CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[jcygts6]

What about the Lakers by -4 for the game tomarrow?

I had them in a $2000 Four point teaser with denver today.

Need suggestions. Should I hedge tomarrow and put some money on Houston +8 or do I just ride my Parlay out risking the $2000?

How much should I put on houston +8?

[corona]

Denver -6 is out for tuesday

i like it.

they did the same thing to the mavs they did to the hornets.
hornets hung around in the first half, looked like it would be a game....then denver punches them in the mouth, gets aggressive, gets out on the break, and nails some dagger 3's and the game's over.

they'll do it again in game 2. dallas just can't match the physical play. melo won't be in foul trouble the whole game, billups won't suck as bad.

[cocknocker]

I think that I am buying into that line of thinking corona

[cocknocker]

wang, you'd better get you some Orlando. It's already down to 2.5 in some spots in Vegas shortly after we made our plays. I hammered it. I also took Orlando -110 for the series

[joanapoker]

ORL -3

and what about that playoff rule.....NEVER BET AGAINST THE CELTICS AT HOME???

[corona]

ORL -3

and what about that playoff rule.....NEVER BET AGAINST THE CELTICS AT HOME???

i believe there needs to be an asterisk...

*when kg plays

[joanapoker]

But I thought the rule was because of the referees

[cocknocker]

There's a false favorite in this game Joanapoker. The line for this series went down from Orlndo+130 to Orlando-110. That alone tells you all that you need to know

[djpremier36]

Damn I hate to go against a PC play...but here is my reasoning

1. Orlando is coming off a blowout victory...BOS has been playing intense basketball the whole Bulls series

2. Orlando is without Lee who has been scoring consistently

3. Pietrus can't guard Ray Allen

4. Revenge game for BOS...they lost at home in the reg season

5. Rondo vs. Alston

6. Lewis and Turk aren't fully healthy

C's win by 5

[xxdjstriderxx]

quite possibly the easiest play of round 2 thus far. No playoff team flops harder on the road than atlanta and no team dominates at home like cleveland. Punch that ticket asap.

im sure the bookmakers dont know this.

[Razz_Donkey]

Celtics aren't the same team without kg. Still, Orlando has been rather shaky of late. I lack the confidence here in both teams. How important is homecourt advantage here, considering Boston's playoff history?

[jcygts6]

who cares about the orlando game! Its all about the Lakeshow tomarrow suckers

[wangichu]

i like it.

they did the same thing to the mavs they did to the hornets.
hornets hung around in the first half, looked like it would be a game....then denver punches them in the mouth, gets aggressive, gets out on the break, and nails some dagger 3's and the game's over.

they'll do it again in game 2. dallas just can't match the physical play. melo won't be in foul trouble the whole game, billups won't suck as bad.

exactly... i watched that whole game, content with the way the mavs hung around, but even despite an ass of turnovers and mediocre play from billups and melo there was a sense of tragic inevitability, the way the nugs rattle off points you could just tell it was a matter of time before they just ran off with the lead. I think that denver is in the tier of elite teams this year with the lakers, magic, celtics, and cavs, only maybe a tick below, while i hate the mavs and really should have known better than to trust them as much as i always trash on them. They're too soft for a physical athletic squad like the nugs who don't have liabilities on either side (ala dampier on offense)

[cocknocker]

Dampier is a malcontent. He played out here for the Warriors to start his career, and let me tell you, he was never a happy camper. I still feel that Dallas actually will get back into this thing, and I see a series that will be 7 games. They are lights out at home. Denver is due for some bumps in the road. Although I feel as wang that they are a physical team and among the top tier in the league I still feel that Dallas will show up. Apparently the linemakers do too as the line was almost identical to the opening line for Game#1 (5.5 game 1 and 6 game 2). The line for game 2 would have had to open at 7 or more for me to feel comfortable taking the Nuggets. I looked at the game on DVR again late last night (yes the pros go back and look at game footage again) and what I saw was that Dallas played with the Nuggets on equal footing until the last 2 minutes of the third and thenof course they got blown the f*ck out in the 4th quarter as teams usually d when they are getting used to the thin air in Mile High. Brandon Bass didn't make his mark on this game, but I feel that if he gets more minutes than Dampier (he is more athletic and smooth on offense and has a more rough edge) the Mavs would have that presence that they need in the middle. I like the Jet, Howard, Kidd to improve upon their second half performance and make this next game the squeaker that I know it will be. Dallas is going to smoke Denver in game 3 when they get home no matter what. It's the synergy, babe. Believe half of what you see some and none of what you hear. Dallas will hold their own in this series,even wit Dirk the floppa crying all over the place when he is touched. No matter who gets past this round, neither team doesn't stand a chance against the Lakers. I suggest that we be the contrarian and take the Cowboys in game two, with the idea that it isn't likely for them to have another 4th quarter melt down like that again...

[sweetjones55]

Dampier is a malcontent. He played out here for the Warriors to start his career, and let me tell you, he was never a happy camper. I still feel that Dallas actually will get back into this thing, and I see a series that will be 7 games. They are lights out at home. Denver is due for some bumps in the road. Although I feel as wang that they are a physical team and among the top tier in the league I still feel that Dallas will show up. Apparently the linemakers do too as the line was almost identical to the opening line for Game#1 (5.5 game 1 and 6 game 2). The line for game 2 would have had to open at 7 or more for me to feel comfortable taking the Nuggets. I looked at the game on DVR again late last night (yes the pros go back and look at game footage again) and what I saw was that Dallas played with the Nuggets on equal footing until the last 2 minutes of the third and thenof course they got blown the f*ck out in the 4th quarter as teams usually d when they are getting used to the thin air in Mile High. Brandon Bass didn't make his mark on this game, but I feel that if he gets more minutes than Dampier (he is more athletic and smooth on offense and has a more rough edge) the Mavs would have that presence that they need in the middle. I like the Jet, Howard, Kidd to improve upon their second half performance and make this next game the squeaker that I know it will be. Dallas is going to smoke Denver in game 3 when they get home no matter what. It's the synergy, babe. Believe half of what you see some and none of what you hear. Dallas will hold their own in this series,even wit Dirk the floppa crying all over the place when he is touched. No matter who gets past this round, neither team doesn't stand a chance against the Lakers. I suggest that we be the contrarian and take the Cowboys in game two, with the idea that it isn't likely for them to have another 4th quarter melt down like that again...

Denver just wears team down. It's a matter of time before they go on a run and pull away at home. They can turn a 7-10 point lead to 20 points in a matter of minutes at home. The Mavs may not melt down in the 4th quarter but it may be the 1st or 2nd quarter next game. Chauncey Billups scored 6 points and had 6 assists and they still won by 14. How much can they win by if he scores 15-20 and Carmelo isn't in foul trouble? They did this three times to New Orleans and now in the 1st game to Dallas. This isn't a coincidence. When the Nuggets go on the road this will be a different story though as the mavs are a superior home team.

[JohnMorr08]

I'm a little surprised to see Magic as a PC play. Orlando may win this game and I may be wrong... HOWEVER the one thing everyone keep saying is "no kg". Reminder: Celtics went 7 games in round 1 and 2 last year and we know the result. YES of course KG was in the lineup BUT Boston did not get nearly as much as they are getting from of Rondo, Ray Allen OR Davis at this point last year.

Orlando is SOFT. Who would you take in these 4 matchups??

Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston
Ray Allen vs. JJ Redick (haha this one makes me giggle)
Paul Pierce vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Glen Davis vs. Rashard Lewis

The only questionable matchup out of those 4 is the last one... Davis is strong but Lewis can be lights out. Of course the one I left out is Howard vs. Perk and the obvious choice is Howard BUT if you think it'll be a "walk in the park" you couldn't be more wrong. Perk is a Beast - it'll come down to foul trouble.

I wish you all the best on your wagers but Celtics will win this series. JJ Redick will have to take a meaningful shot at some point in this series and he'll blow it. He's no Ben Gordon.... hahaha

**I'm from Boston - Capping and trends are "out the window". ; )

[jcygts6]

Hi John Morrisson! ^^

[cocknocker]

JohnMorr08,

You forgot one little thing...Who's gonna stop Howard from getting ANY shot he wants in the paint. Kedrick Perkins can't even jump to begin with. Please don't mention his name. And that's about it for their options. Then who's going to be able to get a shot of in the paint when he is a blocking machine? I don't think that there is any inside advantage for the Celtics at all. This baybee ends in 6. Boston has no chance of winning a game in Orlando. Game 1 is PC strength. Watch way they take away Boston's home court. The record for teams that win 7 game playoff matches is horrid in game 1's of the next series. This one may end up being a reverse blowout. Orlando hates the Celtics

[sweetjones55]

What do the Celtics do when Glen Davis and Perkins get in foul trouble? Do they put Scalabrine on him lol. The only way I see them not getting into foul trouble is by just allowing Howard to score at will. Howard on either of those guys is a mismatch to begin with. A lot of people have been talking about Dwight Howard having to step up and I think tonight he will answer the call. The extra rest he got from the suspension shouldn't hurt him either.

Rashard Lewis will pull Glen Davis out of the lane because of his 3 point ability and Howard will go to work. Or they will double Howard and Rashard will go to work. Boston is in trouble.

[JohnMorr08]

I agree with you 100% with Howard's ability!! But Skip-to-my-lou or JJ will have to get him the ball first. Rondo and Ray will try to stop that from happening.

All your points are valid CK !! I don't doubt you for a minute... This is just the "fan" in me hoping that you are wrong. haha

[sweetjones55]

What do you think about the Dwight Howard Player Prop? It's been around 35-37 Points+Rebounds and I have hit it both times I've played it so far in the playoffs. On 5Dimes lines, he is 4-1 hitting the prop. Only game he didn't do it in was a game he only played 30 minutes. He is averaging 24 and 16 so far. I am thinking about putting a substantial wager on this.

[wangichu]

wang, you'd better get you some Orlando. It's already down to 2.5 in some spots in Vegas shortly after we made our plays. I hammered it. I also took Orlando -110 for the series

ya best b'leev i already tapped that line something good and am probably going to drop a little more on it by game time.

[In2Win]

CK I go thru a bookie and the line is -1.5... any points to the magic is still considered a PC play?

[laxdjock]

ya best b'leev i already tapped that line something good and am probably going to drop a little more on it by game time.

It dropped again....+1.5 -110 @ 5Dimes.

Not sure I'm touching this game....as Howard can hang 40+ on them, but I don't see BOS giving up home court advantage, especially in game 1.

[wangichu]

yo CK...

what do you think about the under in the lakers, houston game. I know the PC play is off and poppin' , but the rockets scored 82 and 81 respectively in their bouts in LA, and i HIGHLY doubt the lakers drop 111 again (or even over 100 for that matter) as the rockets do play some solid defense and that first matchup was before artest had found his place in the rotation, there was no battier (big defensive factor) and t-mac was still around (he helped overs, not unders). 2 of the games between these two went under (the last two when the rockets had finally gelled post t-mac) and the first one only went under by a half point and the obvious 4th quarter defensive collapse by the rockets who allowed the lake show to fire off 39 points in the 4th. I need to find the movement and money percentages here, but if they support my lean, i might play the under myself if you don't want to water down our plays with an O/U. Also, last year when the lakers finished up their previous series earlier than their incoming opponent, they had a bit of trouble getting out to as hot a start, which should play well into the under as well as the houston pick. Anyways... leaning:

LAL/HOU under 193

[SoonerGreg]

Booked:
Magic +2 (bought 0.5pt)
Rockets +10 (bought 1.5pts)

[wangichu]

It dropped again....+1.5 -110 @ 5Dimes.

Not sure I'm touching this game....as Howard can hang 40+ on them, but I don't see BOS giving up home court advantage, especially in game 1.

they coughed it up to the bulls, so i don't see why it'd be too hard to see them doing so to a team that beat them twice this year (once IN boston). orlando's just happy they don't have to go through detroit this year, because they can hang with the celtics.



the dog in this series has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings

[cockblocker]

What has Howard ever done in the playoffs? He's not a go to guy and he can't shoot free throws. Celtics are better at every position. Without Courtney Lee to counteract Rondo they have no shot.

The only thing going for the Magic in this game is the overplayed tired factor. Though it does'nt really seem to affect the Celtics much.

I think the Celtics carryover the momentum and win tonite then lose the next game.

[cocknocker]

yo CK...

what do you think about the under in the lakers, houston game. I know the PC play is off and poppin' , but the rockets scored 82 and 81 respectively in their bouts in LA, and i HIGHLY doubt the lakers drop 111 again (or even over 100 for that matter) as the rockets do play some solid defense and that first matchup was before artest had found his place in the rotation, there was no battier (big defensive factor) and t-mac was still around (he helped overs, not unders). 2 of the games between these two went under (the last two when the rockets had finally gelled post t-mac) and the first one only went under by a half point and the obvious 4th quarter defensive collapse by the rockets who allowed the lake show to fire off 39 points in the 4th. I need to find the movement and money percentages here, but if they support my lean, i might play the under myself if you don't want to water down our plays with an O/U. Anyways... leaning:

LAL/HOU under 193

Ya know, I like that pick actually because the public is all over the over and only 36% of the public is on the smart money. Why not? I have some coin to throw at it. It's your call. I kind of took control with the Orlando and Cleveland picks. If you say it's go then we give it a go!

[Chi_archie]

[quote=JohnMorr08;1807757]I'm a little surprised to see Magic as a PC play. Orlando may win this game and I may be wrong... HOWEVER the one thing everyone keep saying is "no kg". Reminder: Celtics went 7 games in round 1 and 2 last year and we know the result. YES of course KG was in the lineup BUT Boston did not get nearly as much as they are getting from of Rondo, Ray Allen OR Davis at this point last year.

Orlando is SOFT. Who would you take in these 4 matchups??

Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston
Ray Allen vs. JJ Redick (haha this one makes me giggle)
Paul Pierce vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Glen Davis vs. Rashard Lewis


you forgot to compare the bench play and the coaching

[cockblocker]

Orl vs Bos bench.

Anthony Johnson PG Vs Starbury Pts 3.8 Reb 1.2 Ast 3.3
Pts 5.3
Reb 1.8
Ast 2.5

JJ Redick vs Eddie House Pts 8.5 Reb 1.9 Ast 1.1
Pts 6.0
Reb 1.7
Ast 1.1

Mickael Pietrus GF Tony Allen Pts 7.8 Reb 2.3 Ast 1.4
Pts 9.4
Reb 3.3
Ast 1.2

Tony Battie FC Vs Brian Scalabrine Pts 3.5 Reb 1.3 Ast 0.5
Pts 4.8
Reb 3.6
Ast 0.4

Marcin Gortat CF vs Mikki Moore Pts 3.9 Reb 3.7 Ast 0.8
Pts 3.8
Reb 4.5
Ast 0.2

[JohnMorr08]

I didn't forget anything - My point was to compare the starters. So are you telling me you'd take Ron Jeremy over Doc Rivers?? hahaha To be completely honest with you I couldn't tell you more than 1 guy off of Orlando's bench.

I'm not trying to prove anything - I have WAY too much on this game 'emotionally' to put any $$ on it either way. I wish everyone the best of luck. I just hope to see a good game.

Furthermore, I hope there is a game 5 - Because I will be there!!

[cockblocker]

Too much emphasis is being put on Boston being tired from the series with Chicago.

Boston is the better team and they won't lose to game 1's in a row.

[cocknocker]

Oh I almost forgot, wang

I listed the under LA/HOU play a while ago on the Challenge Thread!

For those who want to know how I actually played the game, I took Orlando+4 when the line was still at 3 for the PC Play.

[cocknocker]

Orl vs Bos bench.

Anthony Johnson PG Vs Starbury Pts 3.8 Reb 1.2 Ast 3.3
Pts 5.3
Reb 1.8
Ast 2.5

JJ Redick vs Eddie House Pts 8.5 Reb 1.9 Ast 1.1
Pts 6.0
Reb 1.7
Ast 1.1

Mickael Pietrus GF Tony Allen Pts 7.8 Reb 2.3 Ast 1.4
Pts 9.4
Reb 3.3
Ast 1.2

Tony Battie FC Vs Brian Scalabrine Pts 3.5 Reb 1.3 Ast 0.5
Pts 4.8
Reb 3.6
Ast 0.4

Marcin Gortat CF vs Mikki Moore Pts 3.9 Reb 3.7 Ast 0.8
Pts 3.8
Reb 4.5
Ast 0.2

Looks like Orlando has the better bench without Leon Powe's numbers being thrown into the mix.