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1/22
wash +3
orl -9.5 (*)
mil +7.5
phil +3
port +10.5
char +7
mem -3.5 (S)
ny +5.5 (S)
ind +3.5
min +3.5
san -6
pho -6.5
gs -7.5
*[Note: if the sac/orl line was -10 or higher the play would be on Sacramento. At -9.5 or lower it's Orlando. Sometimes a close game will depend on the final line you go with. No other games are that close. Officially, I'm going with what's posted, Orlando-9.5.]Comment -
hey man,
i am subscriber of pluslinesport team
their ATS lines are also the same a little difference is that they have only released 8 games for tonights action!
I hope all them will be a winner!!! GLComment -
Best of luck tonight! Like several of those picks!Comment -
good job waiting goat. You got the wizards at another point and a half. PPL DONT WAITsbrComment -
Interesting...I'm on the other side of quite a few of these. Both the strong plays too. This could get ugly.
One that sticks out to me is Mem -3.5. How can you go against OKC getting points? Both are ATS montser's so I'm wondering how that one ended up being a "strong play".Comment -
Gambling is all about managing the luck. This is especially true in a game like poker. It's not quite as relevant in sports betting, but still applicable in some situations.
Everyone talks about luck, but I don't really believe in luck, per se. The way I look at things luck is just another way of describing short term fluctuations. If I was lucky tonight, then most of the "fluctuations" went my way, or vice-versa.
In poker you have no idea how things are going to go. Are you catching cards, are they hitting and holding up, are you getting any action on them? Or, are you not catching anything and what you do get loses. You can stay when you're winning and quit when things aren't going so well. You need to get a little bit "lucky" to have a good night.
Sports betting on the other hand is more finite. For one thing you can't quit in the middle of a game if it looks like a sure loser. You can't forfeit part of your bet. You could go 100% every night if you simply picked the winning team. That can't happen in poker, because even if you start out with the best hand every time you're going to get drawn out on a certain percentage of the time.
But in sports betting you only have to pick the right side between 55 and 65% of the time to show a nice long-term profit. You don't really have to get as lucky, although in some games it will appear that you were indeed lucky--or unlucky as the case may be. My feeling is that if I lost a game then I bet the wrong side. Many people feel just the opposite. "If I hadn't been unlucky he blew those last two free-throws then I would have won." Well, he did blow them and you lost. Was that skill or luck?
Some games are just going to come down to the last couple of shots.
The good sports bettor is on the "right side" more often that he's on the "wrong side," and luck doesn't play as large a roll. Most of your losing sports bets happen because one team plays worse than expected or another team plays better than expected. On any given night, versus the spread, anything can happen. But for the winning sports bettor the "right" thing will happen more often than the "wrong" thing will happen.
Sports betting is very skill based, as is poker, but I think that sports betting has an even larger element of skill. If you can beat that 11-10 consistently you must be doing something right. I've known many professional poker players in my life, but I can't even count on one hand all of the professional sports bettors I have known.
This all remeinds me (somewhat painfully) of when I first started posting my total plays. I was on fire, and everyone was clamoring for my picks. When I cooled off (badly), I was indeed the "loneliest guy in town."Comment -
I have Memphis winning by 16. Subtract the 3.5 points and I have them winning by 12.83.
Go with what you believe in. This could very well be a bad night for me. I kind of have a bad feeling. If LB is opposite many of my plays, then I know I am in trouble. Go with him instead.Comment -
nice write-up bud....
"My feeling is that if I lost a game then I bet the wrong side. Many people feel just the opposite. "If I hadn't been unlucky he blew those last two free-throws then I would have won." Well, he did blow them and you lost. Was that skill or luck?"
Love this....Comment -
TGoat, whast the S beside your picks stand for?Comment -
T-Goat nice write up...BOl with your plays tonight
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"S" stands for SUPER DOOOPER FANTASTIC PLAY !Comment -
TGoat, Lets bet a few sbr pts on memphis -3.5? i will take Thunders +3.5 here! just for funComment -
Tough for me to go against the strong picks but I have my own system which had the Lakers and OKC winning. I like reviewing your findings with mine each day. Thanks again for posting these.Comment -
TGoat, I think its funny how an off night for you seems to be 7-6. I'm impressed how you can pick all the games and still do well. I struggle just hitting "ideal" matchups.
Keep at it!Comment -
1/23
char -1.5
ind -2.5*
mia -7 *
port +2.5
cle -8
chi +6.5 *
min +7.5
den -11.5 *
gs +12
nj +16.5 *
{* means games are very close to being a tossup}
I did some checking and my system has picked GS every single time.Comment -
Didn't realize there were morning games: These are the plays even though two games have started. [I'm putting these up so I'll have an accurate record. The two games that are already going I'm losing, so I hope no one thinks that I'm fudging the situation.]
1/24
wash -3
ny +1.5
tor +4.5Comment -
What's your opinion on Half-game betting, TGoat?Comment -
i feel a turn in the tide comming......
GL today bud!Comment -
todays actions master?
u r late
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TGoat, stats for your past 3 Days (since January 22nd, 2010) is 12-14 0.462 over 26 games with a -2U (I assumed all your units were 1 cause you never mentioned unit on each play). Your 0-2 on Stronger Plays and am unsure of what 0-1 for * plays. (not sure what that is, think its a teaser as the game you got was a large spread). Anycase keep the picks coming. Trends to note:
2-0 when betting on POR games
0-2 when betting on OKC games
0-2 when betting on WAS games
your 3-8 when choosing a favourite to cover the spread and 9-6 when picking underdogs to cover the spread.Comment -
I think it can be quite profitable for the observant sports bettor. I know Billy Baxter uses 2nd half betting quite profitably. (Billy Baxter interview part 1 of 4), but I tend to shy away from it. LB makes a lot of 2nd half bets, but I don't know where he gets his 2nd half stats from. I don't see any on SBR odds.
I've made a few good 2nd half bets by observing what took place in the first half. I've also been completely fooled. Teams might do the exactly the opposite of what they did in the first half.
I think for those that watch the games closely 2nd half betting can be very profitable. For me, it's tough enough doing full-game handicapping, and I haven't really looked into 1st half betting all that much.Comment -
1/25
ind +5.5
mia -1
la +11.5
mem +1
chi +8
hou -1
pho +7
den -5.5 (S)
port -2.5Comment -
You're right. I don't track, specifically how I do against each team, but as far as the other categories I do. If you look at the screen shot you'll see that home favorites is my weakest category. It was profitable (for the first time) until the last couple of days.
The two strongest categories until recently were road favorites (#1 @ 60%) and road dogs. Home dogs were slightly above break even and home favorites were losing. Then over the last month or so the two bad areas got better. If you leave out home favorites that improves the overall percentage about 2% to 57%.
I find it very interesting (and very surprising) that road favorites have done so well considering this is one of the weakest areas for many sports bettors.
Road dogs is the strongest category. It also has the most number of games and units won.
It might just be me, but I think my system is improving with age. The sample size is fairly large now (over 500 games) and it seems to be showing consistency across the board.
There were more of the very strong plays earlier in the season, but there haven't been any for quite some time. That's probably because earlier in the season the teams hadn't fully sorted themselves out yet. As the season progresses and the lines get sharper the very strong plays diminish in frequency.
It's also worth noting that I haven't made one single tweak to the system since it began, which was after each team had at least three games.Comment -
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You got robbed! Portland blows a huge lead and Miami couldn't finish. Although some books had Miami +1.5, so it wasn't that bad of a call. Nice hit on the Strong though!Comment -
Good work TgoatComment -
I'm feeling you on that Mia game! Man that sucked. I had that as my strongest play of the night. Wish my book at them at +1
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