Nba_Brosuf mid season to finals cherry picking

[JR007]

just a thought...i always look for...an underdog..outright.win....i used to bet dog's with the thought ...of a cover....and lost a lot
not telling you how to wager dude.....i would look for small dogs to win outright

[kingjamesyap]

i dont know cavs are b2b away and won yesterday

[NBA_Brosuf]

cavs +14 1U

Why? Well first time I'm backing up them cavs and taking the backdoor cover. I think. LOL

Am here at the Grand Sierra Reno Casino and people here are talking about them cavs. Maybe they know something we don't know? Waiting for the bookie here to open up their lines so I can pound some while I'm here.

I think I lost this game here.

Rape system: 36-41 +10U

Ok, the weekend trip was a disaster. It snowed and rained in Reno so that means it snowed heavily in the Sierra mountains. I had snow chains with me but have no experiences driving in snow or putting them chains on. My reservation was due today but I chickened out and left yesterday. I got lucky because it snowed less and the driving condition was decent enough that many drivers did not put on their chains. I did and it took me half an hour just to put them chains on and driving at speed less than 30 mph while other people speeding me by. I'm glad I got out because Today is heavily snow and tomorrow will be a winter advisory.

Overall, march madness with their upset games were horrible pickings for me. Nothing went though and losing by half a point isn't cool either. What I do know is that those who bet on top 1st or 2nd ranked teams, even if the spread were like a ton, they would cover anyway. If they did not cover, bet on them again and double up. I was thinking about this forum all the time I was there. The people there at the sport arenas are like the people on this forum. They sure love to talk about sports

Here goes my wagering for today.

Lakers -6.5 1U

Over 186.5 1U

[NBA_Brosuf]

adding

Fighting Irish -4.5 1U

They should win since they just had their lucky Irish party over the weekend. LOL

[NBA_Brosuf]

I think I lost this game here.

Rape system: 36-41 +10U

Ok, the weekend trip was a disaster. It snowed and rained in Reno so that means it snowed heavily in the Sierra mountains. I had snow chains with me but have no experiences driving in snow or putting them chains on. My reservation was due today but I chickened out and left yesterday. I got lucky because it snowed less and the driving condition was decent enough that many drivers did not put on their chains. I did and it took me half an hour just to put them chains on and driving at speed less than 30 mph while other people speeding me by. I'm glad I got out because Today is heavily snow and tomorrow will be a winter advisory.

Overall, march madness with their upset games were horrible pickings for me. Nothing went though and losing by half a point isn't cool either. What I do know is that those who bet on top 1st or 2nd ranked teams, even if the spread were like a ton, they would cover anyway. If they did not cover, bet on them again and double up. I was thinking about this forum all the time I was there. The people there at the sport arenas are like the people on this forum. They sure love to talk about sports

Here goes my wagering for today.

Lakers -6.5 1U loser

Over 186.5 1U loser

Rape system: 36-42 +9U

[NBA_Brosuf]

adding

Fighting Irish -4.5 1U loser

They should win since they just had their lucky Irish party over the weekend. LOL

Rape system: 36-43 +8U

[NBA_Brosuf]

bad run.. Oh well, onto the next one.

Orlando -11.5 1U

Orlando owned them cavs this year with a 3-0 run and scoring from previous by 16,15,11. Now them spread is at 11.5. Can Orlando keep it up or should a revenge game will either get cavs winning straight up or even a backdoor cover? Only after tomorrow, we will know. Orlando usually win their 3rd straight game. The only thing about the spread is that Orlando only won 1 game against them suns by double figures in the month of March. Orlando do have a 2 day rest though.

Utah +7.5 1U

Series is even with utah at 1-1 each. Memphis lost to utah by 9 but they got their revenge back by 11. The thing with memphis is that they are consistence in winning a back to back game. I'm not too sure about that heavy spread on a mediocre team though. Utah is also notorious for winning after they lose. They lost to Houston today so stats and figures are showing that they will win SU in Memphis tomorrow. Memphis is good at home and Utah suck azz away. I think a backdoor cover in the making in this game here.

Spurs -10.5 2U

Spurs owned GSW 3 games to none. Each time, it was a winner by 11 or more. Revenge game? well not quite because spurs owned their own court at home. Spurs are notorious for winning their 3rd straight games. They only lose to elite teams on their third game. GSW is not elite right? GSW also has a track record of losing their 5th games in a row. This is GSW back to back road game so they will be playing tired.

One more game will be played today and that is the Indiana and Nets game. I'm waiting for that line to come out.

[JR007]

good luck today...dude.....past stats, revenge, etc.....in many cases has already been reflected into the line......not saying it does not have value.......but i would go on b2b's travel schedules ,stuff like that....in my opinion

[JR007]

The Nuggets should have a lot of energy as they return to Pepsi Center for the first time in nine days. The Nuggets have won their past five home contests by 30 points over Detroit, 40 over Charlotte, 10 over Atlanta, 14 over Boston and 13 over Memphis.

The Nuggets have a far deeper bench than Toronto and also have Danilo Gallinari back.

The Raptors halted a 14-game road losing streak by stunning Oklahoma City, 95-93, on Sunday. The Raptors had failed to cover in their previous nine away matchups.

It's hard to imagine the Raptors being motivated for this matchup. There's also a strong fatigue factor as this is Toronto's third game in four days, second in two days and is being playing in high altitude.

The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.2 points per game and have a vastly superior bench. These are strong indications they can cover this big of a number.

[NBA_Brosuf]

good luck today...dude.....past stats, revenge, etc.....in many cases has already been reflected into the line......not saying it does not have value.......but i would go on b2b's travel schedules ,stuff like that....in my opinion

I'm taking more notes from ya and combine it with them previous tips from ya so that I can review it and put it to memory. There are way too many angles to consider and I know that it is best to see them all but for myself, time is limited and I am basing my plays with as little stats as I can for now. I'll do better next year as this is my first year doing this.

[NBA_Brosuf]

The Nuggets should have a lot of energy as they return to Pepsi Center for the first time in nine days. The Nuggets have won their past five home contests by 30 points over Detroit, 40 over Charlotte, 10 over Atlanta, 14 over Boston and 13 over Memphis.

The Nuggets have a far deeper bench than Toronto and also have Danilo Gallinari back.

The Raptors halted a 14-game road losing streak by stunning Oklahoma City, 95-93, on Sunday. The Raptors had failed to cover in their previous nine away matchups.

It's hard to imagine the Raptors being motivated for this matchup. There's also a strong fatigue factor as this is Toronto's third game in four days, second in two days and is being playing in high altitude.

The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.2 points per game and have a vastly superior bench. These are strong indications they can cover this big of a number.

Wow, you have good insider tips there. You are pulling these good stuff from some kick azz looking sources. I was gonna pull the trigger and riding with Denver but the spread is at -12.5 right now. Alright, you got me convinced so I went ahead and bought Denver for 1U play.


Denver -12.5 1U

Indy -3.5 1U
All of my other sources be telling me to play indy. I had indy in mind yesterday but the line was not out yet. Today, I saw it at -3.5 so I'm excited about this small spread that indy is giving up.

Knicks +2 6U

I'm riding hard on the Knicks today. Yes I know how horrible them knicks are but I'm sticking to this cool trend right here.

NY are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.
Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

I'm taking knicks because Boston has a problem in scoring. In their last 6 games, they are only averaging 85 points. Shaq and Jermaine are still injured and they are not expecting to play in this game. Although Boston is 8-2 against them knicks but them knicks have won against the spread with them Celtics in 6 of them games. Knicks covered both of this year's game but that is without Carmelo so with an addition of Anthony, more value is on them Knicks to win SU or cover.

My biggest play so far this year at 6U I'm a believer. LOL

[playboy_1]

hey bro how is going ) are you killing the bokies??

[NBA_Brosuf]

hey bro how is going ) are you killing the bokies??

Don't ask how I am. Ask where the hell are you when we needed ya?

LOL

NBA is whining down so it is time to ante up and bet hard, that is only if we are in the plus and not in the minus bankroll. Glad to smell you and I have to find that thread by you so I can take a sneak peek.

[JR007]

you will be fine .....read all you can though...justin7 and ganchow...in the think tank.....know how to calculate the no-vig line...positive expected value...all that stuff in my previous posts.....seems like a lot but once you understand.......it falls into place

[NBA_Brosuf]

I really hate capping on the over and under because I do not know how but let me try some for today.
So I'm taking the average scores in 5 games from both teams then add them up and this is what I got.
I'm only playing if the difference is more than 9 points or higher.

Knicks game, 189 predicted. Line is at 198. Under 198 1U
Indy game, 189.6 predicted. Line is at 195. Under 195 no play
Denver game, 205.8 predicted. Line is at 214 Under 214 no play
Orlando game, 183.4 predicted. Line is at 193.5 Under 193.5 1U
Sacramento game, 206.8 predicted. Line is at 196.5 Over 196.5 1U
Memphis game, 207.2 predicted. Line is at 203 Over 203 no play
GSW game, 200.8 predicted. Line is at 210 under 210 1U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Orlando -11.5 1U

Orlando owned them cavs this year with a 3-0 run and scoring from previous by 16,15,11. Now them spread is at 11.5. Can Orlando keep it up or should a revenge game will either get cavs winning straight up or even a backdoor cover? Only after tomorrow, we will know. Orlando usually win their 3rd straight game. The only thing about the spread is that Orlando only won 1 game against them suns by double figures in the month of March. Orlando do have a 2 day rest though.

lose by half a point. Ouch

Rape system: 36-44 +7U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Indy -3.5 1U
All of my other sources be telling me to play indy. I had indy in mind yesterday but the line was not out yet. Today, I saw it at -3.5 so I'm excited about this small spread that indy is giving up.

winner by .5 LOL

What a way to finish and whoever bet on this game had their panties all up in a bunch and down to the last wire. That junk 3 made nets betters happy until the strategy foul at the end gave Indy a chance to cover the spread. NBA, where stupid things happens.

Rape system: 37-44 +8U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Knicks +2 6U

I'm riding hard on the Knicks today. Yes I know how horrible them knicks are but I'm sticking to this cool trend right here.

NY are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.
Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

I'm taking knicks because Boston has a problem in scoring. In their last 6 games, they are only averaging 85 points. Shaq and Jermaine are still injured and they are not expecting to play in this game. Although Boston is 8-2 against them knicks but them knicks have won against the spread with them Celtics in 6 of them games. Knicks covered both of this year's game but that is without Carmelo so with an addition of Anthony, more value is on them Knicks to win SU or cover.

My biggest play so far this year at 6U I'm a believer. LOL

Biggest Loser what the hell. Knicks leading and choking at the end. wahhhh

I no longer believe. Screw this

Rape system: 37-45 +2U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Utah +7.5 1U

Series is even with utah at 1-1 each. Memphis lost to utah by 9 but they got their revenge back by 11. The thing with memphis is that they are consistence in winning a back to back game. I'm not too sure about that heavy spread on a mediocre team though. Utah is also notorious for winning after they lose. They lost to Houston today so stats and figures are showing that they will win SU in Memphis tomorrow. Memphis is good at home and Utah suck azz away. I think a backdoor cover in the making in this game here.

Lose

Rape system: 37-46 +1U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Spurs -10.5 2U

Spurs owned GSW 3 games to none. Each time, it was a winner by 11 or more. Revenge game? well not quite because spurs owned their own court at home. Spurs are notorious for winning their 3rd straight games. They only lose to elite teams on their third game. GSW is not elite right? GSW also has a track record of losing their 5th games in a row. This is GSW back to back road game so they will be playing tired.

Winner

Rape system: 38-46 +3U

[NBA_Brosuf]

I really hate capping on the over and under because I do not know how but let me try some for today.
So I'm taking the average scores in 5 games from both teams then add them up and this is what I got.
I'm only playing if the difference is more than 9 points or higher.

Knicks game, 189 predicted. Line is at 198. Under 198 1U winner
Indy game, 189.6 predicted. Line is at 195. Under 195 no play loser
Denver game, 205.8 predicted. Line is at 214 Under 214 no play winner
Orlando game, 183.4 predicted. Line is at 193.5 Under 193.5 1U winner
Sacramento game, 206.8 predicted. Line is at 196.5 Over 196.5 1U winner
Memphis game, 207.2 predicted. Line is at 203 Over 203 no play loser
GSW game, 200.8 predicted. Line is at 210 under 210 1U winner

Looks like I have a new system of play here. All of my totals that I bet have all won. Sweeping this total for today. I might want to try the system again tomorrow and only play totals for the next few days. Capping nba games have too much angles to look for plus I need to lay low from tonight's loss to die out my emotion. I don't want to go on a tilt run ya know? LOL

Rape system: 42-46 +7U

edit: Denver game went under, barely.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Denver -12.5 1U

This game is still in progress but 40 points lead in the 4th with 6 minutes left so Imma just call this game here as a winner. What a high scoring game for denver for real. Thank you to jr007 for his expertise in the line of tips and tidbits. I tailed him on this one and it won. Way to go Jr007. Me love you long time. LOL

Rape system: 43-46 +8U

[NBA_Brosuf]

In the Parlay world, I'm down to my last 2 tickets. Already won straight up play with them Spurs and now waiting on this card here in the world of Ncaab.

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[618] ALABAMA -5-110 Winner
[620] WASHINGTON STAT -5½-110 Pending
[624] CENTRAL FLORIDA -5-110 Winner

52.00 / 312.00

Should I hedge or not? It is wiser to do so but nah, ALL INNNNNN for more fun. LETS GO WASHINGTON STATE.

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago game 203.4 predict, game line at 180 Over 180 1U

Lakers game 192.6 predict, game line at 199 under 199 no play

[NBA_Brosuf]

In the Parlay world, I'm down to my last 2 tickets. Already won straight up play with them Spurs and now waiting on this card here in the world of Ncaab.

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[618] ALABAMA -5-110 Winner
[620] WASHINGTON STAT -5½-110 Pending
[624] CENTRAL FLORIDA -5-110 Winner

52.00 / 312.00

Should I hedge or not? It is wiser to do so but nah, ALL INNNNNN for more fun. LETS GO WASHINGTON STATE.

From pending to winner

3 teams parlay, yes

[NBA_Brosuf]

I'm not betting on tomorrow's game but had I did, this is what I am going to pick by basing it upon my funky formula system that I'm testing to see if it'll work or not.

I have Chicago spread at 12.5 going against Atl. The spread now is only 4. Value is on chicago -4.

I have Lakers spread at 6.5 going against Suns. The spread now is -7. Value is on Suns +7

I will have Portland spread at 2.5 going against the wiz. The spread is not out yet but wait till the spread to come out for a forecast against the spread. I will have it tomorrow.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Oh what the hell, I might as well play Chicago -4 1U

[JR007]

understand ...that the value is in playing "unders in the NBA......for the past two years they are hitting at almost 54%
public likes scoring...ie (overs)...you will get value of a point to a point and a half with unders....keep looking at what I pm'ed to you

[NBA_Brosuf]

understand ...that the value is in playing "unders in the NBA......for the past two years they are hitting at almost 54%
public likes scoring...ie (overs)...you will get value of a point to a point and a half with unders....keep looking at what I pm'ed to you

See that's the thing. If we run with the same system of play, a 54% is not good enough. 54 is as good as a coin toss but the house will favor the 4%. LOL

What I'm working on is a way to take the average of a team's last 5 games which will somewhat produces the average scores + or - by 9 for a projection to what a team will generate. If a team is consistence enough, they will more likely to throw out the same average scoring on their next game, whether they are on a hot run or a cold run. I take that number and place it against the value of what vegas spread predictors be shelling out. The higher the difference, the more confidence in such betting. The lower, the more risk involve which presents a no play.

Playing with a system will rob a person of their emotional wants and needs and in this case and you are right, I'm like the public who is notorious with betting the over. Let me try my system for a few runs and see how it'll goes. I still have your pm and I also made a copy of it and hang it on my wall for references. Man, sport betting is like a college course. Either you get it or you don't.


Portland game predicts 192.8. Game total given 192.5. This here is an absolutely a no play game.

In regards to the game, Portland should only give 2.6 points. Game spread given is now set at -15.5. Value is on Wizards so Wizards +15.5 1U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Oh what the hell, I might as well play Chicago -4 1U

I'm buying more Chicago since Boozer is playing. Chicago was impressive their last 5 games when Boozer was out but now he's back, it is going to be a fun raping moment in ATL. I hope.

CHI are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Tue. games.

Buying more Chicago with 3 more Units for a total of 4. I'm seeing that Chicago should give them hawks about 12.5 spread but at -4, that's value.

Chicago -4 4U

[NBA_Brosuf]

Suns +7 1U

My instinct goes with the lakers and even with Bynum out, Odom is impressive as of late. The issue here is that Nash is getting healthy after he sat out and when he's back, they won 2 straight. Nash has been playing well as of late scoring something like 20 points, 11 assist. My funky system also shows that it should be Suns who should give Lakers something like 4 points and I'm like What what Huh? If Suns beat Lakers SU then we can say that I should trust my system more often.

LAL are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

[JR007]

Good luck with your system...it is tough...you are right.......have to look at lots of thing to find the value plays....

[NBA_Brosuf]

Good luck with your system...it is tough...you are right.......have to look at lots of thing to find the value plays....

thanks jr.

Next season, I'll be much sharper. This year is just a trail and error thing with me. I have $2k to test things out and so far, I'm still up. It is rather fun playing with the house money and using it to test stuff out.

Lets see how it goes. GAme time starts in a few.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I'm buying more Chicago since Boozer is playing. Chicago was impressive their last 5 games when Boozer was out but now he's back, it is going to be a fun raping moment in ATL. I hope.

CHI are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Tue. games.

Buying more Chicago with 3 more Units for a total of 4. I'm seeing that Chicago should give them hawks about 12.5 spread but at -4, that's value.

Chicago -4 4U

Winner. How easy was it?

Rape system: 44-46 +12U

[NBA_Brosuf]

chicago game 203.4 predict, game line at 180 Over 180 1U

Lakers game 192.6 predict, game line at 199 under 199 no play

Winner


Rape system: 45-46 +13U