CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[ValHallaYoung]

mine lal-12.5 ck you think these would still be in a PC heavy choice hmy
:?

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

how was it a lost??? the over was 210

The guys just being an idiot and not paying out. It did go over and win but a tool is a tool and I'm short moula from it!

[RoagBettor]

Damn I'm in a bind. How can I bet against my hometown C's (I grew up near Boston but live in Houston) in a Game 5 at the Garden? But how can I go against CK?

Oh, what to do, what to do?

[sweetjones55]

Roag, don't bet against Boston. Just stay off the game and bet on the Black Mamba

[RoagBettor]

Black Mamba?

[jefyulo]

Kobe Bryant is the black mamba.

[RoagBettor]

LOL OK thanks. I'm on the Lakers and will probably lay off the C's unless CK makes Orlando a PC Play.

[sweetjones55]

The Black Mamba is the largest,fastest, deadliest snake in Africa. When the Black Mamba strikes, it scores. AKA Kobe Bryant

[kmarinouofm]

CK i think you are 100% right... from what i can tell 75% of the public is on boston and yet we got some sharp ML movement going the other way?? I think vegas knows that everyone is going to be 50 /50 on the Houston Game especially after the last outing... So what NBA game is going to pay the light bill today?? Has to be Orlando.. there is no other explanation for it...

Okay wang, the Celtics came out at -3.5 at the LVSC on 5/11/09 10:03am with a moneyline of -145/+125. Now the line is down to 2.5 -125/+105 on some books with only 30% of the money on the Magic. I am all over this one. Hit me back in the morning.

Orlando+2.5 It's a sharp play

The line will have to go back up a bit, but it won't get back to 3.5. I say watch it and see what happens over night. if it ever goes to 4, I am banging this one good

[Bayno82]

does this change anything?

Hey CK found this on another forum just wondering if this changes your PC play on the Lakers with Odom been questionable

From sportsnetwork:

El Segundo, CA (Sports Network) - Los Angeles Lakers forward Lamar Odom has been diagnosed with a bruised lower back following a CT scan and MRI exam on Monday and is questionable for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series with Houston.

Odom got airborne on a drive to the hoop and made contact with the Rockets' Shane Battier before landing hard on the floor during Sunday's Game 4 loss to Houston. He lay on the floor writhing in pain before getting up under his own power with 6:01 remaining in the third quarter but did not return.

The 10-year NBA pro is averaging 13.7 points, 10 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.7 blocks in 34.2 minutes through nine games in the playoffs, including five starts.

In 78 regular season games (32 starts) this season, the Rhode Island product posted averages of 11.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.3 blocks over 29.7 minutes per game.

LA and Houston are knotted at two games apiece in this best-of-seven series with Game 5 set for Tuesday in Los Angeles.

[RoagBettor]

CK generally does not change his picks based upon injury reports.

[k22t]

Also another interesting tidbit: With the Mavs having not covered for the 4th straight time in the playoffs they fall into a subset that is incredible if the Denver line is over 9.5 for the next game. Believe it or not, Dallas will be the play in the next game.

Line is up to 8.5 today, after opening at 7.5 last night.. Take Denver now?

[BL]

Line is up to 8.5 today, after opening at 7.5 last night.. Take Denver now?

NO, Dallas is the Pick. Wait for the line to to even grow further. Think we can get at least +9,5 tomorrow. Denver won't win by doubledigits. Dallas did not win last game to get blown out tomorrow. I think i'm going to play Dallas +X 1st Half.

[cocknocker]

With consensus numbers of 99% to 1% on the sides the spread had to go up. But what's not lost on me is the fact that the home spread for Denver came out only a half point more than the other two home games which they dominated. And then as usual, I ask myself. If Vegas where to make a shit load of money on this game, what would have to happen? The public would have to drive the line up and the dog would cover if not win outright. It would cause a roar in the backrooms for sure!

I am riding with Dallas and the under in that game. I think that they will walk it up and try to get Dirk to score 40 points again.

I am gonna pound the shit out of the under though!

[SmackdownV]

Smackdowns 4 Game Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Parlay of the night:

Boston -2
Boston OVER 192
Lakers -12
Lakers OVER 198.5

For no other reason than I am taking the Bets Vegas wants me to take......Reverse Psychology on those Bitches in the back rooms.

This 4 game parlay is gonna pay for some lapdances at the boobie joint this weekend.

[cocknocker]

Taking Orlando +6 on a teaser with Lakers-8.

I also am playing Orlando+5 straight with a 3 point buy.

I liked the line at 2.5, but I don't like it at 2 to play for a challenge. Unless it goes back up to 3, the I am more than happy to just roll with the totals that i cooked up (Both unders) and then we can enjoy our Orlando money with the points applied to the spread. If we are to win out, we have to roll with the strongest plays, and that would be both of the unders, IMO.

[KingKing]

thanks very much for sharing your insights ck, wang and others in this thread, so much valuable info its ridiculous. BOL!

[BCaldwell32]

Hey CK, I do not by points very often but agree it is the right play in Laker game tonight. My book allows me to buy up to 2 points and it makes the line Lakers -10 -150. Is the vigorish to high for a 2 point buy?

[KingKing]

its right. usually 10 pts. juice per half point bought.

[peeiempee]

Smackdowns 4 Game Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Parlay of the night:

Boston -2
Boston OVER 192
Lakers -12
Lakers OVER 198.5

For no other reason than I am taking the Bets Vegas wants me to take......Reverse Psychology on those Bitches in the back rooms.

This 4 game parlay is gonna pay for some lapdances at the boobie joint this weekend.

We are on the same page again today lets cash this!!!

[wangichu]

Taking Orlando +6 on a teaser with Lakers-8.

I also am playing Orlando+5 straight with a 3 point buy.

I liked the line at 2.5, but I don't like it at 2 to play for a challenge. Unless it goes back up to 3, the I am more than happy to just roll with the totals that i cooked up (Both unders) and then we can enjoy our Orlando money with the points applied to the spread. If we are to win out, we have to roll with the strongest plays, and that would be both of the unders, IMO.

i've got +3 on betus... do we have to see it somewhere else to roll as a challenge play?

[BCaldwell32]

Celtics -2 3 units

Lakers -10 (2 point buy) 5 units

[SmackdownV]

Nice BCalwell32

No need to buy points on the Lakers however.....

This ones a gonna get UGLY.

[Cassidy]

CK, how the heck are you more confident on those unders over a PC Play. Is not the PC Play as reliable as it use to be if not played with 3 point buy? If so, how do you more likely with the unders for the challenge?

By the way, you already played it, or just the teaser with Orl? where did you buy points?.. betus has lakers at -12.5 all the way.. anysite to buy lakers -9 at -170?

[cocknocker]

i've got +3 on betus... do we have to see it somewhere else to roll as a challenge play?

If you've got +3 then play it, wang, and put it on the challenge page. You've got 7 minutes otherwise don't trip. We can go with two HEAVY bets on other things for our last two picks!

[cocknocker]

CK, how the heck are you more confident on those unders over a PC Play. Is not the PC Play as reliable as it use to be if not played with 3 point buy? If so, how do you more likely with the unders for the challenge?

By the way, you already played it, or just the teaser with Orl? where did you buy points?.. betus has lakers at -12.5 all the way.. anysite to buy lakers -9 at -170?

Everything has been played according to what I put on the thread. I didn't put as much weight on the unders as I did on the PC Play. Don't know if you can find a site where you can buy points down to 9 anymore with the line being 12.5 most places. The best you can get is 9.5, which is summarily the same thing as 9. It's gonna take a 10 point Laker win to cash the ticket.

[Cassidy]

CK, but last time you talked about u said to wait along the day for the line to possibly drop at -11.5 or -11 but it didnt. So you finally played at -9 with 3 point buy or -8.5 with 3.5 point buy?

Well so the official PC Play is Lal -9. At -12 its still a strong play but not the PC, and you didnt choose it for the challenge bc of the rules about not allowing buying points.. its this all right?

thx dude, and GL to all of us!!

[Abrcrom12]

4pt teaser :
OR +6
LA -8

Also a fun teaser:
OR +2
LA +12
LA Under 199

Now, just need to figure out how much to put on LA in the 1H and on the game, and whether to buy points or not......
Hmmmmmm.....bankroll it....

[isiah121]

CK, something's strange about the Rockets/Lakers line. 62% bettors are on Lakers -12 but that line remains the same all these time without a movement. Is there something we're missing?

[esz04]

Anyone on the Magic for the game taking the Celtics 2H for a nice middle?

[cocknocker]

Ah yes, thank God for point buying! I love insurance

[cnleaf]

Insurance is making effect here. OMG I didnt put insurance on the PC Play. I just bought a hook to get down to 11.5 on Greek. 3pt buying cost too much on that site. Hope it is going well.

[gyftosgreek]

nice call there ck.

[Abrcrom12]

Eventually went with:
LA 1Q -4
LA 1H -7 HEAVY
LA -9.5 (bought 3) HEAVY

[SoonerGreg]

CK,
I'm thinking Rockets -0.5 2H. Where you at?