Sj55 nba playoff picks

**chavinv** · 05-06-10, 03:31 AM

Can't win 'em all!

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 08:53 AM

I have a strong lean to the Hawks +9.5 today. Vegas has been getting their a55es handed to them losing 3 straight game spread and total losers to the public. Tonight the Magic is the biggest public play of all since those 3 games at 80%. I think a lot of people are giving Vegas zero credit for knowing anything about the NBA.

**kobefanatic** · 05-06-10, 08:57 AM

sweet, look at the refs in the magic game, all favoring the home team

**peterpan19** · 05-06-10, 08:57 AM

But honeslty, how can ATL defend today, the Magic killed them and I dont think that will change tonight

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

But honeslty, how can ATL defend today, the Magic killed them and I dont think that will change tonight

The Magic played a picture perfect game last game. That will not happen again. It is rare for Howard to get into zero foul trouble and very rare for Joe Johnson to play as bad as he did. Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby also played really bad. Those guys are going to step it up tonight, they don't want to get embarassed again.

I want to ask everyone on this forum this question. Why did Vegas make the Magic a -9 favorite after just finishing blowing the Hawks away? Don't you guys think that if they really thought the Magic were THATTT much better that the opening line be -10.5-12? EVERYONE on sbr thinks orlando is going to cover easyyy, this definitely feels like one of those games.

**peterpan19** · 05-06-10, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

The Magic played a picture perfect game last game. That will not happen again. It is rare for Howard to get into zero foul trouble and very rare for Joe Johnson to play as bad as he did. Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby also played really bad. Those guys are going to step it up tonight, they don't want to get embarassed again.

But will it be enough ?
Maybe th 1H is a better play, they wont to show everybody that they can hang with the Magic, and if they can they will proove that in the first half, because if they cant, ORL will put them away and never let them back bc then ATL minds are broken

**kobefanatic** · 05-06-10, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

The Magic played a picture perfect game last game. That will not happen again. It is rare for Howard to get into zero foul trouble and very rare for Joe Johnson to play as bad as he did. Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby also played really bad. Those guys are going to step it up tonight, they don't want to get embarassed again.

I want to ask everyone on this forum this question. Why did Vegas make the Magic a -9 favorite after just finishing blowing the Hawks away? Don't you guys think that if they really thought the Magic were THATTT much better that the opening line be -10.5-12? EVERYONE on sbr thinks orlando is going to cover easyyy, this definitely feels like one of those games.

maybe if they set the line too high like 10.5 or 11, it would be pretty telling that orlando will be the one to take here, but if they set it right at 9, it will cause more people to think about the zigzag theory

**lyon804** · 05-06-10, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I have a strong lean to the Hawks +9.5 today. Vegas has been getting their a55es handed to them losing 3 straight game spread and total losers to the public. Tonight the Magic is the biggest public play of all since those 3 games at 80%. I think a lot of people are giving Vegas zero credit for knowing anything about the NBA.

I agree here. After Atlanta is thrashed vegas responds by putting out essentially the same line. It looks like a free chicken dinner. It looks like a pass for me on this game. I will not fall in the trap of Orlando here, but I sure as hell will not rush to the Atlanta side here. Maybe Orl winning by 40+ is an abberation, but them being the superior team is not. Atlanta could lose again by DD easily and that is enough to take out Atlanta backers. I wish Vegas would have opened this line at -12 then I would have known the play for sure, but this -9 stuff has trap written on it.

**killersweet** · 05-06-10, 09:29 AM

I was leaning towards Atlanta, but they are terrible on the road. They tend to fold easily on the road. So better to stay away.
any leans on the total SJ?

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

I agree here. After Atlanta is thrashed vegas responds by putting out essentially the same line. It looks like a free chicken dinner. It looks like a pass for me on this game. I will not fall in the trap of Orlando here, but I sure as hell will not rush to the Atlanta side here. Maybe Orl winning by 40+ is an abberation, but them being the superior team is not. Atlanta could lose again by DD easily and that is enough to take out Atlanta backers. I wish Vegas would have opened this line at -12 then I would have known the play for sure, but this -9 stuff has trap written on it.

I think this used to be my biggest problem as a capper. I would see traps and not act on them and just stay away to be safe. I am going to take the Hawks tonight. I will wait til the last second before tip to do so.

Them opening the line at -8.5 is much more telling than them opening it at -12. Opening it at -12 would have just been an adjustment to the thrashing. This line opening just makes no sense at all. They want you to take Orlando.

**phillybadboy** · 05-06-10, 09:35 AM

good luck sweet

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:36 AM

Hawks +ANYTHING closing line LOCKED

**lyon804** · 05-06-10, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I think this used to be my biggest problem as a capper. I would see traps and not act on them and just stay away to be safe. I am going to take the Hawks tonight.

Here again I agree with you, but I only use that logic in the regular season as it is much more effective since teams are not bringing there "A" game most nites. With so much riding on these games I expect Orlando to bring there game to the party tonite. I think I will pass here and wish you best of luck whatever side you take, but I definitely understand your Atlanta reasoning. You definitely have history and presidence on your side backing Atlanta, but there are mismatches all over the court that won't change tonite. However, Atlanta should come out with a little grit and pride and Orlando might come out a little over confident/flat. Best of luck either way.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

Here again I agree with you, but I only use that logic in the regular season as it is much more effective since teams are not bringing there "A" game most nites. With so much riding on these games I expect Orlando to bring there game to the party tonite. I think I will pass here and wish you best of luck whatever side you take, but I definitely understand your Atlanta reasoning. You definitely have history and presidence on your side backing Atlanta, but there are mismatches all over the court that won't change tonite. However, Atlanta should come out with a little grit and pride and Orlando might come out a little over confident/flat. Best of luck either way.

This series reminds me of the Chicago/Cleveland series. There were mismatches ALL OVER the court and Cleveland dominated game 1. Everybody on TV was saying this seires was a joke. Chicago responds by playing a great game 2 and covering, leading in the 4th quarter and winnning game 3.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:41 AM

Everyone is just looking at the two teams and saying Magic are better and create more mismatches. The better team does not always cover, we'd all be millionaires if that was the case.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:48 AM

Spurs -3 1H HEAVY LOCKED

**Goat Milk** · 05-06-10, 09:49 AM

Series is going 6, ATL will win both at home if they don't get one on the road today.

GL today SJ, i'm leaning over- atl's production today will have to come offensively, they can't stop the magic's offense until they get back home. I like the AtL bet though, I might stay away from this game and if ATL loses I will be on them game 3 100%. The public will be on Orlando every game this series.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 09:56 AM

Hawks +6.5 -120 1st Half LOCKED

**fly fisher** · 05-06-10, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Hawks +6.5 -120 1st Half LOCKED

will get on it as soon as I get a line on my book. Thanks SJ

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Spurs -3 1H HEAVY LOCKED

Spurs are getting juiced for the 1H and up to -6.5. Get on this fast.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 10:32 AM

I got 1 unit on the Hawks 1H +6.5 tonight. My big plays are on Spurs and Jazz coming up, 5 units each.

**gshock1** · 05-06-10, 10:36 AM

Spurs already up past 6 in my book. I would have taken it at 5, but not sure about 6+.

**Goat Milk** · 05-06-10, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Spurs are getting juiced for the 1H and up to -6.5. Get on this fast.

Ya right now, which is expected. A lot of suckers are going to smash the Suns at +6.5. The line should come down to Spurs -5 at some point but your -3 first half is already good.

**fly fisher** · 05-06-10, 10:41 AM

thanks for the unit posting. helps dumb asses like me put the call in perspective.

**TakeIt** · 05-06-10, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Vegas has been getting their a55es handed to them losing 3 straight game spread and total losers to the public..

how do you know vegas lost money. it's imposssible to really tell.

**No coincidences** · 05-06-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

The Magic played a picture perfect game last game. That will not happen again. It is rare for Howard to get into zero foul trouble and very rare for Joe Johnson to play as bad as he did. Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby also played really bad. Those guys are going to step it up tonight, they don't want to get embarassed again.

I want to ask everyone on this forum this question. Why did Vegas make the Magic a -9 favorite after just finishing blowing the Hawks away? Don't you guys think that if they really thought the Magic were THATTT much better that the opening line be -10.5-12? EVERYONE on sbr thinks orlando is going to cover easyyy, this definitely feels like one of those games.

Joe struggled at the end of the MIL series as well. He's 22 for his last 65 from the field -- 2 for 14 on threes.

Wonder if something's going on there.

**Dabeergod** · 05-06-10, 12:39 PM

Sorry for this dumb question fellas, but I'm new here. How many dollars is each unit ?

**big0mar** · 05-06-10, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Dabeergod

Sorry for this dumb question fellas, but I'm new here. How many dollars is each unit ?

However many you want it to be.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by TakeIt

how do you know vegas lost money. it's imposssible to really tell.

Lol no it's not. The public majority has been winning every game and total lately. Maybe they are getting back money in other sports but NBA has killed them last 4-5 games.

**Krutoy** · 05-06-10, 01:40 PM

Thanks for the picks.
Not sure what i play today, however GL

**killersweet** · 05-06-10, 02:56 PM

SJ, any leans on the game total tonight?

**TakeIt** · 05-06-10, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Lol no it's not. The public majority has been winning every game and total lately. Maybe they are getting back money in other sports but NBA has killed them last 4-5 games.

where do you get the info that says how much money is bet on each game. i've never been able to find it. unless you know that you can't possibly know for certain that they lost money. they could have had a balanced book for all you know.

**sweetjones55** · 05-06-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by TakeIt

where do you get the info that says how much money is bet on each game. i've never been able to find it. unless you know that you can't possibly know for certain that they lost money. they could have had a balanced book for all you know.

Covers.com, sbrodds.com, sportsinsights.com all track public betting percentages. Trust me I've been doing this way longer than you, the public has been killing the books now about 8 plays in a row

**talnted** · 05-06-10, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Covers.com, sbrodds.com, sportsinsights.com all track public betting percentages. Trust me I've been doing this way longer than you, the public has been killing the books now about 8 plays in a row

he speaks the truth...

**Justa Buck** · 05-06-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Hawks +6.5 -120 1st Half LOCKED

Thanks, SJ

with you on this one 2X