like your post.I will follow.very nice to share your pick.thank you.
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thanks, good luck.Comment -
I like your theory behind ur picks bud, will post mine soon... My book doesnt offer quarters yet ??? OhhComment -
Cool, good luck on your plays. I would definitely advise finding a book that posts 1Q/3Q plays.Comment -
Injury update concerning the Jazz/GSW game:
Stephen Curry has been ruled OUT.Comment -
Would you take heat -3.5 and jazz -3.5????????Comment -
I probably would, though I think you can wait a bit and see if they drop back down to 3.Comment -
thoughts on
Heat ml
Jazz ml
Dallas ml
Giants (NFL)Comment -
Heat, Jazz and Dallas should win. The Miami and Utah ML prices are pretty high though.
Giants wise I like them -3 1H as the Vikings are 1-5 1H ATS at home and the Giants are 3-2 ATS on the road. I think the Giants will probably win, but they tend to have random games late in the season where they disappoint and we don't know the status of Favre.
If you're asking this as a parlay, I don't normally parlay. If I had to I would probably parlay those three NBA teams, but I think it's a pretty steep price and I wouldn't play it.
If you are in a parlaying mood I'd give the Heat 1Q/Jazz 1Q ML parlay a shot as it should return about even money.Comment -
here r my parlay plays
12/13/2010 @ 05:35 PM NFL[133] BALTIMORE +3EV (B+6)12/13/2010 @ 04:35 PM NBA[501] TOTAL o182-110 (B+5)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs MIAMI)12/13/2010 @ 05:05 PM NBA[503] INDIANA +13-110 (B+5)12/13/2010 @ 05:35 PM NBA[507] MILWAUKEE +12½-110 (B+5)12/13/2010 @ 05:35 PM NBA[507] TOTAL o180½-110 (B+5)
(MILWAUKEE vrs DALLAS)
and
12/13/2010 @ 05:35 PM NFL[133] BALTIMORE -3EV12/13/2010 @ 04:35 PM NBA[1501] 1H NEW ORLEANS +6½-11012/13/2010 @ 05:35 PM NBA[3508] 1Q DALLAS -2½-11512/13/2010 @ 06:05 PM NBA[3510] 1Q UTAH -3½-115Comment -
good luckComment -
Dallas Mavericks -7
The line on this game keeps changing, but I really like Dallas here. Dallas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10, while Milwaukee is 3-6-1. Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season and 0-4 ATS and SU on the road against Western Conference teams. The Bucks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 overall.
Another interesting note is that Utah was +5.5 last game at Dallas and lost 103-97. As I mention below, Milwaukee lost by 21 at Utah on November 29th, when Utah was a -9.5 favorite. My point with this is, how can Milwaukee only be less than 2 points of an underdog at Dallas when Utah dismantled them and has been unable to beat Dallas in Utah or away from Utah?
Here has been Milwaukee's scores against Western Conference teams on the road this season:
MIL +3 @ NO - 95-91 NO
MIL -4.5 @ MIN - 96-85 MIN
MIL +9.5 @ UTAH - 109-88 UTAH
MIL +8.5 @ DEN - 105-94 DEN
I am picking this game to go over, so I do think that Milwaukee will be able to score, but they will not be able to hang with Dallas who should go over 100 for the 10th time in their last 11 games. Dallas is strong enough defensively where I can see Milwaukee scoring between 88-95 points losing something like 103-92.Comment -
These will be my four plays for tonight.
Official Plays:
Dallas Mavericks -7
Miami Heat 1Q -3
Utah Jazz 1Q -3
Dallas Mavericks / Milwaukee Bucks Over 185.5Comment -
Nice start Hype keep up the good work.Comment -
what about Dallas -2.5 1QComment -
Hi BelieveTheHype
nice work, just create a user to follow your tips.
keep on the good record
GLComment -
I like your plays, i hope you get them all, parlaying 'em (if they hit great), if they don't, tomorrow will be another day
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Miami 1Q is a miss by 1 point after Dampier fouls David West with 6 seconds left in the quarter to give him free throws and LeBron misses a jumper on the other end as time expires. Real difference is the 10 first quarter free throws that New Orleans was inexplicably given.
If you played the 1Q ML parlay you're still alive though as Miami did win the quarter, so good luck to you and good luck to everyone else in your plays.Comment -
like your picks.. just wanna let you know imma be tailing you for a bunch.. good luck to us.. keep up the good work.. !!!Comment -
Thanks.
Not a good night for me, finishing 1-3 bringing my record to 10-3.
The over in the Mavericks game hit easily as I thought it would, unfortunately the Heat lost on free throws at the end of the 1Q to blow the cover by 1and Dallas blew a 20 point lead to eventually lose to Milwaukee. Utah was never really in it, shooting under 40% against one of the worst defensive teams in the league without their 2nd best player, Stephen Curry.
I will have my plays for tomorrow posted before first tip. Good luck to everyone on all of your plays.Comment -
Thanks for the DAL Over play! Keep it up
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Sure, glad you were able to profit off of it (I hope).
Here are my plays tomorrow unless there is a ridiculous line:
Denver Nuggets -1
Houston Rockets 1H
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q
New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189Comment -
DENVER IS A NO PLAY - CHAUNCEY BILLUPS IS OUT
Denver is the top home team in the league thus far this season at 10-1. Denver is coming off of a tough road loss at New York and should be pissed in this game. I expect Carmelo to come out firing in hopes of shutting up all the talk about his eventual move to the Knicks. For whatever reason, Chauncey Billups plays well against Orlando as he averages 21 PPG against them, the most he does against any team.
Orlando has lost 6 of 7 games in Denver since Carmelo joined the team and all 6 games in which Anthony actually played. The Clippers are coming off a tough road trip, but should be ready to once again defend their home turf as they have won 9 in a row at home and their only loss at home this season has come against probably the league's best team, Dallas, by one point.
Orlando is 1-2 on their Western Conference road trip thus far getting blown out by 14 at Portland and 12 at Utah before squeaking out a nine point victory against the Clippers after almost blowing a huge half time lead.
I like Denver in this spot to win the game in basically a pick 'em line, but do expect the public to be on Orlando because of Denver's road trip woes. Just keep in mind that Denver is a completely different team at home.Comment -
New Jersey Nets / Philadelphia 76ers Under 189
New Jersey has gone under in 6 of their last 9 home games. Philadelphia has gone under in 9 of their last 13 games, 4 of their last 5 road games and 5 of their last 6 games against the Nets.
New Jersey is 28th in home PPG averaging just under 95 PPG, while Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack in road scoring averaging about 97 PPG. The last three games these teams have played in New Jersey have gone well under with scores like 83-79 (189.5 total), 82-79 (188.5 total) and 96-67 (196 total).
Philadelphia's road totals have been the following since November 11th:
90 PTS (DALLAS)
93 PTS (SAN ANTONIO)
93 PTS (CLEVELAND)
114 PTS (WASHINGTON)
90 PTS (TORONTO)
90 PTS (MIAMI)
88 PTS (ATLANTA)
As you can see, outside of one game, Philadelphia does not score a lot of points on the road. Philadelphia has also been playing better of late, but all of this comes at home. On the season, Philadelphia is 1-10 on the road.
Neither team gives up too many second chance points at about 24% offensive rebound rate per game and both teams do not get to the line to often with Philadelphia only averaging .298 FT per FG attempt and New Jersey averaging slightly better at .316 FT per FG attempt. Defensively both teams are very similar having the same opponent rebound rates, blocks and fouls per game. Philadelphia is a slightly better offensive team, and has played significantly better defense as of late allowing only 88 PPG over their last seven. Couple this with New Jersey having offensive troubles, averaging only 88 PPG over their last five games and I see a good chance for an under in this game.Comment -
One of my plays today will likely be my favorite of the season thus far.Comment -
Which is? And who would you lean on in the PHI @ NJN contest?Comment -
The line isn't out yet and I expect it to be -4.5 or -5, but the play would be Houston 1H.
I don't have a play on the Sixers game because I do think both teams are reasonably close when road/home is favored in, but looking at my notes, I would lean toward Sixers. They are about equal defensively in this case and the Sixers are a better offensive team. New Jersey has only been averaging 88 PPG last 5 and Sixers are 5-0 SU in last 5 vs NJ. In cases like this I tend to roll with the hotter team which is obviously Philadelphia as they come into this game 9-1 ATS in their last 10 while New Jersey is 1-4 ATS last 5 and 2-7 SU in last 9 at home.Comment -
Do you like the under on DEN/ORL?Comment -
What book offers moneylines on quarters? I don't think bookmaker does.Comment -
Houston Rockets 1H -5
I really love this play. I would even venture to say at this point in the season, this may be my favorite play. Houston is coming into this game having won 5 straight home games and really seems to have found themselves as of late. They are playing Sacramento who is on a 5 game road skid and has not won a road game since October 30th against Cleveland with every loss being in double digits.
Sacramento will be playing against former teammate Kevin Martin, who is coming off of a 40 point game, for the second time since dealing him to Houston. In his first game against Sacramento, Martin put up 39 last season.
Sacramento is the worst team in the league at covering first half road lines at a record of 0-9 ATS. They are also third worst in the league in average road half margin at -9.4 PPG. Houston, on the other hand, stands at having one of the league's best 1st half ATS home records at a healthy 7-3. Houston is 12th in the league in first half margin at 4.0 PPG. Houston also stands at 3rd best in the league in 1Q home margins, holding a +5.2 advantage and see that Sacramento is standing at a -1.8 road 1Q average margin. We see that where Houston has problems is the 2nd quarter, where they are standing at a -1.2 margin per quarter, but see that they are playing Sacramento, who is the league's worst 2Q road team at an awful -7.6 line.
Over the last five, Sacramento has been averaging a paltry 85 PPG on 39% shooting, while Houston has held opponents to 95 PPG during their current home win streak, 7 below their season average. We then look at injuries and see that the Kings best player by far, Tyreke Evans, was not even expected to make this trip, but has and is doubtful to questionable for this game. Evans, either way, may be doing more harm than good. In his last two games since this injury started flaming up, Evans has shot 4-19 from the floor for a combined 13 points and it wasn't like he was lighting the world on fire before this, averaging 14 PPG in December on 35% shooting.
We can then look at Houston's 1H Home margins during their current win streak and see this:
vs CLE +8
vs DET +8
vs LAL -3
VS OKC +8
vs GSW +8
8 point leads against every team except the Lakers, who Houston eventually beat.
Sacramento's recent 1H road margins:
@ LAC -6
@ LAL -16
@ LAC -4
@ UTAH -12
@ PHO -8
@ CLE -14
@ NJ -8
@ MIN -5
They haven't led after the first half once this season and the closest they have been is 4 points.
All of these are reasons I love Houston for the 1H.Comment -
Thanks. And on the Phillie/NJN total is now at 190. I saw 188.5 ast night. Would you be worried here since its going away from the under?Comment -
hmm this could be a consensus play for me. i wanted to play hou -9, but hou -5 1h seems niceComment -
Los Angeles Lakers 1Q -3
The Lakers hold the leagues second best road 1Q margin at +4.4 per game and are playing Washington who is 23rd in the league averaging a -.5 margin per 1Q at home.
I tend to think of Washington as having a break at home so far this season facing pretty poor road teams in PHI, CLE, HOU, CHA, TOR, MEM, ORL, POR, and NYK. Only three of those teams are any good and they trailed Portland by 6 after 1, Orlando by 10.
The Wizards best big man and possibly their best player, Andray Blatche, who is averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds per game, has also been ruled out for this game meaning the Lakers may roam free inside. John Wall, who also might be the Wizards best player, is also ruled out for this game.
As if that news isn't enough, here is the Lakers recent 1Q Margins on road:
@ NJ +6
@ CHI +10
@ LAC +2
@ HOU +3
@ MEM 0
@ UTAH +16
I just don't see Washington having nearly the talent or depth here to stay with Los Angeles when they come out strong in this game and honestly expect Washington to come out sluggish having not played since Friday and being without possibly their two best players.Comment -
Obviously this is alarming and everyone has the right to not play it, but I would still play the under at 188.5 and take 190 as a gift. All of my numbers point in favor of an under, and obviously I could be completely off, but it's just the feel I get for this game.
The 76ers have gone under in 11 of their 18 games against the East this season, 9 of their last 13, 4 of their last 5 road games and 5 of their last 6 games vs New Jersey, while New Jersey has gone under in 6 of their last 9 home games and these teams have a 3-7 O/U record out of their last 10 and have gone way under in their last three games in New Jersey.
But again, I could be way off and Philadelphia may come into New Jersey and smoke them.Comment
