Sweetjones55 NBA Picks

**landers781** · 01-28-10, 11:00 PM

good call on the magic over. I didnt play that game, i did take the knicks. I read the game wrong i guess. I am taking a few days off. Good luck man

**darkenergy** · 01-28-10, 11:03 PM

Hey congrats on Magic and OVER SJ

**sweetjones55** · 01-28-10, 11:52 PM

I think the Suns horrible TNT streak continues (0 for 17 last 17), Dallas is scoring at will. Mavericks are 11-0 when leading at halftime on the road. Suns are 6-13 when trailing at half.

Dallas +2.5 2H LOCKED

**S.K.M.** · 01-29-10, 12:31 AM

It seems everyone has been struggling around here lately it will turn around. I came out ahead last night for only the second time in the last 6 days. Thanks for the write-ups. The more information we have the better off we are.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by S.K.M.

It seems everyone has been struggling around here lately it will turn around. I came out ahead last night for only the second time in the last 6 days. Thanks for the write-ups. The more information we have the better off we are.

No problem SKM.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 01:58 AM

5-13 is my current record since posting on here. Got a ways to go get above .500 by sunday. 94-72-2 is my current total NBA running record.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 01:40 PM

I am leaning Heat for the game -2 today and -0.5 1st quarter today. The Heat are really inconsistent but have faired well vs weak competition this season. Line opened up at -1 and with public pounding it went up to -2 so line movement isn't scaring me off my team. . Heat average 25.9 in the 1st quarter to Detroits measley 22.5. Heat are 22-21-1 SU in the 1st and Detroit is 16-25-2. The Heat are 4-0 SU and ATS last 4 1st quarters and are averaging a whopping 33 points. Pistons are 0-5-1 last 6 SU and 1-8-1 last 9 SU in the 1st quarter.

The Heat are 11-6 SU when playing a team with a losing record. Pistons are 7-13 vs teams with a winning record. The Heat haven't had many 3 game losing streaks. Pistons are 4-17 SU their last 21 games. Heat are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs Detroit and ahve covering 14 of the last 17 meetings. Wade averaged 33 points and twelve assists against the Pistons last season.

Still need to look into the full game a bit but the 1st quarter is a go. I'd be a little more convinced to ride the Heat for the full game if the line moved up a bit.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 01:41 PM

Heat 1st Quarter -0.5 LOCKED
Heat -1.5 -115 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 01:53 PM

I am also leaning Celtics tonight. They are a better team than Atlanta and I just can't see the Celtics getting swept by the Hawks and beaten 3 straight times by anyone in the same month. God knows when the last time the Hawks swept the C's. The Celtics have acutally done great shooting the ball against the Hawks this year averaging 48.5 but they have been outrebounded in every game and turned the ball over more. I think with Garnett back he will definitely help with the rebounding. I think my favorite part about the play is that their is a great chance if Boston loses that I can still get the cover at +4.5 -120. I can definitely see this game going down to the last shot.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 02:01 PM

The Thunder looks like a good play tonight also. For the first time ever I believe the Thunder are favored against the Nuggets. The public is 57% on the Nuggets and the line went Nuggets +1 to Nuggets +2, RLM. OKC has owned the Nuggets against the spread covering 6 straight. Nuggets have been a below average road team all year at 10-11. I think with homecourt and the fact that OKC definitely will want this one more than the Nuggets (Nuggets have won 8 in a row, OKC has dropped 3 in a row) that they will get it done.

**Busterflywheel** · 01-29-10, 02:06 PM

Thunder has been on fire and I like them tonight...

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 02:06 PM

Thunder -1.5 -120 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 02:22 PM

Celtics +4.5 -120 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 02:23 PM

Final Card for tonight

Heat -0.5 1st Quarter LOCKED
Heat -1.5 -115 LOCKED
Thunder -1.5 -120 LOCKED
Celtics +4.5 -120 LOCKED
Celtics 1st Half +2 LOCKED

**lakerboy** · 01-29-10, 02:25 PM

sj why are you paying -120 for thunder -1.5?

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

sj why are you paying -120 for thunder -1.5?

5Dimes has the line at -2 and I want the hook buy as I've lost/pushed way too many close games lately. You liking the Thunder tonight also?

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 03:16 PM

I think I just ended the cold streak now, got my avatar now. RIP ST26

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 05:53 PM

I don't take too much from this but its worth mentioning.

Check out this one referees numbers for this Celtics/Hawks game
Brothers: Home Team ATS 7-30-2.
The other two refs are pretty much split on the home/away teams ATS.

As for the Denver/OKC game
Corbin: Home W/L 27-9, OKC Last 10 ATS 9-1
Stafford: Home W/L 25-12-1, Home ATS 28-10

**NBAStats** · 01-29-10, 06:00 PM

It looks like you are buying alot of hooks. Keeping a flat record will be misleading in this case. I have no problem with buying the hooks, but please reflect the additional losses in your posted record.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 08:17 PM

Jermaine O'neal injured in the 1st 50 seconds of the game. There goes my Heat 1st quarter and game picks.

**djiddish98** · 01-29-10, 08:19 PM

Has anyone done some serious analysis on ref bias this year? I would think Post-Donaghy (sp?) it would be foolish for a ref to actually fix games since the scrutiny is much higher. Sure the economy is rough, but from the ref's standpoint, why risk your career for some gambling debt?

Also, I thought the logic was that refs would have a much greater impact on totals than spread due to calling fouls / not calling fouls.

2 cents.

**sweetjones55** · 01-29-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by djiddish98

Has anyone done some serious analysis on ref bias this year? I would think Post-Donaghy (sp?) it would be foolish for a ref to actually fix games since the scrutiny is much higher. Sure the economy is rough, but from the ref's standpoint, why risk your career for some gambling debt?

Also, I thought the logic was that refs would have a much greater impact on totals than spread due to calling fouls / not calling fouls.

2 cents.

I don't think the refs are fixing the games anymore but it's something I am just incorporating into my analysis to see if it is worth looking at. I definitely don't base my plays off them in the least bit but I don't think its a bad thing to be taking a home team with a bunch of refs who have great numbers ATS for home teams.

**krazey47409** · 01-29-10, 08:28 PM