NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**Heart** · 01-04-15, 11:33 AM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

play posted at 11:30am 1/4
Detroit Pistons -4 -106 vs Sacramento Kings

SDQL:
p:W and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3)<oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p

oints+p

oints in the paint/p

oints > .76 and op:margin>-2 and playoffs=0

English:
Play team coming off a win who has makes a lot of their points from 3's or points in the paint (i think this is the basic gist of this query... it's hitting at a smooth 65% though and I feel like Detroit is the better team anyway playing at home)

**JMon** · 01-04-15, 12:33 PM

Heart I am guessing your query did not copy correctly?

**hyahya** · 01-04-15, 12:57 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

play posted at 9:56am PT 1/4
Dallas Mavericks -7.5 -110 vs Cleveland Cavaliers

AF and line < -3 and line > -10 and Average(margin@team and season) >= 3 and p

oints > 104 and pp

oints > 104 and ppp

oints > 104 and rest=1 and WP > 64.1 and game number > 16

Play very good road favorite with a line larger than -10 with a point differential larger than 3 on the year with their offense rolling.

**Heart** · 01-04-15, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Heart I am guessing your query did not copy correctly?

You would be correct! Here it is.. i'll fix in the post above as well.
p:W and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3)<oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p

oints+p

oints in the paint/p

oints > .76 and op:margin>-2 and playoffs=0

I had to turn off HTML because it treated the < and > as an html tag

**JMon** · 01-04-15, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by Heart

You would be correct! Here it is.. i'll fix in the post above as well.
p:W and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3)<os(w) and="" p:tpm*3="" p

oints+p

oints in the paint/p

oints > .76 and op:margin>-2 and playoffs=0

I had to turn off HTML because it treated the < and > as an html tag

Good to know!

Thanks!

</os(w)>

**Heart** · 01-04-15, 03:45 PM

anyone use any ncaabb sdql trends? I've come up with a few queries that look promising but haven't tried them out yet.. mostly totals but you have to remember to get bets in closer to game time since they typically put out late totals on college bball. A bit of annoyance but I'm hoping there are wins to be mined in the ncaabb sdql world as well

**GSoro** · 01-04-15, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Heart

anyone use any ncaabb sdql trends? I've come up with a few queries that look promising but haven't tried them out yet.. mostly totals but you have to remember to get bets in closer to game time since they typically put out late totals on college bball. A bit of annoyance but I'm hoping there are wins to be mined in the ncaabb sdql world as well

I swear I was just coming in here to ask this very question...

**JMon** · 01-04-15, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Heart

anyone use any ncaabb sdql trends? I've come up with a few queries that look promising but haven't tried them out yet.. mostly totals but you have to remember to get bets in closer to game time since they typically put out late totals on college bball. A bit of annoyance but I'm hoping there are wins to be mined in the ncaabb sdql world as well

Yes, I have roughly a dozen or so. I even posted a total query in this thread. I normally don't look at NCAAB until Jan, just based off my personal betting patterns in the past. I have done quite will so far this year. I did go 1-2 yesterday, but it appears I will go 3-0 today.

Oh and I had the Mavs as a Best Bet, but forgot to post it..lol figures the way my Best Bets have been going this year...ugh.

**pip2** · 01-04-15, 05:08 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

1/4/15 10:05am pst Reduced Basketball 805 Sacramento Kings/Detroit Pistons Under 207½ -105*

SDQL:

H and rest in [1,2] and month in [10,11,12,1,2] and day in [Sunday,Thursday] and season > 2005 and (team in [Grizzlies,Cavaliers,Wizards,Bucks,Rocket s,Magic,Celtics,Heat,Pistons,Timberwolve s] or o:team in [Grizzlies,Cavaliers,Wizards,Bucks,Rocket s,Magic,Celtics,Heat,Pistons,Timberwolve s])

SDQL: English
Since 2005 on Sundays and Thursdays from October through February if the home team or its opponent is mem, cle, wsh, mil, hou, orl, bos, det, or mn, and the total is between 207 and 216, bet the under.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 01-04-15, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Yes, I have roughly a dozen or so. I even posted a total query in this thread. I normally don't look at NCAAB until Jan, just based off my personal betting patterns in the past. I have done quite will so far this year. I did go 1-2 yesterday, but it appears I will go 3-0 today.

Oh and I had the Mavs as a Best Bet, but forgot to post it..lol figures the way my Best Bets have been going this year...ugh.

I've also been looking at CBB trends. I think there is definitely an opportunity there as the sheer number of games lends itself to a statistical approach. I've already tagged several of the larger O/U trends on the spreadsheet that have shown consistent performance season to season. I'm not sure, but maybe the beta test caveat is for the smaller schools with difficult names to abbreviate. I'm not sure if it's worth a separate thread at this point, but anyone with solid trends feel free to post and/or add them to the spreadsheet.

**nash13** · 01-04-15, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by lion043090

Understood entirely. I would be more than happy to assist in any way. I currently have 10 bookmarked systems per sport that I could definitely share.

wrote you a personal message, but don't know if you are able to reply. need a valid email address to give access to the google document.

**lion043090** · 01-04-15, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by nash13

wrote you a personal message, but don't know if you are able to reply. need a valid email address to give access to the google document.

Thanks Nash. I cannot pm back yet bit my email address is threepointer24 @ g m a i l

Thank you and can't wait to contribute

**nash13** · 01-04-15, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by lion043090

Thanks Nash. I cannot pm back yet bit my email address is threepointer24 @ g m a i l

Thank you and can't wait to contribute

you are active, just look to the sheet, keep up the formatting rules, rest must be easy.
if there are any questions, feel free to ask.

**emceeaye** · 01-05-15, 04:51 PM

active again today:

Jazz 1st quarter -.5

p:M3 >0 and (D) and 0>p:margin>-3 and rest = 0 and WP<50 and o:WP<50 and 5>line>0

p:M3 >2 and (D) and 0>p:margin>-2 and rest = 0 and WP>o:WP and 5>line>0

day=Monday doesn't like it however...

average 1st quarter point differential not that impressive..

**Mako-SBR** · 01-05-15, 05:13 PM

NBA SDQL Best Bet

1/5/2014 - 2:00p PST

Play: CLE (-4) PHI -110

SDQL:
AF and p:margin<-15 and o:WP<=50 and 19<=game number<=68 and season>=2006

English:
Taking a team that just had its ass handed to it, but is now an away fav against a poor opponent, in the meat of the season. Works particularly well if the team has no rest and lost that previous game as a home dog, both of which apply to the Cavs today. Plus, who doesn't like betting against the 76ers with a low spread?

BOL all, let's get it in 2015!!!!

**JMon** · 01-05-15, 05:42 PM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 106-96-3 - 52.4% (+3.46) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 2-1 (+.95)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 19-22-1 (-4.20)

2. pip2 - 22-19 (+1.85)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 10-17 (-7.98)

5. hyahya - 7-6-1 (+.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-15 (-1.50)

7. Heart - 10-1 (+8.92)

8. Consigliere - 13-8-1 (+4.50)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it

**JMon** · 01-05-15, 05:48 PM

NBA SDQL Best Best

1-5-15 4:35a CT

Play Wash ML +115

SDQL: A and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(o

oints)>=98 and po

oints>=100 and ppo

oints>=100 and 2009<=season and line<8

Play a good off road team against a poor def team, after allowing 100+ points the last two.

**JMon** · 01-05-15, 06:21 PM

Here is a NCAAB for sharing..isolated showcasing Rider -1 tonight

AF and streak>=3 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<45 and o:rest<4

Play a winning team, road fav on a win streak against a losing opt that's on less than 4 days rest.

Also..note KS has ALL sports now!

**lion043090** · 01-05-15, 09:20 PM

The spreadsheet is great. So how is it best used by you all? Is there a way to open them all at once? Are all of the queries saved deemed as for sure plays? I am just trying to see how this thread uses the spreadsheet most effectively.

Thanks!

**JMon** · 01-05-15, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Here is a NCAAB for sharing..isolated showcasing Rider -1 tonight

AF and streak>=3 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<45 and o:rest<4

Play a winning team, road fav on a win streak against a losing opt that's on less than 4 days rest.

Also..note KS has ALL sports now!

Hope you guys were able to cash off this easy win

**nash13** · 01-05-15, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by lion043090

The spreadsheet is great. So how is it best used by you all? Is there a way to open them all at once? Are all of the queries saved deemed as for sure plays? I am just trying to see how this thread uses the spreadsheet most effectively.

Thanks!

There is no magic rule on using this. I use a VBA code in excel to open all trends at once.
After that it is up to you on which query you decide to play and which not.
I take other things beside queries into account too, line ups, line changes, importance of game, injuries etc.

I have an offer for a automated program which shows you every spreadsheet active daily. A demo version will be up soon i hope.

**griffey_mojo** · 01-06-15, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Hope you guys were able to cash off this easy win

Thanks JMon .... for me good NCAAB systems are hard to find ( or invent )

-Griff

**lion043090** · 01-06-15, 07:06 AM

Thanks Nash. I would be very interested in the code to open them all. I assume you have a code that can check YTD records for all queries together as well?

Thanks for all the work put into this from all involved.

Originally posted by nash13

There is no magic rule on using this. I use a VBA code in excel to open all trends at once.
After that it is up to you on which query you decide to play and which not.
I take other things beside queries into account too, line ups, line changes, importance of game, injuries etc.

I have an offer for a automated program which shows you every spreadsheet active daily. A demo version will be up soon i hope.

**JMon** · 01-06-15, 08:34 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 107-97-3 - 52.4% (+3.51) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-1 (+.05)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)

1. JMon - 20-22-1 (-3.05)

2. pip2 - 22-19 (+1.85)

3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)

4. Ronald S. - 10-17 (-7.98)

5. hyahya - 7-6-1 (+.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 15-16 (-2.60)

7. Heart - 10-1 (+8.92)

8. Consigliere - 13-8-1 (+4.50)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it

**JMon** · 01-06-15, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by griffey_mojo

Thanks JMon .... for me good NCAAB systems are hard to find ( or invent )

-Griff

**nash13** · 01-06-15, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by lion043090

Thanks Nash. I would be very interested in the code to open them all. I assume you have a code that can check YTD records for all queries together as well?

Thanks for all the work put into this from all involved.

The problem here is, that it is linked to a Excel extension i recentley bought. But if the development of the extern program works, there will be no need for that.

@all i updated the recet seasons NBA Results.

Overview:
All Picks with double plays and contradictions:
ALL: 973-762 (P:123,43 Y:7,11% SR:56,08%)
ATS: 617-479 (P:82,47 Y:7,52% SR:56,3%)
TOT: 356-283 (P:40,96 Y:6,41% SR:55,71%)

Without Contradictions (Double Plays allowed)
ALL: 616-415 (P:145,56 Y:14,12% SR:59,75%)
ATS: 389-267 (P:86,99 Y:13,26% SR:59,3%)
TOT: 227-148 (P:58,57 Y:15,62% SR:60,53%)

Single Plays only, Contradictions and Double Plays eliminated
ALL: 317-229 (P:59,47 Y:10,89% SR:58,06%)
ATS: 167-121 (P:30,97 Y:10,75% SR:57,99%)
TOT: 150-108 (P:28,5 Y:11,05% SR:58,14%)

My Own System (Double Plays allowed, Contradictions disallowed, Only 3-Star Plays)
ALL: 318-190 (P:99,38 Y:19,56% SR:62,60%)
ATS: 220-138 (P:62,2 Y:17,37% SR:61,45%)
TOT: 98-52 (P:37,18 Y:24,79% SR:65,33%)

Profit by month:
Oct: 0,55
Nov: 84,77
Dec: 10,40
Jan: 3,66

So take what you want from it, but I think taking a road along trusted plays pays out big time.
I will reconsider investing money in the program, since the demo will arrive end of the week.
It could save time. Focus on playing the games and switching the analysis to other sports (esp NHL and MLB aswell)

**nash13** · 01-06-15, 09:15 AM

I am trying to adjust the Sheet to calculations from the NBA to NHL.
If anyone could help: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post23342187

**hyahya** · 01-06-15, 11:39 AM

Nash, can you detail how you calculate your own rating? I know you've broken it down earlier in the thread but could you provide an example?

**lion043090** · 01-06-15, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by nash13

The problem here is, that it is linked to a Excel extension i recentley bought. But if the development of the extern program works, there will be no need for that.

@all i updated the recet seasons NBA Results.

Overview:
All Picks with double plays and contradictions:
ALL: 973-762 (P:123,43 Y:7,11% SR:56,08%)
ATS: 617-479 (P:82,47 Y:7,52% SR:56,3%)
TOT: 356-283 (P:40,96 Y:6,41% SR:55,71%)

Without Contradictions (Double Plays allowed)
ALL: 616-415 (P:145,56 Y:14,12% SR:59,75%)
ATS: 389-267 (P:86,99 Y:13,26% SR:59,3%)
TOT: 227-148 (P:58,57 Y:15,62% SR:60,53%)

Single Plays only, Contradictions and Double Plays eliminated
ALL: 317-229 (P:59,47 Y:10,89% SR:58,06%)
ATS: 167-121 (P:30,97 Y:10,75% SR:57,99%)
TOT: 150-108 (P:28,5 Y:11,05% SR:58,14%)

My Own System (Double Plays allowed, Contradictions disallowed, Only 3-Star Plays)
ALL: 318-190 (P:99,38 Y:19,56% SR:62,60%)
ATS: 220-138 (P:62,2 Y:17,37% SR:61,45%)
TOT: 98-52 (P:37,18 Y:24,79% SR:65,33%)

Profit by month:
Oct: 0,55
Nov: 84,77
Dec: 10,40
Jan: 3,66

So take what you want from it, but I think taking a road along trusted plays pays out big time.
I will reconsider investing money in the program, since the demo will arrive end of the week.
It could save time. Focus on playing the games and switching the analysis to other sports (esp NHL and MLB aswell)

Nash, thank you for taking the time to do this. I am very much in agreement about playing only 3-star rated trends (that is just how I would prefer my wagering...others may be different). So, will there be ratings on the other sports trends as well? I feel this would help streamline all trends for each sport, which would be great!

**lion043090** · 01-06-15, 11:49 AM

Here is a trend for today on the Suns:

Since 1995, Road favorites (no greater than -10.5 off of 3 or more straight games where they put up over 105 points now off of no rest (b2b) or 1 single day's rest are an incredibly massive 184-103 ATS. See SDQL below:

A and 0>line>-11 and p: points>=105 and pp: points>=105 and ppp: points>=105 and season>1995 and rest<2

**nash13** · 01-06-15, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Nash, can you detail how you calculate your own rating? I know you've broken it down earlier in the thread but could you provide an example?

I prefer to have a sports related rating system. Which means I treat every sport by its own queries and standards, the limits in the NBA does not apply to other sports and vice versa.
If i bet on Totals or ATS, i use z-score, percentage of years in profit since 2006, overall profit, last years profit, ROI%, last 3 years profit.
If i use SU, i leave z-score out.
So there are 5 or 6 main areas of evaluation. In each category for each sport i divide the queries in three groups. Best 33%, Middle 33% and Lowest 33%. Based on that they get 1 to 3 Points. In the end I calculate the Avg points for each query and in the end I take the best 33% Avg score wise. So let's say we have 270 NBA queries. This will leave us approx. 90 queries with 3 stars. The more queries we have the better in avg our results may be.

**JMon** · 01-06-15, 03:58 PM

NBA SDQL Best Bet

1-6-15 7:58a CT

Play: PHX -3.5 -110

A and line<=-2 and p:HW and pp:HW and WP>50 and o:WP>50 and 2006<=season

Play on a road fav of 2 or more off b2b home wins a winning team, playing a winning team.

**Heart** · 01-06-15, 05:35 PM

a few pointing to the Suns tonight

**lion043090** · 01-06-15, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by nash13

I prefer to have a sports related rating system. Which means I treat every sport by its own queries and standards, the limits in the NBA does not apply to other sports and vice versa.
If i bet on Totals or ATS, i use z-score, percentage of years in profit since 2006, overall profit, last years profit, ROI%, last 3 years profit.
If i use SU, i leave z-score out.
So there are 5 or 6 main areas of evaluation. In each category for each sport i divide the queries in three groups. Best 33%, Middle 33% and Lowest 33%. Based on that they get 1 to 3 Points. In the end I calculate the Avg points for each query and in the end I take the best 33% Avg score wise. So let's say we have 270 NBA queries. This will leave us approx. 90 queries with 3 stars. The more queries we have the better in avg our results may be.

Thanks for the clarification on your ratings. I don't suppose you would be able to provide ratings for each query? I can't imagine that it would be feasible to do that but just thought I would ask as your results in NBA on your 3 stars are staggering.

**lion043090** · 01-06-15, 06:15 PM

Also, correct me if my knowledge about z-scores are incorrect, but I assume z-scores above 2 is significant and z-scores above 3 are "very significant"...so that may be a way to filter the trends accordingly