Wnba system 5-0 this year

**linglingfool** · 08-15-09, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

LA won... "7/9 LOS ANGELES, vs. New York; Washington; Connecticut (Series has ended. Won at the [A] bet.)"

First week of the season was back in June -- that's not the entire season schedule.

**SportsTerminator** · 08-15-09, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

LA won... "7/9 LOS ANGELES, vs. New York; Washington; Connecticut (Series has ended. Won at the [A] bet.)"

Originally posted by linglingfool

First week of the season was back in June -- that's not the entire season schedule.

Oh okay my fault.

**johncrud** · 08-15-09, 08:10 PM

damn yo.... [c] next game.. good thing this series fits the true JM system and the past record shows it has yet to lose. I am pounding the early lines since it is going to move rapidly.

**Olle** · 08-15-09, 08:15 PM

**linglingfool** · 08-15-09, 08:56 PM

The Lynx shitting themselves in the 2nd quarter was another killer tonight.

**tornadosoul7** · 08-15-09, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by Olle

Great system, looks like 0-2 tonight.

**SportsTerminator** · 08-15-09, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by linglingfool

First week of the season was back in June -- that's not the entire season schedule.

Originally posted by johncrud

damn yo.... [c] next game.. good thing this series fits the true JM system and the past record shows it has yet to lose. I am pounding the early lines since it is going to move rapidly.

All in lol jk.

**linglingfool** · 08-15-09, 09:08 PM

Wow. Minny hits 5 3s in the last 2 minutes for a nice backdoor.

**corona** · 08-15-09, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by tornadosoul7

Great system, looks like 0-2 tonight.

1-1

its not about 1 day, its about a whole season.

**Olle** · 08-15-09, 09:16 PM

I hate c bets, making me nervous . . .

**GbgBets** · 08-15-09, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Olle

I hate c bets, making me nervous . . .

tRUE THAT =) Damn.

**Nickelicious** · 08-16-09, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by jalein

I have a tremendous amount of respect of several cappers on this sight. I enjoy reading and learning about trends, reverse movemet etc.

As far as JM is concerned? The facts are the facts. The dude may be cocky but he is MONEY. Once this year have I gone to a "C" bet in MLB and lost. I lost a grip on the NYY/Minn series. EVERY OTHER series bet has won. The only real issue with making money with JM is the discipline NOT to overbet each series. Stick with the numbers and make sure you have the money to make the B and C bets without hesitation or reservation. I have enough of a roll to have started at $500 per series bet. Now I am up to betting $800 per series bet and I am up 5 figures in a few months. There are two bets today. One is a B bet and the other is an A bet and I am betting them both. I can set my financial watch by this guy. No need to fix what aint broke. Do with that what you want. This guy is gonna pay off my house.

Here is what I wrote in the JM system MLB thread (where we also chat about the WNBA system):

Originally posted by Nickelicious

The fact that the Atlanta Dream won tonight really helps our play. The Dream haven't lost two in a row at home all season, much less three. The Storm have now lost three of four for the first time this season. I don't expect they will make it four of five. They were 3rd in the WNBA Power Rankings this week. But the Dream should still be 5 to 7 point favorites in this B Bet. That means we get 8 to 10.

Strong advice: jump on the Storm with the 3 points AS SOON AS POSSIBLE after the line comes out Friday.

The irony here is that I think my line of 5 to 7 points was about right (as shown by the final score). As I wrote in CK's and sexymit's WNBA thread:

I really expected Seattle to be about a 5-point dog in this game, but they opened at 3 and system plays moved it down from there. The system has been money, and I'm on it tonight, but it makes me queasy thinking about it. I wish JM had never got a hold of it and spread it all over the world. Too damn popular for its own good and eventually it will collapse in on itself. The other systems (MLB, NBA, NFL) have enough volume to absorb this heavy play (especially NFL), but the WNBA does not.

And now we are staring into the face of a C bet. As I've said before, if you're going to play the system, play it to the letter. But we know there are people who are going to be bailing out on the C bet and absorbing an A & B bet loss. I'm not doing that. I hope to build the dent in my bankroll with a nice A bet on the Cubs on Monday and then cash the C bet on Tuesday with the Storm.

The problem? It's these damn lines. Seattle plays at Detroit next and they should probably be a 1 or 2 point favorite on the road. That's the kind of game where you can get away with not buying 3 points because if they are a two-point favorite all you are buying with three points is a push if they lose by one point. With a two-point favorite you could just as easily buy 1 1/2 points and be in the essentially the same position.

But I'm guessing the line won't open at 1 or 2 points on Monday. It will open at 3 or 4 and go up very quickly to 5 or 6. So you have to buy the three points to protect yourself.

I'm not bitching about buying the points, though. I'm bitching about the JM WNBA system affecting the lines offered at books. It's getting to be weighted so far to the other side that the system is bound to experience a C bet loss sooner than later (probably by a heartbreaking single point or two). You can't blame the books for what they're doing. They're just adjusting the line to meet the incoming wagers. Since they know what is going to happen on a JM system WNBA play, they have to account for that even before issuing the opening line. Not just BetUs. But every book.

I am riding with the Storm on Tuesday. But the way things are going, it will soon be smarter to buy the three points on the opposing teams and run the chase on them (similar to what we have done with unofficial MLB plays).

**dukipl** · 08-16-09, 01:55 AM

that is true Nickelicious

**johnnie** · 08-16-09, 04:37 AM

Detroit series is over...

First of all i would like to say thanks to nickelicious, corona and the terminator for the valuable information posted, as you guys can see i do not post at all and my english is not that good, i am sorry. i just wanna say that Detroit wasn't a B or C bet, it was"officially" over as a [A] bet.

BetUS which is the WORST sportsbook ever offered +4 and with 3 points bought it was +7 and the series was over.

I haven't read nobody talking about that so i felt like i should tell you guys about it. Anyway, good luck on chasing C bet.

**jalein** · 08-16-09, 07:57 AM

Excellent post Nick!

I agree with most of it to the letter. As I have actually started to really understand betting and bank roll management, I have started to embrace the "timing" of the JM system. The Seattle bet last night was a darn good example. My book had a 2 point swing in the line from the time it opened til tip off. If you understand trends and line movement, one could have gotten free juice on the Seattle game. There will be times when it just doesnt make sense to buy 3 points based on the spread. I really liked the point you made in this respect. If you have the roll and are truly committed, when it is not advantageous to buy 3 points because of where the line is, you can just as easily take that 70 points of juice and add that to the baseline bet for that particular series knowing that the system bet has not failed in the WNBA through the "C" bet. The unwritten/unspoken concern is that the books are every bit as aware of the JM system as we are. They are playing a very deliberate game of cat and mouse with this system and the general public. The books simply cant do blanket compensations in lines for the JM system because JM bettors are in the minority, but.....they can have 2-3 point swings in lines from opening to tip off just to play havock. and that is where the timing and understanding of line movement can be a tremendous advantage and can preserve profit.

**zlikir** · 08-16-09, 08:46 AM

Does anyone know around what swedish time the lines will be released for the C bet?

**corona** · 08-17-09, 12:37 PM

seattle opened as a 1.5 point dog.

will be interesting to see how this line moves.

also note that washington's a play @ the sparks on tuesday as well.

**greenrolls** · 08-17-09, 01:24 PM

Line is already at -1

Seattle just moved to -1...

line is moving fast! was +1 10 minutes ago

**corona** · 08-17-09, 01:42 PM

opened at +2 at bookmaker. in 25 minutes it moved to -1

fuuuuuuu

**brooks85** · 08-17-09, 02:41 PM

yea im in the same boat. 2 of the books im chasing at dont even release their lines for till tomorrow morning. I might be eating the A B loss.

**zlikir** · 08-17-09, 03:06 PM

I can only buy 1 point on Pinnacle, how do I buy 3? Quick replies are appreciated.

**rezkoness69** · 08-17-09, 03:47 PM

so for tomorrow, Seattle is a C bet and washington an A, correct? I'm just trying to make sure I understand the system. Is buying 3 points really advantageous in A, B, and C bets?

**zlikir** · 08-17-09, 03:55 PM

Just got an answer from Pinnacle, they said you can't buy 3 points there, what a shame!
Guess I'm waiting for BetUS to release their lines... anyone know at what time they usually release them?

**corona** · 08-17-09, 05:55 PM

yes, rezkoness, it is advantageous to buy the 3 points on all series bets.

zlikir....you're gonna get ****ed by betus on the line because they're buddybuddys with john morrison. it'll probably be -2 or -3 seattle. in which cause you're probably better off leaving the whole thing alone, or buy the 1 point at pinnacle.

**Nickelicious** · 08-17-09, 09:19 PM

It's already -2 at WSEX and 5dimes, so BetUs will probably open at -3. Whatever the case, I am only buying it down to -1.5. WSEX doesn't offer point buys on WNBA (at least not for me).

**brooks85** · 08-17-09, 09:41 PM

ya going to be interesting to see what line betus releases. They have me on their jm list so I lose 1-2 pts.

**brooks85** · 08-17-09, 09:50 PM

.

**SexyMit** · 08-18-09, 05:35 AM

With 99% being on Seattle, I have a bad feeling the JM (c) bet is in trouble. I don't see Vegas losing on this opportunity to make a killing off Seattle losing! But however GL!

**zlikir** · 08-18-09, 05:39 AM

Originally posted by corona

yes, rezkoness, it is advantageous to buy the 3 points on all series bets.

zlikir....you're gonna get ****ed by betus on the line because they're buddybuddys with john morrison. it'll probably be -2 or -3 seattle. in which cause you're probably better off leaving the whole thing alone, or buy the 1 point at pinnacle.

I guess I'm forced to play the WNBA/NBA bets on another book, which one is the best for a swede to use?
It sucks that I have to wait for the next MLB season to start before I can wager enough for a cashout from betus

**GGPLAYER** · 08-18-09, 09:03 AM

For the first time I am at a loss on what to do tonight. The fact that the books have caught onto this JM style of betting has really thrown a new element into the mix. Seattle's poor play has not help either. Normally my faith is strong but when conditions change sometimes you have to change with them. I may skip the rest of the JM plays this year because of these developments. No sense in losing what I have built up over the last 2 months if the books are going to make it impossible for this system to work.

**johncrud** · 08-18-09, 09:28 AM

Right on the dot.... If the bookies are going to do it for wnba, you are probably using the same tactic to defeat JM system users for NBA too. MLB regardless of the juice is the only system that works perfectly. One day, the books might screw the JM system users on a [C] bet by giving out a line like -300 which was normally a -200 line. I know it is going to happen one of these days

I could of had a +5 pt spread but now I have to settle for a ML win. I am currently using a custom chase system.. I believed it is just as good as the JM system and you don't need to play +1.5 RL. Still using RPI filtering and all that but just a different approach..

Popular systems=bad consequence. bookies will skew the lines as well as limit your wagering amount.
if a system like mines or others don't get spread out to the public, then the lines are still normal.

**samplesdsg** · 08-18-09, 11:14 AM

I am by FAR an inexperienced bettor. I know very little about lines moving, etc. However, as long as I've been wagering, most books that allow you to purchase an additional 3 points run the line to -170 for that privilege. At Betus (I know) to buy 3 points on this game is now at -205. Betjamica has -180 for a 3-point purchase on this game. This is in addition to the odds moving to make Seattle the favorite.

I know it goes against the system, and second guessing has always gotten me a loss, but with Det now at +4, and the purchase of 3 points is -155, does anyone think there is value here by reversing the C pick and playing DET +7?

**corona** · 08-18-09, 11:36 AM

^ i'm honestly thinking about hedging my wager at this point.

got seattle +3 for -195 yesterday. now if i wait a little more i should be able to get detroit +4 for -110. worst case is i lose the juice on the -195. best case is i hit it both ways (5 point middle).

**johncrud** · 08-18-09, 11:44 AM

lol the line moved like 5.5 points since yesterday.. man I never seen anything like that..

I am giving the system today to prove that it still works. if it didn't fail the last several years, why should it fail today. unless you got ref rigging the game. if the system fails today, then i am done with wnba for now.

the last 10 games, the closest winning margin was only by 3 points. there is still room for victory

**kengarou** · 08-18-09, 01:38 PM

No matter ,how difficult things are to bear, we shall always remian positive about JM, I do believe the C bet for Seattle will go through , hang on guys, because we are going for a hell of a ride on this wager. Seattle, go go go! Hope for a dramatic finish and a win for the C bet.