Heavy! Bucks @ heat

**lakerboy** · 03-26-10, 10:05 AM

Let me ask you a question? You are so sure of the bucks and have all the supporting info and you buy 1point and play it at-3.5 (-130). Why would you need to buy a point if you are so sure? I mean im sure if you are convinved that the bucks will bring it tonight they should win by 5 points instead of 4 like your play dictates.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:06 AM

I want to wait a little bit and see some line movement. I may just play it anyways with RLM, maybe not heavy but still big.

**Aurelius** · 03-26-10, 10:08 AM

dont you mean heat @ bucks?

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 10:09 AM

yep i lolove this play to i might buy now caus i wanna get the hook and take it at -4 line will prob hit 5 right?

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Let me ask you a question? You are so sure of the bucks and have all the supporting info and you buy 1point and play it at-3.5 (-130). Why would you need to buy a point if you are so sure? I mean im sure if you are convinved that the bucks will bring it tonight they should win by 5 points instead of 4 like your play dictates.

I just want a point of cushion. I am up a ton this week after hitting my total of the year and heavy play last night so I can risk a little bit more on this game and buy the extra point. It worked for me on the Clippers game that almost everyone lost or pushed and I hit since I bought the hook. I know you absolutely hate buying points but it's worked for me. I just have a gut feeling on this one, I looked at the line and immediately I thought to buy a point down to -3.5 can't really explain why.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by krazey47409

yep i lolove this play to i might buy now caus i wanna get the hook and take it at -4 line will prob hit 5 right?

Do not buy it down to -4, this does absolutely nothing for you. You are trying to win the game not push and that's all that buying it down to -4 does. I only buy points on even numbers to get the 0.5 and give myself a chance to win by buying the 0.5 point. I bought the point on this one because now Bucks just have to win by two buckets instead of three. Most NBA games end with a even number loss margin.

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 10:16 AM

i buy for the push i cant afford a loss 3.5 will be to much juice i got fuk over and lost alot of bets with them half points and when i go heavy i cant afford a loss i got about 400 bills in my book right now and i m putting at least 100 into this

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:16 AM

If anyone sees any line movement anywhere let me know. Thanks in advance.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by krazey47409

i buy for the push i cant afford a loss 3.5 will be to much juice i got fuk over and lost alot of bets with them half points and when i go heavy i cant afford a loss i got about 400 bills in my book right now and i m putting at least 100 into this

Don't put $100 on any game if you only have $400. You can't be risking 25% of your bankroll on one game, this is what I would advise someone to do if they wanted to go bust. At the most you should be putting $50 if you absolutely love the play and that is pushing it big time.

**lakerboy** · 03-26-10, 10:19 AM

Did the heat rest guys last night sj? I actually like Miami here cause the bucks were due to hit a wall and i think they wont conver tonight and obviously you feel iffy on it as well buying the point etc. Miami has been embarrassed pretty bad by the bucks and its a big game.

**oiler** · 03-26-10, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Well let me first start off by saying I am a die hard heat fan born and raised in Miami. I am ALL OVER the BUCKS tonight HEAVY. THe line comes out early at -4.5 and 65% of the public is on the Bucks as they have been scorching hot lately. The line has pretty much stayed flat at -4.5, has gone to -5 at one or two sites which is a good sign as the line is moving in the direction it should be.

Why do I love the Bucks? Well number one the Bucks absolutely own the Heat. Wade went to school at Marquette and RARELY plays well when he goes back to his hometowns (chicago and milwaukee) to play. The Bucks are 3-0 SU and ATS this year vs the Heat, they really just have our number. I remember when they had a home and home series this year and I pounded the Heat after the Bucks slapped us around and one of the Bucks players proclaimed they had the Wade-Stopper. The next game still wasn't even close with a Bucks 16 point win.

The other reason I love the Bucks tonight, Heat SUCK on B2B this year with the 2nd game being on the road. The Heat are 2-8 SU in this situation this year, one of the wins was against the Nets so that doesn't even count lol and the other was the Wizards early in the year when the B2B probably didn't matter as much as they had fresh legs. Also, the Heat aren't a great road team at 17-18 and I think they will slip up on the last game of the road trip and be content going 2-1.

The Bucks were embarrased last game by Philidelphia, favored by 10 and lost by 15 @ home, and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight against a team that they KNOW how to beat. Prior to that loss the Bucks were 8-1 SU their last 9 so they are still relatively hot. Heat have won two straight road games but wins against the Nets and Bulls does not impress me at all.

Bucks -3.5 -130 PENDING HEAVY

totally agree especially after the beating they gave the bulls last night,dont think they have 2 solid games in consecutive nights in the bag go bucks

**tomcast** · 03-26-10, 10:19 AM

I like Miami

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Did the heat rest guys last night sj? I actually like Miami here cause the bucks were due to hit a wall and i think they wont conver tonight and obviously you feel iffy on it as well buying the point etc. Miami has been embarrassed pretty bad by the bucks and its a big game.

Nope I don't feel iffy on it at all, if I did I would be playing it light or laying off all together. Like I said it was just a gut feeling when I first saw the line to buy the point. I am sure that you can throw out the revenge factor out the window in this game. It means absolutely nothing. The Heat were embarrased by the Bucks and they added fuel to the fire saying they had the wade-stopper right after the game (never been said before) and they still worked the Heat two nights later. They had revenge and double revenge already and it meant nothing for Heat backers. The Heat did rest most of the starters last night in the 4th, Arroyo, Haslem, D Wright, and Chalmers all played the 4th.

I really just like the situation where you got a team who got killed in a game they had no business losing (and have one extra day of rest) and you got another team who killed some one else and is on B2B with travel.

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 10:29 AM

line just went down to -4 at bookamker my dumbasss bought the hook a minute ago

**lyon804** · 03-26-10, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Did the heat rest guys last night sj? I actually like Miami here cause the bucks were due to hit a wall and i think they wont conver tonight and obviously you feel iffy on it as well buying the point etc. Miami has been embarrassed pretty bad by the bucks and its a big game.

I am glad we are in agreement on this one. Bucks have showed a chink in there armour and it happened on there last road trip when they lost to the Clippers sould have lost to the kings but beat a listless Nuggets team and came home and Atlanta covered on them almost won, then Philly did win and now your laying 5 here?

Personally I think all Bucks backers are late to the party here but you are paying for it is overvalued at the moment. Miami will take them to the wire and just might win.

SJ-3.5 is a good# buy for you because that in actuality is what the line really should be.. see you are a smart guy afterall.

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 10:34 AM

why you expect maiami to win when they havent won a game all season on no rest except when they played another team on no rest

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

I am glad we are in agreement on this one. Bucks have showed a chink in there armour and it happened on there last road trip when they lost to the Clippers sould have lost to the kings but beat a listless Nuggets team and came home and Atlanta covered on them almost won, then Philly did win and now your laying 5 here?

Personally I think all Bucks backers are late to the party here but you are paying for it is overvalued at the moment. Miami will take them to the wire and just might win.

SJ-3.5 is a good# buy for you because that in actuality is what the line really should be.. see you are a smart guy afterall.

**kobefanatic** · 03-26-10, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by krazey47409

why you expect maiami to win when they havent won a game all season on no rest except when they played another team on no rest

dude which side are you leaning on? you seem to put heat on the best bet thread?

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

I am glad we are in agreement on this one. Bucks have showed a chink in there armour and it happened on there last road trip when they lost to the Clippers sould have lost to the kings but beat a listless Nuggets team and came home and Atlanta covered on them almost won, then Philly did win and now your laying 5 here?

Personally I think all Bucks backers are late to the party here but you are paying for it is overvalued at the moment. Miami will take them to the wire and just might win.

SJ-3.5 is a good# buy for you because that in actuality is what the line really should be.. see you are a smart guy afterall.

Yes the Bucks slipped up on the road but that was on the road. At home this team is a COMPLETELY different story, 24-10 thus far. They are 15-21 on the road so you probably won't see me going heavy on this team on the road.

I still haven't bought the point buy and the line just went down to -4 so I might just take it now at -3.5 -120

**Baller85** · 03-26-10, 10:39 AM

The Heat are well rested after a blow out yesterday, the Bucks were horrible in their last game and I think they're starting to show their true colors, Wade will shut down Salmons who will have another poor shooting performance and the Heat will win tonight.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:40 AM

By the way guys I made a mistake in my writeup. The public is split 50/50 on this game not 65% on the Bucks. I just went off the numbers off covers really quick which had a tiny sample size. So this line movement is not a case of RLM.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Baller85

The Heat are well rested after a blow out yesterday, the Bucks were horrible in their last game and I think they're starting to show their true colors, Wade will shut down Salmons who will have another poor shooting performance and the Heat will win tonight.

Salmons is a hell of a defender himself. You know what the problem with the Heat is? They have the worst point guards in the NBA bar none. Brandon Jennings will get to any spot he wants on the floor. Expect a big game from him tonight. When Jennings gets rolling at home the whole team rallies behind him and they usually come out on top. Bogut has been playing damn good basketball and is at least finally starting to live up to that #1 pick. The whole cohesiveness on this team right now is great, the chemistry is all there. Nobody cares who is scoring and their are zero egos on this team. They got a great mix of youth and experience. The Heat are a Jekyll and Hyde team on the road, the Bucks are very consistent at home.

**lyon804** · 03-26-10, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Salmons is a hell of a defender himself. You know what the problem with the Heat is? They have the worst point guards in the NBA bar none. Brandon Jennings will get to any spot he wants on the floor. Expect a big game from him tonight. When Jennings gets rolling at home the whole team rallies behind him and they usually come out on top. Bogut has been playing damn good basketball and is at least finally starting to live up to that #1 pick.

Your probably right about Jennings. I am sure he can get to any spot he wants on the floor, but he is not exactly what i would call a sharpshooter. Anyways good luck with your action tonite.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:48 AM

Todays refs are a combined 95-71 for the home team.

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 10:50 AM

only game heat cover on a b2b vs a team not on a b2b was vs the laks on dec 4 and they only loss by 1

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

Your probably right about Jennings. I am sure he can get to any spot he wants on the floor, but he is not exactly what i would call a sharpshooter. Anyways good luck with your action tonite.

He struggled badlyyy his last home game, 1-8 2 points. I think he will want to come out and redeem himself at home. He does shoot around 40% from 3's which is pretty good.

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 10:59 AM

I am considering cancelling this play right now. Vegas knows about the Heats B2B struggles and the Bucks dominance over the Heat as much as any of us yet they are moving the line in favor of Bucks backers. If I don't see the line move back in favor of the Heat I may just lay off on this one. If it goes down to Bucks -3.5, I am done with it.

I also just asked my 3 year old god-daughter who she likes tonight Heat or Bucks and she said Heat. I walked away and she tapped me again and said Heat, Heat. She's dressed in Heat colors too LOL I am very supersitious. I may even jump on the other side and ride my hometown team light.

**kobefanatic** · 03-26-10, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I am considering cancelling this play right now. Vegas knows about the Heats B2B struggles and the Bucks dominance over the Heat as much as any of us yet they are moving the line in favor of Bucks backers. If I don't see the line move back in favor of the Heat I may just lay off on this one. I also just asked my 3 year old god-daughter who she likes tonight Heat or Bucks and she said Heat. I walked away and she tapped me again and said Heat, Heat. She's dressed in Heat colors too LOL I am very supersitious.

maybe it's a sign that the game is a trap

**krazey47409** · 03-26-10, 11:05 AM

shit i hope bucks come threw or ima be fauked up i had to go big to make up for what i loss pass 2 nights or else i wouldnt be so heavy here i see heatpplaying like shit tonight and this game deff aint a trap traps are plays that the public go real big on i think line went down caus bucks just loss to sixers

**Aurelius** · 03-26-10, 11:06 AM

bogut out... ups

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by kobefanatic

maybe it's a sign that the game is a trap

Yes, very well could be. The Heat had two nights rest before last nights game and Wade, Oneal and Beasley didn't play the fourth. The flight from Chicago to Milwaukee is 45 minutes long.

**tonyp0387** · 03-26-10, 11:06 AM

Line has dropped to 3 already thinking about playing bucks

**sweetjones55** · 03-26-10, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Aurelius

bogut out... ups

Where'd you see that?

**Aurelius** · 03-26-10, 11:08 AM

he's a brother from another mother