Donaghy thinks Lakers in 6

[jhack704]

that is really interesting!! i like to hear he is on the lakers then! i hope he caps the finals too!

[HenPrivilege]

I wish I could get Donaghy's take on Willard, Foster and Kennedy tonight.

Although the refs haven't been as profound in the Lakers/Suns series as the Celtics/Magic series, they still are the ones who control the game.

All I know is Willard and Foster officiated the game 1 ass whoopin of the Suns and as expected, their records indicate a winning percentage for the home team.

[shari91]

I wish I could get Donaghy's take on Willard, Foster and Kennedy tonight. Although the refs haven't been as profound in the Lakers/Suns series as the Celtics/Magic series, they still are the ones who control the game. All I know is Willard and Foster officiated the game 1 ass whoopin of the Suns and as expected, their records indicate a winning percentage for the home team.

Someone's asked him about the refs for this game so if he replies - and he's really good about replying to most things - I'll post it in here. I find it so fascinating. He's in a major war with his book publisher and they're withholding funds from his book - you'd think he'd just turn tout with all of this to make some cash. But I get the sense he really just wants to let people know what's going on since he repeatedly warns people not to gamble, etc...

[jhack704]

had anyone read his book? is it worth getting? any info in there that could help pick winners for the future? i want to read it but i dont want to see any games rigged that i lost on haha

[shari91]

Henny someone posted this about the refs which leans towards LA winning:

As mentioned, for game 6 in the Boston-Orlando series the refs favored Boston by 69%, based on their combined records in the spread range for the game. Now, for tonight's game between the Suns and Lakers the pendulum has swung away from the home fave. Again,the three refs are in unison. For home faves in the 0-4.5 pt range:
Foster 6-10 ATS
Kennedy 10-13 ATS
Willard 6-8 ATS
Total: 22-31 ATS (41.5%).

I'm thinking it would be a challenge to find three refs that are on the same page. Usually, it's two 'against' one. But for last night and tonight, they're in perfect agreement. lol

[og4667]

thanks for posting this info shari.

[HenPrivilege]

Yeah I saw the ATS record for these refs in that 0-4.5 pt. range and I was

If Donaghy ever turned tout.. You might find him in a river. He knows this too. He's playing with fire if you ask me.

[dume walker]

Not that it made that much difference, but I believe he made his calls SU, not ATS. Still, 14-2 is pretty impressive. And again, I don't think the spread really came into play that much. Do we know, for instance, if he called for a Lakers win in Game 5? If so, anyone tailing him may have gotten creamed factoring in the points.

Many people are pissed off with him. I'm not. If you believe what he says, he did not try to influence any games he bet on. And I believe FBI and NBA investigations backed him up on that, otherwise he'd have done more serious jail time. What he has done is call attention to something that existed in spite of him. The shadings of meaning we're looking at here are the differences between "bias" and "fix". People on this site often talk about the "fix" being in which, when you consider all the factors you'd need to have in place to guarantee the outcome of a game, it would make it next to impossible to pull off -- at least not with the news coming out at some point. Like the Black Sox scandal. Needed to buy off practically the whole team to make that happen.

But with "bias" you are shifting the game by -- what would most people say -- another 10% or so? Which leads Donaghy to say he would never (without his insider knowledge, that is) bet on the NBA. That "bias" would make the games difficult to accurately cap. Except now people like sweetjones factor it into their decisions. And sweetjones had a great record in the NBA playoffs.

I, for one, am buying Donaghy's book when it comes out. I believe he names names and gives incredibly candid inside information. It certainly is going to affect how I might wager on NBA games in the future.

[tanner40]

I was on Phoenix but I guess chasing Lakers is probably smarter?

[shari91]

Not that it made that much difference, but I believe he made his calls SU, not ATS. Still, 14-2 is pretty impressive. And again, I don't the spread really came into play that much. Do we know, for instance, if he called for a Lakers win in Game 5? If so, anyone tailing him may have gotten creamed factoring in the points. Many people are pissed off with him. I'm not. If you believe what he says, he did not try to influence any games he bet on. And I believe FBI and NBA investigations backed him up on that, otherwise he'd have done more serious jail time. What he has done is call attention to something that existed in spite of him. The shadings of meaning we're looking at here are the differences between "bias" and "fix". People on this site often talk about the "fix" being in which, when you consider all the factors you'd need to have in place to guarantee the outcome of a game, would make it next to impossible to pull off -- at least not with the news coming out at some point. Like the Black Sox scandal. Needed to buy off practically the whole team to make that happen. But with "bias" you are shifting the game by -- what would most people say -- another 10% or so? Which leads Donaghy to say he would never (without his insider knowledge, that is) bet on the NBA. That "bias" would make the games difficult to accurately cap. Except now people like sweetjones factor it into their decisions. And sweetjones had a great record in the NBA playoffs. I, for one, am buying Donaghy's book when it comes out. I believe he names names and gives incredibly candid inside information. It certainly is going to affect how I might wager on NBA games in the future.

You can email him and buy the book directly from him since he's not getting any cash from the sale of it right now. I won't post his email address here since I may be breaking a forum rule or something but if you want it, let me know.

Edited to say it's already out. And I think it's available in paperback now too.

[wrongturn]

Wow, shari, good info, thanks. Someone posted his analysis of missing call/wrong call/blue print whatever of game 6 in another thread. Great stuff. I know by pure luck, anyone can have 14-2 record. But from a previous referee who has deep interest in gambling, this has to be highly credible.

[jhack704]

y isnt h e getting paid for it? i think he comes out tuesday right?

[1UP]

Donaghy's going tout soon.

[shari91]

y isnt h e getting paid for it? i think he comes out tuesday right?

The hardcover of the book was released in December '09 and it's being released in paperback now so maybe that's what you're thinking of?

His publisher has withheld the funds. When he plead guilty to betting on games, he was ordered to pay $212,000 to the NBA in restitution. The money from book sales is supposed to go to the US Attorneys office first who will then pay the NBA, and then whatever's left over he gets. Book publisher claims they won't have an idea of the exact profit until next month and that the government wants the payment of the exact amount of money although the publisher doesn't know how much has been made yet. And the publisher's claiming they've been threatened by associates of Tim to pay the government so he can get paid with the remainder. It's all a bit of a mess it seems.

[tanner40]

It has been out

[jhack704]

[quote=shari91;4790367]The hardcover of the book was released in December '09 and it's being released in paperback now so maybe that's what you're thinking of?

quote]

thanks so the one coming out june 1 is the same one that is already out?

[dume walker]

Henny someone posted this about the refs which leans towards LA winning:

As mentioned, for game 6 in the Boston-Orlando series the refs favored Boston by 69%, based on their combined records in the spread range for the game. Now, for tonight's game between the Suns and Lakers the pendulum has swung away from the home fave. Again,the three refs are in unison. For home faves in the 0-4.5 pt range:
Foster 6-10 ATS
Kennedy 10-13 ATS
Willard 6-8 ATS
Total: 22-31 ATS (41.5%).

I'm thinking it would be a challenge to find three refs that are on the same page. Usually, it's two 'against' one. But for last night and tonight, they're in perfect agreement. lol

Donaghy leaning Lakers. Paco leaning Suns (from his MLB thread; not an official pick yet). So who do you go with...

[jnickell100]

Guys, the book is out and i just got done reading it about a week ago. If youre even thinking about getting this book you need to get it. IT IS A GREAT FVCKIN READ, no bullshit. I am not a reader but this book is great and im going to read it again after my gf gets done reading it haha(she wanted to).

[shari91]

thanks so the one coming out june 1 is the same one that is already out?

The one coming out is only an edited version of the first since it's being released by a new publisher. It seems like it's just a way for him to finally see some money from book sales. It'll be basically the same but a few things may be left out while others are updated.

[No coincidences]

Donaghy reminds me of Canseco. Total slimeball, but he has nothing to lose by being honest because he's blackballed for life anyway. So in a sad, bizarre, sick way, it's interesting to listen to him because he's speaking the truth.

[jhack704]

i agree. i havent read a book since 5th grade but i want to check this one out

[jnickell100]

Donaghy reminds me of Canseco. Total slimeball, but he has nothing to lose by being honest because he's blackballed for life anyway. So in a sad, bizarre, sick way, it's interesting to listen to him because he's speaking the truth.

NC,I totally disagree with you man. The stuff that he is saying and the stuff in his book are absolutely true and you have to know that. These games are fixed and the outcomes are fixed and its as simple as that, you know it, i know and everyone that watches Basketball knows it too. I love hearing Donaghy talk because i want to know the truth. He wants basketball to go back to the way it used to be and thats real. I think if you read his book then you would have more of an understanding of what goes on.

EDIT: NC saw you said his stuff is true.

[bankjob]

I had the Suns the last 3 games and they covered. I woke up leaning Suns thinking this goes to 7. BUT, after reading Shari's information from TD's facebook; knowing the ref assignments do not favor the home team; knowing the NBA is looking forward to running the hype machine that is Boston vs. LA. I simply can't put good hard money on the Suns covering 4 games in a row in this series.

It's clearly obvious the impact of the refs and league agenda, especially in these finals series. And if LA is getting the key calls in this game, playing behind clutch Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson, you can expect the Lakers to walk away with a 10+ point victory here tonight.

I am going with the Lakers here and hoping the fix is in, just like last night in Boston!

Bring on Boston and LA, let the hype begin about 11:30 PM ET on NBA postgame.

Thanks for the info Shari!

[Scorpion]

From his Facebook page in response to someone's question: "Hey Ryan, Suns are playing well, but I think it will end in 6."

I'm not sure if it's because of the same theory he stated with the Celtics/Magic - if it went to game 7 there would be a chance Boston could lose and Stern wants an LA/Boston final - but I think I'd be a fool to fade this guy considering he's been pretty dead on with his calls.

If he posts more about it, I'll update this page or someone else feel free to.

Makes sense, especially since game 5 was so close
But I like the Suns in this game, LAL are overrated

[Snowball]

Shari, I don't see what you pasted on his facebook.
perhaps it's the deleted comment ?
i know he says Lakers take this series but I'm yet to see on the facebook
where he says Lakers on this game.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tim-Donaghy/190036783555

foster and kennedy are company men who will fix anything.

[dume walker]

Something very interesting is going on with the sale of this book. I went to Amazon and inadvertantly typed in "Foul Play" instead of "Personal Foul". Found Donaghy's book about 5 listings down. The cheapest new one was going for $23 and change and there were a number of listings in the $60 to $70 range. And this for a paperback that came out less than 6 months ago. When I typed in the true title "Personal Foul" I was directed to a listing with a new cover -- evidently the one from his new publisher -- and was given the option to pre-order meaning that edition isn't out yet. I wanted to get the original one because I'm interested in some of the things that -- for legal, "cover your ass" reasons -- may have been omitted by the second publisher. Seems that's what others are interested in as well, else why the high cost for the original.

Thanks, Shari, for all your info on this.

[Scorpion]

He is 14-2 in the playoffs so far. He predicted the game yesterday. His record of picking plays is by far the most persuasive argument anyone can ever make these games are influenced by the NBA league office and David Stern.

where does he post his picks?

[Snowball]

Something very interesting is going on with the sale of this book. I went to Amazon and inadvertantly typed in "Foul Play" instead of "Personal Foul". Found Donaghy's book about 5 listings down. The cheapest new one was going for $23 and change and there were a number of listings in the $60 to $70 range. And this for a paperback that came out less than 6 months ago. When I typed in the true title "Personal Foul" I was directed to a listing with a new cover -- evidently the one from his new publisher -- and was given the option to pre-order meaning that edition isn't out yet. I wanted to get the original one because I'm interested in some of the things that -- for legal, "cover your ass" reasons -- may have been omitted by the second publisher. Seems that's what others are interested in as well, else why the high cost for the original.

Thanks, Shari, for all your info on this.

dume, the higher priced is a Hardcover book. The paperback is the one that you can preorder and is significantly cheaper. I believe he mentioned 8.95 when i heard him the other night. same content.

[bankjob]

where does he post his picks?

On his Facebook. And he doesn't just come out and say "Boston -3". You have to dig through his comments, postings, and discussion boards for the information. He gives slight hints like "Orlando should dust off their golf clubs" regarding last night's game. The game before in the same series he said something to the effect "Orlando wins by SEVERAL points". He also stated that game with game 5's, the NBA just breaks even after advertising expenses, salaries, etc. However, you get a game 6, and were talking MILLIONS of dollars more!

Just have to dig through all the discussions and comments to find his true opinions on each game. Although, I have not been able verify he is on the Lakers in this particular game tonight. Just going on Shari's word here. Hopefully, we will have 100% verification he is on the Lakers before game-time

[PAULYPOKER]

From his Facebook page in response to someone's question: "Hey Ryan, Suns are playing well, but I think it will end in 6." I'm not sure if it's because of the same theory he stated with the Celtics/Magic - if it went to game 7 there would be a chance Boston could lose and Stern wants an LA/Boston final - but I think I'd be a fool to fade this guy considering he's been pretty dead on with his calls. If he posts more about it, I'll update this page or someone else feel free to.

As of right at this moment Shari,, Donaghy is full of SHIT on this one

[shari91]

Shari, I don't see what you pasted on his facebook. perhaps it's the deleted comment ? i know he says Lakers take this series but I'm yet to see on the facebook where he says Lakers on this game. http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tim-Donaghy/190036783555 foster and kennedy are company men who will fix anything.

I'll go back and tell you where he says he thinks LA in 6. Give me a sec because it'll take me a minute to look through all of this stuff again.

[Goat Milk]

NC,I totally disagree with you man. The stuff that he is saying and the stuff in his book are absolutely true and you have to know that. These games are fixed and the outcomes are fixed and its as simple as that, you know it, i know and everyone that watches Basketball knows it too. I love hearing Donaghy talk because i want to know the truth. He wants basketball to go back to the way it used to be and thats real. I think if you read his book then you would have more of an understanding of what goes on.

EDIT: NC saw you said his stuff is true.

There have only been 1-2 fixes the entire playoffs. And if you think I can't spot a fix think again.

This information in this thread is irrelevant to me. If anything, this idiot calling LA game 6 after his little "hot streak" would make me lean towards PHX. Stern isn't going to make him look like a genius. PHX is a better team and they'll win at home, no help from the refs needed.

[dume walker]

dume, the higher priced is a Hardcover book. The paperback is the one that you can preorder and is significantly cheaper. I believe he mentioned 8.95 when i heard him the other night. same content.

No, Snow, the one I paid $23.58 for is a paperback. And so, I believe, were the ones listed for $60 and over. To clear up any confusion, these are "new" copies of the original December '09 release I'm referring to. I have to believe their high cost is because people want inside info that may be redacted in the latest version from a new publisher.

[jmiezie]

Love la here.. Kobe gonna dagger that heart tonight

[jgiun1]

Face Book update: Tom just said the world is round, the NBA is rigged. WTF, I have to look into this shit, I thought the world is flat and I picked 9 in row without a sell a book blueprint........you guys are complete FB STALKERS !!!!!!!!!!!