70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

koby25 · 12-15-09, 01:35 PM

Good luck

Better2Belucky · 12-15-09, 02:34 PM

Okay my math may be off because I just read your post about 10 minutes ago. Tonight's a play for Toronto correct?

Miami are at .500
Toronto are at .423

500-423= 77/20= 3.85
3.85+ 3 for being at home is 6.85 points. 6.85-7 (spread) = -.15

I remember reading if the number is one 1 or less take the other team correct?

Also Toronto did not play last night and their starters are in.

Let me know if I did this correctly because this is going to be a learning process.

Better2Belucky · 12-15-09, 02:49 PM

Im sorry I didnt round up from 3.85.

The total now would be at 0 so since it is not lees than or equal to -1 it isn't a play after all.

corona · 12-15-09, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by Better2Belucky

3.85+ 3 for being at home is 6.85 points. 6.85-7 (spread) = -.15

I remember reading if the number is one 1 or less take the other team correct?

less than or equal to -1

-0.15 is greater than -1.

corona · 12-16-09, 12:39 AM

i believe utah is a play for wednesday @ new jersey, as long as the spread is under 10. its also a jm play.
kirilenko & korver are bench players (both just returned), and wes matthews appears to be the starter at the 2.

atlanta would be a play at -9, but marvin williams (starter) missed the previous game (flu).

mundane · 12-16-09, 03:21 AM

12/16 PLAY/S:

UTAH -7.5 ~ 14.67
ORL possible play

waiting for the ORL line but Dwight Howard is "Questionable - Possible Suspension" but one site says - "Dwight Howard will not be fined or suspended for his brief altercation with the Pacers' Troy Murphy Monday night.Murphy pulled at Howard's neck and shoulders to prevent a dunk, and Howard retaliated by swatting at Murphy, missing. The NBA has rescinded the technical foul Howard received on the play and assessed Murphy a Flagrant 1 foul."

so if he plays and the line is not dbl digits, barring other filters, ORL will also be a PLAY!

BOL to all!

edited: clips opened -1 not +1. my bad!

PacmanJr_00 · 12-16-09, 11:37 AM

Orlando line is double digits according to sbrodds; it opened at -11. Also, Marvin practiced yesterday and will play tonight.

I have CLE as a play though West will not play. Not sure he is considered a starter though. Are the Clippers eliminated all year due to Blake Griffin's injury?

Bigcheez · 12-16-09, 01:32 PM

New to the forum and would like to contribute when it can benefit others.

According to the Orlando Sentinel Dwight Howard will not be suspended but the line is double digits.

It looks like Joe Smith is not going to be playing for the Hawks either.

Pensinger1 · 12-16-09, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

Orlando line is double digits according to sbrodds; it opened at -11. Also, Marvin practiced yesterday and will play tonight. I have CLE as a play though West will not play. Not sure he is considered a starter though. Are the Clippers eliminated all year due to Blake Griffin's injury?

The clippers are eliminated all year because they are the clippers.

In all seriousness, I doubt the clips will ever be a play using this formula. The formula is designed to find "undervalued favorites"... such a term does not belong in the same sentence with the los angeles clippers.

HoulihansTX · 12-16-09, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Pensinger1

The clippers are eliminated all year because they are the clippers. In all seriousness, I doubt the clips will ever be a play using this formula. The formula is designed to find "undervalued favorites"... such a term does not belong in the same sentence with the los angeles clippers.

If you watch 1 half of a Clippers game you will no longer wonder why they annually suck.

mundane · 12-17-09, 08:59 AM

Ytd 4-1

12/17 no plays

mundane · 12-18-09, 12:12 PM

12/18 - 2 PLAYS

Indiana +4.5 at Memphis (Play Other ATS *-1.07)
Sacramento -1.5 at Minnesota (Play *10.72)

BOL to all! if i've missed something, lemme know!

ijenpo · 12-18-09, 12:27 PM

Line for Indiana is +6 now, but still a play.
Should Toronto -8 be a play as well?

mundane · 12-18-09, 12:34 PM

not my system but i decided to track with opening lines only!

proceed with caution if u decide to play "line movements" plays! goodluck!

pelos879 · 12-18-09, 02:00 PM

[COLOR=#000000! important]Well if the Pacers were a play at +4.5 shouldn't they have to be a play at +6?[/COLOR]

corona · 12-18-09, 04:40 PM

^yes, even better.

Should Toronto -8 be a play as well?

turkoglu just returned for their last game. so they're ineligible for a week.

Jasonal_98 · 12-18-09, 05:57 PM

Would those of you who have played this a while recommend 2 straight bets and a parlay tonight. . .or just 2 straight bets?

HoulihansTX · 12-18-09, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Jasonal_98

Would those of you who have played this a while recommend 2 straight bets and a parlay tonight. . .or just 2 straight bets?

I played them straight. Parlay with small chips if you would like, but definitely straight bet them.

corona · 12-18-09, 10:26 PM

yuck.

mundane · 12-18-09, 10:41 PM

ytd: 4-3

ngates815 · 12-19-09, 08:39 AM

Whew...Luckily I haven't been checking this in a few days....Just been doing ML parlays, and 10pt teasers.

ZHUZHU · 12-20-09, 02:18 PM

12/20/09 Plays

just started following this looks like
Mavs +4 is play today if Dirk is playing
(I also like Mavs Cavs Over Total 187.5 any thoughts?)
Lakers no play because back to back

Would Nuggets -1.5 be a play if you bought some pts? thanks

Meestermike · 12-21-09, 11:39 AM

No Plays Today.

corona · 12-22-09, 12:36 PM

for Tuesday...

Atlanta appears to be a play up to -9.5
Lakers are a play at -9.5 or better

PacmanJr_00 · 12-22-09, 06:50 PM

didn't the lakers open at -10?

jakeandba · 12-22-09, 06:50 PM

just wanted to be clear about 2 possible plays today...is there a way to confirm these are plays today?

KTFO · 12-22-09, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by jakeandba

just wanted to be clear about 2 possible plays today...is there a way to confirm these are plays today?

Lakers -9.5 is a play that won't count towards mundane's record-keeping of this thread because the spread opened at -10. Play at your own risk.

KTFO · 12-23-09, 06:18 PM

Well, I guess I wrote the last message, so I'll keep this going:

No Plays, December 23rd, unless I missed something.

YTD Record: 5-3 (62.5%)

HayMan · 12-23-09, 08:14 PM

Yeah, what happened to this thread, Mundane was keeping it going, but it just seemed to die. Not enough action? Pics seem pretty promising, like to see it continue to fully grasp all rules.

Meestermike · 12-26-09, 10:06 AM

There could have been a play yesterday... Portland +2.5 at home to Denver after Portland SG Brandon Roy returned from a one-game absence in a big way on Christmas against Denver. Roy sat out Wednesday's game at San Antonio with a shoulder sprain. He wore a thin brace to protect the shoulder on Friday.
Roy scored 41 points on 16 for 26 shooting, adding six rebounds and four assists.

As he is a starter this game did not qualify as per injury filter.

Meestermike · 12-26-09, 11:00 AM

Here we go with today

26-Dec-09 ATL -6 @ IND 10.05... PLAY no higher than -6. If -6.5 = NO PLAY
26-Dec-09 HOU -8.5 @ NJ 14.36... PLAY no higher than -9.5.
26-Dec-09 UT -7 vs PHI 11.09... PLAY no higher than -8. If -8.5 = NO PLAY

KTFO · 12-26-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Meestermike

Here we go with today

~~26-Dec-09 ATL -6 @ IND 10.05... PLAY no higher than -6. If -6.5 = NO PLAY~~
26-Dec-09 HOU -8.5 @ NJ 14.36... PLAY no higher than -9.5.
~~26-Dec-09 UT -7 vs PHI 11.09... PLAY no higher than -8. If -8.5 = NO PLAY~~

Hey Meester,

The opening lines for ATL and UTA were -7 and -8.5 respectively. Wouldn't that make those picks, "line move/play at your own risk," "not recorded in this thread's record" plays?

Meestermike · 12-26-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by KTFO

Hey Meester,

The opening lines for ATL and UTA were -7 and -8.5 respectively. Wouldn't that make those picks, "line move/play at your own risk," "not recorded in this thread's record" plays?

At some books Utah opened at -8 and at others at -8.5. -8 would be a play at 10.09 whereas -8.5 would not be a valid play.

I have used this system in many respects & if lines move to the good side of the calculation, resulting in +++ $$$ gains.

Out of respect for tracking in this thread, Only Houston is a play.

I also track the system without injury, B to B, and DD line filters. Also use Home and Away Win %'s and a Win % Edge calculation. Just added extra columns on the tracking report for comparison.

KTFO · 12-26-09, 01:16 PM

I personally haven't been tracking any other variables.

From your tracking, how does it do without injuries? I've always found NBA injuries to be really overrated. Dallas and Portland were the best examples the last couple of days.

12-20: No Dirk, Dallas playing against Cleveland as home dogs +3.5, and they win outright.
12-22: Dirk is back, playing against a Portland team that has everyone injured, -5.5, and they lose outright.
12-23: Portland decides to take anyone still alive on their team and travel to San Antonio (B-2-B) where they win outright as 12-point dogs...

Anything of note from the other angles you've been recording?

I had discovered this system in the past, and looking for more information is what led me to SBR in the first place. It seems to be good, but EVERYONE seems to tweak it differently. Unfortunately for me, I'm only at 50% this year with it. That's why I'm going to go 100% with what mundane had/has going on here. Not many plays, but over 60% (hopefully).

Meestermike · 12-26-09, 01:30 PM

Plays without any filters at all are 12 - 6 -1 = .667
Plays without just injury filter are 4-0-1 = 1.000
Plays with out DD fav or dog filter are 4-3 = .571
Plays without B-B filter are 4-3 = .571

Hm and AW Win % tracking WIN 29 LOSS 26 52.73%