Money Line Parlays in the NBA = By Far the Best Way to Bet

**curious** · 12-17-10, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by c1onebell

where can you find the data for NCAA basketball; I only found NCAA football in sportsdatabase.
and i check the results of NCAAB games for last 3 week, and the ML winning% is less than 80% for <= -7.
is NCAA good enough to play ML?

You have to cap each NCAAB game and you have to be ready for a big loss. But, yes NCAAB is very profitable IF you cap each game and you have a source of inside information.

You can get all the information you need, you will have to dig for it. And no, I won't provide it. I give out the sportsdatabase link because that is a tool that should be part and parcel of everyone's tools.

I have pointed you in the right direction now you have work to do.

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 12:18 PM

Thanks curious that would be great...when I entered in the query you gave me I looked at the number in parenthesis behind the SU games won / lost....I assumed that was the amount of units won / lost???

And if sportsdatabase is true then why not just bet EVERY team on the ML at -500 or greater odds since we would be up $5K????

**dom75** · 12-17-10, 12:24 PM

And if sportsdatabase is true then why not just bet EVERY team on the ML at -500 or greater odds since we would be up $5K????

That is not a good thing to do, trust me. I have thought the same thing and in college football and basketball, a huge ML doesn't alway mean it is a for sure win. I have lost a few parlays like that and it seems that there is always one or two teams each time that screw ya.

**gtboy** · 12-17-10, 12:30 PM

sorry if this is redundant but whats the sportsdatabase link Curious gives. try searching but cant find it. thanks.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by gtboy

sorry if this is redundant but whats the sportsdatabase link Curious gives. try searching but cant find it. thanks.

It is redundant and you are a crackhead but I'll give you the link nonetheless.

Welcome to nginx!

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/

**curious** · 12-17-10, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Thanks curious that would be great...when I entered in the query you gave me I looked at the number in parenthesis behind the SU games won / lost....I assumed that was the amount of units won / lost???

And if sportsdatabase is true then why not just bet EVERY team on the ML at -500 or greater odds since we would be up $5K????

Why not just go outside and kill yourself?

You HAVE to cap, you HAVE to cap, you HAVE to cap.

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 12:52 PM

Ha Ha....I understand Curious....I really do....nothing in sports betting is easy....so now one more question...is doing something like this tonight something that would be ok to do? I like 3 teams tonight and so I would place these parlays:

Tennessee / Virginia

Tennessee / Mavericks

Mavericks / Virginia

Mavericks / Virginia / Tennessee

And I would do all of them for the SAME AMOUNT....thanks again for everything Curious.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Ha Ha....I understand Curious....I really do....nothing in sports betting is easy....so now one more question...is doing something like this tonight something that would be ok to do? I like 3 teams tonight and so I would place these parlays:

Tennessee / Virginia

Tennessee / Mavericks

Mavericks / Virginia

Mavericks / Virginia / Tennessee

And I would do all of them for the SAME AMOUNT....thanks again for everything Curious.

Don't do them all for the same amount, that is stupid.

Well, there is the professional strategy that you really should do, and then there is the way I post it on here because of the way the books work. You can't tell a book that you want a bunch of parlays all to win the same amount. You can risk the same amount, but you can't win the same amount. You ALWAYS make parlays to win the same amount, which means you risk more on the longer odds. I don't post them that way on here because it would take a really long time to type all that crap. You only have 3 teams so I will break it down that way.

I wouldn't play a 3 pick with only 3 teams, but if you insist I would make it to win $1000.

Tennessee -850
Virginia -400
Dallas -300

Dallas Virginia -150 $2520 to win $1680
Dallas Tennessee -204 $2520 to win $1235
Virginia Tennessee -252 $2520 to win $1000

Virginia Tennessee Dallas -116 $1160 to win $1000

Good luck.

This looks like a good ticket.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 01:56 PM

Okay, this is a test play, don't go crazy on it. I was talking to a guy in another thread, he compares the win% of the away team to the win% of the home team and if the difference is significant he plays the one that is better. I made those comparisons for today's teams and I came up with these 3 that are not already in my picks for today:
Toronto
Detroit
Houston

I know, I wanted to kill myself, but look at this, compare the win% of the matchup:
New Jersey Toronto 0.154 0.462
L.A. Clippers Detroit 0 0.5
Memphis Houston 0.3 0.636

So, let's do an experiment. 2x and 3x on all teams, let's say risking $500
Toronto -200
Detroit -155
Houston -150

Toronto Detroit +147 $500 to win $735
Toronto Houston +150 $500 to win $750
Detroit Houston +174 $500 to win $870

Toronto Detroit Houston +311 $500 to win $1555

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by curious

Don't do them all for the same amount, that is stupid.

Well, there is the professional strategy that you really should do, and then there is the way I post it on here because of the way the books work. You can't tell a book that you want a bunch of parlays all to win the same amount. You can risk the same amount, but you can't win the same amount. You ALWAYS make parlays to win the same amount, which means you risk more on the longer odds. I don't post them that way on here because it would take a really long time to type all that crap. You only have 3 teams so I will break it down that way.

I wouldn't play a 3 pick with only 3 teams, but if you insist I would make it to win $1000.

Tennessee -850
Virginia -400
Dallas -300

Dallas Virginia -150 $2520 to win $1680
Dallas Tennessee -204 $2520 to win $1235
Virginia Tennessee -252 $2520 to win $1000

Virginia Tennessee Dallas -116 $1160 to win $1000

Good luck.

This looks like a good ticket.

Curious...I am confused...I thought you said earlier to play them ALL TO WIN the same amount? Maybe I read it wrong? If not to win all the same amount, then how do I know how much to play them for?? And also, why not do a pick 3? Thanks again for all you do

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by curious

Okay, this is a test play, don't go crazy on it. I was talking to a guy in another thread, he compares the win% of the away team to the win% of the home team and if the difference is significant he plays the one that is better. I made those comparisons for today's teams and I came up with these 3 that are not already in my picks for today:
Toronto
Detroit
Houston

I know, I wanted to kill myself, but look at this, compare the win% of the matchup:
New Jersey Toronto 0.154 0.462
L.A. Clippers Detroit 0 0.5
Memphis Houston 0.3 0.636

So, let's do an experiment. 2x and 3x on all teams, let's say risking $500
Toronto -200
Detroit -155
Houston -150

Toronto Detroit +147 $500 to win $735
Toronto Houston +150 $500 to win $750
Detroit Houston +174 $500 to win $870

Toronto Detroit Houston +311 $500 to win $1555

That actually sounds like a good strategy there Curious....would be interesting to see how it has done over the past few years...I like it!

**curious** · 12-17-10, 02:04 PM

This is referring to the experimental parlay up above. One thing I REALLY like is that the the parlay odds are all +. For small players this is REALLY significant. If this works, what you could do is only play these guys for + odds. Your bankroll would build up pretty good in a short time.

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 02:06 PM

Good point Curious...I bet this would work in ALL sports....

**curious** · 12-17-10, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Curious...I am confused...I thought you said earlier to play them ALL TO WIN the same amount? Maybe I read it wrong? If not to win all the same amount, then how do I know how much to play them for?? And also, why not do a pick 3? Thanks again for all you do

No, I did not say to do them to win the same amount, I said to risk the same amount. That way the bigger favorites have more risked on them which is the way it should be. Take two parlays:
Parlay 1 Team A -200 Team B -290
Parlay 2 Team C -500 Team D -700

Which parlay has the best chance of winning? Parlay 2, so I want to risk more money on parlay 2. How much more? That part is easy, just bet all the parlays to win the same amount.

You only have 3 teams, I wouldn't do a pick 3, I'm trying to lower the risk. I am EXTREMELY risk adverse, which is why I have a good bankroll even after getting killed in the MBA.

Most of the players that I see on this forum either have no idea how to measure risk, don't care about risk, or love risk. It is very strange to me.

**obamaismyuncle** · 12-17-10, 02:11 PM

just posting this here for the hell of it....

#27567099: Parlay (12-17-2010 14:08)
Toronto Raptors ( -192) (FG) 100.00 498.00
Miami Heat ( -200) (FG)
Los Angeles Lakers ( -230) (FG)
Atlanta Hawks ( -270) (FG)
Dallas Mavericks ( -300) (FG)

**balman** · 12-17-10, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by curious

Is this parlay card coming from Canada? Parlay cards usually suck really bad, but every once in a while you can get something that is really off in your favor. In some places letting gamblers use the true odds is considered "gambling". But, selling a parlay card where the odds are not true odds is not considered "gambling". I know, its stupid. SOMETIMES you can get a parlay where the odds have really moved against the card since the opening. When this happens you have to jump all over that play.

Personally I don't waste time with parlay cards. If you use them use them to find an edge in your favor.

yes i'm from Canada and have a bookmaker account, i did compare a play on the parlay card vs regular parlay and the payout was worse on the parlay card so i didnt understand why anyone would play the parlay card.

thanks

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by curious

No, I did not say to do them to win the same amount, I said to risk the same amount. That way the bigger favorites have more risked on them which is the way it should be. Take two parlays:
Parlay 1 Team A -200 Team B -290
Parlay 2 Team C -500 Team D -700

Which parlay has the best chance of winning? Parlay 2, so I want to risk more money on parlay 2. How much more? That part is easy, just bet all the parlays to win the same amount.

You only have 3 teams, I wouldn't do a pick 3, I'm trying to lower the risk. I am EXTREMELY risk adverse, which is why I have a good bankroll even after getting killed in the MBA.

Most of the players that I see on this forum either have no idea how to measure risk, don't care about risk, or love risk. It is very strange to me.

Ok...so I should bet all the parlays TO WIN the same amount...got it....but you say you wouldn't do a pick 3 because of risk, but I have seen you place 5+ team parlays, so I guess I am a little confused....thanks Curious!

**curious** · 12-17-10, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Ok...so I should bet all the parlays TO WIN the same amount...got it....but you say you wouldn't do a pick 3 because of risk, but I have seen you place 5+ team parlays, so I guess I am a little confused....thanks Curious!

If I placed a 5 team parlay I probably had 7 or 8 teams. Well, I did do some round robins of every possible parlay size up to and including the number of teams I was betting. I did say later on that I wouldn't recommend that. I think I lost on those plays.

You had 3 teams. If you only have 3 teams and you play a 3 pick parlay your risk goes way up.

Be risk adverse until you know that you have an edge, still be risk adverse even when you do know that you have an edge, but there is a big difference in how you manage risk knowing you have an edge and just following some formula that some knucklehead gave you on a forum.

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 02:34 PM

Sounds good Curious....well here goes for me tonight:

Atlanta Hawks / Tennessee

Mavericks / Tennessee

Hawks / Mavericks

All to win the same amount....good luck guys

**gtboy** · 12-17-10, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by curious

It is redundant and you are a crackhead but I'll give you the link nonetheless.

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/

funny thanks man. i had it but did not realize it.

**SimonSayz** · 12-17-10, 03:40 PM

Fellas...this is a kick a$$ thread and I am glad it's going strong....I have been playing 8 point teasers with three teams for the past few weeks and have never thought about the ML Option....for tonight....I am looking at the following:

Thunder -3.5
Portland PK
Indiana -1/2
Tennessee -5

My philosophy has been to target the games that have point spreads in the 8-12 point range and tease them down to PK-4 points...it has worked to this point and hopefully will continue to do so.

Let's crush bookies tonight fellas...glad to see all the great insight for our one common goal....

**jolmscheid** · 12-17-10, 03:54 PM

Curious said not to do that ...

**SimonSayz** · 12-17-10, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Curious said not to do that ...

I am starting to read back and finding a ton of great insight....never mind me...just learning here....!

**rsnnh12** · 12-17-10, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Curious said not to do that ...

.... so that means its automatically a bad idea?

**SimonSayz** · 12-17-10, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by curious

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Dallas -300 (NBA)
Portland -600 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA) (books are giving a line of -7 1/2 but no ML, crackheads)

Going to go ahead and give the plays on the 8 teams using -325 for Atlanta, if the line changes a lot I will update the plays. I'm making the plays for the first 7 teams now, when Atlanta becomes available I will make the Atlanta play.

Doing 2x and 3x RR (2 pick round robin and 3 pick round robin)

Betting $200 per play, that gives us $16,800 to win $11,100

Good luck everyone!

For the books that don't offer the "round robin parlay", the solution would be to enter all the '2x' games in as pairs of 2 and the '3x' games as a group of 3....for all games listed? Am I reading this correct?

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

For the books that don't offer the "round robin parlay", the solution would be to enter all the '2x' games in as pairs of 2 and the '3x' games as a group of 3....for all games listed? Am I reading this correct?

Online books mostly totally suck for round robins. The number before the x is the number of teams in the round robin, so 2x is two teams, 3x is three teams, 4x is four teams.

Some books will let you place a bunch of two team parlays together but won't let you place two team and three team together, you have to do the two team first, then come back and do the three team.

If you do it that way just make sure that you are betting the 3 teamers to win the same amount as the two teamers. The reason is simple, a two teamer is more likely to win than a three teamer.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

Fellas...this is a kick a$$ thread and I am glad it's going strong....I have been playing 8 point teasers with three teams for the past few weeks and have never thought about the ML Option....for tonight....I am looking at the following:

Thunder -3.5
Portland PK
Indiana -1/2
Tennessee -5

My philosophy has been to target the games that have point spreads in the 8-12 point range and tease them down to PK-4 points...it has worked to this point and hopefully will continue to do so.

Let's crush bookies tonight fellas...glad to see all the great insight for our one common goal....

I have always found ML parlays to be a better deal than 8 point teasers. Price the games both ways and see what you get.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Curious said not to do that ...

Is curious god? LOL

**cheezhead62** · 12-17-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by curious

Is curious god? LOL

No but his avatar looks kind like Moses after a long binge... lol.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

For the books that don't offer the "round robin parlay", the solution would be to enter all the '2x' games in as pairs of 2 and the '3x' games as a group of 3....for all games listed? Am I reading this correct?

I'm not sure I quite understand your question, so let's use an example. Here are today's picks:
Indiana -400 (NBA)
Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Dallas -300 (NBA)
Portland -600 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA) (books are giving a line of -7 1/2 but no ML, crackheads)

Let's say that our sportsbook does not offer round robins. Then we have to do this by hand.

For 2x we take all the teams and generate every possible 2 pick parlay. that would look like this. Now I did not list the amount bet, every game will be different because the amount to win needs to be the same on every parlay. Let's say that you want to win $100, then you have to bet an amount to win $100 on each parlay. I'll leave it to you to calculate the amount to bet, of course Excel can do that for you. What I am listing is the team name and the line.

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Dallas -300 (NBA)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Portland -600 (NBA)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Indiana -400 (NBA)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Dallas -300 (NBA)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Portland -600 (NBA)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Oklahoma City -850 (NBA)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Dallas -300 (NBA)
Portland -600 (NBA)

Dallas -300 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)

Dallas -300 (NBA)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)

Dallas -300 (NBA)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Dallas -300 (NBA)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Portland -600 (NBA)
Virginia -320 (NCAAB)

Portland -600 (NBA)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)

Portland -600 (NBA)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Portland -600 (NBA)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Virginia -320 (NCAAB)
Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)

Virginia -320 (NCAAB)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Virginia -320 (NCAAB)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)
Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)

Tennessee -750 (NCAAB)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

Colorado -2000 (NCAAB)
Atlanta -325 ?? (NBA)

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by cheezhead62

No but his avatar looks kind like Moses after a long binge... lol.

I always thought that was a good picture of me. That is a real picture of me.

**obamaismyuncle** · 12-17-10, 05:39 PM

I have ATL on 5 separate books of mine 275-290

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by rsnnh12

.... so that means its automatically a bad idea?

I would do it because curious said not to do it.

**curious** · 12-17-10, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Sounds good Curious....well here goes for me tonight:

Atlanta Hawks / Tennessee

Mavericks / Tennessee

Hawks / Mavericks

All to win the same amount....good luck guys

This is crazy, all parlays to win the same amount?

**brahmabull117** · 12-17-10, 06:01 PM

lots of excellent choices today

here is a very safe parlay

Pacers
Hawks
Thunder
Trailblazers

all are playing absolutely atrocious road teams. Cleveland has already lost to the pacers twice this year, Charlotte has been godawful and is missing Gerald wallace today, Thunder playing the Kings and Trailblazers playing Minnesota who is 1-26 their last 27 games on the road