Also Wilba did you ever find a under system for the nba? I know you have one for MLB.
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If we did a 3 game chase or bet New Orleans under this year every game we would be rich! We would be like 25-1 betting unders for New orleans in a 3 game chase or 25-10 SU at -110 odds.Comment -
Alright GOod night everyone. Sorry for the multiple post and appreciate all the feed back I have gotten. For those of you who bet on GSW and lost im sorry. I hope that loss was covered with betting the under posted by crusher.
GL everyone today with the bets. There could be multiple bets today for TPS depending on what ML opens at. Keep your eyes open.Comment -
and no, 11+ dogs betting all w/ buying 3 points had nothing to do with moneylines. Just any double digit dog, later filtered to greater than 11.5 dogs pending further backtestingComment -
crusher is a 4 game chase. he picks anything he wants and it could be a side or an over/under.
i hope everyone here understands, v1 , v2 and v3 and stanley's rule once and for all.
i've been watching SBP but i don't understand what "fits" for his criteria to make system bets. I would really appreciate it if anyone who knows can explain this.Comment -
You play one series under V2.If so, if a series qualifies as both v1 and v2, do you play two betting series or just one?Comment -
does the forum not allow sticky's it would stop us noobs asking the same questions lolComment -
JMD:Where does he say that? I've never applied that "rule".I would have to buy 5 pts! In order to follow JM's rule of the highest line of the day of course.
How do you know, at the time of betting, that you are getting the highest line of the day? I can accept that you will know if you are getting a line that is not the highest of the day (because it has dropped).
Its another BS rule that he applies in hindsight to keep his stats looking good.
KevComment -
Wilba:I think you being hard on JMD. The TPS pdf does not state that the ML must open at 500 or higher. Are you sure that you are not adding your own interpretation on this? It might be a practical and sensible application but, strictly speaking, JMD did nothing wrong.It is quite possible that some people today may have made a (losing) play on GSW, thinking that they were a TPS play due to your post, but they were not a TPS play.
TPS play teams must opentheir ML at +500 or more. GSW did NOT open at +500 or greater (for ML) and was hence not a play.
To be a TPS play, must be +9 dog or greater AND +500 ML dog or greater. Both of these rules must hold true when the lines open and throughout the day. No 'book except for one (matchbook) opened GSW at +500 or more. All other books opened at +4 hundred and something.
I have the complete record for this season's TPS plays and JJ's e-mails. JJ is a pro and effectively stops work at 1500 ET weekdays and 1100 ET weekends and hols and IMHO he sends out his e-mails based on the lines at that time. Thereafter its up to us. However, I will check this out when I have time and get back to you....
Happy New Year
KevComment -
It is amazing how many times I read posts in this forum of guys talking themselves and others out of winning bets. As Kev the Brit and many others have posted several times most of these so called filters that JM touts are just bandages to cover up a ugly series loss he suffered long ago so he can "market" perfection to new customers. The most telling evidence was posted by Wilba some time back where he shows the numbers for A,B,C bets for the past ten years. Those are real. Injuries and line moves, etc are not taken into consideration when doing back testing. It’s on you to try and get the best line you can. Almost all of these lines open much higher than they close at and pretty much everyone does not get them the second they come out. Since last night’s game was a "B" bet I felt very comfortable in getting the line at 9 and buying 2pts (I only buy 2pts) that I was going to come away with a winner. Why? Because as proven by hard numbers of the past 10 years B bets win at a very high %. Last week when the GSW line had a late surge and it give some a .5pt win but many others lost. I simply looked at the series and saw that 3 games remained for them on the road. Again I felt very confident that if I started my bets on the next game that I would come away with a winner in the next 1 to 2 games. And it did! JM is not the end all for betting these games in this manor. As evidence by all the different ways people are playing and posting in here. Try not too get so caught up in his emails, filters and BS.
66 series so far and 33 have gone to at least an B bet. 50% is pretty high. Month of Nov was almost all A wins but Dec saw a big swing in A loses. What will Jan bring?Comment -
Has anyone ever figured out whether or not buying the points in JM system is actually profitable. Until this point in the season, they have only come into play a couple times, actually only once for me, (GSW and that was a push). Had I just been playing the M/L on favorites, and the -110 line on dogs, my three NBA losses would have been significantly reduced. You only lose 8 units this way instaed of 18, when losing series and buying points. It seems to me you have to win 10 extra bets, from having extra points, per year for each one of your losses just to make buying points a break even. My three losses (Phoenix, Detroit, and Denver(B) bet) have cost me 44 units, with no wins from buying points to offset any of this. Had I done the other, my losses would have been 19 units. That is a significant difference. The game results from buying points would have to come into play at least 25-30% of the time to justify doing it. Am I seeing this wrong, or does someone see a valid reason to continue, or have any knowledge of point buying being a huge success in years past?Comment -
wallco,
it's been answered many times before and the answer is yes it will come back to bit you in the ass. i know GG only buys two so i'm sure he has some back results.Comment -
i wont follow this shit chase for nothing. if u chase using ats dont buy points. just use the line given. maybe buy a 1/2 or 1 point. other wise u will gt burn big. i am tracking nba chase systems around it all waste time. u can win if u bet single games and stick to unit system. as a beginner i thought chasing was best way to win, actually its the fastest way to loss. i did chase a little, but stop completely. no chase sytem will work long term. they is a lot if good guys in this forum that has good record betting singles. stop chasing guys or u will looseComment -
JM's NBA V3 system:
01/04/2011 Oklahoma City @ Memphis - V3, B bet
01/04/2011 Toronto @ Chicago - V3, A bet
01/04/2011 Portland @ Dallas - V3, A bet
V3 record so far (finished series): 27-1
(A): 14-14
(B): 12-2
(C): 1-1Comment -
TPS play teams must open their ML at +500 or more. GSW did NOT open at +500 or greater (for ML) and was hence not a play.
To be a TPS play, must be +9 dog or greater AND +500 ML dog or greater. Both of these rules must hold true when the lines open and throughout the day. No 'book except for one (matchbook) opened GSW at +500 or more. All other books opened at +4 hundred and something.
Hey Wilba: You've got my attn. again. There were a couple of books w/ that gs gm. yesterday(glad i completely forgot to wager that gm.) that opened above .500ML, went below a few x during day, & closed above +500. On sat.(1/1) both GS & CLEVE. had steady, consistent lines throughout the day, & both won. SAC'S lines that same day were erratic, & yet i bet 'em because other book's lines were +500 at some pt., (even though my book(betus) never went to +500 at all), & i mistakingly assumed that if other lines were +500, then i would be safe. 1st lesson learned was to never again make a stupid wager unless my book only has the correct lines, & 2nd to shake off the SAC. demons from my head.
Did you get this info that you've presented about opening lines from the TPS pdf.. JJ'S thread, his e-mails, or is it something that you've always followed using your own double digit sys.(or whatever ya call it)? Because w/ just the couple of examples that i've presented, it can only seem somewhat valid.
Also, do you follow the lines so strictly during the day that if at any pt. after opening @ +500, they should fall below +500 for a bit, & then end up closing out @+500, then ya wouldn't consider it? Those perfect lines on cleve. & gs on sat. seemed right up your alley.
Det. so far is looking pretty up to par for today.
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Another tidbit of info from STANLEY 77, if anyone finds it helpful:
"If the first road trip series loses, then play the second road trip series. If there's a third road trip series which is within a month from the second road trip series, then you don't play the second road trip series unless the first road trip series loses. There are actually teams whose schedules have three road trip series within a month.
If there's a 6-game series, you should make it a 4-game progression. So there's bet A, bet B, bet C, and bet D.
I use one month from any road trip series in order to qualify as a play. For every month, I use the number of days in that month to consider it a month. If it's November, I use 30 days. If it's December, I use 31 days. If it's February, I use 28 days (if leap year, then 29 days). Let's say that a team has a 4-game road trip between November 6 and November 14. If I have to play that team, they must not have another road trip series (at least 3 games) by December 14 or before. If they do, then I would pass on that play."Comment -
you don't need a spreadsheet. that chit takes too much time to produce. all you need to do is look at the day's schedule to know the plays for the day. don't make things harder than they need to be.Comment -
We had a great discussion about buying 3 points in the past. You must buy 3pts in order for this system to be profitable. I have not seen any back tested results from buying 2pts only, so ill be sticking with 3pts. There was back testing on 3pts compared to not buying any points and if you do not buy points you will end up losing money. This year would be an exception, but once again that is short term results.
Detroit series would be wiped out due to stanelys rules.
Denver would cover the C bet there for not a loss.
Phx series is actually a loss still.
Minnesota first series loss of the season is wiped out by the filter of not playing a teams first road series of the season.
We should only have 1 loss i believe this season if we apply Stanelys rules and first road series of season filter.
*we do not use injury filter or ML filter in this thread. If the line is -7 we will get it down to -4. If you bet on the money line it has been back tested to not show as much profit because of all the juice. It is what people call a BS filter John Morrison threw in their to increase his win %, but at the same time he decreases his profit in a way.Comment -
I have a question, JW Cash.
Today we have San Antonio Spurs [A] -5.5 as a V1 play.
If you bet at the spread and loses your bet, and if it is a win if you play at the ML according to John, then what do you do?
Do you continue playing the B- and C-bets, or do you stop playing San Antonio and take the loss?Comment -
SBP orginal: Detroit +12 [A wager]
SBP Updated: okc -1 [unknown]
TPS: Detroit +16 [I bet on it early to get this spread at betus.com] [C wager]
John Morrison: Okc +2 [B wager]
Kinda funny how its same team Detroit be bet on with different spreads for different systems as well as the Thunder.Comment -
Thanks so much for having the patience to explain these things to me. Before joining this forum I had often though about just betting B and C bets and skipping the A bet, but now I know some of you guys actually do this.
Being new to sports betting I do have to learn some of the language but as I said before I do understand how "variance" affects the ups and downs of probability and the need to bet accordingly
As a newbie, it's very upsetting to me that John Morrison strongly reccomends using BetUS, and then after joining doesn't use their odds to count losses. That is extreamly deceptive to the point of being fraudulent.
His advertisement states over and over about how you don't need to know anything about sports betting, sports, or statistics...well thats me. So when I followed his system, joined BetUS, bought 3 points on a game and lost when he counted it as a win, of course I wanted to know if I was not understanding something correctly. I've have been very politely asking this question to his "support" email address over the past week.
His internet advertisement states is they have "Unlimited one-on-one first-class support". Well I can tell you that is a flat out lie, I've got no reply from them.
Anyway thanks so much again for the information. I hope everyone will be as helpful in the future. I always try and research things myself but I'm sure to have some newbie questions later.Comment -
dVb02 Where the Heck are you? This is your thread you started it to follow J M's system for 2010 Now everyone is coming out of the woodwork talking about a half dozen different systems. Please come back and take control of your thread. YOU ARE THE MAN!
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Spooky, given the Spurs as a good example tonight since they're an [A] bet for V.3. If you are doing your labby with -110 odds (which is the best way to do it), if the Spurs do win, but don't cover the spread you would just add to the line and keep going with the Spurs. Basically you're betting that ANY 3-game road team is going to cover at least 1 of there 3 games ATS at -110 odds.
I'm not here to argue with people about buying points or not buying because it really is your choice and whatever you feel the most comfortable with AND last but not least what your bankroll looks like.Comment -
jphil:Yeh, sure. He wanted clarification that V2 includes V1, which it does. V2 requires at least 2 opponents from the opposite conference so, by definition, that must include any series when all 3 are from the opposite conference. Therefore, there is only one Version applicable at any one time, which means that there is only one bet on any one game."Originally Posted by Kev the Brit
You play one series under V2".
kev: could you explain what he meant by the question, & also your answer?
Also, V3 must include V2 and V1.
There will be the odd occasion when a 4 game (or more road) series starts as V3 (or V2), which loses and switches to V2 (or V1) for the next 3 games. Its happened twice (I think) this season already.
Regards
Kev the InterpreterComment
good one! 2 pts.!
