CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[cocknocker]

Either way, I'll be buying Dallas up three (3) points and playing them at either +9.5 or +10 depending upon what the public does with the line overnight.

I got away with my Houston/Orlando 4 point teaser tonight courtesy of a phone call with Big. He told me that that was what he was doing and it worked like magic.

I am thinking of also teasing Dallas and Cleveland with 4 points tomorrow as well

[mb19]

Anyone else see value in a hou +405 under 193.5 parlay?
I am sure some will say you are better off burning that money but IF Houston were to win it would be through defense.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[cs11787]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Nice hit buddy.

[Vreston]

Vreston, what made you take the Celtics if everything we talked about was Orlando oriented? I'm sorry I couldn't get back to you in time, but I indicated a long time ago on the thread that any points given to them were too many...

You're right CK.
You scared me away in a previous post when you said to take them at +2.5 bcs that way Boston needed 2 baskets to win. Since I could only get them at 1.5 I thought it might be a close one and went with Boston. If you had posted before I bet, I would've tailed you bcs you know better and that's for sure.
The Lakers game smelled too fishy to me and I only took the under 193 in that one which cashed. I would've played the second half if I was awake but the time difference is too much for me.
I hope today is a better day.
Cleveland is at -11.5 right now and Denver is at -6.5
That Cleveland spread is kinda big isn't it?
Do you guys think Denver can do it again? I want to go heavy on Denver -6.5 but I don't know if I should. I know they can do it, but will they???

Either way, I'll be buying Dallas up three (3) points and playing them at either +9.5 or +10 depending upon what the public does with the line overnight.

I got away with my Houston/Orlando 4 point teaser tonight courtesy of a phone call with Big. He told me that that was what he was doing and it worked like magic.

I am thinking of also teasing Dallas and Cleveland with 4 points tomorrow as well

Again you mention buying points. Sorry for tiring you with the same question but in my case where I can't buy points and I see that you do it makes me think that if CK has to buy points then he doesn't believe they will cover the +6.5 so maybe I should go the other way. This mixes me up big time. What should I do in this situation?


Another reason for my editing my original post was to give you a on your pc play. I've got to acknowledge the fact that those plays hit and that you share them with everyone on the board.

[Devon]

Again you mention buying points. Sorry for tiring you with the same question but in my case where I can't buy points and I see that you do it makes me think that if CK has to buy points then he doesn't believe they will cover the +6.5 so maybe I should go the other way. This mixes me up big time. What should I do in this situation?

.

I think CK is leaning Dallas, but is buying points to make sure he gets paid. As in he would rate his chances for example from 75-25 to 90-10.

Dallas is his play but just wants that extra bit of cushion!

[isiah121]

CK what made you take Cavs -11? The Cavs has only beated the Hawks by 14 once during the season.

[Vreston]

I think CK is leaning Dallas, but is buying points to make sure he gets paid. As in he would rate his chances for example from 75-25 to 90-10.

Dallas is his play but just wants that extra bit of cushion!

I understand that, but there are plays that CK doesn't need cushion for, that he believes in, period.
The ones he needs cushion for I understand why he's buying it but the question is if I should be so confident on the same play without cushion.

[cs11787]

I understand that, but there are plays that CK doesn't need cushion for, that he believes in, period.
The ones he needs cushion for I understand why he's buying it but the question is if I should be so confident on the same play without cushion.

Shouldnt you be asking yourself that instead of asking others how you should feel? CK buys points ALOT! Like the previous post, he is doing so for a cushion. There are so many games that are lost or won just by a hook. Todays Hou/LAL o/u193 for example only won or lost by one point. Buying points can make a huge difference since as we all know the books know what theyre doing when they make the lines. Which book do you use and why dont you change books?

[corona]

CK what made you take Cavs -11? The Cavs has only beated the Hawks by 14 once during the season.

fade teams coming off a game 7
atlanta sucks on the road
their playground offense won't work against a great playoff defense
cavs rested and anxious to get back to kicking ass
cavs have been a great ats home team. average line of -10, and theyve gone 29-12
the time atlanta covered against cleveland at home, it was a major backdoor. they were down 15+ from the first 5 minutes on, and then flip murray went kobe in the last 3 minutes. dont think they let that happen in a playoff game (it started to happen against detroit, and then brown put his starters back in and they got the cover)

just my thoughts though. ck may have different reasoning.

[wangichu]

So wang, I am suggesting a play for

Orlando/Boston over 188 Game 2
Dallas+6.5 Game 2

If you disagree let me know. I would like to watch the lines and consensus before we pull the trigger. Ideally I would like to see the public with heavy action on the Boston/Orlando under to support the drop. Then we can go the other way. At any rate, we are all set up for tomorrow with Cleveland so far for the 1st half and the game.

The thing that gets at me with denver is their explosive ability so as such, i will not be playing that game as heavily as anything from the monday card and definitely lighter than the cleveland game. It seems like every time dallas lets me down i get a little pussified to wager on them again. Nevertheless i did some research to make me feel better about it and i have to trust the numbers in this one. Dallas really collapsed in the end, giving the game up on an excess of turnovers (20), HIGHLY uncharacteristic of a mavs team was in the low 10 of turnovers. In the regular season matchups between these two, only once did the mavs turn the ball over more than the nugs (2x if you count game 1). Similarly the mavs were one of the best rebounding teams in the league this year (#2 in the ranking system i'm looking at) and outrebounded the nugs in every game except one. There's more, but ultimately, i think that dallas is the right call here for those reasons as well as the reasons i stated before game 1. This series has been too tight to ignore the 6 points. All right, sign me up, just wish i had played denver in game 1. It was the smartest play in the game going in, i just psyched myself into taking the mavs one game early. That line is also indicative of a mavs cover, or else it probably would have seen something higher than a hook off the first opening spread.

also thinking the over is worth a look in this game, but not sure i want to pull the trigger on this one. i just keep looking at the 13 FT attempts by dallas and thinking that is just way too low. They got 24 last time in denver but only 17 the time before. I expect something closer to 24, but i think i may just stay off the total and count my blessings from yesterday.

DAL +6.5 (supported)

Still want to research the other play, but sign me up for dallas. i'll triple up in game 3 if i have to.

[ValHallaYoung]

any chance these would be under 180 atl@cle..?

[cs11787]

That total is actually about 7 points lower than the average total between these two teams in the past. Im guessing thats due to the fact that Atl struggled somewhat at scoring against Miami. If they couldnt score against Miami they will be hurtin against the Cavs.

[isiah121]

The thing is that Cavs is a better scoring team than the Heat.

That total is actually about 7 points lower than the average total between these two teams in the past. Im guessing thats due to the fact that Atl struggled somewhat at scoring against Miami. If they couldnt score against Miami they will be hurtin against the Cavs.

[sweetjones55]

fade teams coming off a game 7
atlanta sucks on the road
their playground offense won't work against a great playoff defense
cavs rested and anxious to get back to kicking ass
cavs have been a great ats home team. average line of -10, and theyve gone 29-12
the time atlanta covered against cleveland at home, it was a major backdoor. they were down 15+ from the first 5 minutes on, and then flip murray went kobe in the last 3 minutes. dont think they let that happen in a playoff game (it started to happen against detroit, and then brown put his starters back in and they got the cover)

just my thoughts though. ck may have different reasoning.

LeBron James was VERY upset with that comeback the Hawks made that night. That is what is really making me lean Cleveland tonight because they will have that backdoor cover in their minds and they will not let the Hawks come back if they are down 20.

The Cavs were up 53-35 and 49-32 in both games @ home vs the Hawks. Also worth noting is that the Cavs beat the Hawks by 14 and 16 points in the 1st quarter of those two home wins. The 1st half and 1st quarter lines may be the play in this game. The 1st half may be a better bet because of the fact that the Cavs may ( I don't think they will) come out flat after such a long layoff.

[suckatmyjob]

hey ck i think you got annoyed by ckblocker and posted lakers/orlando by mistake yesterday for your teaser but I forgot to point it out didnt understand why you like Houston 8.5 so much for competiton and then went with a teaser with laker/orlando

keep up the good work...good luck today

i'm from ATL i dont like the hawks that much but I think you got the right play anytime it seems like the cavs are double digit favors they cover more vs the hawks then when they are single digit however what throws me off is did cleveland had too long of a rest and will come out flat.

[mb19]

One thing to learn about this forum is there is a group of guys that are much more liberal when it comes to buying points then the general public. They are also typically the best cappers on this board so it works in the long run.

[cocknocker]

You're right CK.
You scared me away in a previous post when you said to take them at +2.5 bcs that way Boston needed 2 baskets to win. Since I could only get them at 1.5 I thought it might be a close one and went with Boston. If you had posted before I bet, I would've tailed you bcs you know better and that's for sure.
The Lakers game smelled too fishy to me and I only took the under 193 in that one which cashed. I would've played the second half if I was awake but the time difference is too much for me.
I hope today is a better day.
Cleveland is at -11.5 right now and Denver is at -6.5
That Cleveland spread is kinda big isn't it?
Do you guys think Denver can do it again? I want to go heavy on Denver -6.5 but I don't know if I should. I know they can do it, but will they???



Again you mention buying points. Sorry for tiring you with the same question but in my case where I can't buy points and I see that you do it makes me think that if CK has to buy points then he doesn't believe they will cover the +6.5 so maybe I should go the other way. This mixes me up big time. What should I do in this situation?


Another reason for my editing my original post was to give you a on your pc play. I've got to acknowledge the fact that those plays hit and that you share them with everyone on the board.

Play Dallas+6.5. It's the same as getting them +8. As far as Cleveland is concerned, you just have to put your nuts on the table and come high or stay home. I see a double digit blowout

[cocknocker]

hey ck i think you got annoyed by ckblocker and posted lakers/orlando by mistake yesterday for your teaser but I forgot to point it out didnt understand why you like Houston 8.5 so much for competiton and then went with a teaser with laker/orlando

keep up the good work...good luck today

i'm from ATL i dont like the hawks that much but I think you got the right play anytime it seems like the cavs are double digit favors they cover more vs the hawks then when they are single digit however what throws me off is did cleveland had too long of a rest and will come out flat.

Oh wow, my bad. I didn't mean to list the Lakers as part of my teaser. I mean it sould be obvious that it was an error when I played the Rockets. I meant to say the Rockets. I apologize to the board for that one. I guess that I had the name of the wrong team in my head. After all I am a BIG Laker fan. That was hard to do. I don't like to bet against them ever if I have to.

[JohnMorr08]

Congrats on the PC play !!

I'm just glad it was close in the end - and it didn't take any $$ out of my pocket.

[suckatmyjob]

wow both teams liking dallas tonight....also liking hte over

[cocknocker]

I actually like the Denver/Dallas under, but Denvers' spurt ability bothers me when thinking of selecting the total. Dallas has a lot people on their team that can create their own shot off the dribble as well. So the over is a very likely circumstance. But the line movement suggests that the under is the play. We're just gonna stick with the side. No sense in pissing in the wind.

[cocknocker]

Using the LT rule on our playoff tips sheet (buy 3 points for dogs of +5 to +8, as well as buying 3 points for -8 to -10 or more favorites/Play against any team that wins a game 7 of a series in game 1 of the next series/Fade any team that scores 100 or more in two straight games), I am playing the following as my official plays. These are what I am ACTUALLY playing.

Cleveland-8.5
Dallas+10 ( Caught it at +7)
Cleveland -6 1st half was already played

[wangichu]

Oh wow, my bad. I didn't mean to list the Lakers as part of my teaser. I mean it sould be obvious that it was an error when I played the Rockets. I meant to say the Rockets. I apologize to the board for that one. I guess that I had the name of the wrong team in my head. After all I am a BIG Laker fan. That was hard to do. I don't like to bet against them ever if I have to.

i know, that one hurt. I won some good cash, but i couldn't lay the ML on the rockets because i really wanted the lakers to just win by 8 or less. Oh well, though, that just means it's going to take some good capping to dissect this series, now. Also, it will mean that the lakers will most likely get a road victory meaning there will be some good ML money on at least one of those games, my bet is game 3, but we'll see how it unfolds.

[sweetjones55]

CK, what is the juice on a 3 point buy on your site to +10? -200?

[SmackdownV]

As for me.....

Atlanta has lost me a crap-ton of $$$$$ by not scoring or on the other hand Miami not scoring.

So I am going to take a two game $250.00 Parlay on the following:
Cavs -11.5
Over 179.5

Lebron is gonna smoke the ATL in game 1.

Final score: Cavs 115 ATL 88

[wangichu]

CK, what is the juice on a 3 point buy on your site to +10? -200?

3 pt buys should cost -170 juice

[corona]

The thing is that Cavs is a better scoring team than the Heat.

i dont think they score that much in blowouts though, which is what this will be.

i think 98-75 is far more likely than 105-80

when the cavs win by more than 15 at home, the over/under is 7-13

[joanapoker]

I'm on the UNDER at CLEV 179.5

CLE defense will take care of the game and they also will mark the pass of the scoring! Low score game.

good luck to all

[SmackdownV]

Sorry Brothers.....

That OVER is MONEY....Clev -11.5 is Money....

Denver is Money....Denver over is Money.....

Watch and learn from the Smack.

[wangichu]

i dont think they score that much in blowouts though, which is what this will be.

i think 98-75 is far more likely than 105-80

when the cavs win by more than 15 at home, the over/under is 7-13

bingo... if cleveland subdues the hawks quickly, and/or the hawks flop on the road as per usual, they won't score that much. I think the hawks team total under is a very solid play to be honest. If they actually do keep this one close it will be through defense.

[sweetjones55]

3 pt buys should cost -170 juice

Wow that really sucks. I use 5dimes and a 3 point buy is -200 and a 2.5 point buy is -175.

[Vreston]

Play Dallas+6.5. It's the same as getting them +8. As far as Cleveland is concerned, you just have to put your nuts on the table and come high or stay home. I see a double digit blowout

OK CK. Thanks for the input.
My question about the point buying was not just about tonight's games but a more general question. Of course in the end I make my own decisions but since I follow your posts it makes me think that's all.

[SmackdownV]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh No!

The Smack is looking pretty smart right now....

Yeah booooyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[SexyMit]

You won't be looking very good after both games. There is still alot of time left to play. Anything can happen

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Ck! Have you got the Mavs +10 as a regular play?