CK/wangichu's Think Tank

jellobiafra · 05-07-09, 09:25 PM

Middle's got a good shot. Need the over first!

wangichu · 05-07-09, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

It's gonna be a foot race, wang. Fasten you seatbelt.

loving the way that the hawk's second unit is fighting for our money...

what i am NOT loving is that i just heard that joe johnson is doubtful for game 3... that means that the status of 3 of the hawks' starting 5 is up in the air going into game 3, which could keep that hawks ML i've been all giddy about from cashing. Should help us catch a really nice spread, but it makes it a little less likely to hit.

i'll be shocked as hell if ATL winds up covering this one for our opposition too... i thought that was toast after the 1st half, let alone through 3, down 15 with 2 and a half to play i almost think they should throw their first unit out there and take a stab at this game.

cocknocker · 05-07-09, 09:35 PM

True wang. I hate that Joe Johnson is hurt that makes the handicapping for that game very difficult not knowing his status. You already know it's going to be secretive as hell

wangichu · 05-07-09, 09:37 PM

KACHING!!! thank you sasha

another great day gentlemen, we are killing the books so far this postseason.

In2Win · 05-07-09, 09:39 PM

Thank you CK and Wang for the Over bet. I had it at 182. I so i didn't bet as heavy. I'm such a pussy! Let's make some more money!

showtime2000 · 05-07-09, 09:41 PM

Nica call guys on the Over,well done!

laxdjock · 05-07-09, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

I already put my entire bankroll on the over.

I would have put my entire bankroll on the over up to 185.

Me and CK gonna be makin some $$$$$$$$$$$

Great call.....I was worried after 1H!

SmackdownV · 05-07-09, 09:43 PM

Yup..............

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS SSSSS

CK you a pimp motha fffffffffffff................you know the rest.

cocknocker · 05-07-09, 09:44 PM

On we move to tomorrow. We're pretty much set. Let's smoke on the Lakers/Houston matchup. We're already set on the Magic. If need be we may have to leave the Laker game alone altogether. It will be Friday night in Orlando and the arena will be rockin'! Orlando is gonna blow them off.

cocknocker · 05-07-09, 09:46 PM

Well I am glad that that one worked out. I went pretty HEAVY on that one, but we can't start rubbing our stones yet. There's work yet to be done. Man I wonder what non's up to these days...

ValHallaYoung · 05-07-09, 09:56 PM

BOOM baby over heavy Thank you guys just made a book killing spree

cocknocker · 05-07-09, 10:30 PM

Alright here are my reasons for Houston, wang. First of all the line goes from Lakers-2 to -1 with 82% of bettors on LA at the outset. I know this Rockets team pretty well and the youngsters tend to shine at home. Obviously the Rockets have the depth and bench to hang with the Lakers. Defensively they are holding their own. Looking inside of the numbers, they were hanging with the Lakers in the last game until the burst the Lakers put on at the end. Derek Fisher was a big loss for the Lakers. It's not like he's a star player or anything. But he is their floor general. Making suach a dramatic change in their chemistry will not work well on such short notice.

The Rockets have been viewed as enigmatic underacheivers in past playoffs. And the public has lined up at the counter expecting a free chicken dinner for playing the Lakers. The size of the line alone tells me that this game can go either way. Being that it is in Texas and the whistles will go the Rockets way, I would tend to rock with the hom team on a Friday night. The energy will be electric as these teams have been banging against each other alot already.

The average halftime score for tese two teams when facing each other is Houston 50.1 Lakers 48.1. That may not sound too significant, but it is when you take into account that Houston has covered in the first half at home against the Lakers the last 3 times they have played in the Toyota Center. And this time the Rockets are getting points. The first half line went from Lakers -1 down to a PK on some books.

Mine has the Rockets +.5. I am throwing some coin at it tonight over whiskey. We will have to rock with the Rockets in the 1st half homes. We can't leave ANY money on the table. I'm gonna throw this one into the Challenge.

Atlanta/Cleveland game 3 is your call lil homie. Having been around me for as long as you have you already know that we will be taking Boston in game 4. We don't even need to talk about it. That baby is going 7.

Houston+.5 1st half

SmackdownV · 05-07-09, 11:02 PM

All over Orlando.....

Gotta love H-town with what went down with Artest last night.......

You da man CK...

sweetjones55 · 05-07-09, 11:16 PM

Houston 1st half is a great call. They are the 3rd best 1st half team. Houston has covered every 1st half spread in the playoffs except one. Rockets are 7-1 ATS in the 1st half so far in the playoffs. They are 3-0 @ home ATS in the 1st half and are 2-0 ATS in the 1st half so far against the Lakers.

cocknocker · 05-07-09, 11:18 PM

Right on Smack. What recession? We'll get some more money tomorrow.

paco · 05-07-09, 11:50 PM

gotta ride with the champ celtics tomorrow, but hey i've been wrong all year! thas why i joined, so maybe i can turn my luck around with

cnleaf · 05-07-09, 11:58 PM

waiting for Orlando line to drop and take superman

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 12:22 AM

I doubt that it will drop much more cn, it started out Orlando-5.5 and it has now gone down to 4 on some books. I am gonna wait until right before gametime and take them. They are a totally different team at home (32-9 straight up), and I think that the emotions of the crowd will help them prevail. Rafer is not that big of a loss when you consider that Howard's scoring will go up at the pad.

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 12:28 AM

Okay wang, I booked Orlando at -4 on my site and played it BIG but not HEAVY.I just went to the big board and made the change to reflect the number

cnleaf · 05-08-09, 12:37 AM

CK, btw the 1st half line for ORLANDO is -2 on GREEK now if you want to change the big board to gain more chance. Anyway gl tomorrow.

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 01:02 AM

Good idea, cnleaf. I will go ahead and play that one now too.

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 01:06 AM

Atlanta might be without both Johnson and Horford for game 3. I smell a blowout again, this time of epic proportions.

Vreston · 05-08-09, 01:28 AM

Bravo, Bravo!

on the over last night!

They had it at 177.5 all day and when I went to bet it went it went to 179. I don't know what came over me and I reduced my bet from the amount I was going to put on it at first. I still did well though. Thanks guys for all your advice all this time.
It turns out that I should've played my gut yesterday on everything else. I wanted Cleveland -7 1st half, TT over 95.5 and -12.5 FT. But I stayed off

. Not to be ungrateful though. I'm happy as it is!

My book is only giving me Boston - Orlando 1st half at 2.5 right now. Have to wait for later.

isiah121 · 05-08-09, 02:30 AM

CK, dont you think Lakers gonna come out playing hard and try to steal the 1st half like what Houston did to them?

wangichu · 05-08-09, 04:41 AM

yeah, houston at the half is the only play i can find thus far myself. I was hoping to find something else because i played that in all 3 of the home games from their series against portland, but i guess there's no reason to stop now. I kinda feel that houston wins this game based on the spread and the situation, but the way the public is always playing the lakers it's really hard to take public betting into account for capping purposes. Also, as much as i love d-fish, the lakers really do have the pieces to work around him with farmar (who really matches up well with brooks, both small speed guys and he's got heighth on him) and shannon brown, who's big enough to bully both of their points around.

Nevertheless, along with your scoring averages, the rockets have not played a game in which they were losing at the half against the lakers this year and really this shouldn't be any different. the lakers have been pretty bad ATS at the half on the road this year, much different from last year, while the rockets have obviously been very dominant ATS at the half in houston. I'm still debating on taking them ATS for the game if the line unfolds right, but i may just ultimately prefer to be out of that game by the half so i can comfortably watch and root for my team, rather than watching with mixed emotions like i did in game 1.

not nearly as confident here as i feel about magic half/game, but as far as i can see for now, houston 1st half is clearly the best play in that game.

HOU +.5 (post it)

wangichu · 05-08-09, 04:46 AM

i don't know if i will roll with the mavs at the half in game 3 financially, as with the exception of the first game of the season between these two (mavs led by 1 at half), the mavs have gone into the half losing in all 5 other games, down 13 and 5 in the two games in dallas at the half. Denver was a very good 1st half team this year and if it were not for the game 3 theory at work here (which i believe in more than most things) i would probably be on denver at the half. I know dallas has been a good half time team this year, but i'm not sold against the nuggets. Most likely, I'll stick to the game for dallas and my money. Not necessarily saying wipe it from the board yet, but i'm certainly not sold that i want my money there.

BCaldwell32 · 05-08-09, 05:17 AM

You guys need to reconsider taking Orlando tomorrow. They will be without Rafer Alston cause of his dumb ass 3 stooges slap on Eddie House, now with Jameer Nelson already done for year they will have to rely on Anthony Johnson or Tyronn Lue to run the offense and I'm sorry to say they are both pretty pathetic. The Celtics will concemtrate on limiting the catches that Howard gets in the paint and guard against the 3. The Celtics moneyline is the play tomorrow and I might throw some scraps on the under 189. Good luck whichever way you go.

pho3nix32 · 05-08-09, 07:42 AM

you guys are just amazing

ValHallaYoung · 05-08-09, 09:42 AM

bos under 189 looks safe im sure orlando will be on its guard.
lal under is also considerable too let me know whats on your pro mind

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 09:43 AM

Okay wang, I will have the Mavs first half rubbed off, but according to our rules for the playoffs it's supposed to be a shallackin'! They are down and 0-2 and the series has changed venues. What I will do then is play it privately and rub it off of the big board since we don't agree on it. There's no need in forcing a play. We have a longway to go in the Challenge anyway!

cocknocker · 05-08-09, 11:36 AM

I see that the total for Boston and Orlando was offered at a few places in Vegas at 191.5 (M.Resort Line, LVSC,) and it's been offered as low as 188 at Leroy's. At my book the number is 189. Their average total line in their last 10 overall contests is 190.5. 59% of bettors on the over, and the lineis overall pretty stable. The average total for Orlando's playoff gamesis 190.25 (basically 190) and Boston's lines have averaged 196.38, or 196.5 if you will. The average actual combined scores in the last 10 games between these teams is 185. The assigned totals lines for those games averaged 190.9, or 191 basically. The combination produced 6 unders and 4 overs. The only game in that span assigned the magic number that we have for tonight's game (189) was a 84-82 win at Orlando 3/25/09 that Orlando won getting back door'ed by the Celtics in a game that was assigned a 3.5 line. I do like that this game has a higher line than that game too, meaning that the linemakers saw that Orlando letup off of the gas when they had a lead that was once thought comfortable.

Pride will kick in in this game and they will defend better in front of their home crowd, and get the cover as well.

All of the factors are there.

This total is more in the range of a typical Orlando line.

The spread line is higher than the last time the teams met in Orlando despite Orlando not covering.

Orlando hasn't beaten the Celtics by more than 4 since 07' when they used to do it on the regular.

Dwight Howard is more assertive at home.

BigMoney is gonna be there!

This baby goes under. A blowout will happen.

I like the under, wang. Let me know if you want to throw some coin at it.

sweetjones55 · 05-08-09, 11:40 AM

LAKERS-ROCKETS UNDER 194 should be money. 5 of the last 6 Rockets games have gone under. 4 of the last 5 Lakers games have gone under. Last 5 Rockets home games have gone under. Both Lakers road games in the playoffs went under.

Vegas believes Houston will compete tonight. The only way I see that possible is in a low scoring game. I also think that the over-under line is inflated because of the amount of points both teams scored in the last game.

These teams went to blows last game. Their definitely will be a lot of hard-nosed defense every play tonight, in particular Battier and Artest on Kobe who were completely shown up by him last game. There will be few easy baskets tonight for the Lakers.

Also, game 1 of this series only missed the over by 1 point. Game two went way over. Usually two overs in a row warrant an under in game 3. So far the trend in game 3's is under.

RoagBettor · 05-08-09, 11:48 AM

sweet, the only concern I have is I think this game will go down to the wire and could go into O/T.

sweetjones55 · 05-08-09, 11:50 AM

OT is bad luck. I don't ever not place a bet with the fear of the under not hitting because of OT (did get burned once in the Celtics-Bulls series lol).

SmackdownV · 05-08-09, 12:56 PM

As for the Laker game. The spread is Lakeshow -1.5.

I have a feelin in the ol gut that the books want us to take the Lakeshow at this value line. I will be playing heavy on the Rockets ML tonight just for that reason.

If the line seems too good to be true.....it usually is.

Plus Artest is gonna come to ball tonight and fisher is OUT.

Goin with the home team in this one.