CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[laxdjock]

CLE -8.

Looks good, thoughts?

[SmackdownV]

So my plays tonight are:

Orlando -5....I would take it all the way to -7.5.
Houston ML
Houstion +1.5

No over/unders for me today. Those both look a tad stinky.......(like 3 day old fish rotting in the sun)....for me to risk any $$ on.

GL all!

[wangichu]

CLE -8.

Looks good, thoughts?

you better make sure that joe johnson, al horford, and marvin williams are all out for this one. If two of them play i'm on ATL +8/ML LARGE. you just can't throw points at the hawks when they're at home.

[cocknocker]

I don't know, wang. I heard that Johnson is listed as doubtful, Williams is listed as probable, and Horford is also listed as probable. Now with all of that going on, how can you take the Hawks? Too much miinute mixing. Just as we thought when this series was announced, the Hawks won't win a single game. Might as well keep on bettin' Cleveland until the wheels fall off. If there was a prop for taking Cleveland by the minute I would take that also

[SmackdownV]

CK....I agree with you to a point.

But.....why would vegas make the line only -8?

Again.....something stinks....and it's not my socks.

[wangichu]

I don't know, wang. I heard that Johnson is listed as doubtful, Williams is listed as probable, and Horford is also listed as probable. Now with all of that going on, how can you take the Hawks? Too much miinute mixing. Just as we thought when this series was announced, the Hawks won't win a single game. Might as well keep on bettin' Cleveland until the wheels fall off. If there was a prop for taking Cleveland by the minute I would take that also

see that's the thing... every where i go i hear that the hawks won't win a single game and any time that everyone in the free world keeps saying that they'll get swept and i just never play with the public when they're so overwhelmingly uniform in their opinion (after all, who thought they'd even win one game against boston last year). Furthermore, they just have to keep it within 8, a very reasonable task even if joe johnson doesn't play, and as for minute mixing, while normally an important aspect to consider, i don't think either guy has been out for long enough to really mess up the rotation. They adjusted in a couple games where those guys were gone, but haven't really forgotten how to gel with them. Also, i'm still not sold that joe johnson won't make a fluke appearance. He could just be playing dead, but he walked off the court on his own when it first happened. I've sprained my ankle a number of times playing basketball or otherwise, and normally when i couldn't go on it for a few days, i couldn't walk on it right away at all. Something doesn't seem right about that.

also....

granted they did look bad, but i know the hawks and here are somethings about them.

1-they consistently flop on the road and fail to play competitively (i think josh smith for example gets very frusterated and lets the calls get to him). Here's some numbers:
-only 3 playoff teams had worse road records than the hawks (they are a lot like the jazz in home/road splits) at 16-25, while they were going against the best home team in the game at 39-2, so the blowouts really made sense.
notable home losses:
boston 93-99, 85-88 (and the latter was when the celtics had their traveling referee gang backing them... saw the game... terrible officiating)
cleveland 87-88
Orlando 82-88, 102-106
san antonio 92-102
phoenix 99-104 (for whatever reason, phoenix owns them)

NONE OF THOSE LOSSES EXCEPT THE SPURS WAS BY MORE THAN 8, ALL AGAINST CONTENDERS EXCEPT PHOENIX (who WAS a contender in theory).

the other 3 were to scrubish teams because atlanta gets up for the big game and sometimes plays uninspired against subpar teams (NJ, LAC, PHI)

2-they consistently play VERY well at home (in the big game especially), proving capable of beating every team in the league, including the cavs (97-92 early in the year) and only losing the second match 88-87 because they let themselves go down by double digits at the half. Opposite of their road rec vs cavs home rec... their home record is better than the cavs road record: 31-10, vs 27-14

notable home wins:

CLE 97-92
DEN 109-91
HOU 103-100
MIA 2x (... not that notable, but still)
N.O. 89-79 (swept them this year)
UTAH 100-93
POR 98-80
DAL 95-87
LA LAKERS 86-76


3- this series through 2 looks eirily resemblent of their first round bout with the celtics, get blown out in games 1 and 2, losing double digit spreads on the road, as i expected, fading them all four times.
cleveland is good, but not really better than the celtics were last year, while the hawks have improved considerably over last year.
You cannot base your estimate of the hawks play at home on their road performance, they're just two different teams at home and away.

4-game 2 featured the absence of al horford and marvin williams, both expected to play in game 3 (joe johnson probably won't play, but that's why we get the spread at 8, although i'm not sold that they wouldn't try to downplay his status and let him play last second). it was a +9 for them at home last year against the celtics though.

cleveland put their best game on the hawks in both bouts in atlanta and neither time could they even win by 2, let alone 8. atlanta is WAY better than the pistons, so don't take those games into account. I just really can't see the books handing the public free money on the cavs for 7 straight games, it's time to start recouping. I'll be watching the spread though to see if vegas tips their hand, but right now i'm leaning on the hawks



ATL IS 5-2 ATS as home dogs this year and have not been given more than 4 points at home all year.

[SmackdownV]

Great write-up!

Vegas NEVER gives away free money. Good things to think about.

I like the Dirty Birds in this spot.

[wangichu]

btw, i'm going big on the houston first half wager. The spread moved up to 1.5 at most books, and 2.5 at betus, yet the half time spread is still down at + .5 indicating to me that the books don't want to give the rockets any more points than that at half time. I'm very happy with that play.

also, in regards to the under on ORL/BOS, i do like that play. 3 of the four tilts between these two teams went under including both games in orlando, and we are coming off an over, much alike the regular season over where the celtics beatdown the magic by double digits. In a highly defensive series, i like taking an under immediately following an over. I really doubt the celtics get too much from their bench, certainly not like last game. I'm not going crazy with it because we've hit our last 4 totals and i don't want to push my luck with totals too much, but it's definitely worth throwing some coin at... so i think my card for the night will be...

ORL -2.5 1st half
ORL -4 (buy down... probably not necessary) HEAVY

HOU +.5 1st half BIG
ORL/BOS under

[SmackdownV]

I'm on:

Orlando -5 BIG.....HUGE
Houston +1.5 BIGGER....GIGANTIC...........

[polishkielbasa10]

be careful boys...I'm loving the Celts in this game 3 tonight..Pierce is going to show up huge, Rhondo is just gonna destroy the Orlando bench...not to mention, they have found that D that made them so tough. The bench is rolling for the celtics. I'm taking the gift points, cause all in all...the celtics are just that much better, reguardless of venue and minus KG

[wangichu]

be careful boys...I'm loving the Celts in this game 3 tonight..Pierce is going to show up huge, Rhondo is just gonna destroy the Orlando bench...not to mention, they have found that D that made them so tough. The bench is rolling for the celtics. I'm taking the gift points, cause all in all...the celtics are just that much better, reguardless of venue and minus KG

that reverse line movement AFTER the books finally got the majority of the public on the magic is just too damning in my opinion. There's just no way in my mind that the magic don't respond to getting blown out.

[Trixie]

Guys, I would be wary of the Lakers if I were you. I respect the shit out of both you guys and if I'm into a bet and I see you guys aren't, I am inclined to sit out. But you can't cap Kobe. And line movement says this one goes either way. It moved from -1.5 to 1, then back to -1.5. The Rockets are good, and Yao is probably the best center in the game (you cannot foul him), but to me the bet tonight is the Magic and only the Magic. You don't NEED to bet on a game that might go either way, so why not just go with the strong play? Good luck to you guys whatever you do, but I'm gonna flow on the side of caution and sit that game out.

[wangichu]

Guys, I would be wary of the Lakers if I were you. I respect the shit out of both you guys and if I'm into a bet and I see you guys aren't, I am inclined to sit out. But you can't cap Kobe. And line movement says this one goes either way. It moved from -1.5 to 1, then back to -1.5. The Rockets are good, and Yao is probably the best center in the game (you cannot foul him), but to me the bet tonight is the Magic and only the Magic. You don't NEED to bet on a game that might go either way, so why not just go with the strong play? Good luck to you guys whatever you do, but I'm gonna flow on the side of caution and sit that game out.

we're both aware of the risk behind betting against the lakers and as both of us are laker fans, we already have enough bias on the games outcome. We just played the first half so we can collect and then watch from the sidelines, hopeful that our boys comeback and pull it off. Either way, we'll be playing the loser of this game in game 4

[Trixie]

Best of luck, Wang. I wasn't presuming to second guess you or nothing.

[xxdjstriderxx]

so far so good on ORL, MONSTER PLAYS GUYS!!! GL!!

[SmackdownV]

OK....second half 94 is GOSH DARN $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.....

Take that the the F'in bank!

[SmackdownV]

I just laid the Mother Frickin wood on the over second half 94.

Boooooommmmm shacka lacka................

[cocknocker]

Alright wang, I don't trust the Rockets to be able to close out the Lakers tonight with a win because of ur guy, KOBE. So here is what I propose. We ride with the over 193 and let the chips fall where they may. This game is too close to call on the side. The Rockets lack a clutch shooter down the stretch. The Lakers do have one. I think that this will be a nip and tuck affair with a very close margin at the end. I played this number (193) for a dime and a half so it would be silly to not list it as a play of ours.


Lakers/Rockets over 193

I am updating our challenge page!

[The_Kid]

CK and wang, I see the Rockets as a PK now for the 1H. Does that movement bother you? As a Laker fan, I'd rather take the 1H spread for the Rockets rather than the full game because betting against Kobe is like playing with fire. You just don't do it. Any thoughts are appreciated. You guys are doing a great job. Keep it up.

[SmackdownV]

I am 100% with you CK.....

I have a big bet on Houston +1.5...............

But I am gonna match it with the over 193.

ESPN Friday Night Basketball.......where AMAZING overs happen.

[sweetjones55]

CK is that rockets play a heavy play?

[SmackdownV]

ooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhh baby.....

This Orlando game is gonna hit 200 points....

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh gimmie my money....gimmie my money.

[cocknocker]

CK is that rockets play a heavy play?

No. But I did put $1500 on the over and and a nice dime on the 1st half for Houston. I am not taking Houston for the game though, because Kobe can decide to go all out at any time. So I had a hard time taking a side in this game for the full game. Houston does have a better chance at winning the 1st half.

[overdose.fR]

the line is 192.5 now

[sweetjones55]

I definitely agree with the 1st half but I got a a feeling this game goes under. Game 3's usually go under and both of these teams are on hot under streaks (minus that last game). The under is 12-3 after the Rockets give up 105+. I got the under at 194 before it jumped even further down.

[SmackdownV]

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO That second half is goin OVAAAAA baby!!!!

CK....I put $1,500 on the over too....

and $1,500 Houston +1.5

So it could be a GREAT night......or just a break even night on that game......

BUT I LAID THE WOOD ON SECOND HALF OVER 94 ORLANDO BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DAMN......I AM ON FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRREEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[SmackdownV]

Pay me biiiiiiiiiiiiiaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttt ttcccccccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[cocknocker]

I will be taking Boston+anything in game 4. This baby will be going all the way to 7 games. Orlando is not a smart enough of a team to beat the Celtics 2 times in a row like tonight. The missed free throws will always be their undoing

[MarkHammond]

I will be taking Boston+anything in game 4. This baby will be going all the way to 7 games. Orlando is not a smart enough of a team to beat the Celtics 2 times in a row like tonight. The missed free throws will always be their undoing

I was just explaining this to my square orlando fan friend. ORlando has low basketball IQ and lack killer instinct no way they beta boston in a game where the celtics will be giving there al

[SmackdownV]

As always CK..........

I'm with you......the NBA wants 7 games.....7 games I tell ya.....

National Bookie League

[The_Kid]

Orlando is stupid. They fall in love with their shot too much even when they're not hitting. They don't throw the ball into Howard enough and even when House is on fire, they still let him run around and get wide open looks. Imagine if Allen starts to actually hit a jump shot. Orlando won't have it so easy then. Boston should respond after getting blown out tonight.

[Abrcrom12]

You guys have been winnin me all kinds of shyt
Tonight's Orlando 1H and ATS cashed out big.
I originally started out doin my own thing, and then found you guys. What dumb luck that was.
I was down to almost nothing, and have totally come back.


What are you guys thinkin' about tomorrow. I'm liking the Cavs at -8.5

[SmackdownV]

Abrcrom12.................Look at the Nugs first................we will give you the win on that one...then you can take the dirty birds +8.5 for some major cash.

That spread is a trap....................but I'm gonna think about it first and tell you tomorrow....................

Booom Shacka Lacka..................

[cocknocker]

I'm not fooling with you guys and this Atlanta shit! I'm cool on that. I can't do it with my money. I'm not going to bet one penny against him in the playoffs. It's monetary suicide

[texhooper]

this is funny...i was about to play cavs -8 but wanted to see what the board thinks. haha...cavs it is. no one's said it outright, but there's no reason at this point not to.

edit- wang has a pretty big post about why to take the hawks. i hate to say it, but i just don't feel it.