Hey Samson if youre going to put your own twist on the system try this, it worked for me in NBA last season. You were sayin how Sac was a play today but you didnt want to play it because theyre the worst team in the league. Take the teams theyre playing on the road and bet accordingly. I did that last season in the NBA for teams like the Clippers, Kings, etc. It worked out.
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I just noticed that Sac is on a 5 game road trip. Since we missed the first two games if they lose tonight could'nt keep betting them for the remaining two games? Sort of treat tonight like an (A) bet. Just a thought.Comment -
You could do that. Did Sac cover their last two road games? If so I wouldnt recommend it.Comment -
No that is why they are considered a "C" bet tonight.Comment -
Gotcha!Comment -
"C" bet loses. I guess the worst team shouldnt be played.Comment -
ah well.
next play will be connecticut @ indiana on july 2nd (thursday)Comment -
That is 2 "C" loses this year already. I don't think there was more than 2 in a year before this, right?
Friggin 11 point 2nd quarter...that sucked.Comment -
Worst teams shouldn't be played! That's two C's losses this year, so I don't expect anymore this year at all. So, it's Connecticut @ Indiana on July 2nd and the True JM on 7/3 CHICAGO san antonio sacramento phoenix.Comment -
Somebody take this thread behind a woodshed and kill it.
Trust me, there is no system that will give you plays for WNBA. Unless you are skilled enough to be able to build a black box program. I've got one for NBA, but its a total waste of time for WNBA.
You see all the threads pertaining to WNBA are making money.
Do 30mins of research, pick the obvious play, win some money.Comment -
black box program? Now I'm curious......
??Comment -
The JM system won't work on WNBA because the synergy is different with women than with men. Once women get tired they cave in immediately. Men will continue to push through the barrier and keep going. Stamina is not on your side when attempting to cross this system over into another sport. With this sport, you'd better have a plan and you'd better know how to read line movements, and that's pretty much all that there is to it.
Secondly if it were true JM plays, it would occur only when the teams face 3 consecutive teams from the other conference on a road trip. Sacramento has not faced three straight teams from the other conference, only one. So in all actuality, their upcoming game against the Sky would be considered a "B" bet and not a "D" or whatever the f*ck you guys have come up with in here.
The record is inaccurate for this experiment as a result of making EVERY road play a part of a series and counting it as a win. You were lucky, but this method is incorrect. Every road game is NOT a JM Play. And it also is unwise to buy 3 points in WNBA just because you feel like it. You would only need 1 point to work with at the most as you are killing yourself with vigorish for no reason. If you are playing with 3 extra points in WNBA basketball the only way that you will get great value is if you observe these two rules:
Only buy 3 points with a 5-8 point underdog OR a 13-8 point favorite . Then you would have the vlue that you desire. Just buying points just to be buying them is cutting your profits severely.
Stop doing this shit and get it together. Then re-intruouce it after you have done research from 3 previous years in the league. You can't make systems up on the fly and announce that it is the shit if you haven't done the appropriate footwork. You have NOT done the correct amount of research to announce that your system is going to work.Comment -
?Stop doing this shit and get it together. Then re-intruouce it after you have done research from 3 previous years in the league. You can't make systems up on the fly and announce that it is the shit if you haven't done the appropriate footwork. You have NOT done the correct amount of research to announce that your system is going to work.
i just backtracked it for 7 years. what more should i do? the jm version (only playing on 3 consecutive road games against the opposing conference) didn't lose a C bet in that time. 20-18-4-0
the cartytay system (playing all 3+ game road trips) seems to be consistently profitable. particularly if you filter out the first and last week of the season.Comment -
Did you just click this thread and decided to post whatever came to mind right away? If you read the whole thread you would have seen that Corona backtested the system and it has never lost. I agree with you that the true JM system play wouldnt have counted if Sacramento didnt play 3 cross-conference teams but the Cartytay system has shown to be profitable/successful as well, though to a lesser degree.Comment -
I guess he missed page one of this thread. Any ways it brings me to my point that I tried to make earlier. Since we missed the first 2 games of Sac's road trip we could treat yesterday like Game A and tomorrow game B if we desire. I don't think anybody is forcing anybody to bet these games so those who wish to do so go for it.Comment -
hello everybody
I am kind of new to the forum and never placed a bet on nba or wnba...i red your posts...but i don't understand too much...what is with this a, b c bets...what does push bet means...could someone walk me through the basics so I can at least understand what you guys are saying here?Comment -
its a 3 game chase system.
if you lose a bet, you double up on the next game. if you win the bet, you move on to the next 'series'
first bet is A
if you lose it, second bet is B....bet what you lost + what you set out to win.
if you lose that, third bet is C....combine B loss + A loss plus what you set out to win. if you lose that...you just lost a ton of units and need to start over. but theoretically this 'system' doesn't lose very often, so you should come out on top at the end of the season.
push just means you the game ended on exactly the line you chose. say you bet sacramento +8, and they lose by exactly 8. that's a push and the book doesn't take any money from you, and you don't get any money from the book.
if its your first time betting wnba/nba. i say just tail Ck/Sexymit/psylence, and watch the money roll in.Comment -
Hope you guys played Sac again last night! Made my money back plus a small profit....would have bet more but I was tied up in a bunch of other wagers too. But as I stated earlier I treated the game as a "B" bet and cashed. Little scary because I waited on the line and it dropped like a stone in water from like +8 to +4.5. But a winner is a winner. Onto the next one.Comment -
Thursday July 2nd
Connecticut +6.5 over Indiana - 3 units to win 2 units - probably wait this one out and see if the line moves in our favor more. already went from +3.5 to +4.5 at pinnacle.Comment -
Okay once again. Connecticut by JM rules would NOT be a play because it is an east vs east game. I am taking the Sun for much different reasons. Vincepcion is missing the point here and the only one who seems to get it is Hong Kong Phooey. You can't have hell of different opinions on what the JM system is. It just is what it is. You can't all of a sudden "make it okay to include road games in the SAME conference and call it a JM style of play. That couldn't be further from the truth. So if you're starting off with that f*cked up base, how can you go forward from that base and label the next play as an B or C, when you haven't even started off with a true A bet?Comment -
And secondly, if you guys buy three points for each of these games you will be cutting the hell out of your profits. -170 is a lot of vigorish to play this number of proposed games at, and you will go broke on a three game losing streak with two teams losing them simultaneously, especially when you take into account that guys are making watered down versions of JM plays. Do away with the inner conference games and then you'll hve something worth talking about. It's only part of this bullshit that has made sense to me.
Cut down on the amount of plays and potential for losses by only playing the pure ones.Comment -
i understand that, ck. it is a play under the 'cartytay' system though (playing all 3+ game road trips)...which was very profitable last season in the nba (149-1 with no filters)...and as i've shown through wnba backtesting, should by all accounts be profitable here too.Okay once again. Connecticut by JM rules would NOT be a play because it is an east vs east game.
that's what i'm doing here. i'll go light on the these interconference games because there has been a couple mid-season series losses in the past 7 season, and then heavier on the true jm plays because i haven't found a loss yet.Last edited by corona; 07-02-09, 02:08 AM.Comment -
I think everyone understands that "offical JM Plays" are only against out of conference teams. And if they don't they will now because it's been beat into their heads. We are just applying the concept of JM here. The thread is not called JM Plays. Honestly does it matter what it's called as long as it produces winners? Is'nt that the goal? Corona took the time and back track everything and it's up to the individual better to decide what they want to do. All the information is right there on the first page.Comment -
loss today makes it -3.5 units since starting.
Friday July 3rd gives us...
Chicago +8 over San Antonio - 5.25 units to win 3.5 units - will also put a side martingale bet on this starting at 1 unit, since its a true jm play (42-0-1 in the wnba as far back as i checked)Comment -
i dont think buying point is all that useful considering many games are not even close. men bball is alot different.
opps corrected a typo..Last edited by johncrud; 07-03-09, 02:44 AM.Comment -
You will be alright with Chicago, as I capped that gam to a "T". You don't need to buy points for this one. A hook will do the same thing as buying 2 pointsComment -
The JM system with NO filters will not work with this league. Bottomline, there is not enough games. For example, last year had 2 loses and so has this year so far. So it is mathematically impossible for you to recover from those 2 loses because their is only about 25-30 series a year. 1 loss equals about 19 wins....
(However, if you have not be involved with those loses this year might not be a bad time to follow the system, no season since 2000 has had more than 2 loses. Again with NO filters)
If you are going to do it, you better use the filters for this league. The numbers I got a month ago since 2000- with No filters and if there are 6or more away games, it includes playing games 4-6 of the roadtrip as a new series.
219 wins and 9 loses. 9 loses negate about 171 wins. Leaves you profiting from about 48 winning series since 2000. So, as usual, it depends on how much you are risking per series and you better have a nice bankroll to cover it because winning 100 a series does not seem worth the trouble.
Lets say this season keeps up with the previous and does not suffer more than 2 loses. By my count there is 23 series left in the season.Last edited by brooks85; 07-03-09, 09:43 AM.Comment -
where do you count two losses last season?
playing it cartytay, i count one (sacramento...they started off the trip with seattle...that means its not a jm play, and not a jm loss) and a push on a B bet for minnesota @ phoenix that would have lost on the C bet if you tried to keep playing it.
playing it true jm style, i can't find a series loss back to 2001 (and maybe longer...no data to check)
and like i mentioned before, over half the series losses that i've found overall occurred in the first week of each specific season. so that's clearly a filter, and we can't screw that up this season. i'd also filter out the last week or two of each season since i'm sure teams stop caring or have their seeds wrapped up.
i'm trying not to be rude here....but i don't understand where the continued opposition is coming from.
i've layed out all the data, i've said multiple times that without filters it should be marginally profitable (which you agree on...48 wins since 2000), playing it true jm style hasn't lost a series that i can find and thus we should go heavier on those games, and with a couple easy filters (no plays in first week of season, don't play series that have the olympics in the middle of them, don't play on worst road team)...it'll offer very good profits. and if we use those filters and play it labouchere, it should be even better.
what's the problem?Comment -
i dont think there is a problem. I just follow the series and pick my spots. And also, i did not double check my numbers so definitely could be a miss in there.
Im just saying following this league with no filters, tho profitable, is not worth much the risk to me. But, i still follow it and I loss a bet on sac last C game. Tho it was a loss, i didn't bet game A or game B so it was fine with me. And with the filters as you showed, there is no loss's and that is definitely fine with me, even if I only get 15 series a season or so.Comment -
corona-- "don't play series that have the olympics in the middle of them" what you mean by this? isn't the olympics is long over??
can you also find out that if you don't buy any points, what is the record for the past seasons?
went back and checked. in fact there were two losses thus far: la sparks and sac. with filtering, this season is flawless. sac has a shit ass record and la sparks playing on the road their first week. adding to that, i believe it is safe to play every series without buying any points. each loss would be 8 units. if you buy +3 points, it will be 18 units.
Very effective filtering
1. avoid any team below the percentage of .400
2. avoid worst road record (haven't won on the road before)
3. filter out the first week or two.Last edited by johncrud; 07-03-09, 10:47 PM.Comment -
i didn't check the record for not buying points. may do it tomorrow for the heck of it.
summer olympics happen every 4 years, and the fiba world championships happen every 4 years too.
so every 2 years, the wnba season has to be broken apart by 3-4 weeks so the girls can go play for their respective countries. this is an off year, so it doesn't apply now...but if we're looking towards looking towards playing this system in the future, there's fiba in the summer of 2010.
if a series is cut in two by a month because of that, then we shouldn't play it. goes by the same idea of people not playing systems around the nba all-star break, because trends get whacky. and a past series has lost in that scenario. (iirc, first 2 games were played in late august, 3rd game was playing at the end of september)Comment -
it looks like we have discovered a good system here.
we can make a hefty sum of profit if we use both this system and jm mlb. save all the handicapping work or trying to tail someone else..
i came up with another idea--instead of playing road team, we can go for home team. noticed how they tend to lose alot on the road and most of the time their wins come from home court. I backtracked this home system and found it to be as stable as the road system. It might even be more effective because I am chasing with the help of home court advantage.
here is a novel idea. I an planning to chase the first game at home, and if it wins I can chase the next two games on the road. Vice versa. Now I can profit two ways.Last edited by johncrud; 07-04-09, 12:26 AM.Comment -
its not like the books don't adjust to homecourt advantage though.
home teams in the wnba won't finish the season winning 65% ATS. in fact i'm pretty darn sure that if you combine the ats stats since 1997 (wnbas first season), home teams would win between 49% and 51% of the time. and any single season won't deviate more than a handful of percentage points.
so i don't see how an advantage is gained.
in fact at this point in the season its to our advantage to play on road teams since home teams have such a large ats advantage over the first month. the books will even that out by giving road teams slightly better lines, which favors a road-team-based system.
and to expand upon any homecourt advantage idea (i've seen it mentioned at least a dozen times in reference to the wnba....as if its a bigger factor than other sports)...
in the past 6 seasons that i checked, home court in the wnba is 838-536 SU. that's a 61% win rate. no single season went over 64.7%. this season they're winning at a 71% clip. will they out-of-nowhere deviate 10% from the average for an entire season? it's basically a lock that they won't - thus it continues to benefit us to bet on road teams.
and fwiw, in that same time span in the nba, the men win at a 60.4% rate
at home....that's a negligible difference.Last edited by corona; 07-04-09, 01:36 AM.Comment
