WNBA Playoffs picks.

[chubber911]

For the WNBA picks I played this season, it was a mix of tails, self-picks, and combos of the 2. Using my methods, I managed a record of 153-109 (58.40%), with an ROI of 14.13% (I don't know how many units I gained, because my unit size always fluctuates with the size of my bankroll). I'll be sharing my WNBA playoff picks, whether you tail or not is up to you. I'll personally be making all bets at 1 unit (2% of bankroll) and no higher. These are the playoffs and things may not be as predictable as the regular season.

Also, just to be a doll, I'll tell you what I think the worst odds that I would still consider the plays to be +EV at.



Picks for September 16, 2009

Shock -3.5 (max -4.5)
Storm/Sparks O137.5 (max O139)


Best of luck through the playoffs, all.

[chubber911]

1-1 Yesterday.


Picks for September 17, 2009

Fever/Mystics O144 (max 144.5)


I'll have one more play after the line moves, so check back in the afternoon for that pick.

[ghn999]

Who do you guys think the Mercury will beat the Stars. Anyone?

Im going with the Mercury but Im not that sure about the pick. Your thoughts?

[chubber911]

Second pick for the day:

Mystics +3 (max +2.5)


ghn999,
I'm not really too fond of betting the Mercury in this spot. Judging from my statistical analysis, I believe they're only favoured by a 1/2 point tonight. San Antonio has also shown they know how to handle the Mercury at home. I don't think a bet on Pheonix tonight is worthwhile unless they were actually getting points on the spread. As it is, I don't like betting SA either, unless they're getting at least 3.5 on the spread. This game seems too close to call to me. Best of luck.

[oda11]

[chubber911]

1-1 for today again. Brings playoff record to 2-2.

[chubber911]

Picks for September 18, 2009

Dream -6 (this is actually the max I'd make this bet at, and I don't think it's worthwhile to take this line at worse than -105)
Storm -2.5 (max -4.5)
Sparks/Storm O137 (max O140)


I also like taking Shock/Dream UNDER if the line moves to 169.5 or better. It's borderline right now for me. I'm playing 2 units on Storm -2.5... I know I said I would only make 1 unit plays, but I'm a sentient being and allowed to change my mind. This looks like a really solid play at -2.5

[Pin Fish]

My intial lean is LA eliminates them...............right now 60% on Seattle will watch and make finaL choice closer to tip off

[RoagBettor]

Seattle may have crapped their load in Game 1. LA is playing at a championship level like Detroit.

That being said, I'm only playing this game in my teaser with LA getting 10.5 points.

[ztballer]

Hey mate I'm on the same picks as you, I'm over on Atl and under on Sea, I know Agler will lock down defense at home and it's going to end up being a low scoring game

BOL everyone. Let's kill the books!

[NBA Hero]

i gotta side with seattle. its hard to believe they are gonna fade that easy

[Pin Fish]

oh well this means la no matter what sunday....and some cash on this game with seattle losing by 1

[SportsTerminator]

oh well this means la no matter what sunday....and some cash on this game with seattle losing by 1

True BUT they prob. won't cover but will win... Knowing the bookies they'll make it prob LA -4.

[chubber911]

1-2 tonight, bringing the total record to 3-4

[chubber911]

Plays for September 19, 2009

Silver Stars/Mercury U181 (max U177)

I'm going to be a bit more cautious about side plays for the playoffs because I think there's a bit more going on behind who wins than I think about. That said, even if I wasn't being more cautious, both games would be no plays for me. Bookies nailed the spread right on, as far as my stats capping goes. BOL everyone.

[chubber911]

Just because I'm bored, here's my handicapping for the above pick laid out for all.

San Antonio had a regular season Offensive Rating of 99.82 on the road.
Phoenix had a regular season Offensive Rating of 111.89 at home.

San Antonio had a regular season Defensive Rating of 104.42
Phoenix had a regular season Defensive Rating of 106.56

Based on both teams' average number of possessions per game (calculated using total pts, FTs, offensive rebounds, and turnovers), San Antonio will have average 79.47 possessions, and Phoenix will have 78.78 possessions.

Multiplying each team's Effective Offensive Rating by the average # of possessions, I get that San Antonio will score 82.01 points on average, and Phoenix will score 85.21 points on average. This totals 167.22... 13.78 points less than the line being offered of 181 total points. There's more work to be done from this point to make picks on sides, because obviously Mercury are much stronger than a 3.5 point favourite in this game, and HCA + situation needs to be factored in. My method's not perfect, but nobody's is, including bookies, it's just about trying to be more accurate than the average bear.

[chubber911]

0-1 for today. 3-5 total now. ffs..

[chubber911]

Short notice, I know, but I'm still posting these for record keeping purposes.


Plays for September 20, 2009

Storm +3
Sparks/Storm O139


Giving the Storm 3 pts tonight is very generous. I think people are giving LA too much credit tonight, but we will see.