My Moneyline Thread

TGHMak · 03-06-10, 01:01 AM

The Bobcats has been killing the Lakers for 2 years now

PAYTON20 · 03-06-10, 01:16 AM

killin these ML parlays!!

1) BET ID=310419901 Parlay (5 Teams)03/05/10 19:31 ETbet 50.00 to win 100.30 (paid 150.3) Result: Wager WonHornets(NewOrleans) 91
Spurs(SanAntonio) 102 03/05/10(21:50 ET)
Spurs(SanAntonio) -380 Kings(Sacramento) 100
Mavericks(Dallas) 108 03/05/10(20:40 ET)
Mavericks(Dallas) -400 Magic(Orlando) 97
Nets(NewJersey) 87 03/05/10(20:10 ET)
Magic(Orlando) -750 Pacers(Indiana) 114
Nuggets(Denver) 122 03/05/10(21:10 ET)
Nuggets(Denver) -725 Thunder(OklahomaCity) 104
Clippers(LA) 87 03/05/10(22:40 ET)
Thunder(OklahomaCity) -210
2) BET ID=310397463 Parlay (3 Teams)03/05/10 16:56 ETbet 450.65 to win 300.00 (paid 750.65) Result: Wager WonHornets(NewOrleans) 91
Spurs(SanAntonio) 102 03/05/10(21:50 ET)
Spurs(SanAntonio) -380 Magic(Orlando) 97
Nets(NewJersey) 87 03/05/10(20:10 ET)
Magic(Orlando) -700 Pacers(Indiana) 114
Nuggets(Denver) 122 03/05/10(21:10 ET)
Nuggets(Denver) -650

cashil · 03-06-10, 01:45 AM

damn dude thats some ish right there...

PAYTON20 · 03-06-10, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I think OKC moneyline has value but no more moneylines for me tonight. Lakers ruined everything.

Hey LB... I thought I read a post of yours earlier in the day that said you didn't bet teams that played OT games the night before? You broke your own rules with the Lake show! Stick to your plan my man your instincts have been right on

TGoat · 03-06-10, 08:00 AM

Here's another thing to consider when betting money lines. In the majority of situations, the book only makes money (assuming balanced action) when the dog wins.

Say a certain game (or fight) is +600 and -1000. (That spread right there should tell you something.) Now assume player A bets $1000 at +600 to win $6000, and player B bets $10,000 to win $1000 at -1000.

If the favorite wins Player A pays player B. But if the dog wins the book collects $10,000 and pays out $6000. Nice racket, huh?

Remeber the Tyson Buster Douglas fight? That fight opened at 27-1 and closed at 42-1. Here's a quote from Jimmy Vaccaro who ran the Mirage sports book at the time:

VACCARO: "I figured if there's a fight there has to be a number on it. I opened the Buster Douglas/Tyson fight at 27-to-1 and people jumped on Tyson. The first bet I took was for $81,000 to win $3,000. I moved it to 32-to-1 and the next guy bet something like $93,000 to win $3,000. And since we were the only place offering odds, everybody had to come to the Mirage if they wanted to bet."

How crazy do you have to be to bet $93,000 to win $3000? I mean you must have an ego the size of North America.

He doesn't say what the spread was, but I'm sure it was very wide. You can read the rest of the article about that fight and the Douglas/Hollyfield fight that followed it here.

Tyson/Douglas Fight

DeluxeLiner · 03-06-10, 08:29 AM

great post Tgoat...a really good read.

lakerboy · 03-07-10, 01:54 PM

Play # 7 Lakers ml+110 (5x)

lakerboy · 03-07-10, 02:59 PM

Play# 8 Pistons ml+105 (1x)

Play # 9 Blazers ml +235 (1x)

bolekblues · 03-07-10, 05:44 PM

Lakers didnt play like the NBA champs.. nor like the team that is about to lose three in a row and playing in orlando that they beat in the finals.. Actually i am suprised how the magic have not blown them out because they've been outplayed badle the whole game!! and that pathetic gasol defense on pick'n'rolls with clumsy flagrant on howard... and odom fouling lewis on a made three... and howard didnt even have a good game... Maybe im too pissed right now and analysing things right after the game cause i lost a huge bet on LA ML but I really believed they would play like the champs and the team that lost two games in a bad style..... What a downheartening loss :/:/

PAYTON20 · 03-07-10, 07:36 PM

Love the Blazers Money Line play LB- major props if it hits. Here's a parlay I just made:

1) BET ID=310642532 Parlay (3 Teams) 03/07/10 19:01 ET bet 103.87 to win 250.00

Result: Pending

Blazers(Portland) +7

Thunder(OklahomaCity) -165

Gonzaga -900

PAYTON20 · 03-07-10, 07:38 PM

If you really like the Blazers ML, you can parlay it to try to hit on a big payout. Gonzaga ML -900 should be gold... Possibly OKC ML...

krazey47409 · 03-07-10, 07:48 PM

i dun like it i think denver holds it down tonight i got them on a teaser carmenllo billups nene or we the fauk his name is who needs martin and lawson but its worth a shot portland always dangerous they could pull it off

pyro · 03-07-10, 08:37 PM

I'm taking OKC ML again tonight, good luck guys.

Pensinger1 · 03-07-10, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by TGoat

Here's another thing to consider when betting money lines. In the majority of situations, the book only makes money (assuming balanced action) when the dog wins. Say a certain game (or fight) is +600 and -1000. (That spread right there should tell you something.) Now assume player A bets $1000 at +600 to win $6000, and player B bets $10,000 to win $1000 at -1000. If the favorite wins Player A pays player B. But if the dog wins the book collects $10,000 and pays out $6000. Nice racket, huh? Remeber the Tyson Buster Douglas fight? That fight opened at 27-1 and closed at 42-1. Here's a quote from Jimmy Vaccaro who ran the Mirage sports book at the time: VACCARO: "I figured if there's a fight there has to be a number on it. I opened the Buster Douglas/Tyson fight at 27-to-1 and people jumped on Tyson. The first bet I took was for $81,000 to win $3,000. I moved it to 32-to-1 and the next guy bet something like $93,000 to win $3,000. And since we were the only place offering odds, everybody had to come to the Mirage if they wanted to bet." How crazy do you have to be to bet $93,000 to win $3000? I mean you must have an ego the size of North America. He doesn't say what the spread was, but I'm sure it was very wide. You can read the rest of the article about that fight and the Douglas/Hollyfield fight that followed it here. Tyson/Douglas Fight

I'm not sure what point you were trying to make with this post (maybe that betting dogs on the ML is taking the books side?- which most think is a favorable spot to be in), but this information is not very accurate. Books can get killed on the ML of any particular sporting event, but still come out on top... why? Teasers, Parlays, Over/Unders, Sides, Player Props, etc...

Also, balanced action doesn't exist and the numbers you provided in your example with Player A and Player B are completely arbitrary and prove nothing. In your example, if there was a ton of action on the dog ATS, the books net a loss for that event, not a massive gain as you eluded to. Of course, it is the books "ideal situation" to get balanced action (which is part of the reason lines move), but in all reality, it is impossible to obtain. The books ALWAYS have a side in any betting event and of course, in the long run, they come out on top. Don't think that the books always want dogs to cover and/or win SU, this is certainly not the case.

Having said that, I'm enjoying the thread- keep it up.

TGoat · 03-08-10, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by Pensinger1

I'm not sure what point you were trying to make with this post...

The books ALWAYS have a side in any betting event and of course, in the long run, they come out on top. Don't think that the books always want dogs to cover and/or win SU, this is certainly not the case.

Also, balanced action doesn't exist and the numbers you provided in your example with Player A and Player B are completely arbitrary and prove nothing.

I'm not trying to prove anything, dude. Of course it's an arbitrary example. Aren't all examples arbitrary?

My "point" is this: In any lopsided money line situation, such as +600, -1000 there will usually, but not always, be a lot more money bet on the favorite than the dog. Such was the case in the Douglas/Tyson fight, (an excellent example of the situation and why I mentioned it. Did you click on the link and read the article?), and it's also the case in many other situations including basketball, football, etc.

So, if $6,000 is bet at +600, and $60,000 is bet at -1000, not an altogether unreasonable situation (and yes completely arbitrary) seeing as how a lot more money is bet on favorites than dogs, then the book only makes a good score if the dog wins. If the favorite wins it's a push.

Now of course, if an equal amount of money is bet on the dog and the favorite it's not true--but this is rarely the case...in lopsided moneyline situations.

So the whole "point" is that "in general" in order for the books to come out well on lopsided money line events they "need" the dogs to cover or win outright.

If a book gets exactly balanced action on a -110 pick'em situation they make money no matter which side wins. In fact, they can make money without balanced action.

Say $20,000 is bet at -7, -110 and $19,000 is bet at +7, -110.

If the favorite wins, the book makes $900. If the dog wins the book makes $3000. (Or vice-versa)

And one of the best situations of all is when the money is within 10%. Then they can get almost 20-1 with very small risk.

Same example as above only this time the money is:

$20,000 is bet at -7, -110 and $18,000 is bet at +7, -110.

Now if the favorite wins they lose $200, but if the dog wins they win $4000 (or vice-versa) That's 20-1.

PAYTON20 · 03-08-10, 07:03 PM

GONZAGA ML. Check LB's NBA thread for more discussion on this game

PAYTON20 · 03-08-10, 07:35 PM

Hey LB, what do you think about the Grizzlies ML??