TGoat's Sides

[TGoat]

1/26

lake -8.5
min +6.5 (S)
mil +6.5
pho -5.5
gs +6.5 (S)

[CHAZ]

Looks great! Your strong plays is exactly what I was hoping for.

[TGoat]

1/26

lake -8.5
min +6.5 (S)
mil +6.5
pho -5.5
gs +6.5 (S)

3-2

52-40-2

[Tomorrow night; last night of experiment]

[doublec]

Last night? Then what?

[TGoat]

Last night? Then what?

[TGoat]

1/27

tor -3 (S)
ind +5.5
min +13 (S)
nj +6.5
mem -1.5
chi +5.5
mil -2.5
san -3
den +2
port +2.5
gs +2 (S)

[doublec]

Best of luck tonight! Let's see a perfect card for your last night!

[SpreadSniper]

Liking quite a few games on the card tonight bro!

BOL

[alamo]

TGoat - Ive enjoyed all your posts to date. Some of them have been hilarious (esp the ones of the photos of your family, that BrakonGoat was an ugly mofo lol). I was in the knots laughing at the one above too!
On a more serious matter, what next for you. Your a great capper with a winning formula going. Will you continue to post ?

[SpreadSniper]

Will you continue to post ?

By the looks of it he is not slowing down

[GGPLAYER]

1/27

tor -3 (S)
ind +5.5
min +13 (S)
nj +6.5
mem -1.5
chi +5.5
mil -2.5
san -3
den +2
port -2.5
gs +2 (S)

Do you mean Port +2.5? Or Ut -2.5?

[TGoat]

Do you mean Port +2.5? Or Ut -2.5?

Port +2.5, thanks. Fixed it.

[TGoat]

1/27

tor -3 (S)
ind +5.5
min +13 (S)
nj +6.5
mem -1.5
chi +5.5
mil -2.5
san -3
den +2
port +2.5
gs +2 (S)

7-4

59-44-2 (57.28%) +9.69 Units



So, the two-week experiment draws to a close. Earlier in the thread I said:

"I'm going to put up a pick for every game for the next two weeks and see if I can hit 55%, which is the current percentage since the system began. (246-199)"

Elswhere I remarked that I was 95% confident the system would hit around 55% for the two-week period.

I thought there would be around 100 games and there were 105, and I also estimated about a +5 Unit profit.

The overall results for the system are 303-242 (56%) + 33.43 Units.

So, my expectations were fulfilled. Hitting 57% instead of 55% almost doubled the number of units won (9.69). But I could have lost, and I'm fully aware that the next two-week period could easily be 51%. I did go back and recheck every two-week period since the system began and there was one losing two-week period where it lost about 1 Unit.

All in all, I'm starting to have some confidence in the system. It seems to hold up well over time, the sample size is large, and it has shown no signs of regressing. I'm not easily impressed, but a purely mechanical system that can consistently hit around 55% is a bit amazing--even to me. The only drawback is that you have to bet every game.

The worst category was home favorites. 93-88 (51%) -3.46 Units. Will it stay that way. I'm not sure, but I lean in the direction that yes, it will. Had you eliminated home favorites and played all the other games the results would be:

210-154 (57.6%) +37 Units (About 4 units difference. Not that much really.)

I'm also fully aware that one good year means nothing. The standard deviation is very high for things like this.

By the way, the "strong" plays went 9-7 for 56%. Not as well as expected.

What to do now?

I'm going to stop posting plays for at least the next two weeks, but I will post the results at the end of that time period.

On to other things.

Good luck to all.

[lyon804]

You keep it up TGoat and you will have a rockstars following. You are a very bright minded individual to be able to design a system to allow you to pick winners. I will just quit capping my winners and tail you for now on. I got a pretty decent size BR I might just sell my business and tail your plays so i can stay at home and chill brother.

I imagine you must have a high IQ. I told you my father can do stuff like that too and he has a genius IQ. Me, not so much... I took after my motherI am lucky if I can turn my computer on and get on the internet.

The system you have... you basically have to understand code and programming right??

[tnnt]

Problem with systems is that one setting will work for one game but might not work for the other 8 games on the board. I think it would be beneficial if you could incorporate logic and more human related factors (injuries, team on hot streak). Take for instance, Utah vs Portland. Most cappers went with Portland cuz they are great at home. Most power ranking systems also suggest Port +2.5 was the play, except thespread, which had Utah -4. Utah has been playing out of their mind lately and they carried that into Portland tonight. So pardon my bad English but I think if somehow more people could come in here and discuss games/picks and stuff then we would all benefit. Just a thought.

[TGoat]

The system you have... you basically have to understand code and programming right??

Thanks, Lyon. No. I don't know how to program, but I do fairly well with Excel. This system is 100% Excel.

[TGoat]

Problem with systems is that one setting will work for one game but might not work for the other 8 games on the board.

Yes and no. I would agree with you 100% were it not for the results my system has achieved. Therefore, using the same "settings" for all of the games seems to have some merit.

I think it would be beneficial if you could incorporate logic and more human related factors (injuries, team on hot streak).

Couldn't agree with you more, but that would require a degree in programing, which I don't have.

It's also a ton of work, and in my opinion falls outside the bounds of a "system." Which injuries are important? How do you know for sure if someone who is supposedly injured will play? Which "streaks" deserve the most merit? Etc., etc. etc.

This requires judgment by the user and the program is just helping you in your decision making process. So in my opinion, it's not really a system per se.

My system requires two things:

1. Input scores at end of game.
2. Input lines before games start.

The spreadsheet does everything else.

Take for instance, Utah vs Portland. Most cappers went with Portland cuz they are great at home. Most power ranking systems also suggest Port +2.5 was the play, except thespread, which had Utah -4. Utah has been playing out of their mind lately and they carried that into Portland tonight.

Just so you know, I did not bet one single system pick tonight. In fact, I bet opposite my system on one side (and lost).

I'm impressed "the spread" analyzed that game correctly. If you don't mind my asking, how did "the spread" do on all of the other games tonight, and how do you know which games to go with using someone else's situational analysis?

So pardon my bad English but I think if somehow more people could come in here and discuss games/picks and stuff then we would all benefit. Just a thought.

Discussion is good. However, there are already a ton of threads doing just that. I'm sure you can find at least a half a dozen or more threads each and every day talking about individual games and matchups. There are so many in fact, that I have trouble keeping up. Would yet another such thread add that much more to the discussion?

[tnnt]

I'm impressed "the spread" analyzed that game correctly. If you don't mind my asking, how did "the spread" do on all of the other games tonight, and how do you know which games to go with using someone else's situational analysis?

Discussion is good. However, there are already a ton of threads doing just that. I'm sure you can find at least a half a dozen or more threads each and every day talking about individual games and matchups. There are so many in fact, that I have trouble keeping up. Would yet another such thread add that much more to the discussion?

Here s thespread's analysis for 1/27.
Utah -4 right
Okc -9 wrong
LAL -5 wrong
Tor 0 wrong
Cavs -23 right
Clips -7 wrong
Mem -5 right
Milw -5 right
SAS -1 wrong
Den -5 right
NOH -1 wrong

If we just go with those picks we'd end up 5-6. My point is if we re-analyse what the system gives us then maybe we could have better winners.

[lyon804]

Thanks, Lyon. No. I don't know how to program, but I do fairly well with Excel. This system is 100% Excel.

Interesting, thanks for answering TGoat!!

[Busterflywheel]

Nice run last night goat BL today with your plays!

[schenker88]

tgoat u'll really stop posting plays?

[SpreadSniper]

freaaaking great stuff bro. I'd TRY an excel system if I didn't once break a mouse due to being a fackin retard when it came to using that frustrating little rectangular squares with the formulas and the cant type anywhere properly and fa;djklfha;sldjfh; - frustration

[CHAZ]

I hate seeing your not posting your play anymore TGOAT. I checked your plays everyday to compare them to my own.

[GGPLAYER]

I hate seeing your not posting your play anymore TGOAT. I checked your plays everyday to compare them to my own.

Only 3 games today...hurmor us and post your plays...please

[TGoat]

Only 3 games today...hurmor us and post your plays...please

Sorry, guys, but I have to look for a job. I'm willing to relocate.

Anybody out there hiring?

[SpreadSniper]

Sunny Winnipeg, Canada sound OK to you? If you know how to use a keyboard, take phone calls and are technical I could use a good man or 2.
Upside to the job - you get to sit here all day with me, pretend to work and get paid to research your plays for the most part - pretty laxed around here.

[TGoat]

Sunny Winnipeg, Canada sound OK to you? If you know how to use a keyboard, take phone calls and are technical I could use a good man or 2.
Upside to the job - you get to sit here all day with me, pretend to work and get paid to research your plays for the most part - pretty laxed around here.

I'd probably have to re-watch Fargo and say "aye" a lot, but what the hell.

Check your PMs, Snipey.

[NBAStats]

Sorry, guys, but I have to look for a job. I'm willing to relocate. Anybody out there hiring?

Do you have alot of knowledge of poker and casino in addition to sportsbetting? Do you like to write?

[TGoat]

Do you have alot of knowledge of poker and casino in addition to sportsbetting? Do you like to write?

Yes, yes and yes.

[doublec]

Thanks for everything, TGoat! Good luck with further tests!

[sprn]

Are you going to pick this up again?