WNBA Dating Tips

JumpoffJoeBeezy · 07-14-09, 04:32 AM

Like the over for tomorrows game. Any chance LAS wins outright?

RoagBettor · 07-14-09, 07:54 AM

Sparks back to +4 on Bookmaker and the o/u dropped to 142.

RoagBettor · 07-14-09, 07:59 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at Bettracker it seems the line opened up at -5 with about 90% of the public on Connecticut, and it went down to -4.

70% is on Connecticut and the line has held at 4 (and last night went to 3.5 on Bookmaker).

Is this right?

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 09:02 AM

Sexymit,

It is abundantly clear that the only play for today for us that we agree upon is to take the Sparks and get it now while it is still at 4. A line move to 5 is essentially the same number as it would still mean that Conecticut would have to win by 6 in order for tickets to move. I feel that this is an excellent number to play the game at. There is no way that the number will go to 6 on it's own with reverse movment going on already. I will be out and about on the town today hitting the beach and grilling things for the Missus and the kids. I think that there's not better time than now to make this play. The number is down to 3.5 on some books. I don't wish to make playing this game at 3.5 our only option

Project Pick

Sparks+4 -110 $550.00 to win $500.00 2 units

Let's keep this new streak going! There's plenty of money to be made this week.

oda11 · 07-14-09, 09:31 AM

07/14/2009 Day 37
Day Starting Bankroll - $5251.50

Project Pick:
Sparks+4 -110 $550.00 to win $500.00 2 units

WNBA Dating Tips Record 26 - 15 -0

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-14-09, 09:40 AM

GL everyone, my play is:

Connecticut (-4) over Los Angeles

Los Angeles has lost 22 of the last 30 games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games against the spread vs. Connecticut. Los Angeles has lost 6 of the last 7 road games and they are only averaging 66 points a game in all road games this season.

RoagBettor · 07-14-09, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by MILEHIGHMONSTERS

GL everyone, my play is:

Connecticut (-4) over Los Angeles

Los Angeles has lost 22 of the last 30 games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games against the spread vs. Connecticut. Los Angeles has lost 6 of the last 7 road games and they are only averaging 66 points a game in all road games this season.

You are thinking like the public, but good luck.

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-14-09, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

You are thinking like the public, but good luck.

and who are the sparks backers thinking like?

RoagBettor · 07-14-09, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by MILEHIGHMONSTERS

and who are the sparks backers thinking like?

Cocknocker and SexyMit, masters of line movement!

PortsDave · 07-14-09, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by MILEHIGHMONSTERS

GL everyone, my play is:

Connecticut (-4) over Los Angeles

Los Angeles has lost 22 of the last 30 games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games against the spread vs. Connecticut. Los Angeles has lost 6 of the last 7 road games and they are only averaging 66 points a game in all road games this season.

Fading the Project Play in this thread isn't a cool thing to do.

oda11 · 07-14-09, 09:53 AM

Wow, under went to 141 already with the public on the over.

Tennispro · 07-14-09, 09:56 AM

Srry Roag i am also on Connecticut Sun cant find any advantages for LA Sparks tonight, don't know why CK likes them tonight.
In 2008 Connecticut killed the Sparks at home and played in OT and lost in LA so they match up good against LA and they just lost 2 games in a row with the last one being an OT so they must be fired up to win this one, while LA hmmm they still got problems with scoring and the chemistry is still not there, just giving my 2 cents gl all.

Panekkkk · 07-14-09, 10:07 AM

Majority of the public on the over and it has dipped back down to 140.5 ... I want to take the over but can't justify it with the RLM. Both teams have been great defensibly but they are both desparate for a win here. That usually opens the game up and means a lot of buckets will fall.

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-14-09, 10:11 AM

Stickin with the project pick. O/U can go both ways. If you guys arent sure, just wait for 2H

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 10:31 AM

Strange but true...

With a horrid 3-10 record and a change at coach prior to the All Star Break, the Sacramento Monarchs made a steam move from +3000 to +1200 from out of nowhere for odds to win the WNBA Championship on a book that I use. This is significant because the lines for the Sun (+2500), Mystics (+4000), and Liberty (+3000) are higher despite the fact that those teams have much better records. Sacramento has the 2nd worst margin in the WNBA. I'm telling y'all this guy is lights out. Gonna have to start putting more consideration into wagering with the Monarchs. The funny thing about WNBA wagering is that no matter how good or bad teams are, by the end of the season all teams will have around .500 ats records; even teams that start the year off bad ats wise. This movement alone tells me that he is gonna restore order and Sacramento is going to be a handfull for the league from here on out. Out of respect for my confidants, I cannot reveal the name of this particular book.

Anyway I was going to put some more money on the a couple of teams including the Fever to win it all at +600 if anyone is interested. SO enough about that, here's what I did...

Fever+600 (Biggest bet)
Mercury+600 (2nd Biggest bet)
Storm+700 (Degenerate bet. They don't stand a chance unless they have home court)

oda11 · 07-14-09, 10:37 AM

LOL, too bad my book doesn't even offer WNBA futures... Good luck today CK.

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 10:40 AM

If any people can get the Monarchs to start covering from out of nowhere, the Maloof brothers can get it done! Never forget that...

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-14-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by PortsDave

Fading the Project Play in this thread isn't a cool thing to do.

I was just posting my play, nothing personal. I thought CK allowed others to post their plays in the thread. if not CK let me know.

Panekkkk · 07-14-09, 11:03 AM

Lines are up:

Monarchs +7

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 11:11 AM

Very interesting that the line for Indiana over Chicago is 10. I came up with 14.5 This game is gonnabe a blowout. Chalk will make you choke if you can't handle it! This one is all systems go! Blowout City Bay-beee!

dreamjob · 07-14-09, 11:26 AM

I just got the sparks at +5

Panekkkk · 07-14-09, 11:27 AM

CK where is the RLM for the Sparks game? Much of the public on CON and the line moved -2.5 to -4 at some books and from -4 to -4.5 at big books like Pinny. The odds reversed somewhat but very little (-4 at -102 up to -106 then down to -101).

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:30 AM

Sparks at +5 on 5dimes

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-14-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by xXxBallin21xXx

i think the line might go up for sparks, so i'll wait till it goes +5, hopefully

there it is. Booked +5, 1 unit

actionaddict86 · 07-14-09, 11:48 AM

any value taking sparks money line at +180?

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

CK where is the RLM for the Sparks game? Much of the public on CON and the line moved -2.5 to -4 at some books and from -4 to -4.5 at big books like Pinny. The odds reversed somewhat but very little (-4 at -102 up to -106 then down to -101).

The line was offered at -5 on Pinnacle as the opening off shore line and is now working it's way slowly back down the 4 we will see at gametime. (I am going by what I saw, not what is being reported by individuals on this thread.) Then the line opened at LVSC as a -3, and then is at -4 right now. So that right there is conflicting line movement by two sources. It all depends upon which source you want to quote for the line movement as far as it either being thought of as reverse or as appropriate. Which source can you believe? That's up to you.

However, if you rewind to my first comments about this game (prior to it being offered a line)with respect to projections what number did I give? I'll tell you...I gave the same identical numbers people are trying to talk me off of now. So I was already prepared to take the Sparks at this number long before the public even had the spread in their hands. If Connecticut wins this game it won't be by more than 2 points.

I am more than fine with the 4. No need for the hook, but if a bettor is able to get the hook, then more power to them

RoagBettor · 07-14-09, 02:23 PM

If I was a hot chick...

Panekkkk · 07-14-09, 02:32 PM

Thanks for the writeup CK. Any thoughts on the CHI game. You seemed to indicate it would be a blowout but Sexy mentioned in a previous comment that it's set up perfectly to take CHI + the points cuz of the home-and-home rivalry thing.

SportsTerminator · 07-14-09, 02:33 PM

Hoopsedge has Connecticut -4.0 for 1 unit like that matters though lol... free pick of the week... I guess they moved the line to -4.5...

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 02:41 PM

Someone asked me if I mind a person putting a contradictory pick on the thread. The answer is no not at all. But truthfully, the question deserves no answer, especially when a person is backing a team that is one of the all time worst favorites in the WNBA history.

That team is a horrid 17-34 ats as a favorite. And if anyone wants to back them as a play against the Sparks, then so be it. I can't play favorites like that especially when joining over 70% of the joe's. I'm placing my money with the books and taking the team that looks like they don't have a chance of covering in this game.

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Thanks for the writeup CK. Any thoughts on the CHI game. You seemed to indicate it would be a blowout but Sexy mentioned in a previous comment that it's set up perfectly to take CHI + the points cuz of the home-and-home rivalry thing.

I feel him on that. But we are different when it comes to taking long chalk. I say that the talent difference is so big between these teams that it wouldn't matter if the game were played with a deflated basketball. The math is actually very simple. Indiana has the best margin in the league, and Chicago has the worst. The 10 point spread for Indiana is a gift. I say that they win that game by 16 points with ease. If we disagree on this one, I will be playing it as a Suburb Play. No way will I miss this opportunity to pick up that money. The Fevers are on their way to a championship

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Someone asked me if I mind a person putting a contradictory pick on the thread. The answer is no not at all. But truthfully, the question deserves no answer, especially when a person is backing a team that is one of the all time worst favorites in the WNBA history.

That team is a horrid 17-34 ats as a favorite. And if anyone wants to back them as a play against the Sparks, then so be it. I can't play favorites like that especially when joining over 70% of the joe's. I'm placing my money with the books and taking the team that looks like they don't have a chance of covering in this game.

Beautiful..

How do you feel about the Sparks 1st half play?

oda11 · 07-14-09, 02:58 PM

Does anyone have the consensus number on the over/under? Most are on the over according to wagerline but it's a small sample size. The line has been slowly dropping to now 140.5.

cocknocker · 07-14-09, 03:20 PM

No 1st half. Game only

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-14-09, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Someone asked me if I mind a person putting a contradictory pick on the thread. The answer is no not at all. But truthfully, the question deserves no answer, especially when a person is backing a team that is one of the all time worst favorites in the WNBA history.

That team is a horrid 17-34 ats as a favorite. And if anyone wants to back them as a play against the Sparks, then so be it. I can't play favorites like that especially when joining over 70% of the joe's. I'm placing my money with the books and taking the team that looks like they don't have a chance of covering in this game.