Sj55 nba playoff picks

**axxL** · 05-09-10, 04:53 AM

Im thinking of chasing the series from now on, there's no way San Antonio win 4 straight. In fact, no team has ever advanced to next round when 0-3. Suns +the points!

**jessetopolski** · 05-09-10, 05:02 AM

take under in both

**Smogs** · 05-09-10, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by strybie

So buying an extra point or 1,5 can make some big differences ... especially when you lose by one shot or less.

I just want to help; I also lost many bets by one point in the past; that hurts more then losing by dd or more.

I bet longer then most of you guys, so I know a big loss hurts and when I am 5 or more units on a game and during that game I can pick LA +8,5 I bet half my units, so I am at least break even or win on both sides.

Point i'm making is that he had bought 4.5 points. To take the -165 he got for the moneyline and then say, 'i'm still not confident i'll win with that, so i'll take them +1.5' means you would never be confident with that bet, making it all pointless - not to mention expensive buying all those points

The problem with hedging though imo is you kill your winning percentage by being nervous and cautious. Big bets are there because we love them, so put more on them, SJ for example was 5-0 before tonight on his last 5 heavy plays, imagine if he had hedged them all, he'd have gotten nowhere.

Hedging often just kills your bankroll - there's a great post in the 'thinktank' i think about it.

Hedging is there if we don't feel confident about a bet, heavy plays should be confident, and hence no need to hedge

**rtx1125** · 05-09-10, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Point i'm making is that he had bought 4.5 points. To take the -165 he got for the moneyline and then say, 'i'm still not confident i'll win with that, so i'll take them +1.5' means you would never be confident with that bet, making it all pointless - not to mention expensive buying all those points

The problem with hedging though imo is you kill your winning percentage by being nervous and cautious. Big bets are there because we love them, so put more on them, SJ for example was 5-0 before tonight on his last 5 heavy plays, imagine if he had hedged them all, he'd have gotten nowhere.

Hedging often just kills your bankroll - there's a great post in the 'thinktank' i think about it.

Hedging is there if we don't feel confident about a bet, heavy plays should be confident, and hence no need to hedge

He already said he made a bad move so why do you have to rub it in for? Noone ever put a gun to your head and asked you to follow everything that he bets on. You make that decision yourself. There is no need to whine about it afterwards. He is here to help and he has done the best he can. If you are gonna blame him for a bad decision that YOU made then you are just a sore loser. If everyone wins every bet that they make then everyone would be rich and bookies will go out of business. There are always risks and everyone knows that. If you dont know that there are risks involved in betting then you should not be betting at all.

SJ dont let these kind of posts get to you. I followed your bets and yes i lost but i wont blame anyone because it was my decision to follow them. Continue doing what u do and i support you all the way!

to SJ!

**TakeIt** · 05-09-10, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones

I got Jazz ML -165 HEAVY today.

unfortunately the money line is now -195 (5Dimes) so do you think that most of the value has been wrung out at that price? I'm thinking about passing at that number...missed my chance to get -165

just went to -200

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Juice is for losers, there's a reason Vegas is making you lay 2-1 on the jazz. I'd take it anyways

it's a good thing i'm a loser and passed on the -200.

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 08:09 AM

I am not sure if you guys realize this but that Jazz game was yesterday, it's history and I don't even remember it. I don't want to hear about it anymore, you can't pick future winners if you keep on thinking about past losers.

**gshock1** · 05-09-10, 08:15 AM

Any leans on the O/U in the Celts/Cavs game? Thinking under

**fixedgames** · 05-09-10, 08:17 AM

im liking boston ML what do u think sweet?

**Laker_crazy** · 05-09-10, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am not sure if you guys realize this but that Jazz game was yesterday, it's history and I don't even remember it. I don't want to hear about it anymore, you can't pick future winners if you keep on thinking about past losers.

Well said

....i faced this in my thread too bro,there would be people who would just say things to make their presence felt,but the fact remains that they can't cap shit.Let the negative energy stay away and carry on the good work.I have have a pretty decent run past week making 63 units.I have posted my big play for tonight in the thread.It's a 10 unit play on celtics + 1.Good luck with your plays !

LC

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Well said

....i faced this in my thread too bro,there would be people who would just say things to make their presence felt,but the fact remains that they can't cap shit.Let the negative energy stay away and carry on the good work.I have have a pretty decent run past week making 63 units.I have posted my big play for tonight in the thread.It's a 10 unit play on celtics + 1.Good luck with your plays !

LC

63 units, that's real good work. I am up 30 units (biggest bet as of late was 5 units) last week and a half even after the bad night I had last night. Good luck with the Celtics pick, I like it.

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by fixedgames

im liking boston ML what do u think sweet?

I think it's a good play.

**Laker_crazy** · 05-09-10, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

63 units, that's real good work. I am up 30 units (biggest bet as of late was 5 units) last week and a half even after the bad night I had last night. Good luck with the Celtics pick, I like it.

Yep,the regular season was great but the playoffs started on a slow note,losing a unit here or there and then this run comes and completely washes everything aside.Target is to be 100 up in 2 weeks,need 37 more,and i am pretty sure about the 10 on boston tonight.Good luck

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

Yep,the regular season was great but the playoffs started on a slow note,losing a unit here or there and then this run comes and completely washes everything aside.Target is to be 100 up in 2 weeks,need 37 more,and i am pretty sure about the 10 on boston tonight.Good luck

Why Boston tonight? Do you expect a monster game from LeBron but everyone else to just play avg to below avg?

**Laker_crazy** · 05-09-10, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Why Boston tonight? Do you expect a monster game from LeBron but everyone else to just play avg to below avg?

I don't have vague reasons such as refrees and fixing and all that crap,i just see boston picking up the intensity,if they can't guard lebron,at least they can get pierce going on the offensive end.He has been a non factor in the series so far and i expect him to step up tonight.James is the backbone for the cavs but he isn't unstoppableTonight i see the celtics regrouping and taking care of the cavs.

**Theo42018750** · 05-09-10, 08:45 AM

Cavs win by 7-9 points easy. I think Boston is broke the way they walked off the court last game and the fans started booing them. Great fans Boston LOL!

**fixedgames** · 05-09-10, 09:05 AM

Thanks sweet

boston ML

**ed_lupeet** · 05-09-10, 09:08 AM

How many units will you play boston?

**killersweet** · 05-09-10, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am not sure if you guys realize this but that Jazz game was yesterday, it's history and I don't even remember it. I don't want to hear about it anymore, you can't pick future winners if you keep on thinking about past losers.

Right On. Let's get em today

**RoagBettor** · 05-09-10, 09:20 AM

Celtics/Cavs are a tough call. It doesn't matter if Lebron goes off again, the key will be Allen and Pierce. If they get off to hot starts they will negate Lebron. I like the under but worried about a foulfest. Also like the Spurs and the under (should finally cash) tonight.

Good luck with your plays SJ et al.

**fly fisher** · 05-09-10, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am not sure if you guys realize this but that Jazz game was yesterday, it's history and I don't even remember it. I don't want to hear about it anymore, you can't pick future winners if you keep on thinking about past losers.

I like that statement above. Lets get today.

**Justa Buck** · 05-09-10, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am not sure if you guys realize this but that Jazz game was yesterday, it's history and I don't even remember it. I don't want to hear about it anymore, you can't pick future winners if you keep on thinking about past losers.

SJ, you have been very good at capping the main the I see that you have to do is take the emotion out and bet like a machine. and don't look back.

That being said I myself haven't been good at capping. I try to use money management.

Thanks for all the help from the threads you guys give alot of insight

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Justa Buck

SJ, you have been very good at capping the main the I see that you have to do is take the emotion out and bet like a machine. and don't look back.

That being said I myself haven't been good at capping. I try to use money management.

Thanks for all the help from the threads you guys give alot of insight

Lol I just finished saying I don't even remember the Utah loss anymore and you say the main thing I have to do is not look back.

I'm always looking forward never behind. I've got over 300 plays this year, one loss is just that one loss.

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:28 AM

Celtics +1 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:29 AM

Good luck to everyone today on their plays. That's all I got for today's card.

**kobefanatic** · 05-09-10, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Celtics +1 LOCKED

with you on this one

**Flopa3** · 05-09-10, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Good luck to everyone today on their plays. That's all I got for today's card.

SJ, what do you think about the 4Q on the Cavs? they have out scored Boston by 3 or more points in the 4Q in every game they have played in 2010 and 4 of those 6 4Q the margin has been 5-19 points.

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:38 AM

Good luck to everyone today on their plays. That's all I got for today's card.

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Flopa3

SJ, what do you think about the 4Q on the Cavs? they have out scored Boston by 3 or more points in the 4Q in every game they have played in 2010 and 4 of those 6 4Q the margin has been 5-19 points.

Only quarter I bet before games is the 1st. I'm not really sure about that.

**fixedgames** · 05-09-10, 10:46 AM

BOL sj. i wish i waited a little longer

... coulda had +105 on celtics ML...

**colout** · 05-09-10, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Celtics +1 LOCKED

With u on this one.. but I miss your writeups dude!

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by colout

With u on this one.. but I miss your writeups dude!

I've just been really immersed in finding winners lately thati haven't had time. I'll try my best to give one today. For starters all three refs heavily favor the home teams. Secondly when was the last time Boston lost two straight at home in the playoffs? Line was +1 celtics last game and they got crushed. Vegas responds by giving the same exact line. I see Boston's role players coming up biggg today. I also see Antwan, Shaq and Mo playing below average. LeBron will get his.

**Flopa3** · 05-09-10, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Only quarter I bet before games is the 1st. I'm not really sure about that.

THanks SJ,

I'm taking Boston +1.5 I hope its a winner, I also took Cavs 4Q so If this play out right for me Boston will be up up good going into the 4Q and the caves will get the 4Q win while still losing the game.

GL with you play today

**Justa Buck** · 05-09-10, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Lol I just finished saying I don't even remember the Utah loss anymore and you say the main thing I have to do is not look back.

I'm always looking forward never behind. I've got over 300 plays this year, one loss is just that one loss.

Just supporting what you said to help others that read these threads

**psedler** · 05-09-10, 12:02 PM

Many cappers very strong plays today are on Bos-Cavs Under 197. I am loading up Heavy on This One! Lets All Go Get Em

**sweetjones55** · 05-09-10, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Justa Buck

Just supporting what you said to help others that read these threads

Psedler, I like the under as well, good luck on that.