HoulihansTX's WNBA Breakdown for 2009

[JumpoffJoeBeezy]

6/10
Detroit -5.5
Mercury -6.5

Home favorites = Auto Plays. Making my WNBA capping life easier. I said it once I'll say it again. WNBA teams win at home and lose on the road. And the stats back it up.

I believe out of 240 games last season the home teams won about 64% of the time.

And most of the times that the road team won it was when one of the teams were clearly superior than the other.

[JumpoffJoeBeezy]

[HoulihansTX]

I believe out of 240 games last season the home teams won about 64% of the time.

And most of the times that the road team won it was when one of the teams were clearly superior than the other.

Exactly, so by mid season we should be able to call out who is going to win the road games.

[HoulihansTX]

6/10
Detroit -5.5
Mercury -6.5

Home favorites = Auto Plays. Making my WNBA capping life easier. I said it once I'll say it again. WNBA teams win at home and lose on the road. And the stats back it up.

Detroit won all four games against Washington last season by an average of 19.3 points.

The Sparks went 2-1 against the Lynx last year, winning 92-84 in their lone visit to Minneapolis on July 27. I think Missing Parker will be the difference for a Minnesota win tomorrow

Added play: Minnesota +2

[HoulihansTX]

6/9
Indiana Fever -3 W

3-3 Spreads
0-1 ML's

[shhhhh22]

Nice job man!

[HoulihansTX]

6/10
Detroit -5.5
Mercury -6.5
Minnesota +2
Detroit vs. Washington 144.5UNDER
----Top-5 defense in Detroit going against the worst offensive team from last year in Washington.

Minnesota vs. LA Sparks 159.5OVER
----Top offense, but bottom tier defense in Minnesota going against a sparks team who has trouble guarding at the backcourt positions. I see a forecast of heavy rain of threes.

$50 a play

[hoop guru]

I like minnesota/LA over 159.5 but detroit/wash is a toss up.

[HoulihansTX]

I know the lines aren't out, but I want to get them early in the morning. So I cap now, bet later.

6/12

Seattle vs. Minnesota
---- Seattle has trouble scoring on the road. They have three good players, but only Ms. Jackson(2x MVP) shows up on the road. she will need help scoring, but wont get it. Minnesota is an offensive juggernaut at home. They are playing B2B, but sleep in their own beds tonite. PLAY MINNESOTA

Phoenix vs. Sacramento
---- Phoenix bring a balanced attack, by using their two all-stars, who play G & F, to get others open shots. But they are playing a B2B road trip. Offense is hard to find when you have tired legs. Sacramento plays great defense at home. They will win with timely scoring, and staunch defense. PLAY SACRAMENTO & UNDER

LA Sparks vs. Indiana
----Simply put Sparks are horrid on the road w/o Parker(MVP). They find it hard to score for long stretches of games at times. All that said they are playing a team in the Fever that has lost their best player(Griffith C) to a season ending injury. Sparks still have Lisa Lesile who will be a matchup nightmare for the Fever b/c of it. PLAY SPARKS

Atlanta vs. Chicago
---- Both cellar dwellers last year, but each have key additions to their teams. Key factor is that Atlanta is a team that lacks chemistry, and is on the road. Chicago has a phenom at C who is 6'6. I have forgotten her name, but she didn't play much last year due to injury. Chicago may be better than they will get credit for. They have no defense on the perimeter though, and that's where ATL's Chamique Holdsclaw plays. LEAN ATLANTA

[jcygts6]

looks good cant wait till the lines out

[HoulihansTX]

6/11

Atlanta goes from PK to -5 in a matter of hours. I truly wonder what spurred this radical line movement??

These teams are cellar dwellars though, and seems like a game to stay away from. As the books have no read, so my read must be off as well.

[HoulihansTX]

Has anyone bet WNBA for a whole year?

If so do you experience this type of steep line movement regularly throughout the season?

The books must get hammered by a large group of bettors who cherry pick the opening lines, that the books use to identify where to set there "secondary sharp lines????"

[HoulihansTX]

6/13

New York vs. San Antonio
----> San Antonio had the second best home record(15-2). New York had an average away record, but their away defense is the problem. San Antonio likes to Run & Gun, and will try to outscore you. PLAY SAN ANTONIO & OVER

Sacramento vs. Phoenix
---> Classic home and home. Phoenix lost 6/12, and should be looking for revenge on home court blah blah.... Sacramento had trouble scoring on the road historically against this team, but scored 90 at home tonite. That's surprising, but this matchup gives us an under on a regular basis. The only reason Sac won 6/12... 27-34 at the free throw line to Phoenix's 12-12. Huge discrepancy that should not hold up at Phoenix. PLAY PHOENIX & UNDER

[HoulihansTX]

From now on I going to put an (*) next to my top play of the day my at the request on someone who PM'ed me. I think it should work to the benefit of all of us.

[RoagBettor]

The problem is that women's basketball is so bad and these teams change so much year to year that it's hard for the books to cap the games at the start of the season. So the lines have drastic moves based upon who is getting the action. Otherwise the books would get killed.

[waggle]

Thanks Houli

[HoulihansTX]

6/21

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss)

Category
Record Percent

Away Teams
9-24 27.27%
Home Teams
24-9 72.73%
Favorites
20-11 64.52%
Dogs
11-20 35.48%
Away Favorites
1-3 25.00%
Away Dogs
8-19 29.63%
Home Favorites
19-8 70.37%
Home Dogs
3-1 75.00%


IN other words....
Home Favorites = AUTOPLAY

[HoulihansTX]

6/21

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category
Record Percent

Away Teams
11-22-0 33.33%

Home Teams
22-11-0 66.67%

Favorites
18-13-0 58.06%

Dogs
13-18-0 41.94%

Away Favorites
1-3-0 25.00%

Away Dogs
10-17-0 37.04%

Home Favorites
17-10-0 62.96%

Home Dogs
3-1-0 75.00%


Home court is everything. Might as well be College Basketball

[SportsTerminator]

Good data!

[HoulihansTX]

Here's a website that keeps great info for each team in the WNBA....

http://www.wnba.com/features/powerrankings_archive.html

I know info on how teams are doing each week is hard to find. This is one of the few sites that give detailed info on the teams. This is sorely needed, b/c those post-game recaps covered by this league are horrid, and half-assed.

[RICHIE801]

people in sacramento really must have nothing to do.

is there not a movie theater, mall, or ihop in that town?

Yea its the only the state capitol of California I'm sure it lacks a theatre mall and ihop.

[HoulihansTX]

6/28

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss)

Category
Record Percent

Away Teams
14-36 28.00%

Home Teams
36-14 72.00%

Favorites
30-18 62.50%

Dogs
18-30 37.50%

Away Favorites
1-5 16.67%

Away Dogs
13-29 30.95%

Home Favorites
29-13 69.05%

Home Dogs
5-1 83.33%

[HoulihansTX]

6/28

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category
Record Percent

Away Teams
18-32-0 36.00%

Home Teams
32-18-0 64.00%

Favorites
26-22-0 54.17%

Dogs
22-26-0 45.83%

Away Favorites
1-5-0 16.67%

Away Dogs
17-25-0 40.48%

Home Favorites
25-17-0 59.52%

Home Dogs
5-1-0 83.33%

[HoulihansTX]

6/28

Taking notes...

--- Teams that play three straight road games in at least five days, have lost the third game 4 out of 6 times.

--- B2B's Records

Going from Home to Road
1 W / 5 L's

Going from Road to Home
4 W's / 0 L

Going from Road to Road
0 W / 3 L's

[HoulihansTX]

6/28

WNBA ATS Records

Team
ATS W/L O/U For Agst. Marg.

1 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2981.html
6-2-0 6-2 5-3 74.9 71.1 3.8

2 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2975.html
5-2-0 4-3 3-4 78.0 76.6 1.4

3 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2978.html
6-3-0 6-3 8-1 84.7 81.9 2.8

4 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2976.html
5-2-0 4-3 2-5 73.9 67.3 6.6

5 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2972.html
6-4-0 6-4 8-2 90.4 89.7 0.7

6 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2971.html
5-4-0 6-3 5-3 74.3 70.4 3.9

7 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2977.html
4-4-0 3-5 1-6 70.4 69.9 0.5

8 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team665231.html
4-5-0 4-5 6-3 81.6 83.0 -1.4

9 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team664524.html
3-5-0 5-3 6-2 76.0 80.0 -4.0

10 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2979.html
2-4-0 3-3 2-4 69.0 72.8 -3.8

11 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2982.html
3-5-0 2-6 3-5 70.4 72.0 -1.6

12 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2983.html
2-5-0 2-5 3-4 72.0 74.4 -2.4

13 covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/wnba/teams/team2973.html
1-7-0 1-7 4-4 72.4 79.8 -7.4

Source Covers.com

[shhhhh22]

Great info man... Thanks!

[HoulihansTX]

I will do something like this for the WNBA this season. Draft picks/ New team makeups/ potential Championship matchup/ And What team should be a moneymaker.