Hype Plays

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-11-10, 06:32 PM

Additional Play:

Houston Rockets 1H -4.5
Cleveland is playing the worst basketball in the league and haven't led at halftime once since their beat down to the Heat. Over their last five Cleveland has been down an average of 12.2 PPG at half and 12 PPG at half on the road.

CHI +6
@ PHI +12
@ DET +5
@ MIN +19
MIA +19

During that stretch, Houston has beaten Oklahoma City, the Lakers, Golden State and Detroit at home. Houston plays well at home and has averaged a +3.6 margin at home this season during the first half, while Cleveland has a -8.1 deficit on the road at halftime average this season. This 11.7 difference, the recent play of Houston at home and Cleveland's struggles on the road give me reason to believe that Houston is a strong first half play.

Good luck to everyone tonight.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-11-10, 11:20 PM

Boston Celtics 1Q -2 WIN
Houston Rockets 1H -4.5 WIN
Dallas Mavericks 1H -3 WIN
Dallas Mavericks -5 WIN

Miami Heat -9 PENDING

4-0 on the day thus far with Miami still playing. I will have my plays before first tipoff tomorrow. Good luck to everyone and I hope you all had a profitable day.

**kiln** · 12-11-10, 11:22 PM

Off topic: The Wire is the best show ever put on TV.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-11-10, 11:23 PM

Agree with that brother.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 12:29 AM

Miami covers the nine to give me a 5-0 day.

Overall Record: 5-0

I will have plays up before morning tipoff tomorrow.

**STC** · 12-12-10, 12:31 AM

Great start!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 02:31 AM

Philadelphia 76ers / New Orleans Hornets Under 187.5
This is my first play of tomorrow and I wanted to post it before it drops. New Orleans has gone under their last five road games and five of their last seven games in Philadelphia. New Orleans has gone under in nine of their previous ten games, and five of their seven games against the east this season. Philadelphia has gone under eight of their last twelve home games and six of their last ten games. New Orleans is 27th in the league in road scoring at 91.5 PPG, while Philadelphia is eighth in the league in home defense allowing only 93.4 PPG. Philadelphia is 20th in the league in home scoring at 99.8 PPG and facing the third best road defense in the league, New Orleans, who are allowing 92.5 PPG. New Orleans is 29th in the league in possessions per game at 92.8, and 24th in the league in road possessions per game at 92.7, meaning they play a slow paced game despite having an outstanding point guard. Philadelphia is 26th in the league with only 92.6 home possessions per game, also meaning they play a slow pace. All of this points me toward a play on the under.

**JOHON8** · 12-12-10, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

Philadelphia 76ers / New Orleans Hornets Under 187.5
This is my first play of tomorrow and I wanted to post it before it drops. New Orleans has gone under their last five road games and five of their last seven games in Philadelphia. New Orleans has gone under in nine of their previous ten games, and five of their seven games against the east this season. Philadelphia has gone under eight of their last twelve home games and six of their last ten games. New Orleans is 27th in the league in road scoring at 91.5 PPG, while Philadelphia is eighth in the league in home defense allowing only 93.4 PPG. Philadelphia is 20th in the league in home scoring at 99.8 PPG and facing the third best road defense in the league, New Orleans, who are allowing 92.5 PPG. New Orleans is 29th in the league in possessions per game at 92.8, and 24th in the league in road possessions per game at 92.7, meaning they play a slow paced game despite having an outstanding point guard. Philadelphia is 26th in the league with only 92.6 home possessions per game, also meaning they play a slow pace. All of this points me toward a play on the under.

good analysis

I think we should look more into how these 2 match up instead of how they've struggled against other teams though don't you think?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

good analysis

I think we should look more into how these 2 match up instead of how they've struggled against other teams though don't you think?

I agree that match ups matter, but I try to look at overall statistics to get a better idea of how the teams will play.

For instance, Philadelphia is a strong home rebounding team allowing only 46.5 per game, which is 5th in the league, while New Orleans is a strong road rebounding team, allowing only 48.9 rebounds per game, good for 6th in the league. Since both teams are in the middle of the league in total rebounds per game and both average around 25% offensive rebounds per game, and that both teams are in the top 10 in the league in defensive rebounding percentage at about 76%, leads me to believe that neither team will have many second chances or a significant rebounding advantage giving neither team a significant possession advantage. Since both teams play a slow pace and are good home/road defensive teams, I believe this points toward a low scoring game.

Philadelphia only draws about 20 fouls per game at home, which is the second worse in the league, while New Orleans draws about 20 fouls per game on the road, which is around 20th in the league, which again leads me to believe that there won't be too many stoppages and free throws since neither team has a dominant slasher or scoring player.

Philadelphia is averaging 46% shooting at home, which is 17th in the league, and New Orleans is shooting around 44% on the road, which is 16th. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that statistically these teams are very even and should play a slow paced, low scoring game.

Of course, I could be completely wrong and one team could go off for over 100 points or both teams could get involved in a shootout, but I'm hoping that isn't the case using these teams tendencies thus far this season.

**lolbear** · 12-12-10, 03:20 AM

Great start BOL tomorrow Philly has been gunning lately w/ meeks and thad though I think I'm gonna spectate that one.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 03:22 AM

Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Clippers Under 192
Okay, so the Clippers enter this game as the 5th worst home scoring team at 95 per and Orlando enters this game as the sixth worse road scoring team as 93 per. Over their last three, Orlando has been the 2nd worst in the league averaging only 87 PPG, while the Clippers haven't faired much better averaging only 89 PPG. Prior to Orlando's beat down at the Jazz, Orlando led the league in road defense allowing only about 91 PPG, but are still 6th in the league as it stands (95PPG). Surprisingly the Clippers are about in the middle of the league in home scoring defense at 97.6 PPG, which stands better than even the Lakers. However, over their last three games at home against pretty decent scoring teams (Lakers, Grizzlies, Kings), they have only been allowing 87 PPG. Prior to that the Clippers also managed to hold San Antonio to 90 in LA. We all know Orlando has been struggling mightily to score these last few games and relying solely on Dwight Howard. I think in this game the size of DeAndre Jordan and the athleticism of Blake Griffin will make it a little more difficult than he is accustomed to and reduce his scoring a bit. I also expect Howard to do the same to Griffin who is a major part of the Clipper offense and if he does his part, could severely limit the Clippers offensive capabilities. The Clippers have also managed to go under in 10 of their last 13 against the Magic in LA, and Orlando has gone under in 5 of their last 7 and 11 of their last 16 road games.

The Clippers are a very good home rebounding team ranking 4th in the league and surprisingly the Magic rank only 22nd in the league in road rebounding, and while the Clippers are 8th in the league in home rebounding, the Magic are 4th in the league in road rebounding, allowing only 39 per game, leading me to believe there likely won't be too many 2nd chance points available. Outside of Griffin, the Clippers just don't have much to score and will need Gordon to go off to stay in this game. On Orlando's side, they just need their players out side of Howard to wake up and start shooting. I'm not sure this is the game they get it done against a Clipper team that has been playing good defense as of late and size wise matches up pretty well with the Magic.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by lolbear

Great start BOL tomorrow Philly has been gunning lately w/ meeks and thad though I think I'm gonna spectate that one.

Cool. Good luck on your plays tomorrow!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 03:41 AM

My other plays tomorrow, as long as the lines aren't crazy, will be:

Los Angeles Lakers 1Q
Oklahoma City Thunder 1H

**STC** · 12-12-10, 04:01 AM

Tailing your Magic Clips play. BOL

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 04:29 AM

BOL to you as well in all of your plays.

Does anyone happen to know a site that has teams records for early games?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 10:29 AM

Oklahoma City Thunder 1H -6.5
The Thunder's half margin at home this season:

vs GSW - +12
vs MIN - +11
vs HOU - +11
vs PHI - +9
vs S.A. - +5
vs CHI - +5
vs N.O. - +2
vs DAL - +1
vs POR - -4
vs UTAH - -16
vs BOS - -21

The two 1st half blowouts both occurred at the beginning of the season in consecutive home games. Since then, the Thunder have only been down at half at home once, to Portland. Against under .500 teams, Oklahoma City has not had a lead smaller than nine at half, and an average of +10.75 half time margin against those teams.

Cleveland, on the other hand, has not had a had a lead or been tied at half since November 16th, when they were tied with Indiana at half at home. Since then, look at Cleveland's first half results:

@ HOU - -8
CHI - -6
@ PHI - -12
@ DET - -5
@ MIN - -19
MIA - -19
BOS - -11
MEM - -6
@ ORL - -11
MIL - -10
@ IND - -25
@ SA - -7
@ NO - -21

That's 13 straight games that Cleveland has trailed at half, and an average of a 12.3 halftime deficit per contest. Narrow that down to Cleveland's average deficit on the road during this time, and you get a staggering -13.5.

Matching up a team averaging a +10.75 half time margin this season vs sub par .500 teams against a Cleveland unit that is averaging a -13.5 half time margin over their last 8 road games and you get over a 24 point game, leading me to believe that Oklahoma City is a strong first half play.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 10:48 AM

Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -2.5
The Lakers own the leagues best average 1Q road margin of victory at 4.3 PPG and face New Jersey who is 23rd in the league in home 1Q margin at only -.2. The Lakers have not trailed at the end of the 1Q since November 19th and have managed a +6.2 1Q road margin during that span in which they have played at Utah, Chicago, the Clippers, Memphis and Houston. Add to the fact that Devin Harris and Derrick Favors are both listed as questionable with injuries, while the Lakers are healthy outside of Andrew Bynum, and this feels like a very solid play. The Nets just do not match up with the Lakers very well and the size and athleticism of Odom and Gasol should limit Brooke Lopez's capabilities. If Devin Harris is unable to go, this means that Jordan Farmar will see some action against his old team and I don't see that as being a match up he will like since the Lakers would be very familiar with him. New Jersey is 27th in the league in home scoring per 1Q at only 23.5 PPG, while the Lakers are 1st in the league averaging 27.5 PPG on the road. While the Lakers possess an obvious advantage in this match up, if Harris is unable to go or is still hampered by his shoulder injury suffered Thursday, the scoring could be very hard to come by for New Jersey. All of this leads me to believe that the Lakers are a strong 1Q play.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 10:49 AM

Official Plays:
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -2.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 1H -6.5
Philadelphia 76ers / New Orleans Hornets Under 187.5
Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Clippers Under 192

Good luck to everyone today on your plays.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 11:48 AM

Just an injury update for New Jersey on the Lakers play:

Devin Harris WILL start.
Derrick Favors WILL play.
Damion James is OUT and Quinton Ross will start in his place.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 02:20 PM

Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -2.5 W
The Lakers were able to cover the first quarter line with a 30-24 1st quarter win.

Philadelphia 76ers / New Orleans Hornets Under 187.5 W
Also covering was the under in the Sixers game by about 30 points. In this situation it appeared my analysis of a low scoring defensive game was correct.

We have two plays remaining for the day which can be found above.

Overall Record: 7-0

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-12-10, 08:12 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder 1H -6.5 W
Easy cover as Oklahoma led the entire half and was up by 20 at point, finishing with an 11 point lead.

Last play of the day is:
Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Clippers Under 192

Overall Record: 8-0

**reppin_the_847** · 12-13-10, 12:13 AM

Man that LAC / ORL Under pick was money. Seems like you've had an incredible day & win-streak. I really enjoyed your analysis and look forward to seeing your future picks. Thanks again bro.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 12:18 AM

Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Clippers Under 192 W
The total of this game was 179 giving us an easy 13 point victory.

To sum up the day:
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -2.5 W
Oklahoma City Thunder 1H -6.5 W
Philadelphia 76ers / New Orleans Hornets Under 187.5 W
Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Clippers Under 192 W

Overall Record: 9-0

I will have plays before tomorrows first tip off and likely much earlier.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by reppin_the_847

Man that LAC / ORL Under pick was money. Seems like you've had an incredible day & win-streak. I really enjoyed your analysis and look forward to seeing your future picks. Thanks again bro.

Thanks. I'm glad you were able to profit off of it.

Good luck on your future plays!

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 01:12 AM

I am seeing anywhere from 2-5 plays tomorrow depending on what certain lines come out at.

Right now, unless the lines are ridiculous, I will be on:
Miami Heat 1Q
Utah Jazz 1Q

I also have one total play for sure and another possibility that I will release when I am able to properly evaluate the teams.

Good luck to everyone.

**GTS925** · 12-13-10, 01:15 AM

Nice start and good luck to your future picks!

**STC** · 12-13-10, 03:45 AM

Killing it mate

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 09:44 AM

Dallas Mavericks / Milwaukee Bucks Over 185.5
The Mavericks, on the season, are averaging 97 PPG. Over their last three home games, Dallas has been averaging 103 PPG and have scored over 100 points in 9 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee comes into this game averaging the 3rd least amount of road points in the league, at 91 per, but have totaled 97, 97 and 96 since the return of Andrew Bogut.

Over the past 10 games between these two teams, the over has hit in eight of them. The lowest of these O/U was 187, which was over by almost 20 points back in 2008. Beside that game, this series has not seen an O/U under 193, which was also short by almost 30 points last season.

Dallas has gone over in 4 of their past 5 games, and 4 of their last 6 home games. Dallas has also gone over in their last 5 games against Milwaukee, as well as their last 5 home games against Milwaukee. While this probably won't be a high scoring game in the 100's for both teams, I do think it goes over by at least 7 points.

The over is the play here.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 10:57 AM

Miami Heat 1Q -3
I expect Miami to come out firing in this game as they have not played at home since December 4th. In that game, versus Atlanta, they won the 1st quarter by an 11 point margin.

In fact, here is Miami's 1Q margin at home this season:
ATL +11
DET +11
WSH +3
PHI +8
IND +3
CHA +8
PHO +3
TOR +9
BOS -7
UTAH +12
NJ -1
MIN +6
ORL 0

In thirteen home games this season, Miami has only trailed after the first quarter twice and has not trailed after the 1Q since November 11.

During that same span, here is the Hornets 1Q record on the road:

PHI -7
S.A. -11
OKC -4
POR -7
UTAH -1
LAC +4
SAC -2
DAL -3
MIL +5
HOU 0
S.A. -7

That's two leads in 11 road games this season, and only one lead after the 1Q since November 11 against the lowly Clippers, who at the time were 2-13 (2-6 at home).

Add those statistics to the recent play of these teams nd athat Miami is 4th in the league in home 1Q scoring at +5.1, while New Orleans is 21st in the league in 1Q road scoring (-3.0), giving us an 8.1 average 1Q difference and you see why I like this pick so much.

Oh, and did I mention that New Orleans played last night against Philadelphia scoring only 70 points the entire game?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 11:07 AM

Utah Jazz 1Q -3
I know we all think of Utah as a poor 1Q team with an exact 1Q average margin of 0.0, but have you seen who they are playing? That would be the league's worst 1Q team, the Golden State Warriors, who trail on the road after the first quarter by a staggering -7.5 PPG average. As if I needed to say more, Steph Curry's status for this game is very questionable after missing the last three games and even if he were to play, might take a half or so to get back into the groove of things.

I think I can just show you the GSW road 1Q's this season and not even mention Utah's break even home 1Q thus far this season.

SA -10
DAL -1
OKC -15
MIN +2
MEM -6
HOU -13
LAL -16
MIL -8
CHI -14
NYK +2
TOR +7
DET -5
LAL -20

Man, do these guys suck or what? They have led only three times after the first quarter on the road this season against possibly the two worst teams in the league, Toronto and Minnesota, and the Knicks, who at the time were 3-5 (1-3 at home). Against the top Western Conference teams (LAL, DAL, SA, OKC) they have had 1Q deficits of 20, 16, 15, 10 and 1 and a 14 point deficit against the only top Eastern Conference team they have played, Chicago.

I expect Utah to come in this game angry after a day's rest from another loss to Dallas and try to rip Golden State apart before they begin a 7 in 8 game road trip and get a win they need to send them out the right way.

Utah 1Q -3 is the play for me here.

**Mr. Yo** · 12-13-10, 11:10 AM

Nice right up. Think I'll follow for 1 unit and see how it goes. Do you twitter your picks?

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 11:11 AM

No, I don't have the following right now to do that. I only post my plays here. Obviously if more people start tailing and I am able to keep up my high win rate, I will twitter for convenience.

Best of luck to you today on all of your plays.

A heads up to everyone who happens to like the 1Q plays, I believe that you can parlay the 1Q ML's on Miami and Utah and get even money back.

**GTS925** · 12-13-10, 11:21 AM

Good luck on your picks for tonight. I am following your MIL/DAL play as my bookie doesn't offer 1Q plays. I hope you stay undefeated.

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-13-10, 11:33 AM

Thanks, good luck to you.

That's all I'm seeing basketball wise tonight, but I will keep checking out my statistics and will be sure to post any further plays before tipoff.

Official Plays:
Dallas Mavericks / Milwaukee Bucks Over 185.5
Miami Heat 1Q -3
Utah Jazz 1Q -3

Gambler's tip:
Miami Heat 1Q ML and Utah Jazz 1Q ML Parlay brings even money.