John Morrison 2010 NBA

[imotiv8]

Is crushers hockey a d bet

[mitchp]

Yes it is

[qwerty123]

reading reports Tyreke Evans is out today. Proceed with caution...

http://twitter.com/mr_jasonjones/status/24150538190852097

[COYLO]

who's he play for

[J.M. Disciple]

Basketball Crusher Play of the Day : LA Clippers -3 over Golden State Warriors................A

Hockey Crusher Play of the Day : San Jose -105 over Anaheim .................................D bet (its now +105 for San jose)

TPS: Minnesota +14.5 vs Spurs [A]
John MOrrison [B] Cleveland +13.5 vs Phx
SBP updated: L.A. Clippers -3.5 [C]
sBP original: Will be posted later by him. http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ml#post8277977

Alright Good Luck Everyone. I think that Sums it up today.
Crusher football: packers line has already dropped to +1.5 (I expect them to win out right )

[J.M. Disciple]

who's he play for

Hes the best player on SAC .... The A bet today... We usually ignore player filters here anyways. I personal skip A bets so it doesn't matter.

We can make some really good money today. GO Sharks!

ANyone know how often NHL for Crusher has went to C and D? I'm skipping all his A and B bets so hopefully goes to C and D quite often.

[jphil]

I already lost the b & c bets of SAN's last 3 home losses playin the nhl +500 home sys. (sys. now has 3 series losses). maybe they'll do better w/ tonight's away gm. vs. ANA. GL on that D bet.

[jphil]

Basketball Crusher Play of the Day : LA Clippers -3 over Golden State Warriors................A

Hockey Crusher Play of the Day : San Jose -105 over Anaheim .................................D bet (its now +105 for San jose)

TPS: Minnesota +14.5 vs Spurs [A]
John MOrrison [b] Cleveland +13.5 vs Phx
SBP updated: L.A. Clippers -3.5 [C]
sBP original: Will be posted later by him. http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-pl...ml#post8277977

Alright Good Luck Everyone. I think that Sums it up today.
Crusher football: packers line has already dropped to +1.5 (I expect them to win out right )

Do they start a new thread everyday on that SBP forum that ya linked us above?


GO BIRDS!

[Wallco99]

sac +10 then

or +7 with no points

You know my answer!

[jphil]

TPS

Cleve. is also a v1, B bet tonight. I use betus & they seem to be the only offshore book whose lines have been @ +475 today. If it wasn't also a v1, B bet tonight, i might be scratching my head as far as playin the CLEVE. TPS play at betus. As far as a TPS bet only is concerned, what would someone do in this case where your book was the only book that was offering lines BELOW +500? Play it @ +475(betus), or pass? Or even wait to see if the line @ some pt. hits +500 before tip off. But then again betus didn't open @ +500, so maybe that would automatically disqualify them at my book.


Also, beings i don't get JJ's e-mails as far as A-C chase is concerned, i've just been playin flat bets the last 5 gms. Should one just increase their wager on the next bet after a loss, regardless of who the next team is on the next bet, who qualifies? or just keep playin straight flat bets? Any strategic tips when playin flat bets w/ this sys. like i mentioned, when one is without access to A-C e-mails?

[Kev the Brit]

I meant no more complaining from me, not you, Kev.

No worries, Wallco. I'm looking forward to your end of season report. If you produce evidence that your system is better than Morrison's then I will adopt it, without hesitation, next year.

[Wilba]

2 Questions for the "B&C Only" Bettors:

As a "traditional" Morrison System player I bet to win 1 Unit from every series that qualifies. Therefore, over a specimen set of 100 series I set out to win 100 Units (believing that 97% of the series will win). The normal odds available to me (and most others) on each game, buying 3 points, are -182 (or 1.55). This means that I risk the following amounts at each stage of the series:

A Bet: risk 1.82 Units to win 1 Unit profit

B Bet: risk 5.13 Units to win 2.82 Units (comprising A Bet risk of 1.82 Units recovered plus series target of 1 Unit profit)

C Bet: risk 14.46 Units to win 7.95 Units (comprising recovery of A Bet risk of 1.82 Units and B Bet risk of 5.13 Units plus series target of 1 Unit profit)

Total risk per series is 21.41 Units.
The total risk could be reduced with lower odds, but I can't get lower odds.
So, using the stated odds, if 3% of the series lose, as per the agreed stats, I must expect to lose 64.23 Units. This gives me a profit of 35.77% which, over the specimen 100 series is 35.77 Units profit.

The strong advice in this discussion thread is that it would be more profitable for everyone to play only the B and C Bets.

So, here's my 2 questions:

If I bet only on the B and C games and got the same odds (-183/1.55):

1. How many units, to 2 decimal places, should I bet on the B Bet?

2. How many units, to 2 decimal places, should I bet on the C Bet?

I ask for 2 decimal places because my Units are not single figures.

Many thanks in advance to anyone who can take the time to help me out here.

Regards
Kev the Curious

firstly, love the 'kev the curious/cautious' etc that you do. very amusing.

secondly, as far as I am concerned, B/C being more profitable than A/B/C (when playing the system the traditional way, I am not talking labby here) is not advice, nor opinion, but fact. If only 715/1163 A bets win, you need odds of 1.627 decimal just to break even, which noone will ever get when buying 3 pts, hence the expected profit from each A bet you play is negative. Clearly if you need 1.627 to break even, you will make a substantial loss over time at 1.55. People doubted me when I said this at start of season when A bets were doing really well, but by now, after the early A success ceased, the results have emphatically backed up what I said at start of thread about, if you play every A this season, you will lose money. My gut would say anyone who has played every A this season would be down at least 15 units from the A's. every other year also, A's have made a loss. IMO >1000 samples is large enough to be reliable.

Anyway, to answer your question:

you are talking about risking the same 21.41 units per series, but risking the same amount in a more profitable way. So you just calculate how to get equal profit on B and C while risking a total of 21.41 units, like this:

with -183 odds,
B: risk 5.59 units to WIN 3.055 units
C: risk 15.82 units to WIN 8.645 units (8.645 = the 5.59 lost on A, plus the 3.055 you could have won on A)

total series risk = 21.41 units, win if series won = 3.055 units

with these odds, must win 7/8 series, or 87.5% of all series which go to B, to break even.

This way a loss costs you the same amount, but a win = 3 x what you would win if you played from A. Hence for this way to be equally/more profitable, you only need 1 in every 3 series to make it to B. And I assure you, over a season, A bets will never hit equal to or more than 66.67% (2 in 3 winning)

hope this helps

[JamalCrawford]

Hey JM Disciple! who is this Crusher guy? he is on FIRE! I tailed on the hawks game yesterday and the packers game today!
thanx a lot for sharing those picks with us!

[Wilba]

well thanks to krzychu78 kindly posting the current records, I can post where you are from playing every A this season:

A bets total won 35, lost 37. This equates to 35 wins at +1 unit, and 37 losses at -1.83 units (at -183 odds)

total A profit/loss = +(35*1) -(37*1.83) = -32.71 units

MORE THAN -30 UNITS LOST FROM PLAYING ALL A'S THIS SEASON!

[jphil]

BIRDS ARE DONE!! SEASON OVER!!

[Wilba]

Hi JM disciple - I think the majority of people, me included, in this thread appreciate you posting the other system plays all together, the way that you have been the last few days.

Good on you!

To anyone who does not want to know about non-JM plays, it is very easy to just skip over posts you don't wanna read..

[Wilba]

Cleve. is also a v1, B bet tonight. I use betus & they seem to be the only offshore book whose lines have been @ +475 today. If it wasn't also a v1, B bet tonight, i might be scratching my head as far as playin the CLEVE. TPS play at betus. As far as a TPS bet only is concerned, what would someone do in this case where your book was the only book that was offering lines BELOW +500? Play it @ +475(betus), or pass? Or even wait to see if the line @ some pt. hits +500 before tip off. But then again betus didn't open @ +500, so maybe that would automatically disqualify them at my book.


Also, beings i don't get JJ's e-mails as far as A-C chase is concerned, i've just been playin flat bets the last 5 gms. Should one just increase their wager on the next bet after a loss, regardless of who the next team is on the next bet, who qualifies? or just keep playin straight flat bets? Any strategic tips when playin flat bets w/ this sys. like i mentioned, when one is without access to A-C e-mails?

cleve is an 'official' jones TPS play tonight. it is a TPS A bet only.

the way the system is designed, you martingale chase a team if they lose the A bet. So your B 'to win' would cover your A loss, plus the A potential win that you missed out on. Although, because obviously any given team is rarely a double digit dog in consecutive games, sometimes you have to wait weeks, even months, before the B or C bet comes around.

Flat betting it works fine too. I have done that for nearly 3 years now for good profit

[Wilba]

There might be something to this buying 3 points business.....


I mean. really, the added expense wouldnt mean anything when you are doing labby....


Wilba..????

hey JW, nice wins yesterday huh? Hope you had fun with Sharon too!

ok.. so here goes one of my epic-ly long marathon posts. To all who are not interested, just skip over it!

so JW, when you are doing a labby, I can't be sure which way would be better. However, I can say with certainty, that when playing A/B/C, or B/C, in the long run, not buying the points will CERTAINLY cost you considerable money.

Wallco, I get where you are coming from, as for a long time I felt that the added juice of buying points was a waste of money, but I actually backtested it and the results comprehensively proved that when playing the system the traditional way, if you don't buy the points, over the long term, you will get burnt badly. And Im not talking just making less profit, Im talking turning +30 unit season into -10 unit season (by not buying the insurance), on numerous occasions in the last decade. krzychu78 did independant research which proved the same thing. FYI I will post the 2 year backtest that krzychu78 did, independantly of me, which turned up the same results (for more information and discussion on this, see pages 57-59 of this thread):

when you buy the points, you risk ~20 units a series. For consistency, if you still risk 20 units a series when not buying points, you would play each series to win 2.42 units (as at odds of -110 a 3 game series only costs you 8.26 units, and 8.26 units multiplied by a 2.42 weighting on each unit gives a total series risk of 20 units.) So...

buying 3 points: 225 series wins, 5 series losses
w/out buying points: 203 series wins, 26 series losses. so...

with points: 225 win, 5 loss = (1 unit x 225 series wins) - (20 units x 5 series loss) = 225 - 100) = +125 units
w/out points: 203 win - 26 loss = (2.42 units x 203 series wins) - (20 units x 26 series loss) = (+491.3 - 520) = -29 units

So over 2 seasons, if you bought points you were +125 units, if you didnt, you were -29 units. Thats pretty comprehensive!

Also you say that not buying points has not mattered in any series this season - this is untrue. The Lakers series about a month or so ago (won on C bet at new jersey) was a series loss if you did not buy the points, and a series win if you did.

Not at all uncommon to have stretches of 50 or so series when not buying the points only mattered once, as is the case so far this year, however these are simply statistical anomalies. you are flirting with danger by continuing to do it this way, but each to their own of course. I would not have believed it had someone told me this a couple years ago. The only reason I now know the importance, is coz I actually researched it myslef! I know for a fact that Wallco has not backtested the not buying points theory, else he would know what I know!

JW/Wallco/anyone else interested - this may be helpful for you too, maybe:

Buying 3 pts at -170 you risk 18.68 units on 3 game chase to win 1 unit. HENCE WITH 3 POINTS: winning 97/100 series means total profit of: +97 units - (3*18.68) units = +40.96 units total

Buying no points at -110 you risk 8.26 units on 3 game chase to win 1 unit. HENCE BUYING NO POINTS: winning 93/100 series mean total profit of: +93 units - (7*8.26) units = +35.18 units total.

As you can see, there only needs to be 4/100 series' which the 3 points save you for the 3 points to be worth it. In 2008/2009 alone, (when buying 3 points) there were 60 winning NBA V1 series' out of 61. Out of the 60 winning V1 series', if you did not buy the 3 points, 6 out of those 60 series' would have been losses (IE only 54/61 won). So then if you bought 3 points: +60 units - (1*18.68) units = +41.32 units on season
and if you didn't buy 3 points: +54 units - (7*8.26) units = -3.82 units on season

I did this at -170 odds cant be bothered changing but it is easy to recalculate

[stevex]

Wilba, good stuff man. That's what this site should be about helping people out with good information and you and several others have supplied a ton of it. The only thing I do disagree with you about is when doing a labby there's really no reason to buy the 3 points UNLESS your bankroll is sufficient enough. That's the key here. The numbers you supplied above are with people doing the 3-game CHASE that without buying the 3 points would be down -29 units. IF doing a labby and not buying the 3 points, there's no reason that you wouldn't be up +125 UNITS. Yes it'll take a little longer to get to +125, but you'll get there eventually with the labby AND at the same time not destroying your bankroll.

[COYLO]

if i have $500 starting bank what would my unit size be?? in labby

[Wilba]

Wilba, good stuff man. That's what this site should be about helping people out with good information and you and several others have supplied a ton of it. The only thing I do disagree with you about is when doing a labby there's really no reason to buy the 3 points UNLESS your bankroll is sufficient enough. That's the key here. The numbers you supplied above are with people doing the 3-game CHASE that without buying the 3 points would be down -29 units. IF doing a labby and not buying the 3 points, there's no reason that you wouldn't be up +125 UNITS. Yes it'll take a little longer to get to +125, but you'll get there eventually with the labby AND at the same time not destroying your bankroll.

thanks dude!

but you are not disagreeing with me at all! I said right at the start of above post that I really can't say one way or another what is better for a labby, I really have no evidence one way or another for buy/not buy 3 pts with a labby as to which one would be more profitable. Profitability of labby's are very difficult/near impossible at times to backtest, as there is no concrete rules in the way to use them. Plus you have to timestamp all the separate series to backtest this system with a lab - it would be a nightmare, Im not even gonna try!

My gut feeling would be that probably both ways (buy or not buy) would both work well with a labby. I doubt buying the 3 points would be much better in this case, if at all. But what I am quite sure about is that both ways with a lab would show decent profit anyway.

[atari5200]

the problem with these accurate numbers that I really appreciate reading from you guys is that many people get scared and hesitate to properly bet the B and C with the 3 points after losing the A. I remember countless times 2 years ago where i couldn't get myself to risk the correct amount after losing the A or the B and ended up only getting back my losses on winning the C.

my point is that the 3 points and extra juice clouded my decision making, or scared me off risking more for that series to pull a profit. i just wanted to get my loss back and move on to another.

here's to memphis beating the bobcats tomorrow for all those who did not buy the 3 points yesterday. BOL

[Wallco99]

the problem with these accurate numbers that I really appreciate reading from you guys is that many people get scared and hesitate to properly bet the B and C with the 3 points after losing the A. I remember countless times 2 years ago where i couldn't get myself to risk the correct amount after losing the A or the B and ended up only getting back my losses on winning the C.

my point is that the 3 points and extra juice clouded my decision making, or scared me off risking more for that series to pull a profit. i just wanted to get my loss back and move on to another.

here's to memphis beating the bobcats tomorrow for all those who did not buy the 3 points yesterday. BOL

That would be me, I am confident. Two more wins tonight not buying. Same record as JM with extra $ to show.

[stevex]

Got to love it folks.....

The Kings cover in the early game
Cleveland plays its usual self of blowing games in the end, BUT covers
AND last but definetly not least, the Heat end up covering in OT (They beat the Bucks, but I continue the series if they don't cover ATS w/out buying points).

Alllll at -110 odds.

OH and not to forget, SBP Updated and NBA CRUSHER cover with the Clips beating up on the Warriors AND SBP Original hitting with the Wolves...

Time for a JD and coke......

[chilidog]

Got to love it folks.....

The Kings cover in the early game
Cleveland plays its usual self of blowing games in the end, BUT covers
AND last but definetly not least, the Heat end up covering in OT (They beat the Bucks, but I continue the series if they don't cover ATS w/out buying points).

Alllll at -110 odds.

OH and not to forget, SBP Updated and NBA CRUSHER cover with the Clips beating up on the Warriors AND SBP Original hitting with the Wolves...

Time for a JD and coke......

Sounds like a plan, but I'll be hanging with the captain tonight It was definitely a good night for me.

[stevex]

Hung up with Captain last night for a bit Chili, but got to love nights like this man.

[chilidog]

Hell yah, tell me about it. I had cleveland, sacramento, miami, and clippers in the nba. Baltimore and green bay in the nfl. All wins. My only loss was in the nhl with san jose. very very good day

[JW Cash]

Got to love it folks.....

The Kings cover in the early game
Cleveland plays its usual self of blowing games in the end, BUT covers
AND last but definetly not least, the Heat end up covering in OT (They beat the Bucks, but I continue the series if they don't cover ATS w/out buying points).

Alllll at -110 odds.

OH and not to forget, SBP Updated and NBA CRUSHER cover with the Clips beating up on the Warriors AND SBP Original hitting with the Wolves...

Time for a JD and coke......

AND Solaman WINS Again with Lakers First half.....

[chilidog]

I wish that I could play solaman's system - he's definitely kicking ass. I just usually can't be around the computer to make the 2H bets when needed. oh well.

[SkivChef]

what about the phone chili?

[J.M. Disciple]

Do they start a new thread everyday on that SBP forum that ya linked us above?


GO BIRDS!

Yes new thread every day. Just save the link and right click his name and go to view all post around Noon every day or just look for me to post the plays here.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey JM Disciple! who is this Crusher guy? he is on FIRE! I tailed on the hawks game yesterday and the packers game today!
thanx a lot for sharing those picks with us!

careful with the FOotball. If he has 3 losses with a 4 game chase he may be down a few units with that football system he has.

I finially started following his hockey yesterday after he goes 39-0 and he ended up losing his C and D bets. Which were basically only my A and B. My plan is just to bet on his hockey when he does C and D because of juice.

I will follow all his A B C D bets for basketball though since he doesn't buy points, it cant be too bad. IDK who he is. Heard of him from someone else on this thread and i just started posting his plays. Bankroll finially big enough to follow some other systems, so im gradually picking up more systems.

right now im following
JM: B and C bets (bet to win 3 units)
TPS: Flat betting the double digit underdogs buying 3pts
SBP updated: He post his picks daily in a 3 game chase based on particular spreads that win long run
SBP original: same thing
Crusher Hockey: 4 game chase (only bet C and D)
Crusher Basketball: 4 game chase (bet A B C D)

*thought about following football, but its near season end. I also believe he is down units, but not sure.

These will be the plays I will post on here whenever I get a chance. I don't go indepth like wilba or offer statistical explanation to how i bet on all the systems, but im glad I can help with what i can.

Thanks to Wilba for helping me out with all of this. If it wasn't for him we would probably all still be betting on A wagers and losing money.
C

[J.M. Disciple]

No more JM bets... He has won 5 straight A bets. Wilba said they would pick up soon as they are doing now.

Anyone have Info to how the system has done if you were to continue to buy 3pts for every game of the system? I believe i asked this question before, but do not remember it being answered.

Even after it wins A wager, continue to flat bet B and C wagers? ... Ill probably do some back testing tonight since I got some time on my hands.

Def Good night for everyone tonight.

[J.M. Disciple]

JOHN MORRISON ROAD SYSTEM
FROM: November 1st through January 4th




A BETS
30 – 34 = 46.8%


B BETS
45-19 = 70.3%


C BETS
42-22 = 65.6%


TOTAL WIN / LOSS AFTER BUYING 3PTS
117-74


TOTAL WAGERS 192
117 / 192 = 60.9%


TOTAL WINS / LOSS FROM B AND C ONLY
87-41 = 67.9%


This is if you bet all 3 games of the road trip; A B and C. Even
after an A win continue to bet B and C. Do not chase just flat
bet each one.




*you only need 63% to break even at -170 odds buying 3pts.
*spread sheet shows all the wins and losses.

*I did my research based on the closing lines at:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2010-2011/team404302.html


*note could of been a few more wins / losses based on earlier spreads.



Some other Math you might find interesting:
Rounding the B and C wagers which you are flat betting to say $100 at -170 odds.


OVER 100 SERIES

Flat betting $100 to win $58.82
AT 68%
32 TIMES YOU LOSE $100 = $3200
68 TIMES YOU WIN $58.82 = $3,999.76
EQUALS PROFIT = $799.76 ONLY ABOUT 8 UNITS
OR A ROI OF 7.9% ($799.76 PROFIT / $10,000 INVESTMENT)



So for every $100 you wager you can expect a profit if you only bet B and C, flat betting, of $7.90.



Just trying to help you stick a few extra bucks in your pocket
*remember this is over a small sample size. You all are welcome to back test last years results and I am very curious to what they are.

[J.M. Disciple]

To answer the question to who ever asked about how much to wager with a $500 bankroll. The answer to that question is:

1) do not risk more than 25% of your bankroll on any series or you will be sure to bust more than likely.
2) always buy 3pts.
3) DO not bet on A wagers only B and C

Example of $500 bankroll:
$500 x .25 = $125
there for if your buying 3pts you should wager:

B: $34 to win $20
C: $91.80 to win $54
Total Risk: $125.80

Unit size = $20

So i would suggest betting to win 1 unit for now or $20 until your bankroll gets bigger. I would probably do this until you reach $750 then you could start betting to win $30 each series. Remember this is only on B and C though, so a 2 game chase not a 3 game chase.

BOL to you.