Leans for Friday 3/13/09

[pho3nix32]

phx3 - if you dont see the thread started by 7am eastern each day, hook it up.

alrighty dex why 2 mafia threads today?

[repski]

Maybe play WV First half Dex? Syracuse come out sluggish and tired, eventually the class shows through and the win in the end but first half could be the play.

I'm looking @ the under in that game...WVU #1 D in the Big East/maybe a little letdown after beating Pitt....Syracuse tired legs.

Seems like the books realized that NC line of 13 was too high...its down to -11 rather quickly

[Dexter]

alrighty dex why 2 mafia threads today?

i asked the mods to delete this thread - ck asked me to start the thread, then must have forgot

[The General]

Hey guys. Dexter, I copied your thread to the PZ and then merged the 2 posts together. Yours took over the title, but hopefully all is ok.

Good luck today, everyone.

[Dexter]

thx The General

[peterpan19]

todays plays:

Orl -8, well Friday night and I take a heavy road fav, has sucker bet written all over, but seriously how can Was keep it close against that team ?? plus Orl is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU

Det -1.5, ok another road fav, but Tor is so bad and they have nothing to play for here ... on the other hand Det is getting better right now and they need every win they can get and they will win this one for sure, plus they played them twice this year and the last one was with AI, lets just hope Wallace plays ... have to place my bets early today so he better...

ATL -5.5
ATL is hot right now beating Utah, Det and NO at home and today come the lovely pacers into town who they are 4-1 ATS and SU against and they even blew them away in the last game they played and that was on the road in Indianapolis


NOH -3.5
I know 3rd road game for NOH and they didnt look that good after all, but its still Mil they play here today and dont forget mil almost got the win the last time they faced each other .... hell this would be my 3rd road fav on a friday night scary...


late game:
GS -1.5
GS is 5-0 SU and 7-1 ATS against Dallas at home, and I just cant imagine that dallas wins 3 games on the road in a row ... just wont happen today ... GS = cash at home

picks:
ORL -8
Det -1.5
ATL -5.5
NO -3.5 (maybe)
GS -1.5

ok only favs today

GL

edit:scratch that NOH game
I think I will give Bos 1st qtr and half a shot today .... ck just convinced me
but still like ATL, DET, GS and ORL today ...

[cocknocker]

CK,

some interesting stats that keep me away from the Boston game....

Memphis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a dog.
Memphis is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
In Boston's last 7 home games they are also 1-6 ATS.
The Grizzlies aways play the Celtics tough. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Memphis is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs.

51-37
46-47
68-58

That's the scores at the half in the last three first halves between these two teams (it has to be this way since the "Three Amigos" era began. In the one lone game that Boston didn't cover the first half Boston was in the final game of a 6 game West Coast trip. Memphis doesn't have that luxury working for them this time. Also Memphis had Pau Gasol and Mike Miller playing for them at that time, who are very talented players. Ray Allen only had two points in that game as well as he was battling the flu. Leon Powe had the same and was a DNP that game. The Grizzlies are in a bad spot facing the Celtics coming off of a loss in their last game. This one has blowout written all over it. Even Marbury's presence on the floor won't efect the outcome. The Grizzlies have mailed it in and have lost by 15 points on average in thei last 6 road games.

I am banking on Boston coming out and jumping all over the Grizzlies early and often. Good defense beats bad teams anyday

[SoonerGreg]

anyone taking Wash U +1 today ? Seems almost too easy for me, Wash U owned AZ State this year ??

and Wash is 9-1 SU against AZ state .....

I'm all over Washington. I'm a bit confused as to why they are getting points. I'm gonna look into it more to make sure no one got hurt in yesterdays dominating performance over Stanford. As of now I'm planning to play them.

[OperatorX]

im fading the public and taking Kentucky this morning with over 80% on Louisville.. the line feels like a trap to me.

[peterpan19]

I'm all over Washington. I'm a bit confused as to why they are getting points. I'm gonna look into it more to make sure no one got hurt in yesterdays dominating performance over Stanford. As of now I'm planning to play them.

excatly what I thought too, but couldnt find anything

but we still have some time left ...

[El Degeneroso]

CLEVELAND @ SACRAMENTO

Cleveland is on the final stop of a brutal stretch, where they have had 8 road games in their past 10, and the 2 home games were not consectutive, resulting in even more travel. Had a nice win last night, but had to use a lot of energy against a runnin and gunnin Suns team that played them close the whole night. Delonte and Lebron both got banged up pretty good, Lebron will in all likelihood play tonight, Delonte questionable with a back injury. After this Cleveland goes back home, where they'll play the next 8 out of 9, I just can't imagine they have their full legs under them tonight.

Polar opposite for Sacramento, this is their 7th home game of the past 8. They haven't played particularly well, save for a nice W over the Nuggets on Sunday. It should be noted, however, that in their past 7 home games, their losses have been by 5, 7, 7, 8, and 1 point(s). Tonights line is standing at 10 as I write. Martin probable tonight, obviously a no play if he sits.

Will also note that the Cavs are the team that I follow closest in the league, for the most part I feel like I have a pretty good pulse on how they are going. This game reminds me of a game about a month and a half ago, where the Cavs were coming off a tough W over Portland, then needed a Lebron buzzer beater to take out Golden State in Oakland. I would not be surprised at all if this is the case tonight (although GS is certainly a tougher home team than Sacto).

HEAVY LEAN on Sacto +10.

Today's college leans, no write ups now, will if I get a chance:

Ohio State ML
Xavier -4 1/2
Washington pick 'em
West Virginia -6

[Dexter]

great write up el degeneroso.

*va tech is actually the public's slight choice at 55%, and the line has moved down from 12.5 to 11. would like to play va tech, but not so sure with the public that way as well.

edit - down to 10.5

[repski]

great write up el degeneroso.

*va tech is actually the public's slight choice at 55%, and the line has moved down from 12.5 to 11. would like to play va tech, but not so sure with the public that way as well.

edit - down to 10.5

I'm rolling with Carolina -11...I think we see more focus today....

[BmoreBucco]

Virginia Tech is playing free and easy and aren't nearly as impressed by UNC as the public. 11 Is too many to give here.

Virginia Tech +11 (-110)

Michigan State is going to win by double digits, just like the other two tmes they have played.

Michigan State -7.5 (-110)

I expect the Hokies to play well today and if that happens, it all starts with this guy.

A.D. Vasallo over 18.5 points (-120)

[hockeytown11]

Is Lawson out?

[repski]

Booked 2 Team Parlay

NC -9.5
Mich St. -7.5

bet 250 to win 480

[Dexter]

line moved back up on carolina.
booked:
nc -11

[peterpan19]

mich state -7.5 for me early on only

later florida state -5

booked:
Orl -8
Det -1

hope that I will be back b4 the Bos games start to place my 1st qtr wager

GL everybody

[grappler145]

FYI lawson is out GL

[BmoreBucco]

Is Lawson out?

Yep

[repski]

anyone else think the Big Ten is going to get squashed like a bug in the Tourney??

[repski]

Yep

that would have been helpful 20 minutes ago...

[BmoreBucco]

that would have been helpful 20 minutes ago...

Didn't know 20 minutes ago

[Dexter]

line moved back up on carolina.
booked:
nc -11

booked nba-

magic -8
bobcats +1
hornets -5
warriors +1 (big)3x

[Casi]

Kings +11
Mavs +1.5 (booked earlier)

[The_Kid]

"Foye said he's "90 percent sure" he'll play Friday, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. probably more after being injured on Monday against Washington in the team's 10th consecutive loss.

Good stuff, pho3nix. I just saw that too. Good looking out and good luck today man.

3rd game in 3 days for w. virg as well. plus, these are 19 year old kids - not 27 year old pros. im prob gonna play it, but not as big as i had originally planned.

West Virginia should be more fresh. I hope Syracuse will wear down early. GL today, Dex.

[The_Kid]

Rajon Rondo, who has missed two games with a sprained right ankle and was previously ruled out for Friday's game against Memphis, said at the shootaround that he was going to play against the Grizzlies tonight. "I'm going to give it a go," Rondo said. Notice that this is coming from the player and not coach Doc Rivers, but it does sound like Rondo may go. Consider him a game-time decision for now.

Rasheed Wallace has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Raptors with a left calf injury, but is also iffy for Sunday against Memphis after saying there's no hurry to return to action. "I'm in no rush," Wallace said. "I'm taking it day to day...we'll see how it works out."

Lebron James, who briefly stayed on the floor with an apparent knee injury after a collision with Grant Hill on Thursday, said in a post-game interview that he would see how his leg felt Friday before determining his availability. He tweaked his knee again in the fourth quarter, but shook off the pain both times and played through it. LeBron said he planned to ice his legs and get treatment, and that he hoped to be able to go on Friday night. If he does play, he'll be looking for his fourth straight triple-double.

[Dexter]

kentucky pk

[repski]

kentucky pk

me2

[suckatmyjob]

over lsu/kentucky for me

[shoebox]

Hmm GS/DAL

Dallas is an average road team with an overachieving effort in Portland. Seems to me like public will pound Dallas with all there "research"on there recent win against port. However, port had a let down game agains Dallas after the laker game. Which means in theory and if my numbers are correct that GS wins by 7+ points. Need to due some more math......So far I like this angle

Hope you guys caught the game of the year last night between UCONN/SYR

[peetlui]

Milwaukee/New Orleans over 198
Since 1996 the over in this series is 27-17
The over is 4-1 in this series over the last 3 seasons
When played in Milwaukee since 1996 the over is 13-9
In Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons this series is 2-0 over
Recently when New Orleans is a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts. the over is 3-0 and when the total is set between 195 and 199.5 the over is 5-1
Recently when Milwaukee is a home dog of 3.5 to 6 pts. the over is 4-0 and when the total is set between 195 and 199.5 the over is 4-2

[The_Kid]

The OVER between the 76ers and Bulls is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. It is also 4-1 the last 5 times these two teams have met in Philly. Average totals have been set around 195 points but the average scores have totaled almost 206 points. The lines makers have made an adjustment to this total (194.5 vs 200.5) compared to the last time these two teams met in the beginning of December. Philly wants to play fast and Chicago is at its best in the open court with Derrick Rose running the show. I'm going to play the OVER 200.5 in this game.

[repski]

one thing I notice today is St. Mary's is playing an added game...against E.Washington from the Big Sky Conf.
no listed ML 1st half??

[The_Kid]

one thing I notice today is St. Mary's is playing an added game...against E.Washington from the Big Sky Conf.

Should be a good tune-up game for the Gaels. I assume they'll make it to the NCAA tournament. Remember the ended during the regular season. CK stated that in yesterday's thread I believe. Either way, I'd still go with St. Mary's in the 1H and for the full game. Good luck, repski.