AzNDooM NBA BETS THREAD 2010 (ROOKIE YEAR)

**SpreadSniper** · 03-15-10, 10:42 AM

wow, 12 plays.... not messin around. Have you already played ALL of these?

BOL

**MexicanStallion** · 03-15-10, 10:46 AM

Good luck with the rest of the season.

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Good luck with the rest of the season.

Going to need it and yeah this is going to be a good field day for me. Just hope I dont go 0-12 to start off to show that I would be the biggest square on this block. =(

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by SpreadSniper

wow, 12 plays.... not messin around. Have you already played ALL of these?

BOL

Yes I have but very small money similar to Krazey. Im only doing this so I can practice my capping... I will be more discipline though once I get some regularity liek Mex and will just bet the best plays which I feel the strongest. However, I think by playing alot of games and if you can hit about 60% when calling all plays, that means you can cap and I can move on to LESSON 2, which is capping the correct games at good VALUE.

**lakerboy** · 03-15-10, 11:04 AM

Good idea to play lots of games. Good luck. Dont let people convince you that playing 1 game a day is the way to go. No worse feeling than losing your only play at the end of the day thinking you had it pegged.

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good idea to play lots of games. Good luck. Dont let people convince you that playing 1 game a day is the way to go. No worse feeling than losing your only play at the end of the day thinking you had it pegged.

Thanks, still have alot to read and Ive realised after hearing your statement that yes, the DENVER looks like a big time TRAP Play and looks like they will be heading home. Still... have to play it due to my system and see if it pans out.

See, the difference is you could recognise the TRAPS with ease, I saw the line a little lower then expected but didnt expect the public to really pound it. Now after readnig the 3/15 Nuggets Thread, seriously tons of squares on this and definitely does not make me comfortable with my bet call now. But hey, its a learning experience. This should of been = NO PLAY after reading.

**SOUP** · 03-15-10, 11:19 AM

Lakers/Gstate OVER is the play of the day BOL.

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by SOUP

Lakers/Gstate OVER is the play of the day BOL.

Thanks for the Tip but that seems to be the public play. ^^

**lakerboy** · 03-15-10, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

Thanks, still have alot to read and Ive realised after hearing your statement that yes, the DENVER looks like a big time TRAP Play and looks like they will be heading home. Still... have to play it due to my system and see if it pans out.

See, the difference is you could recognise the TRAPS with ease, I saw the line a little lower then expected but didnt expect the public to really pound it. Now after readnig the 3/15 Nuggets Thread, seriously tons of squares on this and definitely does not make me comfortable with my bet call now. But hey, its a learning experience. This should of been = NO PLAY after reading.

You do realize that the books set the line low hoping Denver wins cause if they set it at 4.5 like you expected sharps would have cleaned house. Books are praying for a denver win by 4 points or more.

**SpreadSniper** · 03-15-10, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You do realize that the books set the line low hoping Denver wins cause if they set it at 4.5 like you expected sharps would have cleaned house. Books are praying for a denver win by 4 points or more.

now this is the type of thing that catches me off guard.... jeesus. talk about crazy reverse thinking.

With the amount of people playing DEN ats and su I have no freaking clue why the books would be praying for a DEN win by 4+?? They LIKE giving out money?

**suicidekings** · 03-15-10, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by SpreadSniper

now this is the type of thing that catches me off guard.... jeesus. talk about crazy reverse thinking.

With the amount of people playing DEN ats and su I have no freaking clue why the books would be praying for a DEN win by 4+?? They LIKE giving out money?

80% of the bets being on Denver isn't the same as 80% of the money being on Denver. Assuming a balanced book, that means the average bet size on Houston would be ~4 times the size of the bets on Denver. The line movement from 3.5 to 3 happened shortly after the line was released and the move to 2.5 happened around 10am eastern, shortly after the limits were raised at several books. Both indicate big players on Houston.

If the money is balanced (or close to it) and the books get their vig anyways, don't you think they'd rather take the wiseguys money than the public's money, hurting the bettors that are a more legitimate threat to win from them in the future? The public bettors are likely to give a lot of what they win back soon anyways.

**MexicanStallion** · 03-15-10, 01:59 PM

I have two plays today and against you on Denver. Just a small play on Houston here.

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

I have two plays today and against you on Denver. Just a small play on Houston here.

Whats the other play if you dont mind me asking?
Yeah, I can see why your going with Houston. That would be the sharp play but I feel the edge on my system is on DENVER. The edge isnt that significant, as I feel I have a spare 2 points EDGE and a 1.5% edge in winning this game. Its more or less of a coin toss, but the way i see it, if i play the numbers over a 100 plays, ill be right about 51.5% of the time. Best of Luck as always.

**suicidekings** · 03-15-10, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

Going to need it and yeah this is going to be a good field day for me. Just hope I dont go 0-12 to start off to show that I would be the biggest square on this block. =(

Totally agree with your approach. Capping every game allows you to build up data the fastest and get feedback on how your system is performing. It's exactly how I started betting NBA as well.

I found that making fine adjustments to my capping system was a relatively difficult process because the variability of the sport itself is going to skew your results with wins and losses that happen because of player laziness, in-game injuries, and other factors you can't really cap.

After a certain point, I found it much more useful to just cap all games and then apply external filters to the results based on market activity, line movement, opinion from sources like LB/Dexter/Shoebox/etc, and a few other filters. Too much emphasis on the stats will drive you crazy. Hope that's helpful.

Good Luck!

**AzNDooM** · 03-15-10, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Totally agree with your approach. Capping every game allows you to build up data the fastest and get feedback on how your system is performing. It's exactly how I started betting NBA as well.

I found that making fine adjustments to my capping system was a relatively difficult process because the variability of the sport itself is going to skew your results with wins and losses that happen because of player laziness, in-game injuries, and other factors you can't really cap.

After a certain point, I found it much more useful to just cap all games and then apply external filters to the results based on market activity, line movement, opinion from sources like LB/Dexter/Shoebox/etc, and a few other filters. Too much emphasis on the stats will drive you crazy. Hope that's helpful.

Good Luck!

Glad to see you have a nice system going, so when will we be seeing your listed plays ^^. I think the top cappers is a good system themselves. Im looking to making a Cappers Thread where they just list there picks and we just donate SBR Points to them. Although they have there own thread, would be easier for me to track Records.

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

I have decided to take the lessons Ive learned and try to track them live on a thread. I will be planning to play a large number of samples of plays in order to edcuate myself the skillsets such as LakerBoy/HoulihanTX/Dexter can currently do, that is cap any game regardless of how difficult the card is. I know that with others, they state its wrong to play all games as some cards arent worth playing but I feel that by doing this, it will improve my instincts and improve my ability to cap as I can see the easy weak calls/stronger calls. Thus hence I will be adding the variables of UNITS class to wager on how strong I think the play is. Hopefully, till the end of my ROOKIE SEASON i will be +ve and will be of course implementing system plays which I have built myself with many help of alot of SBR Posters. Anycase my plays for today are:

Monday March 15th, 2010
===================
1) (3x) New York Knicks +3.5
2) (3x) Detroit Pistons / Boston Celtics UNDER 195.5
3) (5x) Los Angeles Lakers / Golden State Warriors OVER 222.5
4) (1x) Detroit Pistons +9.5
5) (1x) New York Knicks / Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 210
6) (3x) New Orlean Hornets +2
7) (2x) Denver Nuggets -2.5
8) (1x) Denver Nuggets / Houston Rockets UNDER 216.5
9) (1x) Golden State Warriors +7.5
10) (1x) Utah Jazz -11
11) (1.5x) Washington Wizards / Utah Jazz UNDER 202.5
12) (1x) New Orlean Hornets / Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 201.5

RECORD as of 15/03/2010
7-5 +5.2U
Learning curve - made a big mistake by not listening to one of the best cappers (Lakerboy) who was dead on about the Houston call and was a massive Trap Play. In addiiton, also got caught out on my BOSTON play as I could of easily seen them score more points if I did the research and the cover, but thats part of the learning experience. Overall on POSITIVE Side and capping skills went 58.3% for the day. Thus moving on.

**MexicanStallion** · 03-16-10, 12:44 AM

Congrats on the winning day. Much better than me.

**talnted** · 03-16-10, 12:48 AM

Good to see that someone had a winning day, I laid my money on the wizards spread and payed the price. Close cover on the under in the wiz game as well. Good calls today.

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Congrats on the winning day. Much better than me.

I could of made more if I listened to the experience of some betters. I knew the Houston was a trap play when LB messaged me and gave me a heads up. But I already locked in my bet, so nothing I can do.

I have alot to learn amd keep your head up Mex.

**lakerboy** · 03-16-10, 01:03 AM

azn good night bro how about those rockets

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

azn good night bro how about those rockets

Why not warn me earlier.... very nice call on ROCKETS and you called it all the way. Funny, you mentioned it way earlier in the 3/15 Nuggets and wrote: "funny how everyone reckon's its a LOCK on DENV". As soon as I saw that, i re-assessed the game and missed out alot of key factors. Houston at home is tough with Ariza back in line up, Denver was looking to go home (which I overlooked). Still this game was close and came down to the buzzer, nonetheless was a great pick.

Unfortunately for your Washington Game, but see why you saw the read. Just you had to know UTAH was in good form and to only drop a back 2 back game to two of the best hottest NBA Teams and come back to a Wizards team on the road with only 1 day rest with there road trip schedule = Big loss for Wizards.

Im going to start watching ESPN interviews and see if I can learn to read there EMO's.

**shallowtanky** · 03-16-10, 04:30 AM

BOL tomorrow Azndoom

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 09:40 AM

Tuesday March 16th, 2010
====================
1) 1.5x - CLE -9.5

2) 4.0x - CLE / DET UNDER 197.5

3) 2.0x - DEN -13.5

4) 1.5x - DEN / WAS OVER 210 - MAY CHANGE DUE TO SHARP ANGLE by LB/KFANATICS

5) 1.5x - IND +2.5 - (USING SHARP ANGLE)

6) 0.5x - IND ML

7) 2.0x - CHA / IND UNDER 197.5

8) 0.5x SAC ML

9) 2.0x SAC +6

10) 5.0x - LAL / SAC OVER 205.5

11) 3.5x SAS / MIA UNDER 190

12) 1.5x SAS ML

13) 2.5x SAS +1.5

14) 3.0x ATL -5.5

15) 1.0x ATL / NJN OVER 195

16) 4.0x PHX -12.5

17) 4.0x MIN/PHX UNDER 225.5

18) 2.5x CHI/MEM UNDER 204.5

19) 2.5x MEM -10

20) 5.0x PARLAY: CLE ML / DEN ML / PHX ML / MEM ML - Had to add due to the motivation actioned by Krazey

**SpreadSniper** · 03-16-10, 10:23 AM

good start bud... i got the old kick to the teeth last night... gotta feelin tonight is gonna be a REAL GOOD night tho

bol

**Wilforth** · 03-16-10, 10:29 AM

GL bud!

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 10:52 AM

System Plays with the exceptions on a few Sharp Angles. Hopefully this system WINS.

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by SpreadSniper

good start bud... i got the old kick to the teeth last night... gotta feelin tonight is gonna be a REAL GOOD night tho

bol

I hope your right, I need to get earn some $$$.

Originally posted by Wilforth

GL bud!

Thanks, going to need it as im playing large samples to practice my hit rate. At the moment im sub par going 58.3%. Ill be happy if i hit this margin throughout the season.

**Dexter** · 03-16-10, 12:35 PM

we made money last night homie....you can tell in the first 5 minutes that la/gs was flying over. too bad all games arent that easy.

**AzNDooM** · 03-16-10, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

we made money last night homie....you can tell in the first 5 minutes that la/gs was flying over. too bad all games arent that easy.

We sure did, I gotta admit that card was pretty friendly. But today is a little bit tougher, i just hope my skills of capping start being shown cause this could go bad easily.

**TGoat** · 03-17-10, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

Tuesday March 16th, 2010
====================
1) 1.5x - CLE -9.5
2) 4.0x - CLE / DET UNDER 197.5
3) 2.0x - DEN -13.5
4) 1.5x - DEN / WAS OVER 210 - (MAY CHANGE DUE TO SHARP ANGLE by LB/KFANATICS)
5) 1.5x - IND +2.5 - (USING SHARP ANGLE)
6) 0.5x - IND ML
7) 2.0x - CHA / IND UNDER 197.5
8) 0.5x SAC ML
9) 2.0x SAC +6
10) 5.0x - LAL / SAC OVER 205.5
11) 3.5x SAS / MIA UNDER 190
12) 1.5x SAS ML
13) 2.5x SAS +1.5
14) 3.0x ATL -5.5
15) 1.0x ATL / NJN OVER 195
16) 4.0x PHX -12.5
17) 4.0x MIN/PHX UNDER 225.5
18) 2.5x CHI/MEM UNDER 204.5
19) 2.5x MEM -10

20) 5.0x PARLAY: CLE ML / DEN ML / PHX ML / MEM ML - Had to add due to the motivation actioned by Krazey

I like almost everything you're doing here. I have no problem with betting a large number of games. My philosophy is that if you have an edge--you bet. I'm guessing that the bigger your edge the more units wagered.

The only thing I don't care for are the parlays. Using SBR odds and if my math is correct, you'll have to hit this one 43% of the time just to break even. $500 nets you $216 profit. Not very appetizing to me, but maybe you'll do well with it.

I sense good things for you and your methods. In fact, I'm so confident in what you're doing, that I believe I could tail you blindly and show a long term profit.

But to put things in perspective, it really does take a full season of handicapping a particular sport to properly asses ones skill level. The beginning of the season is much different than the end, etc. Adapting to those changes is an art form.

I'll be watching.

**AzNDooM** · 03-17-10, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

I like almost everything you're doing here. I have no problem with betting a large number of games. My philosophy is that if you have an edge--you bet. I'm guessing that the bigger your edge the more units wagered.

The only thing I don't care for are the parlays. Using SBR odds and if my math is correct, you'll have to hit this one 43% of the time just to break even. $500 nets you $216 profit. Not very appetizing to me, but maybe you'll do well with it.

I sense good things for you and your methods. In fact, I'm so confident in what you're doing, that I believe I could tail you blindly and show a long term profit.

But to put things in perspective, it really does take a full season of handicapping a particular sport to properly asses ones skill level. The beginning of the season is much different than the end, etc. Adapting to those changes is an art form.

I'll be watching.

TGoat bud,

To have you appraise my work is an honour bud, a veteran yourself knows what its like to find proper systems and decide on how to wager etc... I actually copied your technique and LB in calling all the games as it demonstrates you can see edges and if you see edges, then you have to play them as in long term itll be profitable. I know you understand all that as you think like a trader so not to get into the logistics, but anything you see or can help improve my system would be greatly appreciated.

The only modification I made was the units wagered, i think this was important and have it dead on when you say when you have an edge and depending on how much of an edge it is, you put more units. Hence Ive added money management variable to help control myself from trying to chase losts etc... as you've probably noticed I've capped it at 5.0x.

To have you watching and oversee what I do will give me more confidence as I believe that two minds are better then 1, thus I hope to build a good system where we all can Profit. At the end of the day its all about the $$$.

**MexicanStallion** · 03-17-10, 09:00 AM

How did you do Tuesday?

**AzNDooM** · 03-17-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

Tuesday March 16th, 2010
====================
1) 1.5x - CLE -9.5

2) 4.0x - CLE / DET UNDER 197.5

3) 2.0x - DEN -13.5

4) 1.5x - DEN / WAS OVER 210 - MAY CHANGE DUE TO SHARP ANGLE by LB/KFANATICS

5) 1.5x - IND +2.5 - (USING SHARP ANGLE)

6) 0.5x - IND ML

7) 2.0x - CHA / IND UNDER 197.5

8) 0.5x SAC ML

9) 2.0x SAC +6

10) 5.0x - LAL / SAC OVER 205.5

11) 3.5x SAS / MIA UNDER 190

12) 1.5x SAS ML

13) 2.5x SAS +1.5

14) 3.0x ATL -5.5

15) 1.0x ATL / NJN OVER 195

16) 4.0x PHX -12.5

17) 4.0x MIN/PHX UNDER 225.5

18) 2.5x CHI/MEM UNDER 204.5

19) 2.5x MEM -10

20) 5.0x PARLAY: CLE ML / DEN ML / PHX ML / MEM ML - Had to add due to the motivation actioned by Krazey

RECORD FOR DAY: 10-9 -1.95U
PARLAY FOR DAY: 1-0 +2.1U

Hope to have a better day tommorrow.

**TGoat** · 03-17-10, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

TGoat bud,

Hence Ive added money management variable to help control myself from trying to chase losts etc... as you've probably noticed I've capped it at 5.0x.

Just a couple of observations:

I know you're a math guy, so this question is probably redundant, but are you tracking the individual unit plays? In other words, are you keeping a tally of your 1x, 2x 3x, unit plays, etc.? I'm guessing most handicappers don't do this, but it can be quite revealing.

Someone like LakerBoy can successfully do a 1-50 unit spread, but for us mere mortals that can be a daunting challenge. I tried a 1-8 spread for a while and failed miserably although the 6x and above plays did well and showed more profit than anything else. I'm wondering if 1-3 would be more profitable or just as profitable, or conversely, show a smaller loss than a 1-5 spread, and with less risk. How hard would it be for you to check both methods?

Another thing I used to do was to check all of my plays just betting one unit on each one as well as my variable unit designations.

I'll tell you what though, it's a lot of work keeping tabs on all these different things, and you can get burned out real easy. That's what happened to me.

I guess the main point I'm trying to make is that until guys like you (and me) have a long term proven track record, using a smaller unit spread might make more long run sense. I have no way of quantifying that idea without having a large sample base to draw from, so it's just an intuitive guess from the time I've spent experimenting with a lot of different methods.