The Daily Weather Report...Its BACK!

[Smacksmiter]

Bet Cleveland tonight at your own risk....



This happened in the Phoenix game yesterday...throw a knee injury in with this one too....

[Smacksmiter]

My selection for today is the Sacramento Kings +11 (-120) hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers...tough stretch of games on the road with the Cavs playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and LeBron and Delonte banged up...Delonte a probable scratch and Lebron maybe too..but even if he goes, the knee could stiffen up...I like the Kings in this spot to notch a cover and its not too much of a stretch to see an outright win here...might throw a bit on the ML...

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! Hope you hit this one over the rainbow!

[Smacksmiter]

Good Morning Weather fans and welcome to the Friday the 13th, 2009 edition of your Weather Report...The 13th wasn't too scary in the world of weather with positive high pressure dominating the massive 16 game slate producing a nice gain in units......lets get right to the numbers!

Ck went 9-7 with a +.95 units gained...cumulative totals now at 87-87-2 with -14.70 units lost...

I won with my selection of the Sacramento Kings who took the Cavs to OT and almost pulled off the outright win as predicted...1-0 on the night with +1.0 unit...cumulative total now at 12-13 and -2.80 units lost..

My first selection today will be the Miami Heat +2 (or more by game time) hosting the Utah Jazz...the Jazz are on the 4th game of a 5 game road trip while the Heat are settled in on a nice home stand having beaten the Celtics handily in their last game...take the points here for a winner

The weather has been 50/50 for sunny skies lately and that is reflected in the overall action...however, with the huge exposure in the weather action...wildfires are an ever present possibility so take care, friends!

[Smacksmiter]

This is your Intermediate Weather Report for Saturday, 3-14-09....nothing but the usual HOT and HEAVY action is to be expected today and let the chips fall where they may!

Lets get the early stuff going ....back with updates as needed...

NBA
Utah (Pk).................................... ........................................ ..Loser
Nuggets-9.5 (-170).................................... ............................Winner
Teaser: Minnesota +9...Houston +2.5...Denver -8.5...Phoenix -4...Charlotte +2...Loser
Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5 (-120).................................... ......Loser
Phoenix -2.5...1st qtr..................................... ..........................Loser
Phoenix -2...2nd qtr..................................... ............................Winner
Phoenix -4.5...1st half.................................... .........................Loser


Cbb
Memphis/Tulane over 120..................................... ...................Loser
Louisville -6 (-140).................................... ..............................Winner
Duke -6....................................... ........................................ ....Loser

[Smacksmiter]

My first selection today will be the Miami Heat +2 (or more by game time) hosting the Utah Jazz...the Jazz are on the 4th game of a 5 game road trip while the Heat are settled in on a nice home stand having beaten the Celtics handily in their last game...take the points here for a winner

Well...I enjoy a nice OT or 2 just like everyone...but it would be nice if the Heat can win this thing in the 3rd OT...I would like to get a little nap in this afternoon before the late games...

[Smacksmiter]

That's more like it...time for my nappie.......thanks Heat...er...Wade

[alamo]

SUPER JOB Smack ! Tailed you on that cliff hanger and what a comeback. Nice to be on the right side of a game like that

[cocknocker]

I have the Nuggets-9.5, Smacky. I bought 3 points. Get your facts straight.

I also added a BIG play on Duke-9, which you don't have listed as well

[Smacksmiter]

I have the Nuggets-9.5, Smacky. I bought 3 points. Get your facts straight.

I also added a BIG play on Duke-9, which you don't have listed as well

Sorry Sir...I was taking a brief respite and resting my weary bones...that Miami Heat win took a chunk out of me...

I saw your post about the 11 point free throw differential in the Miami/Utah game...interesting that the Heat won by that same 11 point differential...

[Smacksmiter]

A very rare event tonight with 2 additional selections ...

Charlotte Bobcats -5 (-120) visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves...Taking the Bobcats here vs the Horford-less Timberwolves as they should out class them and take home the money easily...

LA Clippers +15.5 (-170) visiting the Denver Nuggets...The Clippers have had a very light schedule in March playing only 4 games to this point...losing all 4...and the Cavs game with a horrible 4th quarter collapse...HOWEVER...I like the Clippers to keep it within the huge number here vs a Nuggets squad that has been unimpressive lately to say the least going 2-5 in March...buying the 3 points here as insurance but you might choose to take a bit less and still be ok...

Best of luck for this HUGE night of weather! Lets get em!

[Smacksmiter]

A short treatise on Wager Hedging...

Lets take the LA Clippers +12.5 tonight vs the Denver Nuggets...Your starting scenario is that you have taken the Nuggets for a $1100 to win $1000 wager at the -12.5. Now that's a piece of change, so you decide you want to hedge a bit on the Clippers winning the game outright...The Clippers are about +900 on the moneyline...so a $125 wager wins you +1125 should the Clippers win the game...So here is what you do

Denver -12.5 ... $1100 to win $1000 for the game...
Clippers MLine $125 to win $1125...

So now you have $1225 at risk...what are the possible scenarios?

1. Denver wins by 13 or more ... Win $1000...Lose $125...Net $875 Winner.
2. Clippers win the game..........Lose $1100...Win $1125...Net $25 Winner.
3. Clippers lose by anywhere from 1 to 12 points...Lose $1100...Lose $125...Net $1225 Loser.

So, what you have done here is basically given the books a 12 point "middle" opportunity on the game and put $1225 at risk to win $875 which is a 71% return on your wager...Let me tell you which side of this wager I would like to be on...and its not the one getting 71%...its the one with the 12 point middle opportunity...How many times do you think the 12 point middle hits? If the book has done their work right in setting the line, it will hit a very large majority of the time...well over the 60% mark...
And that is a number not to be ignored...

[Smacksmiter]

Final Score... LA Clippers 94...Denver Nuggets 107... a 13 point victory...and the line at close was the Clippers +12.5...So, if you hedged your wager as I discussed, in this case you squeaked out a nice $875 profit...congratulations...long term though, still give me the 12 point middle...

I guess Zach Randolph being out helped a bit...Nuggets rebounding advantage was 56-30 with a 17-5 advantage on the offensive glass...something to remember for the future...

[Smacksmiter]

Good Morning again SBR denizens! Welcome to your Weather Report for Saturday, 3-14-09! Rough night last night with bad weather on the left coast...lets get to the numbers...

Ck went 3-7 with a -4.70 units lost...cumulative totals now at 90-94-2 and -19.40 units lost...

I went 2-1 with +.80 units gained...cumulative record now at 14-14 and -2.00 units...

My first selection today is the LA Lakers -8.5 hosting the Dallas Mavericks...The Mavs have been playing better of late but now come into LA on the 4th game of a 4 game road trip after losing to the Warriors...Lakers home court takes care of business today.

Ahh...its a marathon, not a sprint...I heard that one time a long time ago...the Weather Report is nearing the 30 day mark and the golden numbers are finally coming into view...time will tell the final tale as the numbers march on...

Good luck today!

[Smacksmiter]

No rest for the weary as the Intermediate Weather Report is up and running...albeit a bit late today ...lets throw it up against the wall and see what sticks...

NBA
Philly -6(-130).................................... .............................Winner
Philly-2 1st quarter................................. ..........................Winner
Orlando-4 (-140).................................... ..........................Winner
Orlando-1.5 1st quarter................................. ...................Winner
Orlando -3...1st half.................................... .....................Winner
Milwaukee +4...2nd half.................................... ................Winner
Toronto-1 1st quarter................................. ......................Winner
NY Knicks +200 Moneyline 2nd half.................................... Winner
Sacramento -1.5 2nd half.................................... ..............Winner
Phoenix +120 Moneyline 2nd half.................................... ...Winner
NJ Nets -3...2nd half.................................... ......................Winner
JM PLAY+3

CBB
Duke-6 (-130).................................... ...............................Winner

NHL
Anaheim +105.................................... ...............................Loser


Teaser: Duke-3/ Philly-3.5/Orlando-1.5...............................Winner

Per usual...the JM play will not be counted as it is unnamed in the listing...

[Smacksmiter]

Adding a bonus selection for tonight after the Lakers let off the throttle on the Mavs to give up the cover......

I am taking the LA Clippers +2 hosting the New Jersey Nets...Zack Randolph is back from his father's funeral and the slumping Nets will not be able to notch a win in this spot vs the energized Clippers...take the points as a bonus or play the moneyline...good luck!

[Smacksmiter]

Adding a bonus selection for tonight after the Lakers let off the throttle on the Mavs to give up the cover......

I am taking the LA Clippers +2 hosting the New Jersey Nets...Zack Randolph is back from his father's funeral and the slumping Nets will not be able to notch a win in this spot vs the energized Clippers...take the points as a bonus or play the moneyline...good luck!

Now...THATS what I'm talking about ...lol...The Clippers win on a bomb 3 pointer as time expires....I will take it..

Btw..nice night Ck...13-1 doesn't come along too often...grats!

[cocknocker]

A short treatise on Wager Hedging...

Lets take the LA Clippers +12.5 tonight vs the Denver Nuggets...Your starting scenario is that you have taken the Nuggets for a $1100 to win $1000 wager at the -12.5. Now that's a piece of change, so you decide you want to hedge a bit on the Clippers winning the game outright...The Clippers are about +900 on the moneyline...so a $125 wager wins you +1125 should the Clippers win the game...So here is what you do

Denver -12.5 ... $1100 to win $1000 for the game...
Clippers MLine $125 to win $1125...

So now you have $1225 at risk...what are the possible scenarios?

1. Denver wins by 13 or more ... Win $1000...Lose $125...Net $875 Winner.
2. Clippers win the game..........Lose $1100...Win $1125...Net $25 Winner.
3. Clippers lose by anywhere from 1 to 12 points...Lose $1100...Lose $125...Net $1225 Loser.

So, what you have done here is basically given the books a 12 point "middle" opportunity on the game and put $1225 at risk to win $875 which is a 71% return on your wager...Let me tell you which side of this wager I would like to be on...and its not the one getting 71%...its the one with the 12 point middle opportunity...How many times do you think the 12 point middle hits? If the book has done their work right in setting the line, it will hit a very large majority of the time...well over the 60% mark...
And that is a number not to be ignored...

And another number not to be ignored is the $2400.00 I was given in sign up bonus money to put my money at the book. And another number that you are leaving out is the number of books I make the plays on (2). You also forgot that i will be pulling the money out and re-depositing it on Bet365 for a monster 35% on my money again, which means another lump sum for just placing my money there on top of the 2400 I already got on my money. Don' play with me Smacky, and secondly don't speak on subjects you know nothing of (speaking of how I manage my money). You lost 18k following your OWN money management theory. And nowyou all of a sudden know the ins and outs of my management. Banks make millions off of people doing wht I do by moving my money around and collecting the percentages. I make just enough plays to satisfy the requirement for receiving the bonus and then I wothdraw it and use it again between three reputed books. Seems that you forgot that littel detail since you seem to know how I work with money. Stop trying to slander me speaking about things you know nothing about.

Only an idiot would hedge one's self on the same book. So your explanation was WAY off as usual. Stick to keeping the record and

[Smacksmiter]

And another number not to be ignored is the $2400.00 I was given in sign up bonus money to put my money at the book. And another number that you are leaving out is the number of books I make the plays on (2). You also forgot that i will be pulling the money out and re-depositing it on Bet365 for a monster 35% on my money again, which means another lump sum for just placing my money there on top of the 2400 I already got on my money. Don' play with me Smacky, and secondly don't speak on subjects you know nothing of (speaking of how I manage my money). You lost 18k following your OWN money management theory. And nowyou all of a sudden know the ins and outs of my management. Banks make millions off of people doing wht I do by moving my money around and collecting the percentages. I make just enough plays to satisfy the requirement for receiving the bonus and then I wothdraw it and use it again between three reputed books. Seems that you forgot that littel detail since you seem to know how I work with money. Stop trying to slander me speaking about things you know nothing about.

Only an idiot would hedge one's self on the same book. So your explanation was WAY off as usual. Stick to keeping the record and

...and? and????... I hate it when they leave me hanging...
anyways...congrats again on your nice 13-1 night bud...

[Smacksmiter]

Good Morning SBR! Welcome to your Weather Report for Sunday, 3-15-09...STUNNING weather is all one can say regarding California yesterday...never before in the history of the Weather Report has the weather been so perfect, so sublime...almost the "Perfect Storm" of high pressure, sunshine, 72 degrees, 30% humidity...the list of superlatives goes on and on....lets get to the amazing numbers...

Ck went 13-1 on posted selections with a +13.0 units gained...cumulative totals now stand at 103-95-2 and -6.40 units lost..

I went 1-1 on my selections with -.10 unit lost...cumulative totals now stand at 15-15 and -2.10 units lost...

My selection for today is the Houston Rockets +4 at the New Orleans Hornets...The Hornets 1st game back after a long road trip and the Rockets improved play make the points very attractive here and I will take them...

What can one say when the weather performs so well? Well...one could say a blind squirrel found a nut, but we prefer to give credit where credit is due and just say...nice job, keep it up! We hope and pray the severe weather swings are gone for good but somehow the history of weather shows us that volatility will come again...lets watch and see how it goes...

[Smacksmiter]

Well...the line in the NJ Nets/Denver Nuggets game has just gotten out of control...sure, they could lose by more than 13...but that is a boatload of points for a sorry assed Nugget squad to cover...even at home...

I will take the bait...Adding the New Jersey Nets +14 (-130) and we shall see how it goes...I'm thinking there are some pissed off campers in the Nets camp...not worried at all about Devon Harris...

[Smacksmiter]

Good Afternoon and this is your Intermediate Weather Report...it has been reported that the weather will be light today...however...I will believe that when I see it......as we all know, a heavy squall can blow in at anytime...lets see whats on the barbie this evening...

NBA
Houston+6.5 (-120).................................... ...Winner
Houston++200 Money line..............................Winner
Houston+.5 1st quarter................................. ..Winner

Short and sweet so far...lets see if it stays that way...

[cocknocker]

I have been waiting and I have

Houston at +6.5
Houston+200 moneyline
Houston+1.5 1st quarter

[Smacksmiter]

Where did you place those bets at Ck? I'm having a hard time finding those lines...

[cocknocker]

Greek.com

I bought a hook on the game spread. It was at +6 by gametime

[Smacksmiter]

Ah..I see...

[Smacksmiter]

Good Morning SBR and welcome to the Weather Report for Monday, 3-16-09...perfection in the weather rarely comes often...much less near perfection for 2 days in a row...but such is the case in the Golden State once again today...lets take a look...

Ck went 3-0 with +4.0 units gained...cumulative totals now at 107-95-2 and -2.40 units lost...

I went 1-1 on my selections and -.30 units lost...cumulative totals now at 16-16 and -2.40 units lost...

My first selection this evening is the Sacramento Kings +12 visiting the Atlanta Hawks...The Kings have been playing well and keeping games close of late...look for more of the same tonight with the generous number, take the points...

Very impressive weather once again with the units close to turning positive...well done!

Good luck tonight!

[Smacksmiter]

Good Evening and this is your Intermediate Weather Report...the weather has been very nice lately as spring has settled into the Bay area with lovely high pressure and light fluffy clouds...lets see what the weather brings for tonight, shall we?

Warriors-1.5..................................... .............................Winner
Boston-.5 1st quarter................................. ....................Loser
Cleveland/Orlando under 95 1st half.................................Los er
Cleveland-3 1st half.................................... .....................Push
Clevalnd-5.5 (-120).................................... .....................Loser
Boston 3rd qtr PK...................................... .......................Push
Detroit 3rd qtr PK...................................... .......................Loser
San Antonio 3rd qtr -3....................................... ...............Winner
GS Warriors 2nd half +.5 ........................................ .........Loser
Philladelphia 2nd half +6.5 ........................................ ......Winner

Parlay 3rd qtrs: Boston Pk, Detroit Pk, Spurs -3.................Loser

JM(A) Heavy
JM(A) Heavy
And teasing both JM plays as well...all 3 of these plays won but are not counted in the record as they are unnamed selections.

CBB
Rhode Island+4.5.............................. .............................Winner
Rhode Island+165 moneyline............................... ............Winner

Updates as needed per usual...

[Smacksmiter]

Bonus Selections for tonight! For my first selection I will be taking the ...

Washington Wizards +16 (-120) visiting the Utah Jazz...the Jazz are a bit beat up and the Wiz will sneak up on them for the cover tonight...

Also...

I can't help myself...got to like the Golden State Warriors -3 hosting the LA Clippers...big bounce back game for the Warriors after that Phoenix drubbing and the Clippers fit the bill perfectly...Should be a nice 10+ point win here...

Good luck tonight!

[cocknocker]

You missed the 3rd quarters and 3rd quarter parlay as well as the 2 plays on the Warriors 2nd half and the Sixers second half. The JM's don't count, homes. Wake up

[Smacksmiter]

Good Morning yet once again SBR! Here is your Tuesday, 3-17-09 Weather Report! A slight turn for the worse in the weather as the hidden precipitation could not be accounted for in the forecast...sounds strange...but true...lets get to the numbers...

Ck went 5-6-2 on posted plays with a -1.6 units lost...cumulative totals now at 112-101-4 and units at -4.00 lost..

I went 2-1 on my selections and +.90 units gained...cumulative totals now at 18-17 with units at -1.50...

The JM plays also came through for Ck, however, they are not counted in the record as they are not listed by name...as usual....

Back later with updates and selections...good luck today!

[cocknocker]

I had 5 wins yesterday Smacky

Warriors-1.5 Win
San Antonio-3 3rd quarter Win
Philadelphia +6.5 2nd half Win
Rhode Island +4.5 Win
Rhode Island+165 Moneyline Win


So that's 5-5-2, not 3-5-2 as you allege. Get your facts straight

[Smacksmiter]

I had 5 wins yesterday Smacky

Warriors-1.5 Win
San Antonio-3 3rd quarter Win
Philadelphia +6.5 2nd half Win
Rhode Island +4.5 Win
Rhode Island+165 Moneyline Win


So that's 5-5-2, not 3-5-2 as you allege. Get your facts straight

Thank you once again, Sir...I was moving to another sheet on my tracking form and missed your 2 CBB wins..although you did have 6 losses on the day...I think you missed counting your parlay as a loss...record has been corrected up above..

[Smacksmiter]

Good evening all and welcome to the Intermediate Weather Report for this evening...should be a VERY busy evening in Weather as I hear a big blustery has rolled into Reno... ...so lookout Nevada...hot and heavy action has arrived...lets see whats on the agenda for tonight...

NBA
Orlando-1.5 1st quarter................................. ................Winner
Rockets-8 (-130).................................... .......................Loser
Knicks team total over 110.5................................... ........Loser
Knicks-6 (-130).................................... .........................Loser

CBB

Richmond-4 (-130).................................... ..............Winner
Tennessee-Martin+330 moneyline 1st half...................Loser
Tennessee-Martin/Auburn over 68.5 1st half...............Winner
Tennessee-Martin/Auburn over 146 game...................Winner
Tennessee-Martin+12.5 (-120)..................................Wi nner
Tennessee-Martin+650 moneyline..............................L oser
Tulsa-4 (-130).................................... .......................Winner

TEASER:Winner......paid 3:1
Richmond-1
Tenn-Martin+16.5
Tenn-Martin/Auburn over 142
Tulsa-1

Clippers/Wizards over 204 Win
Bucks-4 2nd half Push
Grizzlies+7 2nd half Loss
Tulsa-5 2nd half Win

The weather is "feeling its oats" as it wanders into Reno...lets hope the mudslides don't start flying around town...Reno is too pretty for that ...

Updates as needed....

[Smacksmiter]

My selections for tonight..

Taking the Washington Wizards +7 visiting the LA Clippers...HUH??...The Clips are favored by 7 points ??... Ooook...I will take the points here...nuff said...

Also taking the Memphis Grizzlies at the +7 home dog...they are a scrappy team lately and the Nuggets...well, not so much ..especially on the road...

Good luck tonight!

[cocknocker]

Smacky,

I also had

Clippers/Wizards over 204 Win
Bucks-4 2nd half Push
Grizzlies+7 2nd half Loss
Tulsa-5 2nd half Win

Check entry #198, 202, 245 by Dexter on my thread from Wednesday