John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wallco99]

Ok guys. i am new in nba betting. i have some issues regarding the chase system

1) i pressume that you use a fixed unitsize for bets A, B, C and D. Or do you use the doubling your stake (which has 0 EV)

2) now you are tracking wins/losses and you are 55-0 or something. However, imo this is totally irrelevant because you can be 55-0 and still have lost money. Why?
Simple, since you bet the spread if a team is an underdog and bet on ML when it is a favorite. let's pressume you lost bets A/B and bet c your team is favorite with ML@1.4 or so. This means you only gain a little bit no matter what unitsize you use. Theoretically you can lose a lot in the long term when there are relative small ML in play. The chance of a streak being broken because a team is playing an awfull team is pretty high. So how does the chase system cope with this issue? For me this is a major flaw so instead of using won/loss bets i would also look at profit in units. Additionally, sample size is small and thus, it is difficult to tell if the system is profitable at all.

The fact that all systems results seem to be based on win/losses it is not really usefull untill you put units along with it and see what the profit/loss is. You can always create a system which ends up in xx-0 win/loss does not mean it is profitable. So it is not about the amount of bets being won it should always be about the amount of units won.

I hope someone can shed some light on these issues

To answer your second question, This system has been backtested through the 2003-04 season. Every season, except one, has turned a profit. Any system you play will eventually have a bad year. The cumulative total of all seasons is well into the positive. Here are the results:

2010-11(56-0)

(A) 31-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0
Total profit : +56 units


2009-10 (88-4)

(A) 63-29
(B) 11-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total profit : +11.5 units

2008-09 (86-6) THE BAD SEASON.Three losses involving large M/L. Same could happen in JM system.

(A) 48-44
(B) 20-24
(C) 13-11
(D) 5-6 (four of these won on next bet, too risky to play).
Total loss : -51 units

2007-2008 (86-3)

(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +30 units

2006-07 (101-1)

(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +77.25 units

2005-06 (92-3)

(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +26 units

2004-05 (80-3)

(A) 56-27
(B) 10-17
(C) 7-10
(D) 7-3
Total Profit : +22.5 units

2003-04 (92-4)

(A) 48-48
(B) 30-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total Profit : +14 units


As you can see, I would not consider this a small sample. For the most part, if a system on this thread has been posted, it has been tested thoroughly, and proved to be a winner before being introduced to everyone else. I see you are new to this thread, so you are going to have to take my word on that. The folks on here are very knowledgeable, and together, we have come up with a slew of ways to make money. Some systems may be having that "bad year", but the other ones are picking them up. This would not be considered JM's best season, but it's track record has proven positive. I will not disregard entire system for one bad year, just as I won't disregard Chase 110 because of the 2008-09 season.

[Rolo1984]

tnx wallco for your fast response

I am trying to get your post clear. I use decimal and you use the american notation so i am a bit confused. So if i am correct you risk 1.1 unit to win 1 unit. How then do you come up with 231 (2.31 unit)? I thought you take the loss of A (1.1 unit) and 1 unit to it? Maybe it is the notation system but I dont get that. or do you base the amount of units to bet to generate 1 unit profit?

Additionally, why do you use an increasing betsize? do you expect the following bet to have an higher ROI? So do you expect that bet D has the biggest ROI then bet C, bet B and that bet A has the least ROI? If not (you expect the same ROi for every bet) why not take fixed unit sizes?

Just some questions to understand the thinking process

Additionally, what are the best systems around? I have tried to read the topic but i confuses a bit if you are new. Since i see many systems

[Rolo1984]

Double post

[cmdyrds]

does anyone have available morrison's real records for the best 5 or 6 years? thanks in advance.

[Wallco99]

tnx wallco for your fast response

I am trying to get your post clear. I use decimal and you use the american notation so i am a bit confused. So if i am correct you risk 1.1 unit to win 1 unit. How then do you come up with 231 (2.31 unit)? I thought you take the loss of A (1.1 unit) and 1 unit to it? Maybe it is the notation system but I dont get that. or do you base the amount of units to bet to generate 1 unit profit?

Additionally, why do you use an increasing betsize? do you expect the following bet to have an higher ROI? So do you expect that bet D has the biggest ROI then bet C, bet B and that bet A has the least ROI? If not (you expect the same ROi for every bet) why not take fixed unit sizes?

Just some questions to understand the thinking process

Additionally, what are the best systems around? I have tried to read the topic but i confuses a bit if you are new. Since i see many systems

Lose (A) = -1.1
Lose (B) = 2.1 (bet) (which is your (A) loss + 1 unit) * 1.1 (loss @ -110 odds)= 2.31
I think post #4733 is pretty clear

[Wallco99]

Lose (A) = -1.1
Lose (B) = 2.1 (bet) (which is your (A) loss + 1 unit) * 1.1 (loss @ -110 odds)= 2.31
I think post #4733 is pretty clear

The bets have to increase, to recover your losses and profit one unit. Otherwise, if (A) bets didn't win, your follow up bets would either break even or lose money. You think this is complicated, wait until you start buying points in some of these systems at (-170), then see how fast your bets jump. I like this system because we have four chances at (-110), and risking a possible 18.44 units, where a buying points system could cost you 18.68 units, and that is only a three game loss. I really can't make it any clearer than my earlier post. This is supposed to be the easy part.

[steelers7889]

Wash will no get far in the playoffs, so just bet against them and your odds will get better then

[Wallco99]

The bets have to increase, to recover your losses and profit one unit. Otherwise, if (A) bets didn't win, your follow up bets would either break even or lose money. You think this is complicated, wait until you start buying points in some of these systems at (-170), then see how fast your bets jump. I like this system because we have four chances at (-110), and risking a possible 18.44 units, where a buying points system could cost you 18.68 units, and that is only a three game loss. I really can't make it any clearer than my earlier post. This is supposed to be the easy part.

Look at mine, post # 4475, this is my favorite right now. Every system on here is liked by many, so every person will have a different response to that question. Updates on most of these systems are posted nearly every day. You have to decide which ones you like. It's a shame your point total is low, because I feel I really earned some here. 10 will do. . Good Luck

[Rolo1984]

Look at mine, post # 4475, this is my favorite right now. Every system on here is liked by many, so every person will have a different response to that question. Updates on most of these systems are posted nearly every day. You have to decide which ones you like. It's a shame your point total is low, because I feel I really earned some here. 10 will do. . Good Luck

You can have all my points. Did not even see i got any. I couldnt care less abou them TBH

Anway i was confused primarely because of your different odds system (american) I bet mostly on soccer so in Europe we mostly use the decimal system.

Anyway still, why not bet a fiexed amount (eg 18.44/4 = 4.61 unit) I understand if you do this and you have to do a C or D bet you will lose anyway. However, this could be offset because you bet a bigger amount on bets A and B. What is your view on all of this? Why am i wrong?

Edit: i am not able to give you more points it seems

[teecee]

i believe non-pros can only transfer 2 points max per day, but i'm not 100% sure on this issue.

[Wallco99]

You can have all my points. Did not even see i got any. I couldnt care less abou them TBH

Anway i was confused primarely because of your different odds system (american) I bet mostly on soccer so in Europe we mostly use the decimal system.

Anyway still, why not bet a fiexed amount (eg 18.44/4 = 4.61 unit) I understand if you do this and you have to do a C or D bet you will lose anyway. However, this could be offset because you bet a bigger amount on bets A and B. What is your view on all of this? Why am i wrong?

Edit: i am not able to give you more points it seems

Because if you lose (A) and win (B) you lose money. Simple as that.

[Rolo1984]

Because if you lose (A) and win (B) you lose money. Simple as that.

you're totally right

tnx for all your answers. you will get the points when i give them to you

[ElLoco23]

Good stat updates, thank you!

[Wallco99]

JMD, tag, you're it.

[jordanfreak]

whos going for the rookies or sophmores tonight?

[J.M. Disciple]

JMD, tag, you're it.

Thanks You guys cleared it up pretty well.

As for talking about other systems, i think its fine. All systems were explained in a previous post i wrote. Just referr them to whatever post # that was. I do not discuss too many systems on here any more. Just try to post the plays that im making every day. For example NHL v1 went 3-1 yesterday for a +1.7 profit.

I think everything is cleared up pretty well. If its lazyness that causes people to only look at this thread for plays, then so be it. We have a spread sheet already for John Morrison and everything about his system has been pretty much discussed interms of money management and not betting on A bets etc... This thread shouldn't even exist really once the spread sheet is posted and money management is discussed... I mean what else would we discuss?

Discussing other systems like SBP, TPS, chase110, solamen. I think all these systems are fine to post plays on here. There is no spread sheet for them and makes more sense to see all the plays posted together then to click on 5 different threads. I personally do not mind posting the plays every day. It allows us all to root for all the plays together.

Imagine the world cup, superbowl, nba championship, and whatever other championship games we bet on, ALL THE FANS TOGETHER!!!! would you rather watch a game that has 5 people in the audience or millions and i mean MILLIONS! AROUND THE WORLD LAYING THE SMACKTH DOWN ITH ON YOUR CANDY AZ.ZES!

HAAHAHA I DONT KNOW WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT... POSTING THE PLAYS FOR OTHER SYSTEMS ARE FINE, JUST MINIMIZE SOME OF THE DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE NO BETS TODAY.

HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE.... CHEER UP AND STOP THINKING SO NEGATIVE. READING SHOULDN'T BOTHER ANYONE THAT MUCH. YOU CAN EASILY SKIM THROUGH. i skim through most of the post on here anyways.

[DustyDiamond]

I see that JM's V1 has 3 losses, is V1 in the hole right now?

[fotzan]

To answer your second question, This system has been backtested through the 2003-04 season. Every season, except one, has turned a profit. Any system you play will eventually have a bad year. The cumulative total of all seasons is well into the positive. Here are the results:

2010-11(56-0)

(A) 31-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0
Total profit : +56 units


2009-10 (88-4)

(A) 63-29
(B) 11-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total profit : +11.5 units

2008-09 (86-6) THE BAD SEASON.Three losses involving large M/L. Same could happen in JM system.

(A) 48-44
(B) 20-24
(C) 13-11
(D) 5-6 (four of these won on next bet, too risky to play).
Total loss : -51 units

2007-2008 (86-3)

(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +30 units

2006-07 (101-1)

(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +77.25 units

2005-06 (92-3)

(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +26 units

2004-05 (80-3)

(A) 56-27
(B) 10-17
(C) 7-10
(D) 7-3
Total Profit : +22.5 units

2003-04 (92-4)

(A) 48-48
(B) 30-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total Profit : +14 units


As you can see, I would not consider this a small sample. For the most part, if a system on this thread has been posted, it has been tested thoroughly, and proved to be a winner before being introduced to everyone else. I see you are new to this thread, so you are going to have to take my word on that. The folks on here are very knowledgeable, and together, we have come up with a slew of ways to make money. Some systems may be having that "bad year", but the other ones are picking them up. This would not be considered JM's best season, but it's track record has proven positive. I will not disregard entire system for one bad year, just as I won't disregard Chase 110 because of the 2008-09 season.

Hey Walco, is there a site or blog that I could find the history of odds and spreads through the past years? thanks

[J.M. Disciple]

there are going to be people in here asking, "what are the plays for today?"

THERE ARE NO PLAYS UNTIL THE 22ND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22ND!!!!!!!!!!!22ND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22ND!!!!!!!!!

jm V1 NH1: FEB 20TH, MONT PL [b] vs CALG
JM v1 nhl: feb 19th: NJ PL [A]
jm v1 nhl : feb 19th : Phx PL [A]

*if there favorite bet ML.

ill be back on the 22nd.

[DustyDiamond]

Wallco I have a quick question, for Chase 110 do you use opening lines at covers.com or do you play whatever the line is at the time?

[J.M. Disciple]

I see that JM's V1 has 3 losses, is V1 in the hole right now?

1 loss = 18-19 units. so 3x 18 = 54 units then subtract that by how many wins there are. So probably in the hole, but the system is up overall from v2 and v3 for sure.

[J.M. Disciple]

Heres the updated spread sheet 1/2 way through the season.

+32 units so far if you start from A.

how do i get that #? simply type in sum = (h2 : h111) then hit enter.

4 losses in the system so far.

someone else feel free to figure out how much B & C bettors are up betting to win 3 units. I dont feel like doing the math right now.

[dukipl]

thanks for keeping the track J.M.D.

[Wallco99]

Wallco I have a quick question, for Chase 110 do you use opening lines at covers.com or do you play whatever the line is at the time?

Final line at Covers.com determines wins and losses for system. Only because my backtested results were based on that, so in order to keep consistency, my current plays will also use that. They are pretty close on all of them anyway. When I post plays in the morning, that line is not necessarily what line we will be using for W and L. That is the line being offered at that time, but the final line will decide game. You may win some games that are marked losses, or lose some games that are marked wins. But the accuracy of the data has been based on final line. Not to mention, I don't know how you would get opening lines on Covers.com if you miss them. Maybe you can, I don't know.

[JW Cash]

Wanna 3 Game Chase Series Record of 126-3


Check out my Hockey Thread......

And that record is just the tip of the iceberg for my NBA stuff............

[Rolo1984]

JW cash I have scrolled this topic for a bit. Do you use the labby system for chase110?

[JW Cash]

JW cash I have scrolled this topic for a bit. Do you use the labby system for chase110?

Yea...I use a slightly aggressive 2 line labby for all my systems.....


Thanks for asking..........

[jas19illini]

Thanks You guys cleared it up pretty well.

As for talking about other systems, i think its fine. All systems were explained in a previous post i wrote. Just referr them to whatever post # that was. I do not discuss too many systems on here any more. Just try to post the plays that im making every day. For example NHL v1 went 3-1 yesterday for a +1.7 profit.

I think everything is cleared up pretty well. If its lazyness that causes people to only look at this thread for plays, then so be it. We have a spread sheet already for John Morrison and everything about his system has been pretty much discussed interms of money management and not betting on A bets etc... This thread shouldn't even exist really once the spread sheet is posted and money management is discussed... I mean what else would we discuss?

Discussing other systems like SBP, TPS, chase110, solamen. I think all these systems are fine to post plays on here. There is no spread sheet for them and makes more sense to see all the plays posted together then to click on 5 different threads. I personally do not mind posting the plays every day. It allows us all to root for all the plays together.

Imagine the world cup, superbowl, nba championship, and whatever other championship games we bet on, ALL THE FANS TOGETHER!!!! would you rather watch a game that has 5 people in the audience or millions and i mean MILLIONS! AROUND THE WORLD LAYING THE SMACKTH DOWN ITH ON YOUR CANDY AZ.ZES!

HAAHAHA I DONT KNOW WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT... POSTING THE PLAYS FOR OTHER SYSTEMS ARE FINE, JUST MINIMIZE SOME OF THE DISCUSSION.

THERE ARE NO BETS TODAY.

HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE.... CHEER UP AND STOP THINKING SO NEGATIVE. READING SHOULDN'T BOTHER ANYONE THAT MUCH. YOU CAN EASILY SKIM THROUGH. i skim through most of the post on here anyways.

I agree. Personally i only use the Chase 110 plays in this thread. But its nice to see how other systems are doing in case i want to use them next season. So i appreciate you posting the plays for each system.

[Newbie1825]

Wanna 3 Game Chase Series Record of 104-2


Check out my Hockey Thread......

And that record is just the tip of the iceberg for my NBA stuff............

where is it?

[jas19illini]

where is it?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-handicapping/906571-wanna-make-some-serious-cash.html

[c-fut]

Great first half of the season. Thanks to everyone for their contributions!!!

[shermanator]

next bet starts on 22nd

[J.M. Disciple]

02/20/11
JM NHL V1:
Montreal Canadians +1.5 [B]

Picked up 2 wins yesterday on NJ and PHx, (i forgot to bet these games )

[Wallco99]

02/20/11
JM NHL V1:
Montreal Canadians +1.5 [B]

Picked up 2 wins yesterday on NJ and PHx, (i forgot to bet these games )

If you clicked on my thread you wouldn't have.

[fotzan]

What about 76ers are they gonna be play b or they are considered as a win? I just got a n e-mail by John morrison, syaing the following"Can you believe it? With the win on the 76ers last week, we are now
10-0 in our last 10 [A] bets! That's 10 consecutive betting series
in a row that we've won on just the [A] bets alone, without ever
needing to raise our stakes to the [B] level. We are currently 39-2
so far this NBA season, and what's even more amazing is that,
record-wise, this is the worst betting season we have ever had in
over 5 years! Still, we are currently sitting on top of a gigantic
winning fortune, and winning all 10 of our last 10 [A] bets is just
a tiny inkling of what else there is to come Fotios! I
fully expect us to go undefeated the rest of this NBA season
.....". So he considers it as a win