HoulihansTX's WNBA Breakdown for 2009

[HoulihansTX]

Fellas the WNBA is the most unwatchable Womens sport on planet earth. I watched it rarely its inaugural season, then forgot it even existed. But don't worry fellas we don't have to watch a game this season, b/c not even the sportbooks spend time doing that..... Luckily.

The Reason the forum has been calling the WNBA an ATM is, b/c this sport is the least bet of all the sports. So the Sportsbooks set soft(inviting) lines to encourage the public(square) bettors. Also the Sportsbooks don't research the WNBA at the level they do NFL or NBA. So this gives anyone who is willing to spend the adequate amount of time researching, a huge advantage over the books.

In other words it's like trying to buy something on EBay. It is impossible to get a deal on EBay, b/c the whole world is bidding on the same items. Therefore it's impossible to get a deal, leading to all items being at fair market price due to EBay being widely used. Now that's NFL, and NBA.

The WNBA is the Garage Sell of all betting forums. There is not a huge amount of interested bettors comparatively, so those who get their first can get deals before line movement. And the sellers at the garage sells, b/c they have limited customers, have to offer low prices in order to attract customers. Or in other words, "Soft" lines by the bookies.

[HoulihansTX]

Excuse my leaving out teams or betting info. I was not able to find a site that had a database betting info for the prior seasons. See what I mean about lack of research. Anyways... the WNAB site is horrid also. It lacks analysis for the upcoming season, depth charts, or epxectations for individual teams. I just bootlegged some crack research from ESPN.com. I looked over the present state of teams, and overall records for the prior 3 seasons.


WNBA Breakdown 2009


Western Conference

Phoenix Mercury - Made playoffs each of the 4 years it has won its opener. Finished 9th in '06 (18-16) / 2nd in '07 (23-11) / Tied 9th in '08 (16-18) Home(10-7) Road(6-11). Injuries to stars hurt them last year. Got gift at 5th pick 6'4 F Dewanna Bonner(Impact Player) This teams has the makings to be best in WNBA. Best player: Diana Taurasi

Sacramento Monarchs - Picked up 7th pick 6'4 F Courtney Paris(Overrated). Finished 4th in '06 (21-13) / 5th in '07 (19-15) / 6th in '08 (18-16) Home(13-4) Road(5-12)

Seattle Storm - Has Lauren Jackson 2x MVP. 6th in '06 (18-16) / 7th in '07 (17-17) / 2nd in '08 (22-12) Home(16-1) Road(6-11).

LA Sparks - Loaded w/ talent. Lisa Lesile's team. Candace Parker(MVP) won't play until July(Maternity). Favorite to win the title, according to a survey of WNBA GM's. 2nd in '06 (25-6) / 13th in '07 (10-24) / 4th in '08 (20-14) Home(12-5) Road(8-9).

San Antonio Silver Stars - Best player: Becky Hammond G. 10th in '06 (13-21) / 4th in '07 (20-14) / 1st in '08 (24-10) Home(15-2) Road(9-8).

Minnesota Lynx - All-Star Seimone Augustus is only remaining player from last years team. Through draft and trades team has new young talent. Picked up 4th pick G Renee Washington from UConn(Impact Player). New Coach. 12th in '06 (10-24), 12th in '07 / (10-24) / Tied for 9th in '08 (16-18) Home(9-8) Road(7-10).

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Dream - Got No. 1 Pick 6'1 F Angel McCoughtry(Impact Player). 2nd year franchise/Expansion Team. Lack Chemistry. PICKED UP CHAMIQUE HOLDSCLAW who unretired. Holdsclaw was Top-5 the league until leaving two years ago to play in Poland. This team should be a playoff team, or at least much better than last year. Due to there recent additions. 13th in '08 (4-30) Home(1-16) Road(3-14).

Detroit Shock - Former Champs. Missing three players(Cheryl Ford ACL/ Broxton 6 game suspension for DUI(4 games left) / Plenett Pierson Out for Season). 3rd in '06 (23-11) / 1st in '07 (24-10) / 2nd in '08 (22-12) Home(14-3) Road(8-9).

Washington Mystics - 2nd pick in draft G Marissa Coleman(Impact Player), she is also their best player. That isn't a good sign. Team lacks talent. 6th in '06 (18-16) / 8th in '07 (16-18) / 12th in '08 (10-24) Home(6-11) Road(4-13).

Chicago Sky - Signed 6'5 Chinese Center Nah. Best player, 6'6 C Sylvia Fowles, went down early last season with Injury. Young teams w/ talent. 13th in '06 (5-29) / 10th in '07 (14-20) / 11th in '08 (12-22) Home(8-9) Road(4-13)

Conneticut Sun - Have gone to playoffs last three seasons. 1st in '06 (26-8) / 6th in '07 (18-16) / 3rd in '08 (21-13) Home(13-4) Road(8-9).

Indiana Fever - Signed two All-Stars at beginning of season. Expect them to bounce back this season. Have lost to the Shock in the playoffs for the past 3 seasons. 4th in '06 (21-13) / 3rd in '07 (21-13) / 7th in '08 (17-17) Home(11-6) Road(6-11).

New York Liberty - Youngest team in league. Should pass Detroit Shock up, for one of the top regular season records. Good Team. No change in roster. 11th in '06 (11-23) / 8th in '07 (16-18) / 5th in '08 (19-15) Home(11-6) Road(8-9).

[pho3nix32]

Houston Comets - 6th in '06 (18-16) / 11th in '07 (13-21) / 7th in '08 (17-17) Home(13-4) Road(4-13).

there is no more houston comets my friend

for tomorrow:

line: min@ind 149.5
pick: 149.5 over

They Lynx are quite similar to the Mercury. Score first, and then score more. Wiggins and Augustus are heavy gunners. As for the Fever, players are getting old and they are not what they are used to be defensive-wise. Back to back games for both clubs. The more I believe there will be less D in this game.

[HoulihansTX]

All of these teams are suspect on the road.

Betting on Home teams, especially favorites, looks like $$$$$$.

I'm going to treat B2B's just like NBA... Fade 'em.


My early East playoff teams.... Indiana Fever/ New York Liberty/ Connecticut Suns

My early West playoff teams.... Phoenix Mercury/ LA Sparks/ San Antonio Silver Stars

My team that will be Undervalued during first part of season.... Atlanta Dream.

My team to fade for the beginning of season.... Detroit Shock

Also I'm not betting any more than $50 a play until the WNBA season is a few weeks old. Many times I will just parlay my plays in order to play it safe until I'm able to get a better hold of the league.

Feel free to add to this. I'm all for criticisms, slants, insults, or . Have at it

[HoulihansTX]

there is no more houston comets my friend

No wonder I couldnt find anything about them.

[HoulihansTX]

6/5
LA Sparks -4.5 W
Mercury -2 W

These teams have some of the best players in the league. I'm just going to parlay this for $40, until I get a feel for the WNBA. I heard it's easy money due to soft lines, b/c the books are trying to attract bettors.

.

[HoulihansTX]

6/7
New York -3 L
Indiana Fever -7.5 L
Atlanta +4.5 L

Add: ATL ML +220 L

Total Shit day. On to tomorrow

[theplagy]

ATL moved to 5.5

[SportsTerminator]

I'm liking Washington...

[HoulihansTX]

ATL moved to 5.5

I bought my ticket to early. I'm on the wrong side of the line movement, but I think those who are on Washington are buying in to the wrong team.

I'm liking Washington...

I hope you got them last nite, for a 1.5 lower than they are now.

-4.5 last nite... -6 now.

[HoulihansTX]

6/7
New York -3
Indiana Fever -7.5
Atlanta +4.5

line movement since I bought these tickets
These lines are now.....
New York -3.5
ATL Dream +6
Indiana Fever -5.5

I know it looks like I jumped the gun. Maybe I did, but I still like to get the opening lines, before the lines become sharper due to incoming bets.

[HoulihansTX]

6/8
LA Sparks PK

[pho3nix32]

there is no more houston comets my friend

for tomorrow:

line: min@ind 149.5
pick: 149.5 over

They Lynx are quite similar to the Mercury. Score first, and then score more. Wiggins and Augustus are heavy gunners. As for the Fever, players are getting old and they are not what they are used to be defensive-wise. Back to back games for both clubs. The more I believe there will be less D in this game.

[RoagBettor]

Connecticut gets thrashed at home in their opener, then they come back today and thrash NY (costing me a LOT of money).

LA easily handles Detroit in LA. Is there any reason to think Detroit can win this game in Detroit?

[HoulihansTX]

Connecticut gets thrashed at home in their opener, then they come back today and thrash NY (costing me a LOT of money).

LA easily handles Detroit in LA. Is there any reason to think Detroit can win this game in Detroit?

Detroit is on their last leg, with three starter out due to suspensions, and injuries. Spark are loaded even with Parker out. Spark by a mile. In the WNBA talent is hard to find, so when you are lacking a portion of it you can go from Good to bad quickly.
Sparks get my money. Luckily I jumped on them when it was at a PK

[peeiempee]

HTX, lines at -4 now. Take the 1st half or no play?

[HoulihansTX]

HTX, lines at -4 now. Take the 1st half or no play?

I'd play both. Detroit just got beat by 20 yesterday, by the same team. I dont think going home makes up for 20 points.

[texhooper]

i haven't yet played a wnba game, but seattle, i think it was, whoever had the big spread today, i saw that it opened at pinnacle at -3 and jumped to 8. thought about playing it at -7.5, and it would have covered. i might just take the biggest line shift each day and just play it solely. no totals or anything just the biggest line move. i wonder how that would do...only one way to find out. tex hooper is about to conduct an experiment.

[HoulihansTX]

^^^^^ Start a thread so we can track it, and we can all make money. I'm in the early stages of figuring out this league. like I said at the top, I'm parlaying may plays until I become more confident in my feel for the league, then I'll play them straight.

[peeiempee]

Well I tracked the Over/Unders. It went 3-1 taking the swing of the line the opposite way. They move the line up, take the over. They move it down, take the under. I thought the Seattle/Sac game should of been under, but they just shot lights out

[HoulihansTX]

I like that theory pimp. But I wonder if the books continue to move the line at such a rate throughout the whole season? You would think they get a hold of the lines by mid- to late season? Might as well milk it while the going gets good.

[texhooper]

houlihans, i started a thread. we'll see how the lines are dealt with. i'm game to play it one game at a time during baseball season, and if it works, it works, and if it doesn't, it doesn't.

i've got degen friends who wouldn't touch the wnba. i bet the lines don't get any sharper throughout the season. those who will play will play, and those who won't won't.

[peeiempee]

Cool texh, but if they are degens they should have no problem with the wnba

[texhooper]

they're not true degens like us...gotta have action, but won't stoop to the wnba. we're degens who think one day we're gonna figure it out and make money from it. totally different.

[HoulihansTX]

6/8
LA Sparks PK L

Anybody seeing this WNBA Score. Sparks win by 20 saturday. Now are losing by 20 to the same team. I just checked this and had to check and see if it was real. Wow home court in WNBA is like college sports.

[StyleQ]

Yup - its pretty unreal. Good thing I bet the under.

[HoulihansTX]

Opening Home Attendance Numbers...

Sacramento -14,900
Detroit - 14,000
Phoenix -13,600
New York - 13,300
Los Angeles - 13,200
Washington - 13,000
Indiana - 10,000
Seattle - 9,700
Atlanta -8,700
Minnesota -8,700
Connecticut - 7,200
Chicago - N/A
San Antonio - N/A

This should be an indicator of overall fan support, and what their home court strength should be. Lets see.

[peeiempee]

No wonder CK says Sac is money at home, wow 14900 compared to 7200

[corona]

people in sacramento really must have nothing to do.

is there not a movie theater, mall, or ihop in that town?

[HoulihansTX]

people in sacramento really must have nothing to do.

is there not a movie theater, mall, or ihop in that town?

exactly what I was thinking dude...truthfully.

[jcygts6]

Im from Sacramento. People here like WNBA better than the Sacramento Kings!

CUz Kings suck assss!

[HoulihansTX]

6/9
Indiana Fever -3

I'm taking home favorites from this point on.

If you look at the records of the teams for the past three years. Very few teams have winning road records.

This is how many teams had winning road records...

5 teams in '06 / 5 teams in '07 / and 1 team in '08. Even playoff teams have losing road records historically.

[HoulihansTX]

Odds to win WNBA Chapionship

Atlanta Dream +8550
Chicago Sky +8050
Connecticut Sun +3050
Detroit Shock +325
Indiana Fever +825
Los Angeles Sparks +165
Minnesota Lynx +4050
New York Liberty +4550
Phoenix Mercury +1415
Sacramento Monarchs +1415
San Antonio Silver Stars +725
Seattle Storm +625
Washington Mystics +5250

[Razz_Donkey]

Im from Sacramento. People here like WNBA better than the Sacramento Kings!

CUz Kings suck assss!

I hear that they include free tickets to the kings games when you buy wnba tickets up there...

[HoulihansTX]

6/10
Detroit -5.5
Mercury -6.5

Home favorites = Auto Plays. Making my WNBA capping life easier. I said it once I'll say it again. WNBA teams win at home and lose on the road. And the stats back it up.