John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wilba]

hey wallco, sorry to bother you and I am not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand this: (the following is what you posted with backtest results chase 110 2006-8)

"
2007-2008 (86-3)

(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +62.5 units

2006-07 (101-1)

(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +91.25 units
"
so unless I am missing something, the absolute minimum money, (if all dogs), that a 4 game chase at -110 can cost you is 18.45 units, correct? So then the best case for 2006/7 results of 101-1 on system is +101 - 18.45 = 82.55 units (posted +91)

and for 2007/2008 results of 86-3 the best case (if no favs in losing series) is +86 - 3*(-18.45) = + 30.65 units (posted +62)

these are still great results, but am I missing something in my understanding of the system? else how could these results be true?

thanks in advance

[Wilba]

TPS today is cleveland, and I will post SBP, but Im not sure that I should as it is not the correct thread, so for future reference just go to service plays forum and search them, it's very easy

sbp original
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5*
San Antonio Spurs -3.5*

sbp updated
Toronto Raptors -3.5 (not a system play but still a play)
Indiana Pacers -2.5*

both original and updayted are up to the B bet as both had A losses yest.

[ITSNOT]

Hey guys, not to stray too off-topic, but had another quick question. I've been using BetUS, and I think everyone here can agree, that is not the right way to go. I requested a payout today and want to switch books. What do you guys use? I want something reliable. I think Bookmaker and The Greek and 5Dimes look best, but I want your guys' opinion before I pick one.

Thanks guys

Has anyone ever used sportsbook.com?

[jphil]

tps

cleve. is worst in their conf. NO PLAY.

[jas19illini]

Has anyone ever used sportsbook.com?

yes

[Wilba]

cleve. is worst in their conf. NO PLAY.

this is Jones's email, not from me but from him. For some reason he is going against his own rule coz he has selected Cleve today as a TPS play

Today's Pick for Friday, February 4, 2011,

* NBA Triple Play Pick *

Cleveland Cavaliers (A) 8:05PM EST

Don't miss out on my premium selections!

Click the link below:

[Newbie1825]

I bet them I think they will cover today

[edh1011]

i hate portland this year

[jphil]

this is Jones's email, not from me but from him. For some reason he is going against his own rule coz he has selected Cleve today as a TPS play

Today's Pick for Friday, February 4, 2011,

* NBA Triple Play Pick *

Cleveland Cavaliers (A) 8:05PM EST

Don't miss out on my premium selections!

Click the link below:

what else is new. just did as told. another jm.

[Newbie1825]

Dammit I hate c bets but at least Portland will go against the sucky CAVs I hope the spread isn't like -18

[Newbie1825]

LAC handled their business they have not let us down on any bets this year

[Newbie1825]

NO OT please! LAC dammit I think I spoke to SOON!

[Newbie1825]

F the last 4 sec of the LAC game has lasted like 10 min

[JW Cash]

Dammit I hate c bets but at least Portland will go against the sucky CAVs I hope the spread isn't like -18

Yea....you can lose TONS of money of the C Bets....


Ya got what you lost on the A Bet....ya got what you lost on the B BET

plus ya got your original profit target ....ALL on the C Bet......


Better say some extra prayers tonight...................just sayin.....

[Newbie1825]

HAHAHHAHA Cleveland Actually Covered! About dam time. Well now lets hope they go back to their losing ways with Portland

[Newbie1825]

Dam Soloman's bet with Boston hurt tonight! and sucky Portland did too! On the good side LAC covered Toronto Covered to those that had nuts so did CLEVELAND. And The Spurs are kicking ass tonight and the spread was incredible so thats going to be an easy win

[maserati]

What's sat jm plays?

[Wallco99]

firsty, thanks on behalf of everyone for posting the 2005/6 results and for sharing your system. It is appreciated.

secondly, I do not know of a site that posts ML's past that (I use covers for all that type of stuff) but I can tell you this - within a small variation, a team which is -6.5 will always have the same ML as any other team who is -6.5, and a team that is -4 will have close to the same ML as any other team that is -4. There are small variations, but as a generalization for backtesting purposes, just using the same ML's as you find for the same spread on other teams will definitely be accurate enough. Hope this helps to some extent. I am confident that if you just use the same ML's for matching point spreads that this will not affect the integrity of the backtest

Yeah, I averaged out my books lines for the past few months and used those numbers. Thanks

[Wallco99]

Chase 110
Backtested results for 2005-06 Season

Here is the data for the 2005-06 season. The data for 2006-10, can be found in post # 3916, just add these numbers to previous post for grand totals. I will post seasons further back as I finish results.

Chase 110 2005-06 Season
Season Results 92-3

(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3

Total Profit: +26 Units

Losses:
Toronto (11/2/05-11/5/05)
Chicago (12/26/05-1/2/06)
New Orleans (3/8/06-3/14/06)

Thank You very much Guys for those points. Much appreciated..

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system:
02/04/2011 Portland @ Indiana - V2, B bet- LOSS
02/04/2011 LA Clippers @ Atlanta - V1, A bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 38-3
(A): 19-22
(B): 15-7
(C): 4-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 36-2
(A): 18-20-0 (W-L-P)
(B): 16-3-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 2-1-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)

Next JM's plays:
02/05/2011 Portland @ Cleveland - V2, C bet
02/05/2011 LA Lakers @ New Orleans - V3, A bet

[fotzan]

God help us with Portlant like you did with MIlwaukee!!!!

[Jemink]

cleve. is worst in their conf. NO PLAY.

Losing LeBron really sucked for them.

[cmdyrds]

Dammit I hate c bets but at least Portland will go against the sucky CAVs I hope the spread isn't like -18

it's worse it's -6. god please let the cavs continue to suck for one more game.

[DustyDiamond]

Wallco hell of a job. Your system 3 losses in a row both STU and ATS is like Coach Thompson's NFL system. Have you tried this for NFL?

[DustyDiamond]

Wallco your using covers.com for your spreads right?

[Wallco99]

hey wallco, sorry to bother you and I am not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand this: (the following is what you posted with backtest results chase 110 2006-8)

"
2007-2008 (86-3)

(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +62.5 units

2006-07 (101-1)

(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +91.25 units
"
so unless I am missing something, the absolute minimum money, (if all dogs), that a 4 game chase at -110 can cost you is 18.45 units, correct? So then the best case for 2006/7 results of 101-1 on system is +101 - 18.45 = 82.55 units (posted +91)

and for 2007/2008 results of 86-3 the best case (if no favs in losing series) is +86 - 3*(-18.45) = + 30.65 units (posted +62)

these are still great results, but am I missing something in my understanding of the system? else how could these results be true?

thanks in advance

You are absolutely correct. I looked back at my numbers and found my errors. The wins and losses were correct, but I was running the money on four different scenarios, and some of my numbers got crossed up. in the 06-07 season, somehow my brain was telling me that 101 wins was +115 units instead of 101 units. Less the one loss (-2375), my 91 unit profit. My error for 07-08 was different. I subtracted that same (-2375) from my 86 wins instead of the number I should have subtracted (-5610). Thus, my 62 units. I am very sorry for my incosistency on these two numbers, I was tracking several scenarios for five seasons at once, and had papers and numbers everywhere, and I was trying to get results posted quickly because people were asking for them, though this is no excuse. My future testing will definitely be more accurate. Thank you very much for helping me correct my figures. I have thrown you back a few points for your assistance. The corrected data is as follows:

2010-11(52-0)

(A) 27-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0
Total profit : +52 units


2009-10 (88-4)

(A) 63-29
(B) 11-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total profit : +11.5 units

2008-09 (86-6) THE BAD SEASON.Three losses involving large M/L. Same couldhappen inJM sys.

(A) 48-44
(B) 20-24
(C) 13-11
(D) 5-6 (four of these won on next bet, too risky to play).
Total loss : -51 units

2007-2008 (86-3)

(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +30 units

2006-07 (101-1)

(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +77.25 units

2005-06 (92-3)

(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +26 units

[Wallco99]

Wallco your using covers.com for your spreads right?

That is correct, Covers.com. I did it for NFL, 7-0. Don't remember if I got in late on that or not.

[Wallco99]

Chase 110
2010-11 System to date: 52-0
System Rules can be found in post #4160

(2/4/11) Toronto M/L (C) – Win

(A) 27-25
(B) 15-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 3-0

There are no current active system plays.



** Minnesota, N.J. Nets, and Portland have lost two straight (S/U and ATS)**

[NavSchl]

Just a little off topic ... but as baseball season approaches. Will the JM systems and Chase roll over to baseball or are those completely different systems?

[fotzan]

The spread -6.5 so you have to paly it at the ml wright?
I am talking about Portland

[jmjj]

JM's NBA system:
02/04/2011 Portland @ Indiana - V2, B bet- LOSS
02/04/2011 LA Clippers @ Atlanta - V1, A bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 38-3
(A): 19-22
(B): 15-7
(C): 4-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 16-1
(A): 12-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 36-2
(A): 18-20-0 (W-L-P)
(B): 16-3-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 2-1-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)

Next JM's plays:
02/05/2011 Portland @ Cleveland - V2, C bet
02/05/2011 LA Lakers @ New Orleans - V3, A bet

hey krz or anyone for that matter? is the Lakers an official play from JM for v3.0? I was kind of wondering about that since I think they are v1.0 play vs the Celtics on the 10th no? just wanna make sure of the proper overlap is all b/c I had them down as a v3.0 but thats where sometimes it can get confusing so just wanted to be sure is all

[Kev the Brit]

JMJJ, yes, the lakers is a V3 series. If they win the series, or lose the A and B games by less than 3 pts ATS, they do not qualify for the V1 series.

[Wallco99]

Just a little off topic ... but as baseball season approaches. Will the JM systems and Chase roll over to baseball or are those completely different systems?

I was already planning on investigating something for that. However, baseball is like hockey, all lines are (+1 1/2). I am going to see if I can find something in baseball. But four game chase at very high odds can get very expensive on a loss.

[Wallco99]

I was already planning on investigating something for that. However, baseball is like hockey, all lines are (+1 1/2). I am going to see if I can find something in baseball. But four game chase at very high odds can get very expensive on a loss.

There is already a JM system in place. Very different than all the rest.

[J.M. Disciple]

JM
Portland C -3.5
LAL [A] -2


Chase110: nothing
TPS: nothing
SBP o: nothing
Sbp u: MIN +5


EL Captain
V1 New York Rangers (A) ML +121 (1 to win 1.21)
V1 New York Rangers (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1)

V1 Ottawa Senators (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05)
V1 Ottawa Senators (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)
*PL +1.5 for JM v1