Sj55 nba playoff picks

**Dexter** · 05-04-10, 07:01 AM

sweetjones - clear your inbox

**killersweet** · 05-04-10, 07:39 AM

Another great night SJ. Amazing work

**TakeIt** · 05-04-10, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am strongly considering taking LAL 1st quarter tonight. They have been so dominant in the 1st quarter so far in the playoffs. The line is dropping to -5.5 on this game so I should possibly be able to get -1.5 1st quarter. If the books leave the 1st quarter line at -2 and juice it then it's very obvious it's a strong play as they are desperately trying to get you off of it.

These are the Lakers four 1st quarter scores so far. They have a average win margin of 11 points in the 1st thusfar. Utah's worst quarter SU and point differential wise is the 1st quarter. Lakers best quarter by far all year and has been now for multiple years is the 1st quarter. They make it a point to jump out on teams at home and set the tempo. You always get a full 12 minutes from Kobe which is another good thing, he usually sits out 4-5 minutes to start the 2nd and 4th quarter.

31-16 LAL
26-18 LAL
27-13 LAL
30-23 LAL (1st game vs UTAH)

what about the first 6 minutes? would that be even better?

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by TakeIt

what about the first 6 minutes? would that be even better?

I have no idea lol. I don't know anything about betting the 1st 6 minutes.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:25 AM

I will not be taking LAL 1st quarter. The best ref in the NBA for road teams is reffing, Tony Brothers.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:31 AM

Jazz +6.5 -125 LOCKED

I will be taking the Utah Jazz tonight with a point buy. This play is heavily dictated by the fact that Tony Brothers is reffing, he is the home team nightmare. He is 49-20 (71%) ATS for Road teams. He is the #1 ref in the NBA for road teams. Scott Foster is also reffing this game hand he is the 5th best ref in the NBA for road teams at 42-30 ats road teams. LA had trouble covering against OKC in games 1 and games 2 and it is seeming like dejavu as they couldn't cover against Utah in game 1. I think LA will play a little bit more lax tonight and Utah will go all out trying to steal that home court advantage. I think LA is overlooking this team a little bit as they have always dominated them in the past.

Another big factor in me liking this play is that Utah lost last game as a 7 point favorite by 5. Vegas responds to this loss by giving out one of the smallest lines ever at home for LAL vs Utah at 5.5. I think it is very telling and it seems Vegas is giving them a serious shot to steal game 2. OKC should have stolen game 2 @ LAL but just didn't come through in the last 3 minutes of the 4th. Utah is a better coached and more experienced team and I think they will have better success late in the game. I would not be shocked to see LAL lose this game SU.

**WiseGrumpy** · 05-04-10, 08:34 AM

Thnx man but I think LA today is a HUGE LOCK

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by wisegrumpy

thnx man but i think la today is a huge lock

o boy...

**lakerboy** · 05-04-10, 08:41 AM

Good luck with Utah.

**doctor_on_call** · 05-04-10, 08:43 AM

sj55 what do you think of orl -9?

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by doctor_on_call

sj55 what do you think of orl -9?

It's a good play IMO. The best ref in the NBA for home teams, Joe Derosa is reffing.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:50 AM

Orlando 1st Half -4 -120 LOCKED
Orlando -9 LOCKED

Tomorrow Atlanta visits Orlando for game 1. Here are some of the facts. Atlanta is pure garbage on the road. Atlanta also just finished up a tough seven game series with Milwaukee, I expect them to be a bit more tired than Orlando who mopped up Charlotte real quick. Dwight Howard dominates Atlanta and he had a horrible series and will be looking for redemption in game 1 at home. I am feeling a 15 point + win in this game from Orlando. Orlando is damn good at home. Orlando was favored by 3.5 and 5.5 and won both those games easily at home. Now the oddsmakers give us an 8.5 line I think they are telling us who to take here and I have done great following these things lately. Even Milwaukee smashed Atlanta in two out of 3 at home. Orlando is primarily a 1st half team while Atlanta is a good 2nd half team. It only makes sense to take Orland 1st half here but I can't fault anyone for taking them for the full game spread as well. I may end up doing so myself also. I did have this play labeled as a BIG yesterday but I really didn't think the public would be so hot on the Magic and I don't really like rolling big with the public. I have two units on each of these plays.

Joe Derosa is reffing this game and he is the #1 ref in the NBA for home teams. He is 37-29 ATS for home teams. Orlando has covered in 8 out of the last ten games he has reffed. The only two games they didn't cover were both against LA in the finals last year. He is a nice 5-0 ATS reffing Orlando games this year.

**fatty mcgoo** · 05-04-10, 08:52 AM

SJ I got Utah at -5.5 right now, is that a go or no go

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:52 AM

I added Orlando for the game as well now.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by fatty mcgoo

SJ I got Utah at -5.5 right now, is that a go or no go

Yes just buy a point to +6.5

**doctor_on_call** · 05-04-10, 08:55 AM

thanks sj. bol.

**WiseGrumpy** · 05-04-10, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

o boy...

You are doing an amazing job and I love reading your picks, but it's possible someone will have a different opinion and will be right ...

**peterpan19** · 05-04-10, 08:59 AM

GL SJ

like that Magic pick a lot

**fatty mcgoo** · 05-04-10, 08:59 AM

thanks SJ...Lets cash thes tonight

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:02 AM

I will be taking a good look at the totals throughout the day.

**tischa** · 05-04-10, 09:03 AM

No Big oder Heavy play tonite SJ? whats your strongest play?

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by WiseGrumpy

You are doing an amazing job and I love reading your picks, but it's possible someone will have a different opinion and will be right ...

I completely agree with you.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:07 AM

I will be taking a good look at the totals and the movement throughout the day and may have a play on one of those.

**Goat Milk** · 05-04-10, 09:07 AM

hit em up today

careful with utah

**FR3SH like UgHH** · 05-04-10, 09:07 AM

sweetjones it don't scare u that everyone on ORL?

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by FR3SH like UgHH

sweetjones it don't scare u that everyone on ORL?

No, the public has won a lot in the playoffs and I personally think Orlando is the best team right now in the playoffs. They are one team I will lay chalk and ride with the public on.

**Khhhh** · 05-04-10, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

5-0 my last 5 heavy/big 5+ unit plays.
22-5-1 my last 27 plays (81%)
53-23-1 (70%) my last 72 plays
268-110-4 (60.43%) total NBA record.

Great job man. Just wanted to point out that you have a slight error in your record % calculations as you have underestimated your total record. 268-110 is about 70% not 60%. Fantastic! GL today!

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Khhhh

Great job man. Just wanted to point out that you have a slight error in your record % calculations as you have underestimated your total record. 268-110 is about 70% not 60%. Fantastic! GL today!

LMAOO 70%? I WISHHH. It is 1*68-110-4 my bad.

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 09:48 AM

I just got done calculating my SBR record posting plays since I got here like halfway through. This was my very first post when I got here.

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I'm going to be posting up my strongest NBA plays in here. Feel free to fade or tail, points are appreciated. I have a running record at another forum that I post at of
89-59-2 (60%). I've done well this year and feel like I have a good grip on the NBA and would like to help others win also. I play a good amount of quarter lines, in running halftime lines and the occasional favorite/dog moneyline. A play is official when it's in bold and says LOCKED. GL to everyone on their plays.

My current record is 168-110-4, which means my SBR record is 79-51-2 (61%). I started off like 3-10 posting here so I am pretty pleased with this record.

**trojanman** · 05-04-10, 09:58 AM

Hey Sweet....internet down all night, tv as well (AT&T f..up) so was tracking the score of Cavs/Celts under on my phone - wow......what a win - deserved after the previous bad luck with Atl......anyway wanted to post up this morning thx and enjoying tailing your unbelievable playoff run.....keep it up!

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Spurs + ANYTHING 1st HALF LOCKED

Writeup will come up for that one in the next day or two. I will be locking this one in as soon as it comes out.

Still waiting on this but jumping on Spurs +4.5 -135 HEAVY LOCKED This line is dropping so fast that it's scary.

**strybie** · 05-04-10, 10:23 AM

How many units on ORL today ? Let's win this one !!

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 10:33 AM

Orlando 1st Half -4 -120 LOCKED
Orlando -9 LOCKED
Jazz +6.5 -125 LOCKED
Spurs +4.5 -135 HEAVY LOCKED
Spurs +1.5 1st HALF LOCKED
SA/PHX Under 205.5 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 05-04-10, 10:34 AM

I got 1.5 units 1H ORL and 1.5 units game ORL. I got 2.5 units on Jazz.

**fixedgames** · 05-04-10, 10:34 AM

1Q lakers