Hype Plays

**supernatural** · 12-14-10, 01:35 PM

my book doesnt have lakers 1Q, should i take 1H -5.5 instead?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by supernatural

my book doesnt have lakers 1Q, should i take 1H -5.5 instead?

I think the 1H is probably fine here, though it is a possible sharp line with LA averaging a +4.3 margin and the Wizards being at -2.6 (6.9 point difference). The Lakers are 7-4 ATS on the road on 1H lines and Washington is 5-5 ATS at home on 1H lines. The injuries to Wall and Blatche make it easier though as I'm not really sure how reliable Agent Zero can be these days.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 01:40 PM

and IMO if anyone liked my Nuggets reasoning the line is going heavy in favor of Orlando so you can probably wait and get 3 points or play the ML for Denver.

**supernatural** · 12-14-10, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

I think the 1H is probably fine here, though it is a possible sharp line with LA averaging a +4.3 margin and the Wizards being at -2.6 (6.9 point difference). The Lakers are 7-4 ATS on the road on 1H lines and Washington is 5-5 ATS at home on 1H lines. The injuries to Wall and Blatche make it easier though as I'm not really sure how reliable Agent Zero can be these days.

thanks,i guess ill parlay houston 1h + lakers 1h.
gl tonight

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 01:58 PM

Houston Rockets / Sacramento Kings Under 204
Houston has gone under in 12 of their last 18 games, 13 of their last 18 games at home and 4 of their last 6 games against Sacramento at home. Sacramento has gone under in 12 of their last 16 games, and 5 of their last 5 road games.

Sacramento will also either be without Tyreke Evans or with a very limited Evans and as I mentioned above have really been struggling offensively as of late averaging only 85 PPG on 39% shooting, while Houston has improved defensively allowing about 95 per game and holding opponents to 45% FG shooting.

Sacramento's road scores since November 1st have been:
91-98 @ LAC
80-113 @ LAL
82-100 @ LAC
83-94 @ UTAH
89-103 @ PHO

and all of these games were with Tyreke Evans. These are all pretty good road games, yet not one game reached over 200 total points and in this game we're getting 204.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 02:02 PM

Official Plays:
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -3
Houston Rockets 1H -5
New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189
Houston Rockets / Sacramento Kings Under 204

That's all I'm seeing for now. I will continue to look at information and will post any plays before first tip.

Chauncey Billups is OUT so I am cancelling my Denver play.

**Zuus** · 12-14-10, 02:09 PM

hype-brah,
covers has orlando receiving 52% of plays, but line moved from orlando +1 to -2.5 on 5dimes. that kinda movement usually doesnt happen unless HEAVY public play (like 70%+) U worried some sharp money might be comin in on orlando?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by Zuus

hype-brah,
covers has orlando receiving 52% of plays, but line moved from orlando +1 to -2.5 on 5dimes. that kinda movement usually doesnt happen unless HEAVY public play (like 70%+) U worried some sharp money might be comin in on orlando?

Yes, that is why I am mentioning that the line has flipped. In this case, barring some injury that hasn't been made public yet, I am still confident in my pick that Denver will win this game, but it obviously isn't my top pick of the day seeing as how there are certain questions pertaining to the line movement.

EDIT: Billups is OUT - No Play

**DeeWizzle** · 12-14-10, 03:51 PM

BiIIups is out

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by DeeWizzle

BiIIups is out

Thanks - Didn't see that.

I am scratching the Denver play here and will edit my posts.

I will make it known, however, that I will probably make a small play on the Denver ML since Ty Lawson is very capable, but I can't advise others to make a play on this game now.

**DeeWizzle** · 12-14-10, 04:03 PM

BiIIups hasn't been shooting weII as of Iate, I think Ty wiII speed up the tempo of the game giving the 3rd highest scoring team in the Ieague more posessions. I think a smaII pIay is stiII a good idea. GI

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 04:07 PM

Also an injury update:

Tyreke Evans is OUT and Luther Head will be starting in his place tonight.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by DeeWizzle

BiIIups hasn't been shooting weII as of Iate, I think Ty wiII speed up the tempo of the game giving the 3rd highest scoring team in the Ieague more posessions. I think a smaII pIay is stiII a good idea. GI

I agree I think a small ML play is ideal, but I just can't advise it as a top play for me now.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 04:10 PM

Houston Rockets -9
I've mentioned above in my 1H play for Houston most of the information you need to know, but now that Tyreke Evans is out and Luther Head will be starting in his place, I really like this play. In 8 starts earlier this year, Head only averaged 8 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds.

During Houston's current five game home winning streak, they have won every game by at least 10 except against Oklahoma City where the Thunder made a strong 4th quarter push:

Houston 110, Cleveland 95
Houston 97, Detroit 83
Houston 109, LA Lakers 99
Houston 99, Oklahoma City 98
Houston 111, Golden State 101

Here are the games in which Head has started for Sacramento (Tyreke Evans was starting as well):

NYK 113-106
NJ 86-81 WIN
NOR 75-71 LOSS
@ UTAH 94-83 LOSS
@ LAC 100-82 LOSS
CHI 96-85 LOSS
IND 107-98 LOSS
@ LAL 113-80

Sacramento only broke 100 once against the worst defensive team in the league and scored under 90 six times and that is WITH Tyreke Evans playing. They averaged losing by 20.66 PTS per game on the road in Head's starts. I just don't see them scoring enough points in this game to hang with a very good Houston offensive team, especially when they are 1-10 on the road and have been struggling so much lately to score.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

Official Plays:
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -3
Houston Rockets 1H -5
New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189
Houston Rockets / Sacramento Kings Under 204

That's all I'm seeing for now. I will continue to look at information and will post any plays before first tip.

Chauncey Billups is OUT so I am cancelling my Denver play.

Official Plays:
Houston Rockets -9
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -3
Houston Rockets 1H -5
New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189
Houston Rockets / Sacramento Kings Under 204

Updated.

**nastradamus** · 12-14-10, 04:30 PM

good luck tonight. like Lakers 1Q and under Nets/76ers

**Arsefluff** · 12-14-10, 04:51 PM

Loving the Houston play

Rockets -2.5 1Q
Magic -0.5 1Q
Lakers -3 1Q

Trixie

Thoughts hype??

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Arsefluff

Loving the Houston play

Rockets -2.5 1Q
Magic -0.5 1Q
Lakers -3 1Q

Trixie

Thoughts hype??

I have a write up on the Lakers 1Q so I am a fan of that.

I like the Houston 1H better than the 1Q because Sacramento has kind of had hot shooting starts at the beginning of games randomly, but I do think Houston -2.5 1Q is a solid play looking at a +5.2 1Q margin against a -1.8 1Q margin.

The Magic 1Q would be a no play for me since both teams are among the league's best at 1Q and 1H play and I'm not exactly sure how much Ty Lawson will hurt (or if he will help) Denver.

I think Charlotte is a better 1Q play than Orlando.

**Arsefluff** · 12-14-10, 05:00 PM

yeah billups is big miss if you ask me he's been shooting pretty hot. Plus I just fancy the magic to try to silence the crowd early try and get up early. Taking Houston - 1Q and lakers!

Game on!!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 06:37 PM

The Philadelphia O/U is up to 192 in some places and I would jump on the under if you have that available.

**GTS925** · 12-14-10, 10:09 PM

Nice call on Philadelphia Under!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 11:18 PM

Thanks.

I am looking at a 2nd half play on the GSW/Minnesota game, but nothing certain yet.

**DeeWizzle** · 12-14-10, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by DeeWizzle

BiIIups hasn't been shooting weII as of Iate, I think Ty wiII speed up the tempo of the game giving the 3rd highest scoring team in the Ieague more posessions. I think a smaII pIay is stiII a good idea. GI

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

I agree I think a small ML play is ideal, but I just can't advise it as a top play for me now.

**GTS925** · 12-14-10, 11:29 PM

Hey man, I locked in Denver before you canceled. I also played Den-U aside from PHI-U. 3-0 Thanks Hype!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 11:44 PM

Official Play:

Golden State Warriors 2H -1.5
The refs kept Golden State in it when they were struggling awarding them a ridiculous 23 free throws, and still the Warriors shot poorly missing 10 of them, but in the second quarter things began to click. Michael Beasley is in foul trouble with 3 fouls and Monta Ellis is abusing the Minnesota defense with 21 first half points. Golden State is doing a good job on the boards to this point actually out rebounding Minnesota. The Warriors lead by 3 at half despite being out shot by almost 10%. I expect Golden State to widen their lead in the 2nd half.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 01:01 AM

Houston Rockets -9 W
This was an easy cover as I anticipated. Sacramento is atrocious without Tyreke Evans and their defense may as well be 5 caspers because it's non existent.

Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -3 L
To be honest, I'm not sure what happened here. My guess is the public was too much on this 1Q play since after this quarter Los Angeles blew them out in every quarter. I'm not sure how LA managed to get out rebounded by Washington with no Blanche in the first quarter or why Luke Walton was getting minutes or how the Lakers can only score 22 points in a quarter against Washington, but it happens.

Houston Rockets 1H -5 W
My top play thus far was an easy cover as Houston won the first half by 10.

New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189 W
An easy under cover that was never in doubt. Philadelphia is playing much better lately and New Jersey, as awful as they are, do play solid defense under Avery Johnson.

Houston Rockets / Sacramento Kings Under 204 L
I gave the Rockets too much credit defensively in this one. I knew they would score with ease on Sacramento, but did not think the Kings would be able to muster 95 points without Evans. I actually think this would have covered in the 4th had Houston not had such a huge lead as their bench players played more minutes than the starters and Sacramento was able to put up 33 points on them in the 4th.

Golden State Warriors 2H -1.5 W
Golden State crushed them in the second half giving us an easy, comfortable win to close out the day.

If you took my advice on the -1 Orlando play when I had it posted or my later advice on the Orlando ML, congrats on a good hit.

Overall a winning day, though it should have been better.

My plays for tomorrow will be posted before tip and some likely soon.
Today's Record: 4-2 (67%)
Overall Record: 14-5 (74%)

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 01:32 AM

I will have a few plays up momentarily - looking over things.

**SolarisPoker** · 12-15-10, 01:39 AM

Houston Rockets -9

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 01:42 AM

Boston Celtics -3
Boston comes in this game with a 10 game win streak, while the Knicks come in this game on a streak of their own at 8 games and 13 of their last 14. Unfortunately, the Knicks 8 wins are against basically the bottom cellar of the league excluding a victory at New Orleans, if you still consider them good, and a win vs Denver in New York, if you consider Denver good on the road. During the Knicks current streak, they have only beaten two teams with winning records, and lost in New York to the only top eastern team they have played, Atlanta, by 9. Boston has managed victories at Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at home against Denver, Chicago and Portland. They are coming into this game unbelievably rested, having not played since Saturday when they shut down Charlotte to the tune of 62 points in Charlotte. I think New York is over rated at the moment and the line is not correct. I am predicting a Boston victory in the range of 7 points.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 02:09 AM

San Antonio Spurs -9
Milwaukee is coming off of a big win at Dallas, coming back from a 20 point lead, then almost blowing a 12 point lead with less than 2 minutes left. That means they'll build on it, right? Uh, not so much. I think Milwaukee used a lot of energy in the game vs Dallas and are just happy to get a win on the Texas two-step road trip. Historically, Milwaukee has been a team that has played Dallas tight. Against San Antonio that is not the case. Last season San Antonio beat Milwaukee by 15 at Milwaukee and 14 in San Antonio. Neither team is too different this season, only San Antonio is a bit deeper and better with a healthy Tony Parker and Milwaukee is a bit worse with a lackluster offense.

Milwaukee is 2-9 ATS this season in non-conference games, 0-2 ATS after underdog wins, 0-1 ATS after 3 consecutive wins, 4-7 ATS in road games, 4-8 ATS against teams with winning records and 4-8 ATS against teams that average 99+ per game. San Antonio enters this game 6-0 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, 2-0 ATS after allowing less than 85 points the previous game, 9-2 ATS coming off of a 10 point + victory, 8-3 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins, 9-5 ATS at home and 5-2 ATS as a home favorite giving 6.5-9 points.

Basically, what I'm trying to say here is that Milwaukee is not going to be able to compete with San Antonio in this game. Andrew Bogut is not going to dominate Tim Duncan the way he did the Mavericks and Brandon Jennings isn't likely to torch Tony Parker and George Hill for 23 points and 10 assists the way he did 500 year old Jason Kidd who has trouble keeping up with Shaq in a foot race. Milwaukee basically had the game of their season vs Dallas, with 64 points coming from their bench.

San Antonio is on a 5 game home winning streak with an average margin of victory of 16.2 points. I do not see Milwaukee slowing San Antonio down, nor do I see a repeat performance from the Milwaukee bench or Brandon Jennings.

**Broken-Ear Glen** · 12-15-10, 02:24 AM

love 'em

**GTS925** · 12-15-10, 02:29 AM

Hey Hype, do you think the Heat can win against the crappy Cavs team by 20 points?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by GTS925

Hey Hype, do you think the Heat can win against the crappy Cavs team by 20 points?

Yes, but I would fear a back door cover. I'm not sure how high the lines will be, but I will be looking at Miami 1Q and 1H very strongly in this and they are probably safer bets.

**goblinburner** · 12-15-10, 02:33 AM

i was thinking miami 1 q

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-15-10, 02:34 AM

Dallas Mavericks / Portland Trail Blazers Under 186
Portland is coming off consecutive games where they have failed to score 80 points. In those two games, Brandon Roy has shot 7 of 32 for 16 points. The guy is just not the same and I hate to say it, but he is a bench player at this point because he cannot play long minutes without injuring himself. Portland is not a good road team, with a 5-10 road record, and no victories vs a +.500 team.

Dallas is coming off of a bad loss to Milwaukee in Dallas and will want to take it to a team they know is struggling. Dallas matches up very well with Portland, even finding someone as slow as Jason Kidd to match up with (Roy).

Dallas is coming into this game angry wanting to avenge an embarrassing lost, Portland is coming into this game angry at their teammates wanting a way to score 80 points.

I mean, how can you not love betting against a team where a guy who has shot 7/32 his past two games has gems like this:

Brandon Roy threw Andre Miller under the bus Monday night, saying, "I wasn't that slow until you put a guy who is kind of slow next to me."

Back to the match ups thing, take a look:
Marcus Camby - Brendan Haywood/Tyson Chandler
Lamarcus Aldridge - Dirk Nowitzki/Tyson Chandler/Shawn Marion
Nicolas Batum/Wesley Matthews - Caron Butler/Shawn Marion/Jason Terry
Brandon Roy - Deshawn Stevenson/Jason Terry/Caron Butler/Jason Kidd
Andre Miller - Jason Kidd/Jason Terry/JJ Barea

Honestly, how is Portland going to score? I just don't see them putting up enough points in this game to push the game over. The only chance it has is if Dallas puts up 100+ (probably more like 110), but Portland is actually pretty strong defensively with the 8th best road defense allowing only 97 PPG.