comment -
alright Ill b back around 5 central lol Have a nice day everyone!Comment -
If I can get 179 for tomorrow, I will be on the under. Neither of my locals have opened that game.Comment -
Nba 5/23/11
Mavs/Thunder over (195) (-120) 1x (locked)
I also lean okc, but -4 is a bit much. I think Durant plays much better and okc will try to run as much as possible.
This is only a one unit play so I bought the hook as I don't think the total will come down any further and I don't have time to watch the line. I have this capped right at the 194-195 range, but lean over because I don't think okc will get off to such a slow start and this one may sneak over. In the playoffs, I don't want to lose by the hook so I will pay a little extra juice here and there because the lines are so sharp.
The refs favor the over, except for Mauer. The final score could be right at the number or below based on the mavs renewed defensive effort so only a small play tonight. Good luck.Comment -
can you also give the names of them 3 zebras for each write up too please?
I'm really having the hardest time finding the latest scoop on who are them refs on a given game.
I need to bookmark such link. PM me if needed necessary LTA.Comment
