Leans for Friday 3/13/09

deldgeetar · 03-13-09, 05:31 PM

Hey, first post.

My play for this evening is Dallas -1. GSW looks great at home, but a few things we should consider:

1. Dallas is 16-4 in their last 20 games.

2. Warriors play zero defense.

3. Dallas just beat Phoenix in Phoenix. Phoenix and GSW play the same style, and no one can tell me Ellis+Biedrins is superior to Nash+Shaq.

4. There is no one on GSW that can cover Dirk Nowinske. As soon as Dallas pulls ahead Nelson will panic and go super small, and the lead will only widen for Dallas. Nowinski is averaging 25.5 PPG this season. Expect over 30 tonight versus the team that upset his #1 seeded team in the playoffs.

5. Jason Terry will have a huge night because GSW do not close out on 3 point shooters.

6. GSW went up 11 on the Nets with 2 minutes to go and won by only four points. Dallas can score and can get stops on the other end. GSW cannot do this in crunch time.

This all adds up to a win for Dallas.

I would take the over on the points as well for this one!

Karayilan9 · 03-13-09, 05:35 PM

Cleveland 1st QTR.

Magic 1st QTR.

Boston 1st QTR.

I don't think those need explanation.

Portland 1st QTR - Portland are the 2nd best 1st QTR team at home over the last 10 games winning 80% of their 1st QTR's, New Jersey have won 3 of their last 10 1st QTRs away and overall have won 44% of their 1st QTR's.

76'ERS 1st QTR - They are one of the best 1st QTR sides in the NBA and even better at home however, their recent performances havn't been encouraging, how do you guys rate 76'ers in this game? I need some help with it lol

Except 76'ers I will take these teams for every QTR untill they win, there is a very high percentage that these teams will win one QTR, I just hope they get it all done in the 1st.

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 05:38 PM

Deld....welcome to the board and not a bad 1st post...however...

when a team's got your number a team's got your number and in the last 20 games between these 2 teams and that's with Dirk the Dallas Mavs are an awful 7 - 13 ATS and 9-11 SU so very hard for me to back them

BmoreBucco · 03-13-09, 05:57 PM

Baylor's run ends tonight, Texas actually shows their talent tonight.

Texas -3.5 (bought hook) (-120)

Maryland will have to rely on Greivus Vasquez big time tonight, seeing as they will probably get doubled up in rebounds. He plays well in the spotlight.

Vazquez over 23 points + assists (-130)

Chump change parlay:
Pistons -1
Duquesne +3
Buffalo -7.5
(all at -110)

cocknocker · 03-13-09, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

CK,

Are you playing WV heavy looks like the play of the day??

I haven't decided on playing either of them yet. But West Virginia does look good considering that the Orange played so many last overtimes last night. I'm gonna watch the game between Villanova and whoever the hell, and I will make my final decision then....

cocknocker · 03-13-09, 06:05 PM

Oh damn, here we go, UAB is already playing, lol! The start times of these games are all f*cked up. Well maybe i'll jump in at the half!

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 06:13 PM

ok what i hate just me observing but when lines open and Tulsa is favor than all of a sudden UAB is favor at game time more than likely you got better odds betting on Tulsa the orginal favor....

but we will see all these lines and times messing me up but did put in all my 7-8 pm NBA plays depending on how those goes I'll be betting on the later games more

shoebox · 03-13-09, 06:14 PM

Just booked
Louisville -4.5 X2

deldgeetar · 03-13-09, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by suckatmyjob

Deld....welcome to the board and not a bad 1st post...however...

when a team's got your number a team's got your number and in the last 20 games between these 2 teams and that's with Dirk the Dallas Mavs are an awful 7 - 13 ATS and 9-11 SU so very hard for me to back them

Hey I agree that Dallas's record against GSW is pretty bad. However, GSW this year is just horrendous compared to the last 3 years. They're the youngest team in the league and this is to be expected. I've watched just about every one of their games, and when the opposing team plays defense and can shoot (which Dallas does pretty well) they lose big. In addition, they have no one that can stay in front of a good point guard. Jason Kidd will have free reign tonight to go where he wants.

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 06:21 PM

sold me on 2nd half haha sucker me in

everyone fade me fade me not sure why but I like UAB -1 for 2nd half

and up top i like Tulsa whole game haha

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 06:39 PM

ck, could ther game times seem screwed up to you because SBR.com hasn't adjusted the time stamp on posts? Mine hasn't changed for daylight savings, so I keep getting screwed up for times too.

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 06:43 PM

temple 2nd half anyone? +3.5 looks good to me

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 06:50 PM

Memphis 16 - Boston 9 atm.

Wow, didnt even think Memphis can make a lead more than 3.

The_Kid · 03-13-09, 06:54 PM

Boston b*tches ain't covering this 1Q spread. Memphis is shooting 8-9 from the field. WTF?

actionaddict86 · 03-13-09, 06:54 PM

NEW YORK (-220) NEW ORLEANS (-220) CLEVELAND (-650) PORTLAND (-300) DALLAS -1.5
five team parlay....yummy

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 06:59 PM

NY looks like a solid play to me but I don't know abouut dallas. GSW has whooped their asses before and Dallas is a notoriously bad team (even with the FLUKE win at Rose Garden) and Turiaf can block the lights out of Nowitzki.

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:15 PM

can anyone tell me why I shouldnt pound the total for the 2nd half Orlando game? over 102 looks VERY low. I love that over!

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 07:18 PM

Washington is a bad defensive team. However, even before the first half ended, ORL has been playing its bench players (possibly to rest the starters in preparation for the playoffs) so you might expect a low output from them.

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:20 PM

good call. hopefully that wont affect Orlando covering the 7.5 for the game.

I didnt even realize players were getting benched so early

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 07:22 PM

no no no orlando needs to move on up this is their chance to catch up to 2nd or 1st when Lebron and Cavs and Boston celtics might be struggling plus i need orlando and over whole game hehe

washington has nothing to play for just run and gun run and gun

that being said

im playing Under 101.5 for 2nd Half ...i have over 199.5 whole game so good middle

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:23 PM

yeah, I'll stay away from the 2nd half. just like to see the game spread cash.

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:24 PM

Especially where NY/Min over is scary right now. I know its early, but it'd be nice to see Min score put up some early points. I was hoping to know if that bet would win by halftime.

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 07:25 PM

NY is leading by a whopping 10 points in 1Q. hopefully the trend continues on.

Memphis owned Boston at 1Q (shooting 8 in their first 9 shots!). Why are crappy teams playing so damn great against top tier teams?!

Indiana is pounding Atlanta to the ground (in their home court at that!)

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:29 PM

looks like boston is fighting back, but lets not forget the celts have injury woes right now.

And yeah, NY is killing it....which hurts the over considering T'Wolves dont feel like scoring buckets tonight

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 07:31 PM

betting the over and watching 1 team not score at all to start is almost as bad as taking the under and watching the 1st quarter end with a 60+ point total....almost as bad, but I'll still stick with my overs.

deldgeetar · 03-13-09, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

NY looks like a solid play to me but I don't know abouut dallas. GSW has whooped their asses before and Dallas is a notoriously bad team (even with the FLUKE win at Rose Garden) and Turiaf can block the lights out of Nowitzki.

Turiaf will play 10 minutes tops. Biedrins will be in for the most part. Nelson doesn't care about defense, and Turiaf is by far GSW's best defender, followed by Jackson. Then the rest of the team doesn't even close out on shooters, let alone defend.

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 07:43 PM

UAB 2nd H

texhooper · 03-13-09, 08:07 PM

this knicks/wuffs over is pathetic. these teams are horrible.

the grizzlies are giving the celtics a run for their money in boston.

the wizards are giving the magic a run for their money in the fourth quarter.

toronto isn't looking bad either.

i'm really tired of shitty teams.

BmoreBucco · 03-13-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by BmoreBucco

Maryland will have to rely on Greivus Vasquez big time tonight, seeing as they will probably get doubled up in rebounds. He plays well in the spotlight.

Vazquez over 23 points + assists (-130)

Vazquez went for 22 and 9, coming through nicely.

Two more for tonight:

Desean Butler's athleticism should be effective against those weary Orange legs.

Butler over 23.5 points + rebounds

Gerald Henderson is just a beast.

Henderson over 22.5 points + assists

Also, I know CK isn't impressed with Washington, but I have been and I'm going with them in a pick'em.

Washington Pick'em

suckatmyjob · 03-13-09, 08:16 PM

man when did teams start benching so early in NBA

just for fun parlay

all home teams for last 3 games for the day

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 08:17 PM

Huh? where have you been?

It has been a tradition especially when the playoffs are so damn close.

jaymac82980 · 03-13-09, 08:19 PM

anyone know what the deal with cleveland is? Is lebron playing? why is the spread dropping?

Dana4U · 03-13-09, 08:26 PM

It could be Ilgauskas - he was listed as questionable since he broke his nose in last night's game.

King_Bookie · 03-13-09, 08:27 PM

ORL @ Was -> ORL -8.5

ORL WINS BY 9! GODDAMN TOO MUCH!

CP Thrizzle · 03-13-09, 08:28 PM

CK, WVU/Syracuse tips in 10... you playing it?