NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

Is there anybody kind enough to tell me, of the 254 queries currently in the database, how many of them are active for today's two games? So far I have only picked up on one (NBA193)....

[emceeaye]

Also, correct me if my knowledge about z-scores are incorrect, but I assume z-scores above 2 is significant and z-scores above 3 are "very significant"...so that may be a way to filter the trends accordingly

In traditional stats, like you said, a z-score of 1.96 and higher is signficant with a .05 chance the results happened by chance; and a z-score of 2.58 or higher is signficant with a .01 chance the results happened by chance. Of course that only applies to the data if it's normally distributed. Normally, if you had the standard deviation and the mean, you could figure it out.

But in this context with this data I'm not sure if the z-score is calculated in that same traditional way, and therefore, the range of values and the significance level of values depending on sample size, will probably differ.. .might want to find out out how exactly z-scores are calculated in this context.

[Consigliere]

Nash thanks for the thoughts on ratings. Thats really helpful

I know some have a strategy of flat betting and that has been mine but the analysis is quite clear in my view that playing the pick by number of trends active for it is more profitable. Nearly 3x of you just straight played all ATS queries in the sheet this year with 1 unit per trend. This is also a much higher variability method so good bankroll management is key. Surprisingly there is very little extra value in playing trends where there is any contradiction. Like if it was 3 for team 1 and 1 for team 2 betting on team 1 is not much extra return. It also makes things simple in picking the plays. I've been workimg on excel to create seasonal models for nba ats using all the trends to optimize return and minimize risk and can probably share this within a week or two.

For those interested I have an excel took that automatically flags the trends and match ups. I originally thought maybe people would pay a small fee for it but there was no interest. I may just give away the basic one that just flags trends. My personal version pulls all historical data for the trends and presents it as well as the current season records. It's been quite helpful in miniMizing bad trends.

[nash13]

Nash thanks for the thoughts on ratings. Thats really helpful

I know some have a strategy of flat betting and that has been mine but the analysis is quite clear in my view that playing the pick by number of trends active for it is more profitable. Nearly 3x of you just straight played all ATS queries in the sheet this year with 1 unit per trend. This is also a much higher variability method so good bankroll management is key. Surprisingly there is very little extra value in playing trends where there is any contradiction. Like if it was 3 for team 1 and 1 for team 2 betting on team 1 is not much extra return. It also makes things simple in picking the plays. I've been workimg on excel to create seasonal models for nba ats using all the trends to optimize return and minimize risk and can probably share this within a week or two.

For those interested I have an excel took that automatically flags the trends and match ups. I originally thought maybe people would pay a small fee for it but there was no interest. I may just give away the basic one that just flags trends. My personal version pulls all historical data for the trends and presents it as well as the current season records. It's been quite helpful in miniMizing bad trends.

Great explanation, i would like to send you my analysis sheet, but i have no automatic play generating tool so far, only opening the sites in excel via web automatization.

secondly you only cover NBA right? i think there is a lot of value in NHL and MLB too.

[Consigliere]

Great explanation, i would like to send you my analysis sheet, but i have no automatic play generating tool so far, only opening the sites in excel via web automatization.

secondly you only cover NBA right? i think there is a lot of value in NHL and MLB too.

Nash, I'm developing it for NBA right now but I can port it over to cover anything in the future. Mods would need to be made because of the data structures but pretty simple once the base code is layed down. The seasonal models etc would be more difficult. The big body of work is the initial query setup for historical and current season. Once that is done the year to year updates are not too much. At the rate queries are being added though keeping up with the data is difficult. Currently I see no way of doing an NHL version for this season but I will definitely do an MLB version since the NBA tool should be completed by that time.

[Consigliere]

Is there anybody kind enough to tell me, of the 254 queries currently in the database, how many of them are active for today's two games? So far I have only picked up on one (NBA193)....

Sorry pip was busy today, but my filtered version of the ATS queries had 2 active for Phx and 1 for Det. Hit on both fronts...good day to start laying out 1 unit per trend!

[Cutler'sThumb]

Great explanation, i would like to send you my analysis sheet, but i have no automatic play generating tool so far, only opening the sites in excel via web automatization.

secondly you only cover NBA right? i think there is a lot of value in NHL and MLB too.

I've been spending a little more time on NHL, and I think there is definitely good value to be had there. I'm waiting to see how your demo works. If it can handle NHL well, hopefully we can play with the numbers and figure out the best way to handle those trends.
Thanks for the backtesting results for the NBA! Great info to have, and definitely makes me think it's time to reassess. I played for lots of volume early in the season and got stung, but it looks like it was just a matter of optimizing and sticking with it.

[pip2]

Sorry pip was busy today, but my filtered version of the ATS queries had 2 active for Phx and 1 for Det. Hit on both fronts...good day to start laying out 1 unit per trend!

Thanks consigliere. I found 2 queries, and I was worried I might be missing a bunch. I guess I missed one of the Phoenix queries...

[emceeaye]

The problem here is, that it is linked to a Excel extension i recentley bought. But if the development of the extern program works, there will be no need for that.

@all i updated the recet seasons NBA Results.

Overview:
All Picks with double plays and contradictions:
ALL: 973-762 (P:123,43 Y:7,11% SR:56,08%)
ATS: 617-479 (P:82,47 Y:7,52% SR:56,3%)
TOT: 356-283 (P:40,96 Y:6,41% SR:55,71%)

Without Contradictions (Double Plays allowed)
ALL: 616-415 (P:145,56 Y:14,12% SR:59,75%)
ATS: 389-267 (P:86,99 Y:13,26% SR:59,3%)
TOT: 227-148 (P:58,57 Y:15,62% SR:60,53%)

Single Plays only, Contradictions and Double Plays eliminated
ALL: 317-229 (P:59,47 Y:10,89% SR:58,06%)
ATS: 167-121 (P:30,97 Y:10,75% SR:57,99%)
TOT: 150-108 (P:28,5 Y:11,05% SR:58,14%)

My Own System (Double Plays allowed, Contradictions disallowed, Only 3-Star Plays)
ALL: 318-190 (P:99,38 Y:19,56% SR:62,60%)
ATS: 220-138 (P:62,2 Y:17,37% SR:61,45%)
TOT: 98-52 (P:37,18 Y:24,79% SR:65,33%)

Profit by month:
Oct: 0,55
Nov: 84,77
Dec: 10,40
Jan: 3,66

So take what you want from it, but I think taking a road along trusted plays pays out big time.
I will reconsider investing money in the program, since the demo will arrive end of the week.
It could save time. Focus on playing the games and switching the analysis to other sports (esp NHL and MLB aswell)

Nash, thank you for this extremely valuable summary/report!

Please forgive my ignorance but what exactly does the excel extension you are demoing do?

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 108-97-3 - 52.6% (+4.51) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-0 (+1.00)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 21-22-1 (-2.05)

2. pip2 - 22-19 (+1.85)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 10-17 (-7.98)

5. hyahya - 7-6-1 (+.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-16 (-2.60)

7. Heart - 10-1 (+8.92)

8. Consigliere - 13-8-1 (+4.50)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it

[nash13]

Nash, thank you for this extremely valuable summary/report!

Please forgive my ignorance but what exactly does the excel extension you are demoing do?

AbleBits: Ultimate Suite for Excel.
but i use it mostly for analyzing purposes. i created a macro in combination with that.

[emceeaye]

Error

[nash13]

Finished my NHL season to date analysis so far. I will write them in the NHL thread.

[nash13]

NHL Plays up to today updated

[Mako-SBR]

Nash and Consig, you guys are really adding a lot to the group, thanks again for your efforts and hard work, really impressive. At the rate its going I think we're going to see a uniform rating formula eventually agreed on, and then applied to all current and future queries in each of the major sports...which is fantastic.

Nice work.

Ton of plays today, my own Excel lit up like a Christmas tree, you can tell January is certainly here...let's get it all!

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL Best Bet

1/7/2014 - 1:00p PST

Play: OKC (-6.5) SAC -110

SDQL:
AF and p:margin<-15 and o:WP<=50 and 19<=game number<=68 and season>=2006

English:
Taking an away favorite that got demolished in its last game, but is now favored against a poor opponent, in the meat of the season. A get-well bounce-back game basically, in OKC's case it comes after being fed into the GS tree-chipper. BOL all!

[GSoro]

So I tried the "look ahead' query and got basically a coin flip in the results. Perhaps I'm doing it wrong (I am kinda new at this) or is this 'angle' just bs to begin with?

D and WP<40 and o:WP>60 and on:WP>60

I did the 'sandwich' angle too still basically a coin flip, and even making the line a double digit spread & I tried the dog coming off a loss wit the favorite off a win.....all still coin flips lol

But maybe I'm not coding it right? Any input or suggestions anyone?

[JMon]

So I tried the "look ahead' query and got basically a coin flip in the results. Perhaps I'm doing it wrong (I am kinda new at this) or is this 'angle' just bs to begin with?

D and WP<40 and o:WP>60 and on:WP>60

I did the 'sandwich' angle too still basically a coin flip, and even making the line a double digit spread & I tried the dog coming off a loss wit the favorite off a win.....all still coin flips lol

But maybe I'm not coding it right? Any input or suggestions anyone?

So you want to see how a losing dog does against a winning oppt and their next game is also against a winning oppt?

[JMon]

NBA SDQL Best Bet

1-7-15 4:45p CT

Play PHX -8.5 -110

SDQL: A and tA(points)>100 and tA(ooints)>100 and oA(ooints)>100 and -11<line<-7

Play on a road fav of 10-8 that averages over and give up over a 100/ game against an opt that give up over a 100/game</line<-7

[JMon]

Finished my NHL season to date analysis so far. I will write them in the NHL thread.

Is your analysis in both NBA and NHL year to date only? Have you back tested your rating system in previous years.? I would be curious to see how it does over the course the 3-5 years. Only asking simply as I have my own ways of using SDQL and been successful at it for the past 3 years, but I would like to compare to see if I need to make adjustments.

[nash13]

Is your analysis in both NBA and NHL year to date only? Have you back tested your rating system in previous years.? I would be curious to see how it does over the course the 3-5 years. Only asking simply as I have my own ways of using SDQL and been successful at it for the past 3 years, but I would like to compare to see if I need to make adjustments.

The main problem here is, that I need the full details on each game per query from that years. In fact i take them as they are displayed, copy them to excel and run formulas for duplication and contradictions, after that each query gets my rating from my own estimation sheet. hard workaround i know. if there is an automated extraction method, it would be a lot of easier. i know there are api's but i am not used to it.

[GSoro]

So you want to see how a losing dog does against a winning oppt and their next game is also against a winning oppt?

No I want to see how the losing dog does against the winning team who has to play a winning team on their next game. Or maybe I should say I want to see how a winning favorite does against the losing dog when the winning favorite has a winning team to play right after the losing dog. The whole "look ahead" angle. I'm guessing I didn't code it right lol...

[perryhs]

tA(o: points+points)>200 and game number>50 and WP<40 and p:W

[perryhs]

streak>=3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=13


streak>=3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin>=60 and A


streak<=-3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin>-12


streak<=-3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=-60 and D

[perryhs]

NCAABB

streak>=3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=13 and p:H


streak<=-3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=-60 and pooints>70

[JMon]

Here is a NCAAB for sharing..isolated showcasing Rider -1 tonight

AF and streak>=3 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<45 and o:rest<4

Play a winning team, road fav on a win streak against a losing opt that's on less than 4 days rest.

Also..note KS has ALL sports now!

This was active again and cashed.

[nash13]

NCAABB

streak>=3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=13 and p:H


streak<=-3 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<=-60 and pooints>70

just for the issues with smileys, if you want to reply or add a query, go to the "go advanced" button.
and a bit down there is a disable smiles in text mark.
if you check this box, there will be no smilies just text.

[JMon]

No I want to see how the losing dog does against the winning team who has to play a winning team on their next game. Or maybe I should say I want to see how a winning favorite does against the losing dog when the winning favorite has a winning team to play right after the losing dog. The whole "look ahead" angle. I'm guessing I didn't code it right lol...

I think this is what you are after. Not a big sample but check to see how HD do in this situation.

F and WP > 50 and o:WP < 50 and no:WP<50

[JMon]

just for the issues with smileys, if you want to reply or add a query, go to the "go advanced" button.
and a bit down there is a disable smiles in text mark.
if you check this box, there will be no smilies just text.

And Heart found out one can turn of the HTML when queries have a line parameter that starts with a favorite (or in other cases where the query gets broken up after posting). Works like a charm to avoid to have to put spaces in.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 108-99-3 - 52.1% (+2.31) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 0-2 (-2.20)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 21-23-1 (-3.15)

2. pip2 - 22-19 (+1.85)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 10-17 (-7.98)

5. hyahya - 7-6-1 (+.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-17 (-3.70)

7. Heart - 10-1 (+8.92)

8. Consigliere - 13-8-1 (+4.50)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it

[JMon]

The way I play sdql, mainly as a volume player...I'm finding it difficult to provide a Best Bet. For instance I went 3-1 last night and my sole loss was my Best Bet. Or after 193 plays this season Ive hit 55%, yet my best bets are 47%. Anyone having this problem? I know Ronald mentioned it earlier.

[nash13]

The way I play sdql, mainly as a volume player...I'm finding it difficult to provide a Best Bet. For instance I went 3-1 last night and my sole loss was my Best Bet. Or after 193 plays this season Ive hit 55%, yet my best bets are 47%. Anyone having this problem? I know Ronald mentioned it earlier.

It is a two sided sword, what gives us a reason to trust one query more than the other? i use mostly statistical points to measure the strength and weakness of a trend. but mostly there are inbetween factors like trades, line up changes and injuries.

[pip2]

The way I play sdql, mainly as a volume player...I'm finding it difficult to provide a Best Bet. For instance I went 3-1 last night and my sole loss was my Best Bet. Or after 193 plays this season Ive hit 55%, yet my best bets are 47%. Anyone having this problem? I know Ronald mentioned it earlier.

Maybe instead of "Bet of the Day" we should have "Bets of the Day"?

[Heart]

yeah i've been lucky with my best bets.. obviously all of my sdql plays i put in are not hitting above 90%

no best bet for me today again, nothing looks good.

[hyahya]

Maybe instead of "Bet of the Day" we should have "Bets of the Day"?

I agree with this. Post the plays you're making daily, would much better represent methodology and overall results.