Spurs overvalued, Rockets will soon falter
The NBA's Southwest division is as tight as they come, making it all the more difficult to get a good read on the five teams in the group when laying money down. But it should get easier starting this week when San Antonio becomes a great fade due to being overvalued and Houston quits playing above its head. Memphis might be the best bet of them all and capped to cover many of their upcoming big dog spreads.
Betting the NBA’s Southwest Division is a challenge. With all five teams around the .500 mark against the spread, you have to dig a little deeper than ATS records to find an angle worth pursuing.
The story was much the same last year, when three of the five teams (Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) each finished just one game into the red. New Orleans and Memphis brought up the rear for spread bettors last season, but it appears that only the Grizzlies have made inroads after going 38-43-1 ATS in 2008-09.
The Hornets are once again candidates for fade bait in the Southwest after covering only 34 times last season. As you’ll see, New Orleans is anything but a big easy wager – especially now that Chris Paul is back in the lineup.
Dallas Mavericks (17-7, 13-11 ATS)
The Mavericks started the season in bettors’ good graces, but their strong showing in the standings has oddsmakers tacking on points on a nightly basis. Dallas is barely making a profit after going only 2-6 ATS (5-3 SU) in its last eight games.
Big D has overperformed on the road, where the Mavs are an impressive 9-4 against the number. Dallas is only 4-7 ATS at home, so look to fade it when it hosts New Orleans, Houston, and Cleveland this week.
Over the long haul, the Mavs are a team built for the grind of the regular season. Dallas could be a sharp play down the stretch because of its depth: The Mavericks have nine players averaging 7.0+ points per game.
Houston Rockets (13-10, 14-9 ATS)
The Rockets are the best wager in the division, but that’s about to change. Yes, Houston is a solid 5-2 against the spread (5-2 SU) over its last seven games, but it’s only +1.4 in point differential. The Rockets are currently hitting above their weight.
Like Dallas, Houston is a worthwhile play on the road, with a 9-5 ATS mark to its credit. With games at Denver and Dallas this week, the Rockets are a sharp underdog bet in those spots.
Totals bettors should also zero in on Rick Adelman’s team. Houston has played under the total in eight consecutive games (5-3, 5-3 ATS).
San Antonio Spurs (12-9, 10-11 ATS)
San Antonio is overvalued now that it has its entire rotation – sans Michael Finley (ankle) – back on the floor. The Spurs are a money-draining 2-5 ATS (4-3 SU) in their last six games, during which they lost at home to Boston and Denver, and failed to cover in home victories against lowly Philadelphia and Sacramento.
Take a wait-and-see approach with San Antonio, because it’s still figuring out its rotation to an extent. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili have all missed time this season, and Richard Jefferson is still finding his way in a new uniform.
Fade the Spurs when they play at Phoenix and Golden State this week. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS away from the AT&T Center this season.
New Orleans Hornets (10-12, 9-13 ATS)
Also struggling with a 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) record in their last six games, the Hornets are well on their way to becoming the worst bet in the league.
The problem? Paul has returned from an ankle injury that sidelined him for eight contests earlier in the year. There’s no doubt Paul helps New Orleans on the hardwood, but his talent doesn’t offset his public status as a superstar. Paul ups the price on the Hornets to the point that you should stay away at all costs.
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) when Paul sits this season, but is an awful 3-11 against the number (7-9 SU) when he suits up. This will correct itself, but not anytime soon.
Memphis Grizzlies (10-13, 11-12 ATS)
Lying just below the surface of the predictable failure that was the Allen Iverson experiment is a Grizzlies team that’s coming together for bettors.
Memphis closed out last week by going 3-1 both ATS and SU to approach the black on the NBA moneylist. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo give the Grizz two above-average perimeter scorers, while Zach Randolph has actually fit in as the club’s go-to option in the paint.
With big dog tags surely coming this week against Boston, Atlanta, and Denver, Memphis should be capped to cover in all three games.
The NBA's Southwest division is as tight as they come, making it all the more difficult to get a good read on the five teams in the group when laying money down. But it should get easier starting this week when San Antonio becomes a great fade due to being overvalued and Houston quits playing above its head. Memphis might be the best bet of them all and capped to cover many of their upcoming big dog spreads.
Betting the NBA’s Southwest Division is a challenge. With all five teams around the .500 mark against the spread, you have to dig a little deeper than ATS records to find an angle worth pursuing.
The story was much the same last year, when three of the five teams (Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) each finished just one game into the red. New Orleans and Memphis brought up the rear for spread bettors last season, but it appears that only the Grizzlies have made inroads after going 38-43-1 ATS in 2008-09.
The Hornets are once again candidates for fade bait in the Southwest after covering only 34 times last season. As you’ll see, New Orleans is anything but a big easy wager – especially now that Chris Paul is back in the lineup.
Dallas Mavericks (17-7, 13-11 ATS)
The Mavericks started the season in bettors’ good graces, but their strong showing in the standings has oddsmakers tacking on points on a nightly basis. Dallas is barely making a profit after going only 2-6 ATS (5-3 SU) in its last eight games.
Big D has overperformed on the road, where the Mavs are an impressive 9-4 against the number. Dallas is only 4-7 ATS at home, so look to fade it when it hosts New Orleans, Houston, and Cleveland this week.
Over the long haul, the Mavs are a team built for the grind of the regular season. Dallas could be a sharp play down the stretch because of its depth: The Mavericks have nine players averaging 7.0+ points per game.
Houston Rockets (13-10, 14-9 ATS)
The Rockets are the best wager in the division, but that’s about to change. Yes, Houston is a solid 5-2 against the spread (5-2 SU) over its last seven games, but it’s only +1.4 in point differential. The Rockets are currently hitting above their weight.
Like Dallas, Houston is a worthwhile play on the road, with a 9-5 ATS mark to its credit. With games at Denver and Dallas this week, the Rockets are a sharp underdog bet in those spots.
Totals bettors should also zero in on Rick Adelman’s team. Houston has played under the total in eight consecutive games (5-3, 5-3 ATS).
San Antonio Spurs (12-9, 10-11 ATS)
San Antonio is overvalued now that it has its entire rotation – sans Michael Finley (ankle) – back on the floor. The Spurs are a money-draining 2-5 ATS (4-3 SU) in their last six games, during which they lost at home to Boston and Denver, and failed to cover in home victories against lowly Philadelphia and Sacramento.
Take a wait-and-see approach with San Antonio, because it’s still figuring out its rotation to an extent. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili have all missed time this season, and Richard Jefferson is still finding his way in a new uniform.
Fade the Spurs when they play at Phoenix and Golden State this week. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS away from the AT&T Center this season.
New Orleans Hornets (10-12, 9-13 ATS)
Also struggling with a 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) record in their last six games, the Hornets are well on their way to becoming the worst bet in the league.
The problem? Paul has returned from an ankle injury that sidelined him for eight contests earlier in the year. There’s no doubt Paul helps New Orleans on the hardwood, but his talent doesn’t offset his public status as a superstar. Paul ups the price on the Hornets to the point that you should stay away at all costs.
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) when Paul sits this season, but is an awful 3-11 against the number (7-9 SU) when he suits up. This will correct itself, but not anytime soon.
Memphis Grizzlies (10-13, 11-12 ATS)
Lying just below the surface of the predictable failure that was the Allen Iverson experiment is a Grizzlies team that’s coming together for bettors.
Memphis closed out last week by going 3-1 both ATS and SU to approach the black on the NBA moneylist. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo give the Grizz two above-average perimeter scorers, while Zach Randolph has actually fit in as the club’s go-to option in the paint.
With big dog tags surely coming this week against Boston, Atlanta, and Denver, Memphis should be capped to cover in all three games.
