LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

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  • mick13x
    SBR Rookie
    • 04-29-11
    • 22

    #946
    lets get these. Im taking bulls and the over also. I need these both. GL to all.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #947
      Originally posted by suicidekings
      That's where the value of the -1 comes in as opposed to the ML or the -1.5, especially with the home team. In this case, you'd be paying 50% less juice and while the push is now possible, your odds of losing the wager outright do not increase.
      I actually misread your previous post and thought you asked about -1.5 RL. Unfortunately, neither of my locals offer the -1 RL. Too bad, as I get what your saying and agree. Man I wish I could get access to Pinny...
      Comment
      • Krazymojo
        SBR Sharp
        • 12-01-10
        • 444

        #948
        Alright Im off to my buddys house for the Bulls game...BOL Lets Cash Big tonight!
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #949
          Originally posted by Krazymojo
          Alright Im off to my buddys house for the Bulls game...BOL Lets Cash Big tonight!

          Good luck tonight...
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #950
            Originally posted by Love The Action
            I actually misread your previous post and thought you asked about -1.5 RL. Unfortunately, neither of my locals offer the -1 RL. Too bad, as I get what your saying and agree. Man I wish I could get access to Pinny...
            If you can't do the -1 directly, you can create the -1 by combining the ML and -1.5. If you had a team that was ML(-160), RL-1.5(+140)

            ML: $66.67 to win $41.67
            RL-1.5: $41.67 to win $58.33
            Net: $108.33 to win $100

            You push on the 1 run win and win on 2+. Composite odds of -108 instead of -160. These are roughly the numbers from the MIN-ARI game today.
            Comment
            • JR007
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-21-10
              • 5279

              #951
              Bulls 10-21 shooting threes 1st game...3-20 the 2nd game

              Miami shot 47 % two games in a row....

              In a slow series.....shooting percentage may be key......rather than overall volume

              "from another source"
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #952
                Originally posted by suicidekings
                If you can't do the -1 directly, you can create the -1 by combining the ML and -1.5. If you had a team that was ML(-160), RL-1.5(+140)

                ML: $66.67 to win $41.67
                RL-1.5: $41.67 to win $58.33
                Net: $108.33 to win $100

                You push on the 1 run win and win on 2+. Composite odds of -108 instead of -160. These are roughly the numbers from the MIN-ARI game today.
                Thanks...an underused concept and clear description on how put it in practice. This is the sort of stuff we need more of around this forum.
                Comment
                • twelvejewelz
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-29-11
                  • 2388

                  #953
                  Last game was the bulls worst offensive game of the season and Lebron had his best shooting performance in the playoffs. Rose went 0 for 3 from the 3 point line. The bulls were obviously just totally off that game and they still only lost by 10, which isnt that bad at all. The Bulls shot just 34 percent from the field, made just 3 of 20 attempts from 3-point range and missed 10 free throws, basically the free throws alone would have brought them to OT. Cant pass up the bulls there is to much value.
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #954
                    Some books up to 180 on the total. If this game closes at that number, we will have beat another closer. We have beaten the closer almost every one of the 28 NBA plays in this thread. You can't do much better than that and the value created by beating those closing numbers should turn to profit over the long term. That's why we rarely wait until the closing number to make our NBA plays in the playoffs. It is so important to get that .5-1 point of value on a consistent basis.
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #955
                      Originally posted by twelvejewelz
                      Last game was the bulls worst offensive game of the season and Lebron had his best shooting performance in the playoffs. Rose went 0 for 3 from the 3 point line. The bulls were obviously just totally off that game and they still only lost by 10, which isnt that bad at all. The Bulls shot just 34 percent from the field, made just 3 of 20 attempts from 3-point range and missed 10 free throws, basically the free throws alone would have brought them to OT. Cant pass up the bulls there is to much value.
                      Great analysis. Thanks.
                      Comment
                      • twelvejewelz
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-29-11
                        • 2388

                        #956
                        I think im going to take the bulls +5 x2 and the ml x1 then if they lose the game im going to chase and double up on both bets the next game, i really think they are going to take one in miami and i cant pass up on it. If they win then ill lay off the next game. I know its not recommended to chase usually but it has worked well for me with NHL playoffs and i cant pass it up, worst thing that can happen is i lose a few units, no big deal but they payout would be nice. GL tonight

                        a few more stats for you i found around the internet :
                        The Over is 5-0 in Miami’s last five games as a favorite.
                        The Heat is 1-4 ATS in its last five games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.
                        The Bulls haven’t lost consecutive games since Feb. 5-7
                        Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
                        Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
                        Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

                        +81 = The combined plus/minus of Miami's starting five in Game 2. The Bulls' starting unit finished -45.

                        MVP Derrick Rose shot 7 of 23 from the floor in the Game 2 loss, including 10 misses in the paint. Coach Tom Thibodeau isn’t panicking. “I don’t want [Rose] to change anything that he’s doing,” Thibodeau said. “That’s how we got here. And we want to continue to do all the things that we did well through the course of the season. We’re not going to change who we are now.”
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #957
                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                          NBA 5/22/11

                          Bulls (+5) 6.5x (Locked)
                          Bulls ML (+180) 1.5x (Locked)
                          Bulls/Heat over (179) 2.5x (Locked)

                          Bulls/Heat 1h over (90.5) 2x (Locked)
                          Adding 1x to Bulls/Heat over (90.5) for a total of 3x (Locked)

                          Good luck. I really like the 1h over as mentioned in my writeup and recommended by SK. This avoids against a slow and lower scoring 2h as we typically see in playoff games and as we have seen between these two teams all year. I may actually add to the 1h over again. We'll see. Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #958
                            Unreal...Oakland up 4-2 and they give up 2 runs in the bottom of eighth to SF. Now they are in extra innings...not a good turn of events. The home team and especially SF with this series history has the advantage. Let's hope Oakland figures out a way to get it done
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #959
                              Late money on heat pushing line back up...
                              Comment
                              • ikon808
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-07-10
                                • 510

                                #960
                                what does this mean ....
                                Comment
                                • SimonSayz
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-17-09
                                  • 859

                                  #961
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Late money on heat pushing line back up...
                                  Public is on the Heat...I am not reading anything into this... Go Bulls.
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #962
                                    Originally posted by SimonSayz
                                    Public is on the Heat...I am not reading anything into this... Go Bulls.
                                    There's too much money on this game to really read anything into the line moves, except perhaps for the early move from +6 to +5. With this much money on the game, you are going to see the line move up and down .5 all day long. Unless it moves 1-1.5 points, you can't really get a read on it to call it significant one way or the other. I would agree though that most of the money on the Heat came in today, and for the most part, that was a lot of public money. However, there are a lot of sharps on both sides of this game.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #963
                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                      Adding 1x to Bulls/Heat over (90.5) for a total of 3x (Locked)

                                      Good luck. I really like the 1h over as mentioned in my writeup and recommended by SK. This avoids against a slow and lower scoring 2h as we typically see in playoff games and as we have seen between these two teams all year. I may actually add to the 1h over again. We'll see. Good luck.
                                      1H at 90 now.
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #964
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        NBA 5/22/11

                                        Bulls (+5) 6.5x (Locked)
                                        Bulls ML (+180) 1.5x (Locked)
                                        Bulls/Heat over (179) 2.5x (Locked)

                                        Bulls/Heat 1h over (90.5) 3x (Locked)
                                        Adding .5x Bulls/Heat over (179) for a total of 3x (Locked)

                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #965
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          Adding .5x Bulls/Heat over (179) for a total of 3x (Locked)

                                          Like it in theory, but not crazy about both early and late money being on the under at Pinny.
                                          Comment
                                          • wilfor1
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-06-10
                                            • 129

                                            #966
                                            It's a hot and humid night in miami. I'm takin under as fatigue will be a factor.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #967
                                              Refs not looking to help bulls at all...
                                              Comment
                                              • alamo
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-21-09
                                                • 7131

                                                #968
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                Refs not looking to help bulls at all...
                                                Dude - their not supposed to. Their there to call a fair game and not be bias
                                                Comment
                                                • twelvejewelz
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-29-11
                                                  • 2388

                                                  #969
                                                  Originally posted by alamo
                                                  Dude - their not supposed to. Their there to call a fair game and not be bias
                                                  Do they ever call a fair game?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JR007
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-21-10
                                                    • 5279

                                                    #970
                                                    I saw the play being the heat......see if I read it wrong
                                                    Comment
                                                    • alamo
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-21-09
                                                      • 7131

                                                      #971
                                                      Originally posted by twelvejewelz
                                                      Do they ever call a fair game?
                                                      Yes
                                                      Comment
                                                      • wilfor1
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 09-06-10
                                                        • 129

                                                        #972
                                                        I'm loving the defense that's being played
                                                        Comment
                                                        • wilfor1
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 09-06-10
                                                          • 129

                                                          #973
                                                          The under is getting pounded big here guys. It's now down to 171.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • twelvejewelz
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-29-11
                                                            • 2388

                                                            #974
                                                            Originally posted by wilfor1
                                                            The under is getting pounded big here guys. It's now down to 171.5
                                                            The live totals and spreads dont go by money pounding them they go by the pace of the game, its all computerized for the most part.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • wilfor1
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 09-06-10
                                                              • 129

                                                              #975
                                                              The two teams defenses can take a
                                                              Comment
                                                              • No coincidences
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-18-10
                                                                • 76300

                                                                #976
                                                                Originally posted by wilfor1
                                                                The two teams defenses can take a
                                                                You seem to really enjoy going into someone's thread and pumping up the opposite side, eh?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • wilfor1
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 09-06-10
                                                                  • 129

                                                                  #977
                                                                  Dude I just said that both teams playin great D. Peace bro
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #978
                                                                    Originally posted by wilfor1
                                                                    Dude I just said that both teams playin great D. Peace bro
                                                                    Why are you doing so in a thread where the poster is on the 1H over and the game over?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                      • 9962

                                                                      #979
                                                                      Just missed the Over 165 live line... 3 attempts only to see the price move up to O165(-125) and then go offline. Next time back it was back up to 170.5...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • wilfor1
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 09-06-10
                                                                        • 129

                                                                        #980
                                                                        Dude your looking for an arguement. I ain't goin to have one. Peace out bro
                                                                        Comment
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