Leans for Friday 3/13/09

Dexter · 03-12-09, 08:39 PM

phx3 - if you dont see the thread started by 7am eastern each day, hook it up.

Dexter · 03-12-09, 08:42 PM

Projected/Actual

Magic 9/8
Hornets 4.5/4
Rockets 2.5/PK

No line yet dal/gs.....nothing too surprising for fridays games. i can see that pk in hou. the books are onto charl clearly. solid ats team.

SportsTerminator · 03-12-09, 08:45 PM

The Hornets are playing the Bucks tomorrow. The Bucks only lost by one last time they played IN NEW ORLEANS. The Point Spread is -7 Hornets. Charlie Vanilioah is playing really well and the bucks are trying to get in the playoffs. I would stay away from this one. The Orlando -8 pointspread looks good, the only pointspread I like though. The Bobcats are a tough team, don't sleep on them.

Dexter · 03-12-09, 09:10 PM

Sunday 3/15-

sorry to jump ahead, but this game just jumped off my calendar. the hawks have been impressive at home covering the last 5 games, while the blazers are 12-18 ats on the road. forget all that - the schedule makers have graced the blazers with a 1pm eastern game on sunday (10am to them) - this is one my favorite angles in sports. playing the east coast team in an early afternoon game whatever the sport is. throw in some revenge for the hawks after losing by 10 on 2/20 at port, and you have a very solid sunday play here.

-hawks (big)

*the suns visit goldenstate on sunday night - projected total of 275? ha

Dexter · 03-12-09, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

The Hornets are playing the Bucks tomorrow. The Bucks only lost by one last time they played IN NEW ORLEANS. The Point Spread is -7 Hornets. Charlie Vanilioah is playing really well and the bucks are trying to get in the playoffs. I would stay away from this one. The Orlando -8 pointspread looks good, the only pointspread I like though. The Bobcats are a tough team, don't sleep on them.

hornets are only 4. 7 would be way too much.

The_Kid · 03-12-09, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

*the suns visit goldenstate on sunday night - projected total of 275? ha

Oh man, that'll be a fun game to watch. Even if they set a total that high, would I be able to take the UNDER?

I know you're joking but I see the total being set at 239 or 240.

I remember the Knicks and Warriors playing earlier this year and I don't know what the total was set at but the Warriors hung 144 on them.

Dexter · 03-12-09, 09:35 PM

yeah, def in the low 240's....

csimmalavong · 03-12-09, 10:13 PM

how the **** is detroit only pickem at toronto..
its toronto !!!

csimmalavong · 03-12-09, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Sunday 3/15-

sorry to jump ahead, but this game just jumped off my calendar. the hawks have been impressive at home covering the last 5 games, while the blazers are 12-18 ats on the road. forget all that - the schedule makers have graced the blazers with a 1pm eastern game on sunday (10am to them) - this is one my favorite angles in sports. playing the east coast team in an early afternoon game whatever the sport is. throw in some revenge for the hawks after losing by 10 on 2/20 at port, and you have a very solid sunday play here.

-hawks (big)

*the suns visit goldenstate on sunday night - projected total of 275? ha

lets hope vegas doesnt catch on and realizes atlanta is ballin at home !
the line may be as high as -6 or -7...not sure though

Jimbo42 · 03-12-09, 11:13 PM

Dex, I see you are running the show today... Right on! I'm about to turn in for the night but I've got a couple games Ima lookin at... Will write up later if I make them plays.. I"m leaning towards...
Minnesota + 5ish
Milwaukee + 4or 5ish

We will see where these lines end up..

GL to everyone

Dexter · 03-12-09, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by csimmalavong

lets hope vegas doesnt catch on and realizes atlanta is ballin at home !
the line may be as high as -6 or -7...not sure though

-4 sounds right

cocknocker · 03-13-09, 12:33 AM

Leans for Friday 3/13/09

Okay I don't have much time so here is what I will be playing

Boston 1st quarter -3.5
Boston 1st half-7

I may end up taking Boston for the game too. The Grizzlies have mailed it in and the Celtics are in the race for homecourt advantage and the number 1 spot in the East. the Grizzlies are getting blown out by lesser teams lately. This one will get ugly very quickly. The Celtics are playing off of a loss, and need to make up ground.

Orlando 1st quarter -2.5
Orlando 1st half -4.5

Orlando playing against Washington? Whatever. Orlando needs to keep winning because the Eastern crown is still attainable with the right factors. The Wizards are a speed bump. Orlando keeps on rolling though. they are ne of the best road teams in the league.

Cleveland 1st quarter -3
Cleveland/Sacramento 1st quarter over 50.5

Cleveland is the superior team and they want home court advantage in the East for the playoffs Sacramento is a notoriouslyslow startin team. The Cavs will get out on them early and often. The Kings have no defensive presence in the middle. The Cavs could beat this team handily without LeBron. That he is on the team is a bonus.

New Jersey 1st quarter +2

What I am going to do is to tease Boston and Orlando with 4 points apiece. These teams are playing for something.

Boston-8.5/Orlando-4 Teased with 4 points*

Cleveland-3.5 3rd quarter
Cleveland team total over 53.5 2nd half
Portland-3 4th quarter

CBB

Kentucky+100 moneyline or more LSU never beats em' 2x in a season
Kentucky 1st half moneyline -105
V.Tech+13 (This line will go up, Carolina is a VERY public team)
V.Tech+6.5 1st half
Wisconsin-160 moneyline

The_Kid · 03-13-09, 03:35 AM

Got to take West Virginia tomorrow after Syracuse played a 6 OT game. They'll have less than 24 hours in between games and this will be their 3rd game in 3 days. Their legs have to be tired.

The_Kid · 03-13-09, 04:05 AM

Detroit is coming off a game where they never should have lost. What better way to turn it around than to play the Raptors? The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning by an average of almost 13 points per game. The Raptors are not doing good at the moment but I don't see it turning around for them anytime soon. They are 0-5 ATS in the their last 5 games and have lost those last 5 games by an average of almost 9 points. I might have to wait off and see if Rasheed Wallace is playing. If he plays, it's a definite play for me. Until then, this is just a lean.

The OVER between the T'Wolves and Knicks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. In addition, the OVER has hit at a 4-1 clip the last 5 meetings where the T'Wolves have been the home team. Average totals have been set around 198 while the scores have averaged about 203. The last total was set at 215 and the teams managed to hit 227 back in December. With a slight adjustment to the total, the lines makers know both these teams will put up points. Duhon and Foye are day-to-day with minor injuries. Might have to wait on their pending statuses for tomorrow. Otherwise, I'm playing the OVER 218.

Will also look at some 1Q plays for Orlando (I hope Turkoglu plays) and Boston. I am most certainly playing West Virginia tomorrow. I find it very hard to believe that Syracuse will be able to keep up. I mentioned in the CBB thread that Syracuse basically played 3/4 of another game because of the 6 OTs vs UCONN. Essentially, they'll almost be playing 4 games in 3 days. Their legs will definitely be feeling it as they'll have less than 20 hours to rest and prepare for the Mountaineers.

Scratched the Detroit play completely. Sheed is out for the game and I don't like the matchups the Pistons have with the Raptors. I don't know who will guard Bargnani out on the perimeter. Bosh and Marion should do well against the likes of McDyess, Maxiell, and Kwame Brown. Wallace does so many things for them that don't show up in the box score. I'll find another game to replace it with. GL to those that do decide to take the Pistons.

SportsTerminator · 03-13-09, 05:31 AM

um...Lebron might be out...
...

Jimbo42 · 03-13-09, 05:40 AM

What up!
Leans so far on:
Milwaukee +4
Minnesota +4

Will write up later..

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 05:46 AM

My picks for tomorrow's game:

NJ @ POR -> NJ+6.5

NJ lost what should have been a win in Golden State and I'm sure everyone there is hungry for a win now that the race for the 8th spot in the playoffs is getting tighter and tighter with each passing game. Also in their last 3 meetings in the Rose Garden, NJ has not lost more than 5 points (and even won one) and I think the trend should continue on with this. We all saw what happened in the debacle that is DAL @ POR where Nowitzki manhandled the blazers like they were kindergarten. Portlan will most likely win but NJ can cover this one (And the nets sure like those games where they shoot the three at the last moment like in PHI and ORL, with mixed results).

CLE @ SAC -> SAC +10

Look what happened when Cleveland visited the Clippers. They were destroyed for 3 quarters and if they were'nt the Clippers, Cavs would have lost by 10+ in that game. The public bet goes to cleveland, but lets remember what happened when Denver came to Arco in b2b games; Denver lost, surprisingly. This is no coincidence either. The moment Kevin Martin decides to suit up for the Kings, Cleveland will have their hands full. And Arco has been known to be merciless to road teams (although the attendance has gone down considerably ) and even if the Cavs win this one, Kings will definitely cover.

NO @ MILWAUKEE -> MIL +4

Peja and Morrison may miss this game, and it doesnt help that they are two of the go-to-guys in the perimeter. NO has a reputation for breaking down in road games and even though they won against Washington, it was a tough battle decided only at the 2nd part of the 4th quarter when Washington reverted to the crappy team that they are. Milwaukee are also one of the many teams that are fighting for the 8th spot in the playoffs and I'm sure they will try to play at 100% efficiency at home. Milwaukee will cover AND win this one.

ORL @ WAS -> ORL -ANYTHING

1.Road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
2.ORL is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games.
3.WAS has 4 guys injured (ouch)
4.ORL has won their last 4 meetings with WAS (average lead: 15 mother whopping points)

And most of all...

5. WASHINGTON PLAYS CRAP, more than OKC(ATS monsters), SAC and LAC (Beats top teams)

HOU @ CHA -> CHA+1 or PASS / OVER 148.5(BIG BIG BIG PLAY)

Charlotte has been on fire, going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and is 6-1 in their last 7(losing only to San Antonio). Houston has stamped their dominance over charlotte, winning the last 6 meetings but this game screams "TRAP" for me. The bobcats are perfectly healthy and they are one of the many teams(again) vying for the coveted playoff spot. And what's with the very low line? is this another trap? or a gift from the gambling gods?

DET @ TOR -> DETROIT -1.5 or PASS(Leaning on pass, bigtime)

It has the makings of a trap game but at the same time the line seems reasonable. Detroit is missing iverson(who cares) and Sheed looks down for the count too. Craptors have been on a six game losing skid and if everything goes well today, it might look like it will continue to seven. Without Wallace, the Bargnani/Bosh/Marion connection will definitely give the Mcdyess/Prince a tough time in the paint.

MEM @ BOS -> BOS -10

Even if 5 players are injured, it doesnt take away the fact that its the Boston Celtics against the Memphis Grizzlies. Boston has lost 2 consecutive games without Rondo and I'm damn sure Doc Rivers will explode if they make it to three(with ORL tailing their a$$es). Marbury should have felt that the losses were because of him not being able to provide the plays Rondo created, so he'll try to be red hot tomorrow.

CHI @ PHI -> PASS

Drew Gooden is gone. Deng is injured and Thomas looks doubtful. Thaddeus Young has been playing the best basketball of his career and Igoudala has finally decided to let the other players shine. But somebody showed me enough evidence that I should pass on this game today.

NY @ MIN -> NY-anything(Huge play)

Minnesota may have won the last two meetings but they are missing 4 players(including the red hot Foye and Jefferson) in this game. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and Minessota is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. It doesnt help that Larry Hughes is starting to get the hang of NY's game and
having a bench player named "NATE ROBINSON" must mean a lot. NY will win this and I'm betting big on this one.

Phew... tiring writeup, I'm not suited for this.

pho3nix32 · 03-13-09, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

NY @ MIN -> NY-anything(Huge play)

Minnesota may have won the last two meetings but they are missing 4 players(including the red hot Foye and Jefferson) in this game. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and Minessota is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. It doesnt help that Larry Hughes is starting to get the hang of NY's game and
having a bench player named "NATE ROBINSON" must mean a lot. NY will win this and I'm betting big on this one.

if you say underdog is 8-3 ATS, then dont you think minny is the play?

pho3nix32 · 03-13-09, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

The OVER between the T'Wolves and Knicks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. In addition, the OVER has hit at a 4-1 clip the last 5 meetings where the T'Wolves have been the home team. Average totals have been set around 198 while the scores have averaged about 203. The last total was set at 215 and the teams managed to hit 227 back in December. With a slight adjustment to the total, the lines makers know both these teams will put up points. Duhon and Foye are day-to-day with minor injuries. Might have to wait on their pending statuses for tomorrow. Otherwise, I'm playing the OVER 218.

im with you here Kid. 2 running teams playing against each other...another "all star game scoring" in the making

MVFC182 · 03-13-09, 06:47 AM

Why is the Orlando/Wiz line below double digits? Power rating is -13, not to mention the mountain of stats that favour Orlando, and Washington with nothing to play for. I think this will be the play.

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

if you say underdog is 8-3 ATS, then dont you think minny is the play?

I guess I have'nt elaborated more. What I meant in that is that even though the underdog has the edge in the ATS in the matchup, it doesnt matter because for the last 10 games minnesota has been playing crap.

joanapoker · 03-13-09, 07:25 AM

Yesterday a classic Underdog (+) cover and a SU cover on the nights that there is only two games!
My picks yesterday: 2-0-0
LAL+3 W
CAV-4 W

Not much to say about my picks today:
PHI -3.5
NYK -4

Dexter · 03-13-09, 07:26 AM

nm

Dexter · 03-13-09, 07:27 AM

nice writeups king bookie - welcome.

Dexter · 03-13-09, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by The_Kid

Got to take West Virginia tomorrow after Syracuse played a 6 OT game. They'll have less than 24 hours in between games and this will be their 3rd game in 3 days. Their legs have to be tired.

3rd game in 3 days for w. virg as well. plus, these are 19 year old kids - not 27 year old pros. im prob gonna play it, but not as big as i had originally planned.

MVFC182 · 03-13-09, 07:31 AM

Maybe play WV First half Dex? Syracuse come out sluggish and tired, eventually the class shows through and the win in the end but first half could be the play.

Dexter · 03-13-09, 07:47 AM

why the heck did you ask me to make the friday thread? lol

Dexter · 03-13-09, 07:48 AM

college folks - what do you all think of west virg tonight being that syracuse is coming off of 6OT's? i was going to make a play on this myself, but after looking deeper - syracuse really owns them (9 of 10 su) and has won and covered their last 6 games. thoughts?

pho3nix32 · 03-13-09, 08:00 AM

"Foye said he's "90 percent sure" he'll play Friday, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. probably more after being injured on Monday against Washington in the team's 10th consecutive loss.
Advice: Foye was injured in the fourth quarter against the Wizards on Monday when he landed awkwardly after trying to catch a lob pass from Mike Miller. He came down on Washington point guard Javaris Crittenton's foot and his ankle bent severely as he crumpled to the court under the basket. Foye didn't seem optimistic about playing earlier this week, but sounds ready to play against the Knicks." --- Stats, Inc

Dexter · 03-13-09, 08:04 AM

3/14 - sat

the heat simply have the jazz's number. miami has won the last 5 home games su vs utah, and also beat them in utah this year. 8 in a row ats for mia in the series. 1pm eastern game on sat should favor the home team, as utah's body clocks will still be in the AM.

-heat
___________________
i will continue to ride the suns over during this favorable stretch of games until a game stays under. i could see a trend continuing with the matchups they have here in march. this will be my 3rd straight large play on the over since the 3/10 home game vs the mavs.

-over suns (big)
____________________

*i have a slight lean on the spurs off a su loss vs the rockets - will see what hou does tonight before i make a decision.

peterpan19 · 03-13-09, 08:32 AM

anyone taking Wash U +1 today ? Seems almost too easy for me, Wash U owned AZ State this year ??

and Wash is 9-1 SU against AZ state .....

repski · 03-13-09, 08:50 AM

Bulls +3

Bulls are woking with revenge for a loss back in December.
Chicago presents a matchup problem for the 76ers as they struggle against quick guard play and the Bulls point guard Derrick Rose can exploit that weakness while Ben Gordon & company knock down three-pointers versus a weak perimeter defense.
The visitor in this series has won the two previous meetings this season.
The underdog has covered ATS in six of the last seven.
Chicago is 7-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog after losing SU/ATS on the road.
Conference road underdogs in the NBA are 31-17-1 ATS after losing SU/ATS on the road in their last game.

repski · 03-13-09, 08:56 AM

CK,

some interesting stats that keep me away from the Boston game....

Memphis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a dog.
Memphis is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
In Boston's last 7 home games they are also 1-6 ATS.
The Grizzlies aways play the Celtics tough. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Memphis is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs.

repski · 03-13-09, 09:00 AM

Miss St. +2

Mississippi State has played very well down the stretch and I like how they have gelled down the stretch.
Miss St. is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.

The Gamecocks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.

Mississippi State has won and covered the last two meetings with South Carolina